Here we go folks. Quite possibly the best weekend of the football season is here, conference championship Sunday is just around the corner. Today’s “No Huddle” will be breaking down both games and I’ll be giving you my picks. So let’s set the stage before we dive into these games.

There is a ton of numbers being thrown around in the media in the lead up to Sunday. The one set of numbers jumped out to me are the records of the favorites from the past two seasons. In the past two seasons, the betting favorites in the conference championship games are 4-0 straight up, and 3-1 against the spread. I know it’s a small sample size but it’s a trend worth being cognizant of as we head into the weekend. Another number worth knowing is the record of betting favorites this postseason. So far in the playoffs, the betting favorites are 6-2 straight up and against the spread (Dallas and Kansas City broke the undefeated run of the favorites.

Now, you are probably wondering why I’m using these numbers before we get into the breakdowns. Well at this stage of the season, recognizing these trends are worth knowing, especially if you are planning to throw a little money down on these games. I’m not saying that these will dictate how these games will pan out but there is always value in knowledge.

In terms of the actual matchups, I’m very excited for both of these games. This is potentially one of the best groups of quarterbacks to square off in the conference title games. The combined quarterback rating of Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, and Roethlisberger currently sits at 107.0, which is easily one of the best aggregate ratings in postseason history.

We also have two different types of trends working against each other heading into this weekend. I’ve noted a few times during the latter half of the season that teams with a first round bye have won the Super Bowl 18 out of 26 times since the NFL went to the current playoff format. That certainly bodes well for the chances of New England and Atlanta based on the historical numbers.

The second trend is the winning streaks of the underdogs. Much is made in any postseason about the threat of a team getting hot at the right time. Pittsburgh is currently riding a nine-game winning streak, while Green Bay is on an eight-game streak of its own. Both teams have been playing playoff-type games for almost two months and have found a formula to keep reeling off wins.

I’ve been on a bit of a run with my picks since the beginning of the postseason. I’m 7-1 with my game picks and 6-2 against the spread, aided by my 4-0 week across the board last week. It should be one hell of a day on Sunday for these games, so lets jump into the breakdowns.

NFC Championship: Green Bay vs. Atlanta (Sun. 3:05 PM, FOX)

We’re getting started with a bang on Sunday with two of the best offenses in football squaring off. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are likely going to be the top-two in MVP voting, which should make for quite a quarterback duel. Both men have pretty juicy matchups to exploit with the opposing defenses as well.

Ryan and the Atlanta offense is the number one rated offense in the NFL, putting up over 30 points per game this season. The Falcons are coming off a game in which they shredded the vaunted, but shorthanded Legion of Boom from Seattle. Confidence is at an all time high in Atlanta with the way this offense can operate. Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel present all sorts of challenges in the secondary for opposing defenses. Add into the mix the receiving abilities of running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman and it’s very easy to see why this offense has been so lethal all year long.

Green Bay will have its hands full trying to slow down this prolific offense. The Packers have the 31^st ranked pass defense in the NFL, so it’s not too hard to see where Atlanta will look to attack. They will have to get after Matt Ryan and keep him from getting the ball out to his weapons on the outside. Green Bay is capable of doing that with Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, and Julius Peppers. It will be interesting to see what Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers will cook up for the Falcons offense.

Obviously the Packers aren’t slouches on the offensive end either. Rodgers currently leading the fourth ranked offense in the NFL, and in recent weeks you could make the argument that this is the second-best offense compared to Atlanta. The run that Rodgers is on right now is incredible, and dare I say, historic. He has only thrown one interception in his last ten games (both last week), and has racked up 24 touchdowns during this stretch.

The issue for the Packers right now on offense is health, especially at wide receiver. Jordy Nelson is dealing with broken ribs, and could miss his second straight game. Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison are also banged up but are more likely to play that Nelson as of now. Missing Nelson certainly takes away some of the punch of this offense but with the way Rodgers is playing, as long as he has Randall Cobb, Adams, and Allison he should be okay. The tight ends will definitely be an integral part of the offense again, Richard Rodgers and Jared Cook saw an uptick in their production last week due in part to the Nelson injury.

If Atlanta has any chance of slowing down the red-hot Rodgers, a big key will be the play of Vic Beasley. He has the talent to be a Von Miller-type playmaker on defense, but this is the game where he will need to prove it. As we have seen over and over again with Green Bay, if Rodgers has time to throw, he will make defenses pay dearly. Without their shutdown corner Desmond Trufant, who was placed on injured reserve in late November, the pressure will be on the pass rushers to make a big difference in this game.

Vegas odds makers seem to think this will be a high scoring affair, as do I. The over/under is sitting at 61 points, which is the highest number for a playoff game in at least five years. Definitely be ready for a shootout between these two teams similar to the 33-32 thriller back in October. In my opinion I think this game is a toss up. As good as the Falcons have been all season, I’m finding it pretty hard to count out Rodgers. Sit back and enjoy the ride for this one.

Game Pick: Atlanta              ATS Pick: Green Bay (+5.5)

 AFC Championship: Pittsburgh vs. New England (Sun. 6:40 PM, CBS)

Over on the AFC side, we have a battle of the old guard between New England and Pittsburgh. If there is one prediction I was spot on about back in August, it was that these two teams would be meeting in the AFC Championship game (probably the only one).

Now there is a key matchup here to keep an eye on because this will likely dictate how this game will play out. Pittsburgh has a vaunted offense in terms of the talent with the Killer B’s (Big Ben, Brown, and Bell), but last week was a bit forgettable. Pittsburgh absolutely has to convert redzone opportunities into touchdowns this week. Chris Boswell kicking more than three field goals will likely mean the Steelers will be sent home packing.

Scoring in the redzone against New England will be no easy task either. The Patriots bend but usually don’t break down by the goal line. New England has the top-ranked scoring defense in the NFL, allowing only 15.6 points per game. Even more impressive is the percentage of opposing drives that end in an offensive score. New England only allows points on 26.7 percent of opponent possessions, which averages out to 1.37 points per drive.

Look for Pittsburgh to lean on Le’Veon Bell to fix the redzone issue. He has amassed a gaudy 332 yards rushing in two playoff games, both of which he has set a franchise record for single-game rushing in a postseason game. Pittsburgh will have to get creative with how they get Bell the ball in clutch situations, but as I’ve said all season, he is the key to this offense.

Big Ben will also need to protect the football much better than he did last week, and in his career against New England. Roethlisberger has throw six interceptions in eight games against the Patriots (3-5 in his career against New England). In his four conference championship games, Roethlisberger is 3-1, but has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions.

For New England, Tom Brady will look to continue the incredible success he has had against the Steelers. In nine games against Pittsburgh, Brady is 7-2 in his career, throwing for 24 touchdowns and three interceptions. You don’t have to look too far to figure out what Pittsburgh’s defense will need to do to beat New England. Obviously they will need to flip that script to have a shot to win this game, which is easier said than done.

Bud Dupree is the guy I’m looking at for Pittsburgh on defense. He will need to wreak havoc on the Pats offensive line and get pressure on Brady. Pittsburgh will need to draw up a few exotic blitzes in order to free up Dupree on the edge. The one common denominator in New England’s playoff losses is the amount of pressure Brady faces. The Giants and more recently, the Broncos have shown that there is a blueprint to keep Brady off-balance in the pocket.

I think points could be at a premium in this game with two very familiar opponents facing off in a game of this magnitude. Right now I would have to give a slight edge to New England since this game is in Foxborough.

Game Pick: New England               ATS Pick: Pittsburgh (+6)

That’s it for me today, I’ll be back on Monday to recap the weekend in the sports world. Enjoy the games this weekend, it should be a lot of fun to watch. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

“Heat Check” is finally back! This time for good, as this will be a weekly column talking about the best in the NBA, and the occasional college basketball post. I’ll keep regular power rankings of the top teams in the Association, but I do want to have a keen eye on some of the more interesting developments during the year.

Which brings me to a grassroots movement from the City of Brotherly Love. Yes, the Philadelphia 76ers are finally becoming relevant after three long years of doing everything possible to put together the worst possible roster. A more simple term for this is “tanking,” but no matter what you call it, the Sixers became the laughingstock of the league for trying to lose in the short term to win in the long term.

Last night’s 94-89 victory over the Toronto Raptors was the first fruit in a three year stretch marked by attrition and cautiously optimistic patience. It was the first signature win for those that have learned to “Trust the Process.” That mantra is the only thing that Sixers fans have had to bring them solace following three years of tanking. Hearing that mantra chanted over and over as Joel Embiid securing a win for Philly over Toronto, you could feel that things are starting to change for the Sixers. If you were in the building, you couldn’t help but get wrapped up in the growing confidence of this young team that is evolving right before your eyes.

When former general manager Sam Hinkie started what would now become known as “The Process,” no one really knew what to expect. A draft night trade three and a half years ago kickstarted the rebuild, and sent a clear message to the fans. No more mediocrity. Hinkie realized that in the NBA, toiling away in the middle of the pack is never going to bring you a championship. You needed to put together a core of All-Star caliber players and free agency isn’t a surefire way of getting it done (Knicks fans can certainly agree there). Analytically, he surmised that the best way to get those elite-level talents was to tear down the roster and build through the draft. Hinkie decided to play the odds and use the Draft Lottery to acquire those top talents.

That meant a great deal of patience would be required from the ownership group. It also meant Philadelphia fans couldn’t call for the jobs of the men in charge for once in the storied history of the sporting city. Hinkie and his hand picked coach Brett Brown were going to need time to, literally, build a winner.

So trading away 23-year old point guard Jrue Holiday, who was coming off of his first All-Star season, for a 19-year old center recovering from a torn ACL signaled that this was a long-term rebuild. Nerlens Noel was that first piece of “The Process,” but also set a precedent for the type of player that the Sixers were willing to go after, especially when they didn’t have the top pick in the draft. Philadelphia was willing to wait for an elite level talent to get healthy, or finally get to the league.

That precedent would net the Sixers two franchise cornerstones following a 19-63 season in 2013-14. Philadelphia used the third pick to select center Joel Embiid out of Kansas, who was recovering from a stress fracture in his back. Then the Sixers would make a trade with Orlando to acquire the rights to a Croatian forward playing in Turkey, named Dario Saric. Two years, a multitude of roster moves, a 13-page resignation letter, and a regime change went by before Philadelphia would see either of these two suit up.

Boy, was it worth the wait. Embiid is going to be the, possibly unanimous, Rookie of the Year, and quickly becoming a superstar before everyone’s eyes (more on him a little later). Saric came to the US with a Euroleague Rookie of the Year and MVP already in his trophy case, but was still an unknown similar to his draft mate Embiid. He is flashing a toughness and skill that will make him a valuable piece to the championship team that Bryan Colangelo is now tasked to put together from the Hinkie puzzle pieces.

The rock that Colangelo will build that team on though is Embiid. He is a human highlight reel on both ends of the floor. He is an elite talent on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor with ridiculous athleticism for someone of his size. The 7’2” center is capable of handling the ball like a guard and has the shooting range of a small forward. Oh, he can still bang in the blocks like a traditional big man too.

Sixers’ defensive rating w/ Embiid = No. 1 in NBA.
Sixers’ defensive rating w/o Embiid = No. 25 in NBA. pic.twitter.com/v6p8HHr5ss

— Ben Golliver (@BenGolliver) January 19, 2017

Embiid is the physical embodiment of “The Process,” which has now become his nickname. Philly is still bringing him along by methodically limiting his minutes. The back issue from college healed, but a fracture in his foot is the real concern. The Sixers want “JoJo” to be the next Hakeem Olajuwan, and not the next Sam Bowie or Greg Oden.

So far so good for Embiid in his long awaited rookie season. Embiid’s 19.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, and 2.4 BPG are comparable to the rookie numbers of the Hall of Famer Olajuwan. “The Dream” has even taken notice of the tour-de-force that Embiid is becoming in the league. The craziest thing about these numbers for the rookie sensation is that he is only averaging 25 minutes per game and doesn’t play in both games during back-to-backs.

The run that Embiid has put together during his last ten games is historic. He is the first player in NBA history to have ten consecutive games of 20+ points while playing less than 30 minutes per game. Embiid is also the first Sixers rookie to have 20+ points in ten consecutive games since Allen Iverson (which was an eleven game streak). “The Process” is even working on a streak of ten games with 20+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 1+ blocks as a rookie. The only players who have longer streaks during their rookie campaigns were Patrick Ewing and Tim Duncan, who both notched twelve games in a row with those numbers.

That is some serious company that Embiid has found himself in during the best stretch of games for Philadelphia since well before “Trust the Process” became a thing. There is hope in Philadelphia for the first time in a long while, and the long-term outlook is even more plentiful. Ben Simmons, the top pick in last year’s draft, hasn’t even suited up yet due to a foot fracture he suffered during the final practice of training camp. Simmons has drawn comparisons to a young Lebron James and was the coveted talent that the Sixers have fawned for over the past three years. That was before they knew what they had in Embiid. So now that empty cupboard of three years ago is looking packed to the gills with talent. It doesn’t stop there either.

Philadelphia has a top-three protected pick from the Lakers that could finally be coming its way this season. In addition, should Embiid lead the Sixers into the playoffs like he believes he can, the team has the right to swap first round picks with Sacramento in the draft (the final move of the Hinkie era). The 2017 draft is being talked about as one of the best in over a decade, and Philadelphia has the opportunity to have two lottery picks.

Trusting the process has certainly paid dividends after years of toiling away in the bottom of the NBA by design. After last night, the trust Sixers fans have put in this franchise during this rebuild turned into a belief that this team is building towards a championship down the road. It is a dream that is starting to take shape into a reality.

Power Rankings for 1/19/17

 (1) Golden State Warriors (36-6)

No surprises here, Golden State continues its regular season dominance of the NBA even with its upgraded roster. Kevin Durant dropped 40 points in last night’s drubbing of Oklahoma City, which was arguably his best game as a Warrior. After blowing out Cleveland on Monday night, the Warriors now can focus on securing the top seed in the West after the All-Star break. They currently hold a three and a half game cushion on San Antonio. Golden State won’t be breaking its wins record this season but things are starting to gel for the offensive juggernaut from the bay area.

(2) San Antonio Spurs (32-9)

The biggest threat to Golden State isn’t the Cleveland Cavaliers; it’s the team that could prevent them from meeting the Cavs for a NBA Finals rubber match. Quiet as usual, the Spurs have the second-best record in the NBA in the first year of the post-Duncan era. Kawhi Leonard is now the leader of this ball club and his improvement in his offensive game has been a pleasant surprise. Everyone already knows about the defensive prowess of “The Claw,” but now with his offensive skill set catching up he could develop into one of the best “closers” in the NBA.

(3) Cleveland Cavaliers (29-11)

Coming in at the third spot in my midseason rankings are the defending NBA champions. They are going through its usual midseason swoon right now (6-4 in the last ten games), but that is to be expected at this point with the Cavs. It takes Cleveland time to find its postseason form, and the recent acquisition of sharpshooter Kyle Korver is another variable to work into the makeup of this team. They are still the best team in the East and find themselves in a good position to defend the NBA championship in June.

(4) Houston Rockets (33-12)

Easily the surprise of the season has been the vast improvement of the Rockets under coach Mike D’Antoni. James Harden is making a strong case to win his first MVP award, which has been due to his improvement as a point guard on both ends. Defensively, he will have some issues here and there, but he is far from the liability he had been in recent years. Outside of Russell Westbrook, there may be no one playing better on the offensive end than Harden. “The Beard” has accounted (scored or assisted) for 50% of Houston’s points this season, which would be an NBA record should that number hold by season’s end.

(5) Toronto Raptors (28-14)

 The combination of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are one of the best backcourt duos in the league. They have Toronto sitting as the second-best team in the East and two games behind Cleveland. Lowry and DeRozan are a large part of how the Raptors are currently the top scoring team in the East, and third in the league (111.0 PPG). Last night’s loss to Philadelphia will hurt its national credibility but it was only the first loss to an Atlantic Division opponent all season. However, there is still a sizable gap between them and Cleveland once playoff time rolls around.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “No Huddle” to break down the conference championship games and give my picks for the weekend. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Wow! What a weekend in the NFL. Between my other responsibilities over at SNJ Today it took me a little bit to catch up on all of the action from the weekend. Luckily I had the extra day to get myself up to date, just in time to write today’s “Weekend Recap.”

Obviously this is going to be a more NFL-centric recap since, well, you know, the playoffs. I will give my thoughts on last night’s clash between Cleveland and Golden State in the NBA. For now though I’ll go game by game and give my two cents on the weekend in the NFL. I’m feeling pretty good after going 4-0 with my game picks and my picks against the spread so I’ll be a little more jovial while writing these.

Atlanta Throttles the Legion of Boom

The Divisional round of the playoffs started with a literal bang. Atlanta silenced some serious doubters on Saturday by bringing Seattle’s rollercoaster season to a screeching halt, 36-20. Matt Ryan threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in another MVP-type performance.

Seattle had the right start, jumping out to a 7-0 lead in a low scoring first quarter. However, everything changed with Seattle up 10-7 in the second quarter. Backed up near its own endzone, Seattle needed to produce a drive. Atlanta’s defense had other ideas, stopping Thomas Rawls for a three-yard loss on first down. On the next play, Russell Wilson tripped over his center’s foot, falling into the endzone, and Ben Garland pounced right on top of him to secure the safety. Atlanta may have still been down one, but you could feel the momentum shift to them.

Later in the half it was Atlanta’s turn to produce a drive backed up on its own goal line. Ryan went to work, orchestrating a nine-play, 99-yard touchdown drive to give the Falcons a nine-point lead heading into halftime. The Falcons showed no fear of the Legion of Boom, throwing the ball on every play of that drive, capped off by a 14-yard catch and run by Tevin Coleman for the touchdown.

The rest of the game became academic after Atlanta’s offense exerted its will on the Seattle defense on the opening drive of the second half ending with a Devonta Freeman rushing touchdown. The Falcons rode the wave of that perfectly executed 14-point swing to victory. It was game-set-match.

Atlanta and its prolific offense advance to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2012. The only question that remained was whether they would be traveling to Dallas, or hosting Green Bay.

New England Survives A Sloppy First Half, But Eventually Rolls Houston

 

Give credit to Houston for making this one mildly entertaining for at least one half. New England uncharacteristically turned the ball over twice in the second quarter deep in its own territory. A Dion Lewis fumble on a kickoff and a Tom Brady interception (gasp!) put Houston in field goal range with two opportunities to take control of the game. The Patriots defense stood tall and limited Houston to only ten points in that quick stretch, keeping them ahead 14-13 with 10 minutes to go in the second quarter.

The Texans would never get closer though as New England added a field goal to end the half before dominating in the second half. The Patriots would intercept Brock Osweiler three times in the second half (all by former Rutgers players… Go Knights) which stifled any comeback attempt by Houston.

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense settled in with its defense playing some outstanding football on the other side. It wasn’t flashy, but New England was able to control the rest of the game and slowly add to its lead making it insurmountable by the beginning of the fourth quarter.

New England advanced to its sixth consecutive AFC Championship game and would await the winner of the Pittsburgh-Kansas City game. Its also the eleventh time New England has made the AFC Championship game in the Brady-Belichick era.

Green Bay Staves Off a Late Dallas Rally for its Eighth Straight Win

 

We now turn our attention to the best game of the weekend, which featured an epic clash between Green Bay and Dallas. The Cowboys came out with its usual mix of Ezekiel Elliot on the ground and intermediate passing, but a sack forced Dallas to settle for a field goal. Green Bay responded with 21 unanswered points in an incredible run by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense where they looked unstoppable.

Dak Prescott would finally get the Dallas offense going again after hooking up with Dez Bryant for a 40-yard touchdown to cut the deficit to eleven. Dallas would add another field goal to make it a one-possession game heading into halftime. The Cowboys withstood the early storm and weren’t going to let Green Bay pull off the road upset that easily.

Unfortunately, the Dallas defense just couldn’t keep Rodgers down for long. Green Bay would open up the second half with another impressive scoring drive ending with Rodgers finding Jared Cook for a three-yard touchdown to make it 28-13.

That score would hold until the fourth quarter when Dallas threw everything it could muster up in a valiant comeback attempt. Following an interception of Rodgers (he actually does make mistakes), Prescott would get the Dallas offense rolling. Ten plays later, he would find old reliable, Jason Witten for a touchdown to make it 28-20 with 11:39 to play.

Momentum was swinging and the Dallas defense fed off the energy of the crowd, picking up a crucial stop on the next possession. Prescott would then lead another long touchdown drive, finding Bryant again for a seven-yard touchdown to make it 28-26. Jason Garrett would roll the dice and keep his offense on the field to attempt the two-point conversion. Dallas came out in the shotgun, spreading out the Green Bay defense. The QB draw was the perfect play call as Prescott waltzed into the endzone to pick up the two-point conversion to tie the game with just over four minutes left in the game.

It was a brand new ball game now. Dallas had clawed its way back into the game after falling into the early 18-point hole. Now they just needed to stop Rodgers again. That was easier said than done though. Green Bay went a bit conservative with some of its play calls, trying to bleed as much of the clock as they could. The Cowboys defense forced the Packers to settle for a 56-yard field goal from the trusty leg of Mason Crosby. Green Bay led 31-28 with just under two minutes remaining.

Dallas got the ball back with a timeout and 1:33 left on the clock, plenty of time for Prescott to engineer a game winning drive. Prescott came out dealing, hitting Terrance Williams for 24-yards then found Jason Witten for eleven yards on the next play. The Cowboys were on the move, but then Garrett had his quarterback spike it with 1:07 on the clock.

Green Bay’s defense collected themselves and readied for battle once again. Cole Beasley caught a short pass and got knocked out of bounds after a seven-yard gain. Once again though the clock was stopped. The Packers got the all-important stop on third down when Nick Perry knocked down a Prescott pass at the line of scrimmage. Dallas was forced to settle for a 51-yard field goal from Dan Bailey and we were tied at 31 with 35 seconds left in the game.

Rodgers made the most of the little time left on the clock and created some magic on the final drive of regulation. He found Ty Montgomery for 17 yards, but then Dallas was able to sack him for a ten-yard loss on the next play. Rodgers tried to go deep on the next play but had to throw it away.

3^rd-and-20 with 18 seconds left in the game and overtime was in sight for the Cowboys. They only rushed three men on the play, which gave Rodgers enough time to turn the scramble drill into what would become the play of the game. He would find Cook once again on the sideline for an incredible 32-yard pass. The review would confirm that Cook just barely kept his toes in-bounds.

Crosby would trot out onto the field for a chance to hit a game-winning 51-yard field goal. The kick was good but Dallas used its final timeout to attempt to ice Crosby. He wouldn’t waste his second attempt, and curled the kick just inside the left upright to give the Packers a thrilling 34-31 victory, punching their ticket to Atlanta to face the Falcons in the NFC Championship game.

Pittsburgh’s Kicking Game Bests Kansas City

 

When your kicker does all of your scoring and the opposing team scores two touchdowns, usually that doesn’t lead to a victory, especially in the playoffs. The Steelers bucked that thinking, as Chris Boswell hit a postseason-record six field goals en route to an 18-16 upset of Kansas City.

Pittsburgh relied heavily on the kicking game for points but it was Le’Veon Bell who literally carried the Steelers all night long. He set a new single-game franchise record for rushing yards with a 170-yard performance on the ground. He was the bright spot in a tough night for the Pittsburgh offense.

The real story in a game like this is two-fold. On one side of the equation you have the play of the Pittsburgh defense, which held Kansas City to 225 total yards and forced two turnovers. The other part of this story is another instance of Andy Reid’s clock management. He inexplicably burned a timeout early in the second half to talk over a play, and then came out in the same formation following the timeout. It led to a 20-yard pass to Jeremy Maclin, but the cost was not having a timeout late in the game.

Once again the Chiefs fall short in the Divisional round, and Pittsburgh moves on to the AFC Championship game to face New England. I think we are all winners in that exchange.

Golden State Crushes Cleveland in Final Regular Season Clash of NBA Titans

Seven months ago, Cleveland robbed Golden State the NBA championship and the moniker of “greatest team of all time.” Then last month the Cavaliers stole a victory away from the Warriors on Christmas Day. Last night, Golden State nabbed a small measure of revenge against their rival from the East in dominating fashion. Golden State’s 126-91 win over Cleveland was a shot across the bow in the season-long standoff between the two top teams in the NBA.

The talk today was whether it actually means anything considering it was only a regular season game. For Cleveland, it’s really not that big of a deal. They are still the overwhelming favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals and one loss in the regular season doesn’t change their long-term trajectory.

For Golden State, this was a big game for them. Beating Cleveland handily is going to be a huge confidence booster for the Warriors given how the last seven months have gone against the Cavaliers. A four-game losing streak against Cleveland is broken. Now the Warriors set its focus on securing the top-seed in the West and attempting to make the NBA Finals for the third consecutive season.

I think the biggest point to takeaway from last night’s game was the incident between Draymond Green and LeBron James. Green shoulder-checked James on a fast break, picking up a flagrant foul on the play. After the play, Green mocked James for “selling” the foul. Obviously Green needs to stay away from the flagrant fouls, his suspension in the NBA Finals last season probably cost Golden State a championship.

I really do question why the Warriors keep making the same mistake of mocking LeBron. If history has shown us anything, you don’t mess with LeBron like that. He doesn’t forget and you know he’ll bring his “apex predator” game when these two inevitably square off down the line. Hopefully, that next time will be in the NBA Finals.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” for my midseason NBA rankings. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Here we go folks, the Divisional round of the playoffs is here. Last week was a pretty big dud, but these matchups should produce some magic on the field. The Divisional round has produced some of the most iconic moments in NFL history (The Immaculate Reception, Rodgers’ Game-Tying Hail Mary, etc.). So hopefully the play on the field this week can reach the bar that has been set as recently as last season (Packers-Cardinals in the Divisional round was easily the best game of last season).

Before I get into my matchup breakdowns and game picks, lets look back at how I did last week. I went 3-1 with the game picks, but went 2-2 against the spread. I completely whiffed on the Oakland-Houston game (thanks Connor Cook), and Green Bay blowing out New York came as a bit of a surprise. I think I made up for it on Monday, nailing the Clemson win over Alabama, but it’s a new week so let’s shoot for a 4-0 week across the board. Let’s jump right into the games this week.

Seattle vs. Atlanta (Sat. 4:35 PM, FOX)

The Divisional round hits the ground running with Seattle traveling to face Atlanta. Everyone is keying on the matchup between the high-flying Falcons offense against Seattle’s Legion of Boom, and rightly so. The Earl Thomas injury has been a huge point of emphasis on this battle, and there are definitely some concerns for Seattle without its eraser in the backend of the defense.

Seattle topped Atlanta all the way back in Week 6 but these teams are completely different since that first game. Seattle is banged up on defense, but the offense has gotten Thomas Rawls back to spark the running game. Atlanta has been running roughshod over opposing defenses and even got a new weapon in the form of receiver Taylor Gabriel.

In order for the Seahawks to have a good shot to pull off a road win, they will need to play a bit of “keep away” with the football. Atlanta averages over 30 points per game this season, which doesn’t bode well for Seattle historically. The Seahawks are 3-4-1 on the road this season, which already is a knock against them. Here’s a big stat to keep an eye on in this game. Over the past five seasons, Seattle is 0-11 when giving up more than 25 points on the road.

Game Pick: Atlanta              ATS Pick: Atlanta (-4.5)

 Houston vs. New England (Sat. 8:15 PM, CBS)

Okay, now this isn’t exactly the best matchup of the weekend. New England throttled Houston in Week 3 with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Houston’s defense has improved since then, much of it due to the long-awaited emergence of Jadeveon Clowney. Will that help Houston? A little bit. Will it change the outcome of this game? Not one bit. There is good reason for the Patriots being the heaviest playoff favorite since 1999.

New England is one of the toughest places to play in the postseason, and with the way Tom Brady has played this season, I just don’t see how Houston wins this game. You put any kind of talent around Brady and he’ll make them look like superstars. Obviously Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett are the top guys in this offense, but don’t sleep on Malcolm Mitchell and Dion Lewis. Mitchell has emerged as a viable redzone threat following the injury to Rob Gronkowski. Lewis is a Swiss Army knife for this offense. He can run between the tackles but is most dangerous when he catches the ball out of the backfield. Combined with Legarrette Blount, Lewis makes this backfield the most lethal skill position for this offense.

Game Pick: New England               ATS Pick: New England (-15.5)

Green Bay vs. Dallas (Sun. 4:40 PM, FOX)

Talk about how much things have changed over the course of a season. Dallas made a huge statement earlier this season by going into Green Bay and knocking off the Packers. That loss began a rough stretch for Green Bay in the middle of the season, losing five out of six games. However, that was before Aaron Rodgers made his “run the table” guarantee. Rodgers is the hottest player, on the hottest team in the NFL right now. Green Bay has reeled off seven wins in a row since that guarantee by its star quarterback.

I do worry about the absence of Jordy Nelson in this game for Green Bay; if you watched any Packers games in 2015 you will understand why. This offense is completely different without its top receiver in the mix. Randall Cobb was awesome last week, but is much better in the slot than playing at the “X” or “Z” receiver. That would mean Davante Adams is going to have to step up in the #1 receiver role in order for Green Bay to keep Cobb in his ideal spot in the offense.

Now we all know what Dallas does well, and it has allowed them to be efficient, effective, and dangerous on offense all season long. I do have some trust issues with a rookie quarterback in Dak Prescott having to beat the hottest quarterback in the game. This game is going to be a shootout given the way that both offenses can move the ball and score points. Ezekiel Elliott has been near impossible to stop in the running game, so the Green Bay defense will have its hands full trying to slow down the NFL’s top running back.

No matter where I look though, this game keeps circling back to the quarterbacks for me. It’s the known commodity versus the unknown in a crucial postseason matchup. This is one of the two games this weekend that are a coin toss in my opinion.

Game Pick: Green Bay        ATS Pick: Green Bay (+5)

Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City (Sun. 8:20 PM, NBC)

Let’s get the big news from today out of the way right now. This game was moved from 1:00 PM to 8:20 PM due to an ice storm in the forecast in Kansas City on Sunday. That could mean field conditions will be a question mark heading into this game. Luckily both teams are equipped to handle rough conditions, and could mean the running games for each side will be leaned on heavily.

Heading into this game, there were two things to keep in mind. You have a matchup of the hot team against a team that has a bit of history on its side. Pittsburgh has quietly won eight games in a row (Green Bay’s winning streak has gotten all of the press), while Kansas City is coming off of a bye week. Why is that important to know for the Chiefs? Andy Reid is 18-3 in his career the week after a bye.

That adds some more intrigue to this game, which I think could be the best of the weekend. Big Ben might be a little dinged up heading into this one, but as history has shown, he is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league and a bum ankle won’t hold him back. More importantly is the health of the rest of the Pittsburgh offense.

Le’Veon Bell has been the missing piece of some of the past playoff teams in Pittsburgh, and he showed exactly why last week. Bell broke Pittsburgh’s single-game playoff rushing record in his first career postseason game. He is Pittsburgh’s x-factor in this game due to his ability to open up the Steeler offense once he gets going on the ground. Bell forces defenses to respect the running game, and keep bodies off of Antonio Brown. Miami found that out the hard way last week.

Kansas City has been a team built to play in one-possession games or with a lead during the Andy Reid era. However, the emergence of rookie Tyreek Hill has added a game-breaking element to this team that has been lacking in recent years. Hill’s ability to score whenever he touches the ball is definitely the x-factor for Kansas City in this game. The Chiefs have found creative ways to get him the ball in space on offense, but Hill’s talent in the return game has easily been his best attribute.

This game is definitely a toss up between the game-breaking players on both sides and the solid defenses each team has put together. I would give the edge to Kansas City’s defense but Pittsburgh can definitely hold its own.

Game Pick: Pittsburgh       ATS Pick: Pittsburgh (+1)

That’s it for me this week, enjoy the weekend everyone. I’ll be back on Monday to recap the postseason games. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Usually the sequel doesn’t live up to the original. That was not the case last night during an epic fourth quarter that decided that national championship between Alabama and Clemson. While it wasn’t as high scoring as the first matchup between these two teams, last night’s game packed all kinds of drama right until the final whistle.

Clemson’s 35-31 victory over Alabama will certainly go down in history as one of the best national title games of all time. That’s a not revisionist’s history, or an exaggeration. This game lived up to the insane hype and then some. The pace of the game definitely could have been faster, but those final few minutes were worth the almost three hour wait to get to the fourth quarter.

Alabama had not allowed more than 21 points all season, but Deshaun Watson and company were able to put up 21 in the final quarter to steal the championship away from the Tide. The Tigers survived a precarious 14-0 hole against the top-ranked team in the country and clawed back into the game by halftime. Alabama normally is able to sit on leads and squeeze the life out of its opponents but once Clemson got on the board in the second quarter, you could sense that the momentum slip away from the Tide.

Watson played potentially the game of his career, withstanding the constant onslaught from the vaunted Alabama defense. Just when you thought that the Tigers were dead, Watson would come up with a play to keep his team alive. Whether it was a pinpoint throw to Mike Williams, Hunter Renfrow, Jordan Leggett, or Deon Cain. It was an absolutely gutsy performance from Watson and the Tigers last night.

I do have to give credit to the Clemson defense, which had been gashed early in the game, and even gave up what could have been a backbreaking touchdown to O.J. Howard. They hunkered down and flipped the script on Alabama, which allowed the offense to wear down the Tide’s defense over the course of the second half.

Now I will admit that once running back Bo Scarbrough went out of the game, with what we found out in post-game was a broken leg, you could sense that Alabama was in serious trouble. Scarbrough could not be stopped by Clemson once he got near the redzone, but when it came time to protect the lead late in that game you could see his ability to slam the ball between the tackles was sorely missed. That being said, Alabama still lead by three with six seconds on the clock and the best defense in the country on the field to protect the lead.

In an ironic twist of fate, the game-winning touchdown was scored on the Tide’s five-star defense by former walk-on Hunter Renfrow. You seriously can’t make these things up. Was there offensive pass interference on the final play? That’s up to you. Personally that was a good no-call in that situation. The referee’s picked the right time to let the player’s decide the game. Plus, there wasn’t a blatant pick; two players got locked up which cut off the defender.

It’s only a matter of time until ESPN turns last night’s game into a “30 for 30.” That is how good last night’s game was in comparison to the first matchup. Congratulations to the Clemson Tigers, you gave us one hell of a game last night. Now let’s all hope we get the rubber match between these programs in 2018.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” to give my midseason power rankings in the NBA. Be on the lookout for “No Huddle” later this week with my breakdown of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook

Happy Monday everyone! Hopefully you all had a fantastic weekend and most of you were able to dig yourself out of the weekend snowstorms across the East Coast. Unfortunately, the NFL didn’t exactly deliver much drama so today’s “Weekend Recap” will be a bit light. I will wrap up with a quick preview of tonight’s CFP National Championship between Alabama and Clemson.

A Mild, Wild Card Weekend in the NFL

We’ll start with the NFL, where the Wild Card round didn’t exactly scream “wild.” The home teams dominated all four games and just like that the wild card teams in both conferences are gone. Oakland couldn’t do anything on offense with Connor Cook at the helm while Brock Osweiler played mistake-free football and led Houston to a nice 27-14 playoff win. Seattle dropped Detroit in the least exciting game of the weekend, 26-6. Detroit has spent more time blaming the officials on Saturday night than taking accountability for getting outplayed by Seattle.

Sunday gave us the two hottest teams in football continuing their impressive runs. The opening game of the day saw Pittsburgh jump all over Miami early and keep the motor down the rest of the game. Antonio Brown scored two 50+-yard touchdowns to open the game and the Steelers never looked back. Le’Veon Bell got the rock the rest of the game and broke the franchise record for a single-game rushing performance with his 167-yard, two-touchdown day on the ground. Should Big Ben have been in a three-possession game late? Probably not, but that was what Mike Tomlin thought was the best decision. Roethlisberger is one of the toughest QBs in the league, and a mild ankle sprain won’t stop him from playing next week.

The Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers dominated the final game of the weekend, which everyone thought would be an early “game of the year” candidate, sinking the New York Giants. Rodgers threw for a whooping 362 yards and four touchdowns in what quickly became a rout of the G-men. It was a tight first half, but once Green Bay ended the first half with Rodgers connected with Randall Cobb for a touchdown on a 42-yard Hail Mary, it was all over.

New York couldn’t move the ball with any consistency due in large part to a terrible game from Odell Beckham Jr. and the rest of the wide receivers. A lot has been made about that Miami trip, but honestly they just no-showed this game, plain and simple. The one time where Eli Manning actually looked like the good Eli, his receivers weren’t up to the task. That was the Giants offense in a nutshell this year, no consistency or cohesion.

Regardless of all the blowouts this weekend, we are set up for a potentially epic Divisional round next weekend. Green Bay-Dallas, Seattle-Atlanta, and Pittsburgh-Kansas City all have the potential to be great football games. Houston-New England is part of the slate, and I just hope Brady puts on a show.

CFP National Championship Preview

Let’s get to tonight’s national championship game between Alabama and Clemson. The rematch from last season could provide an even better game than the 45-40 thriller we got a year ago. There is history on the line along with the national title tonight. Alabama could win its fifth title in eight years, which has never been done in the modern era. Nick Saban would also tie Paul “Bear” Bryant for the most national championships for a head coach. Clemson can win its first championship since 1981, and could be the first team since Florida State in 1999 to win a national title after losing in the championship game the year before.

The other “storyline” in this game was Steve Sarkisian taking over as offensive coordinator for the outgoing Lane Kiffin. Personally, I think it’s a non-factor in this game. Sarkisian has been around the program all year, and is good friends with Kiffin back from their days coaching under Pete Carroll at USC. He’ll have a good handle on this offense and the scheme they have used all season. Expect a much better gameplan than a week ago despite the coaching change.

In terms of the actual matchup, this one is juicy. Alabama’s top-ranked defense flexed its muscles against Washington, but if there is one thing that has troubled Nick Saban defenses during his tenure in Tuscaloosa it is a mobile quarterback. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson certainly fits that description, and last season he torched the Tide’s defense for almost 500 total yards and four passing touchdowns.

The Tigers didn’t have its best weapon last season in wide receiver Mike Williams, but he is back for the rematch. Williams will likely be one of the first receivers off the board in the NFL draft and he is a matchup nightmare for opposing defensive backs. He adds a threat that was definitely lacking in the first matchup.

I’m expecting to see another classic between these two teams. Alabama is reportedly more fired up tonight than any other game this season. That could be bad news for Clemson because if the Tide gets out to an early lead, it could roll. The Tigers need to take control of this game early if it wants any chance to win tonight. With a matchup this close, the team that takes care of the little things will come away with the national championship. I whiffed big time going against Alabama last week but I think the revenge factor gives Clemson the motivation to stand tall against the top-ranked Tide.

Game Pick: Clemson           ATS Pick: Clemson (+6)

Enjoy the game tonight! I’ll be back tomorrow with a recap of tonight’s game. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

It’s finally here. In less than 24 hours, the NFL postseason will have officially started. Wild Card weekend normally packs a few surprises so we’ll have to see if this year brings us a shocker. Today’s “No Huddle” will look at every game and I will give my picks for each game and against the spread. Let’s take a look at how every game stacks up.

AFC Wild Card: Oakland vs. Houston (Sat. 4:35 PM, ESPN)

This isn’t exactly the best game to kick off the playoffs but its still playoff football nonetheless so beggars can’t be choosers. Oakland limps into this one having lost its star quarterback Derek Carr two weeks ago and Houston edged out Tennessee in the weak AFC South. In my opinion this game will ride on the arms of the quarterbacks here. Oakland has the firepower and offensive line to deal with Houston’s defense while the Texans offense can theoretically handle the Raiders defense.

Your starting quarterbacks will be third string rookie Connor Cook for Oakland and Brock Osweiler for Houston. Now we’ve all seen the disaster that Osweiler has been for the Texans this season. He was benched a few weeks ago in favor of Tom Savage, but as fate would have it, was injured in the regular season finale. Osweiler is forced back into the starting role, and I can still feel the collective shudder all the way from Houston while typing this sentence.

We don’t exactly know much about Cook as an NFL quarterback since he was the practice squad QB in Oakland until last week. I will say this about him though; Cook was a capable starter on some really good Michigan State teams in college. The question here is can he pull out a win in his first NFL start? It is the first time a rookie QB made is first start in the postseason.

In games like this where the quarterback play might be mediocre at best, you tend to look at the kicking game to see who has the edge. I’ll take the hefty-lefty Sebastian Janikowski over Nick Novak just about every time.

Game Pick: Oakland            ATS Pick: Oakland (+4)

 

NFC Wild Card: Detroit vs. Seattle (Sat. 8:15 PM, NBC)

The nightcap on Saturday night features a matchup of strengths between the Seattle defense and the Detroit offense. Much has been made all week about whether or not the Lions actually deserve to be a playoff team. Eight fourth-quarter comebacks and a couple of late-season collapses by Tampa Bay and Washington helped punch a playoff ticket for Detroit. Its reward is a trip to Seattle to deal with the Legion of Boom the infamous 12^th Man.

Seattle is near impossible to beat at home, but this Seahawks team is not nearly as strong as it has been in the past. The Legion of Boom is already without safety Earl Thomas, which opens up the deep part of the field, and safety Kam Chancellor has been banged up all season. Then on the other side of the ball, Seattle’s offensive line has been an issue all season and will make or break this team in any given game.

That being said, Detroit isn’t devoid of talent and has been able to hang around in games all season so you can’t exactly count them out of this game. Matthew Stafford has been great all year and can move the ball in the passing game. I would have felt a lot better about Detroit’s chances to pull off an upset had running back Theo Riddick not been placed on IR earlier this week. That leaves Zach Zenner to assume the majority of the carries in the backfield. Regardless, this is still a playoff game in Seattle and home-field advantage should be enough to get the Seahawks through this game.

Game Pick: Seattle               ATS Pick: Seattle (-8)

 

AFC Wild Card: Miami vs. Pittsburgh (Sun. 1:05 PM, CBS)

We now move onto the action on Sunday and the second of three regular season rematches. Miami trounced Pittsburgh in the first game between these two. Don’t expect to see a similar outcome in this one though. The Steelers are in peak form right now while the Dolphins are shorthanded.

With Ryan Tannehill officially out of this game, there is no way the Pittsburgh will allow Jay Ajayi to run wild on them once again. If you recall, Ajayi ripped off a 200-yard performance in this first matchup. The Steelers defense is going to key on Ajayi and force backup quarterback Matt Moore to beat them.

The question will be whether or not Miami can score with this high-powered Pittsburgh offense. Pittsburgh’s Killer B’s are lethal especially when Le’Veon Bell gets going in the running game. Bell can control the flow of this game out of the backfield because he is as effective running between the tackles as he is in the passing game. That will allow Antonio Brown to work in single-coverage, which is like taking candy from a baby. Big Ben should be able to shred this average Miami secondary, especially in the friendly confines of Heinz Field.

Game Pick: Pittsburgh       ATS Pick: Pittsburgh (-10.5)

 

NFC Wild Card: New York vs. Green Bay (Sun. 4:40 PM, FOX)

Okay folks, this is the game I think we are all waiting for this weekend. The two teams that most experts think can steal the NFC away from Dallas square off in the best matchup of the Wild Card round. It’s also the final regular season rematch of the round. We also get the added bonus of the playoff history between these teams. The Giants have won the last two postseason meetings before these teams, both of which were at Lambeau Field. Those wins also helped propel New York to a pair of Super Bowl wins. That definitely adds some fuel to an already fantastic matchup.

This game is all about the red-hot Green Bay offense against the incredibly stout New York defense. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire since making his “run the table” guarantee six weeks ago. He’ll face a defense that allows the second-least amount of points in the league.

Personally, I absolutely love this matchup between the New York secondary and the Green Bay receivers. With the way that Rodgers extends plays when under pressure, that will only put a bigger spotlight on this battle all day long. Jordy Nelson might not as fast as he was a couple of years ago, but the wily vet knows how to get himself open on these scramble plays.

A big x-factor in this strength-on-strength matchup will be the dual-threat ability of Ty Montgomery. He’s listed as a receiver, but Green Bay has used him almost exclusively as a running back during the second-half of the season. Montgomery adds a dimension to this offense that most teams just don’t have at its disposal. Granted this only started as a small package of plays until Eddie Lacy and James Starks got hurt (Starks had since returned, but Montgomery had won this job by then). Keep an eye on #88 in this game.

I really do have concerns about this New York offense coming into the playoffs. 26^th in the NFL in points scored and 25^th in yards gained. That is pretty bad for an offense that sports some serious talent at wide receiver. There are two issues that I’ve seen this year with the Giants offense.

The first is the running game. It is almost non-existent at this point, ranking near the bottom of the NFL in all of the key statistics. Rashad Jennings is really only in there for pass protection purposes, which diminishes the true value of rookie Paul Perkins. The Giants really only run the ball to keep defenses honest at this point.

My second issue with the Giants offense is more important than the lack of a running game. Eli Manning’s numbers might be in line with some of his better seasons but just watching this offense there is something seriously wrong with his game right now. He needs to be on his “A” game because there is a good matchup to take advantage here.

Green Bay’s pass defense has been okay at best this season, but still ranks near the bottom of the NFL in passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns, and net yards gained per attempt. The offensive line for New York will have to keep Manning upright because this front-seven has been much better since Clay Matthews has come back into the lineup.

I’m expecting on hell of a football game, and should set the bar for the level of play for the rest of the postseason. It’s a true toss up game here so sit back and enjoy this one.

Game Pick: Green Bay        ATS Pick: New York (+5)

That’s it for me this week. Have a great weekend everyone and enjoy all of the playoff action. I’ll be back on Monday to recap the NFL action and anything big that breaks during the weekend. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

What a ride. The 2016 fantasy football season was another interesting year. Twists, turns, and tons of heartache or jubilation (depending on how you finished in your league) were hallmarks of another great year for fantasy. Today I bring you the final “Reality of Fantasy” for the 2016 NFL season. I’ve got year-end awards, final takeaways, and some tips for anyone doing playoff challenges. So let’s jump right in since there is a lot to get to today.

We’ll start with my awards for the 2016 season. I’ll be handing out a few different awards ranging from fantasy MVP, dud of the year, and the all-important “Mr. Consistency.” Here are my year-end awards for 2016.

Fantasy MVP: David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

This was a no-brainer for me, especially in PPR scoring formats. Johnson was the definition of a fantasy stud all season long. After bursting onto the scene in late 2015, he earned his spot in the top ten rankings coming into this season. Turns out a top ten ranking was underselling Johnson’s potential in 2016. He was the top player in fantasy this season due in large part to his versatile skill set in the Arizona offense. His stat line for this season was gaudy. 1,239 rushing yards, 16 rushing TDs, 80 catches, 879 receiving yards, and four receiving TDs. A literal dual-threat out of the backfield, and made a strong case for “Mr. Consistency.” Johnson avoided a disastrous end to his season by not suffering an ACL or MCL tear in his knee so his future outlook is solid. He will likely be the consensus #1 pick next season regardless of your scoring format.

Honorable Mention: Ezekiel Elliot (RB, Dallas Cowboys)

 

Fantasy Dud of 2016: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers 

There are quite a few options for this one, but when you are the top player drafted at your position and don’t even come close to producing that type of value that is a quick way to land this award. Cam Newton went from being the top player in fantasy in 2015 to the top ranked QB coming into 2016 to the 17^th ranked QB by season’s end. Yikes.

Now there are a ton of factors that were at play, but Newton was just not the same player this year (o-line injuries, etc.). Newton definitely regressed following an MVP season in 2015. He went from 35 passing TDs to 19 passing TDs. The scariest part of his season was his rushing numbers literally being cut in half from 2015 to 2016. Granted the rushing performance was due likely to the concussion concerns after he suffered a scary looking concussion mid-season that forced him to miss a game.

Newton is still one of the most physically gifted players in the NFL, and there will be better days ahead. I just worry if he peaked already.

Honorable Mentions: Todd Gurley (RB, LA Rams), Allen Robinson (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars)

 

Breakout Player of 2016: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers

Injuries at running back forced a bell-cow workload on Gordon this season and he absolutely delivered for the Chargers, and your fantasy team. You likely snagged Gordon around the ninth round in your fantasy drafts and performed like a top-ten back until a hip injury ended his season during the fantasy playoffs. 997 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, 41 catches, 419 receiving yards, and two receiving TDs is an impressive stat line for a guy that had fallen into the ranks of the fantasy irrelevant following a dismal rookie campaign in 2015. He is a no-brainer for keeper and dynasty leagues in 2017 especially considering where you got him in the draft this year.

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Howard (RB, Chicago Bears), Jay Ajayi (RB, Miami Dolphins), Davante Adams (WR, Green Bay Packers)

 

Comeback Player of 2016: DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans 

2015 was a year to forget for Murray in Philadelphia. A change of scenery and more importantly, a change in offensive scheme rejuvenated the former rushing champion in 2016. Murray was a beast for the Titans this season and made that dismal season in Philly look like just a bump in the road for his career rather than the roadblock like many thought in preseason. He took full control of the backfield in Tennessee despite having the presence of former Heisman winner Derrick Henry.

Murray was as consistent as he was lethal for your fantasy team, especially snagging him in the draft at a considerable discount (3^rd to 5^th rounds). In standard scoring, he topped double-digits in 14 out of 16 weeks. Now, long term I do have some concerns because of Henry and the workload Murray received this season (293 carries) but this was one hell of a comeback season in 2016.

Honorable Mention: Jordy Nelson (WR, Green Bay Packers)

 

Mr. Consistency: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Death, taxes, and Zeke. That is how consistent this rookie sensation was in fantasy this year. Elliott took the league by storm this season running behind the best offensive line in football. He led the league in rushing by a wide margin (1,631 yards for Elliott, almost 400 yards more than 2^nd place). His 51-yard performance in Week 1 was just a blip on the radar because for the rest of the season, Elliott gained at least 80 yards rushing in every single game the rest of the way (rested in Week 17). Elliott topped 100 yards seven times during that 15-week stretch and likely won you a number of games singlehandedly in the process. Outside of David Johnson, I don’t think I am higher on any player in fantasy football in 2017 and beyond.

Honorable Mentions: David Johnson (RB, Arizona Cardinals), Le’Veon Bell (RB, Pittsburgh Steelers)

Those are the first-ever “Reality of Fantasy” awards; let’s now get into my final takeaways from the fantasy season. I had a few of these following the fantasy regular season so I’ll try not to repeat myself, but the final three weeks of fantasy definitely reinforced a lot of the things I have talked about all season.

(1) Roster Flexibility Will Always Be The Path to Success

This takeaway kind of goes off of my takeaway from a few weeks ago, but definitely is something that was reinforced during the fantasy playoffs. “Zero RB” and other off-kilter roster building theories may have worked in previous years (especially 2015), but 2016 reminded us that being deep in multiple positions will always bring you success.

While there were a number of injuries this season at the position, running backs came back in a big way. Receiving stats came back to earth following a ridiculous 2015. Quarterbacks are still a dime-a-dozen in fantasy. So what does that mean? You need an even dispersal of talent across your fantasy roster. The rainy days aren’t far off in fantasy so building a strong, deep roster early and regularly maintaining that strength and depth throughout the season will get you to the promised land.

(2) A Youth Movement is Taking Over Fantasy

More than most years in recent memory, game changing players in fantasy were some of the youngest in the league. Rookies and sophomore players were among the top players in fantasy in 2016. Guys like Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, and Mike Evans were dominant players but aren’t even in their primes yet. 2017 could mark a shift in fantasy where we can now put solid stock in the younger generation of players in the league as the fantasy elite. The talent pool is ripe with young players ready to takeover the NFL.

(3) The Tight End Position Was a Wasteland

If there was one position that really underwhelmed this year, it was tight end. There was very little consistency overall and even the top guys weren’t the most reliable (Gronk, Kelce, Olsen, and Reed). Injuries definitely didn’t help the position but if there is one thing I am taking with me into 2017, this position is razor-thin right now. Streaming is a popular strategy in this week-to-week game. You can stream quarterbacks because you can play a matchup and still get solid production. Defenses get streamed because unless you have a top defense, you want to pick on a bad offense. In 2017, tight end streaming could become an option due to the horrific lack of solid talent outside the top four or five guys.

Before I wrap things up, let’s talk a little bit about playoff challenge pools. If you are doing one for the first time, I’ll quickly run down the way these work. First, these aren’t like your usual fantasy game where you go head-to-head with another player in your league. These are huge pools where the goal is to score the most points through the Super Bowl.

You pick your team based on who you think will make the Super Bowl because there are multipliers that are applied as you go on with a player (4X multiplier in the Super Bowl for example). In most of these pools, you do have to be careful since the common rule is you can’t replace a guy that is eliminated. So here are some of my picks for the fantasy playoff challenge.

QB: Tom Brady (Patriots), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)

RB: Le’Veon Bell (Steelers), Ezekiel Elliot (Cowboys), Spencer Ware (Chiefs)

WR: Antonio Brown (Steelers), Jordy Nelson (Packers), Julio Jones (Falcons), Dez Bryant (Cowboys), Julian Edelman (Patriots), Tyreek Hill (Chiefs)

TE: Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Travis Kelce (Chiefs)

Good luck to all of you in these playoff challenges, and remember that you are basically trying to figure out who plays in the Super Bowl. Don’t get too crazy with your picks because trying to ride a Cinderella could likely mean you just made a donation to the person that wins.

Thank you so much for reading “Reality of Fantasy” all season. It was a ton of fun writing these all season long in my first full season covering fantasy football. I’ll bring back this column following the NFL Draft in May. In the meantime, enjoy the playoffs.

 

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “No Huddle” to breakdown and pick the Wild Card games this weekend. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Brace yourselves, the NFL postseason is finally here. 17 weeks of attrition has left us with 12 teams vying for the coveted Lombardi trophy on that first Sunday in February. I’ll have my postseason predictions as part of my matchup/pickem column, so today’s “No Huddle” will feature my power rankings of the playoff teams. Before I reveal my rankings, let’s set the table a little bit.

The round-trip road to Super Bowl LI begins on Saturday in Houston and it should be a bit of a bumpy ride. While all signs would point to a Dallas-New England showdown in the Super Bowl, I wouldn’t lock that one in just yet. The AFC is shaping up to be a three-team race while the NFC seems like it might be up for grabs (Dallas is still the favorite though).

Injuries certainly hampered much of the intrigue in the AFC with Derek Carr out indefinitely and Ryan Tannehill’s status for this week up in the air. The top three seeds get a clear advantage with guys named Brady, Roethlisberger, and Smith at quarterback. All while the bottom three seeds are stuck playing Connor Cook (Oakland), Matt Moore (Miami), and Brock Osweiler (Houston). It definitely saps some of the juice out of wild card weekend with one almost meaningless game (Oakland @ Houston) and another game that could be lopsided (Pittsburgh @ Miami).

It could all come down to which team earns the right to play New England for the AFC Championship. Pittsburgh (assuming they beat Miami) and Kansas City are polar opposites of each other, which should make for a fun game if they do play each other in the Divisional round. Pittsburgh touts a gun-slinging QB with a coach who plays the role of the gambler while Kansas City plays things conservative and close to the vest.

Things are definitely a little more compelling over in the NFC with everyone jockeying to take down the upstart Cowboys. Luckily for Dallas, the two teams with the best chances of defeating them play each other this weekend (New York @ Green Bay). Unlucky for Dallas, a Detroit upset of Seattle is the only thing keeping both teams away from them in the Divisional round.

Then on the other side of the NFC bracket things really go up in the air because we still have questions about the legitimacy of Atlanta, the consistency of Seattle, and the serendipity of Detroit.

Atlanta has the top-scoring offense in the NFL, but a sub-par defense. The Falcons can score with Dallas or Green Bay but can they stop anyone in the clutch? Playoff games rarely resemble a day at the OK Corral, so the jury is still out on whether or not Atlanta can get into a defensive battle.

Injuries to the defense and a poor offensive line have been the impetus a rollercoaster season for Seattle. Without the 12^th man behind them, can Seattle make a deep run? Inconsistency cost Seattle a first round bye, which means the road to Houston would likely mean stops in Atlanta and Dallas for a team that is 3-4-1 away from home.

Then we have Detroit, who has played with fire all season. Short of Matthew Stafford setting the NFL record for game winning, fourth quarter touchdowns, this team wouldn’t have come close to the postseason. The Lions may have gotten a dose of karma receiving a trip to Seattle in the Wild Card round after failing to hold off the Packers for the NFC North title.

Like I said, the road to Houston could get a little bumpy since there are a few teams that could legitimately make the long run into February and a bunch of teams that are true wild cards. Without further ado though, here are my playoff power rankings. I would like to point out these rankings used Super Bowl potential as one of my prime considerations.

(1) New England Patriots (14-2) – #1 Seed in the AFC

What more can be said about Tom Brady and this Patriots team? New England rightfully earned the top spot in my power rankings with an impressive end to the season despite the loss of Rob Gronkowski and the surprising performance of a star-less defensive unit. Earning the top seed is a nice feather in the cap, but has also been a key component of the playoff success during the Belichick-Brady era. Five out of the six Super Bowl appearances for New England have come when the Patriots were the AFC’s top seeded team.

(2) Dallas Cowboys (13-3) – #1 Seed in the NFC

If it weren’t for the Cowboys taking the season finale off against Philadelphia, I may have considered them for the top spot. That being said though, this is going to be a difficult team to beat. Dak Prescott has done a good job protecting the football, which has allowed Ezekiel Elliott and this offensive line to dominate games. Plus, this defense has been impressive all year with linebacker Sean Lee and company holding its own. Am I worried about that self-imposed bye week? A little bit, because the last thing you want to do is take Prescott out of his rhythm. Now he’ll have been out essentially two weeks before facing either the Giants or Packers.

(3) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – #3 Seed in the AFC

With the Killer B’s in tact heading into the playoffs, I think that the Steelers are in position to be the most dangerous team for New England in the AFC. Le’Veon Bell is the x-factor for the Steelers because he seems almost incapable of accounting for less than 120 all-purpose yards per game. That production is what unlocks the full potential of this offense, because that means teams can’t sit back and try to stop Antonio Brown. Versatility is an important thing to have this time of year and Pittsburgh’s offense has that in spades.

(4) Green Bay Packers (10-6) – #4 Seed in the NFC

Regardless of the sport, postseason success usually is all about getting hot at the right time. I present to you the hottest team in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers has this offense rolling right now despite injuries all over the unit. Jordy Nelson started slow, but might be one of the most dangerous pass catchers left in the playoffs. With the way this team has played over the final six weeks of the season, they can go play with anyone. Unfortunately, the Packers drew the toughest matchup of the Wild Card round so that sentiment will be put to the test right away.

(5) Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) – #2 Seed in the AFC

Just because the Chiefs barely make the top five, doesn’t mean I don’t respect their game. Toughness is a hallmark of past Super Bowl champions, and Kansas City is far from a cupcake. Stingy defense, ball-control on offense, and the x-factor of Tyreek Hill give the Chiefs a solid case to make a deep run in the postseason. Stealing the #2 seed from Oakland was a massive boost to Kansas City’s Super Bowl hopes ensuring that they get a home game at the vaunted Arrowhead Stadium. This offense will be under the spotlight, as past seasons’ failures have come from the inability for this offense to generate production against the NFL’s elite teams.

(6) New York Giants (11-5) – #5 Seed in the NFC

The Giants get the boost over its remaining NFC counterparts due to this defense. New York has put together a defensive unit that can carry a team to a Super Bowl. Now why aren’t they higher on this list you ask? It’s because I think this offense holds them back. At some point the Giants will have to be able to do more than throw the occasional slant to Odell Beckham Jr. hoping he breaks a big play for a touchdown. The downfall of this Giants team will be this offense if they can’t iron out the inconsistencies of this offense.

(7) Atlanta Falcons (11-5) – #2 Seed in the NFC

I already laid out my biggest questions about this Atlanta team, so I’ll get a little more positive here. Matt Ryan is having a career season, Julio Jones is healthy once again, and the Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman backfield combo is a game-changer. It’s not hard to see why this offense ranks so highly this year. Playing at home will be huge coupled with the prospects of avoiding Green Bay or New York in the Divisional round. Atlanta could easily make it to the NFC Championship game, I just question if they have what it takes to make the Super Bowl.

(8) Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) – #3 Seed in the NFC  

Losing out on a first round bye and the subsequent later round home games is a crushing blow to the already dim Super Bowl chances for the Seahawks. On any given week you just don’t know what team you are going to get. This offensive line has killed the potential for this offense all season, but we all know how things can be when things are going well. Defensively, the loss of All-Pro safety Earl Thomas might be even more of a negative factor than any inconsistent play. He was the “eraser” for this defense and opens the deep passing game up against a shorthanded Legion of Boom. Can they put it together for three games and make it to the Super Bowl? Sure, but based on what we’ve seen, it’s a slim chance that happens.

(9) Detroit Lions (10-6) – #6 Seed in the AFC

(10) Miami Dolphins (10-6) – #6 Seed in the NFC

Both teams are really similar in my eyes. Detroit pulled off a record amount of fourth-quarter comebacks while Miami reeled off a big winning streak during one of the easiest stretches of games in the league. Each team does a few things well, but the chances of them pulling off an upset in the first round are pretty slim. Matthew Stafford for the Lions, and the potential Miami has in its weapons gives both an edge over the bottom two teams.

(11) Houston Texans (9-7) – #4 Seed in the AFC

Houston’s defense has certainly held up this season without J.J. Watt, but that isn’t this team’s problem. Brock Osweiler is the issue here. He has been dismal all season, holding back this offense at every turn. Then just when Bill O’Brien makes the move to Tom Savage and this offense finally showed some signs of life, Savage gets hurt. So it looks like Osweiler gets the nod against Oakland. Houston could win that game, but they will have no shot against New England.

(12) Oakland Raiders (12-4) – #5 Seed in the AFC

The minute Derek Carr went down for the rest of the year that was it for the Raiders. A buddy of mine asked me to give him three reasons why Oakland was so good this year. I jokingly asked him if Carr could be all three reasons. In reality I could have said the offensive line, easy schedule, or the weapons on offense. The more I thought about it, the more I believed that this team needs Carr at quarterback to have a legitimate chance to make any kind of run in the playoffs. Even if they get past Houston, the Patriots will make short work of them without its star quarterback. Last week alone showed why Derek Carr would have been a serious contender for the MVP this season had he not gotten hurt. It was such a shame to see happen to a team with such promise this season.

 

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my year-end awards and fantasy playoff picks in the final “Reality of Fantasy” of the season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Welcome back! Happy New Year to you all! 2017 is here and the holiday weekend has given us plenty of things to talk about around the water cooler today. The first “Weekend Recap” of the year has you covered. I’ve got my thoughts on the national semifinals in college football, the rest of the New Year’s Six bowls, and a little NFL coaching carousel for today.

Alabama-Clemson National Championship Rematch Set 

We’ll start the recap going back to “Semifinal Saturday” which saw the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl go the way of chalk. Alabama dominated Washington in the Peach Bowl 24-7 on the strength of its top ranked defense in the nation. I tweeted it at the time and I still believe it a few days out, Alabama looked like a boa constrictor in this game, slowly choking the life out of the Huskies.

Washington came out with a lot of energy on offense, opening up the scoring with an impressive touchdown drive to take the early lead. It was all Tide after that though. Bama marched down the field going almost exclusively with its running game to tie it up. The Huskies were moving swiftly but fumbled at midfield, which sucked the air out of the Washington offense. The rest of the game was seemingly played entirely on Washington’s side of the field.

Credit to the Washington defense though, watching the game you never would have guessed that it was a ten-point game for much of the second half. That deficit could have been a lot worse given the way Alabama controlled field position and shut down the Huskies offense.

I do have to admit that I totally blew my prediction for this game, probably my worst game pick of the season. The first ten minutes of that game went the way I thought it would but once Alabama started to lean on Washington, the momentum never left the Tide’s possession. That’s football for you, especially picking against the overwhelming favorite.

The real surprise of the day came in primetime with the Fiesta Bowl. Clemson opened up a serious can of you-know-what on Ohio State en route to an impressive 31-0 blowout win. I really do wonder how the Buckeyes were even favored in the game, but I did not see them just getting rolled by the Tigers. Penn State fans were likely very happy with that result though.

Urban Meyer suffered his first shutout loss as the Ohio State coach as his team ends its year with a whimper, although the biggest loser of the night might have been the selection committee. Twitter was set ablaze with hot takes from all across the sports world about how wrong the Ohio State seeding, and even selection had been for these playoffs.

What is set up though, is one hell of a national championship game. The first game between these two last season was a classic, so the rematch will have a ton of juice leading up to Monday night. This is probably the best possible outcome for the national championship game in terms of storylines and the on-field matchup.

Mixed Bag in the Rest of the New Year’s Six Bowls 

While the semifinal games were kind of “meh” the rest of the major bowl games delivered its fair share of excitement. We’ll start with yesterday’s Rose Bowl between USC and Penn State. What a game in what will go down as one of the best Rose Bowl’s in the history of the game (doesn’t touch the ’05 title game between Texas and USC but its up there).

This game was rich with exciting twists, turns, and huge plays. USC controlled the game for much of the first half but looked left for dead once the second half started. Penn State closed the first half with a touchdown to make it 27-21 at the break. The Nittany Lions then opened the half with an offensive onslaught rarely seen on the big stage. Three plays for three touchdowns. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Penn State ripped off a pair of 70+ yard touchdowns and then turned a Brandon Bell interception into a short touchdown. Boom! Just like that, the Nittany Lions were up 42-27 within the first five minutes of the third quarter. Penn State carried a 14-point lead into the fourth quarter with USC reeling and looking defeated.

All of a sudden though, USC came alive in the late stages of the fourth quarter. Redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Darnold looked like a cold-blooded killer leading the comeback charge. A star-making performance for the young USC QB brought the game all even with just over a minute left in the game.

Penn State still had its chance to salvage a victory out of a blown fourth quarter lead until quarterback Trace McSorely threw his third interception of the night on his own side of the field. With USC on the fringe of field goal range they only needed a few yards to give kicker Sam Boermeester a chance to kick the game-winner, which he would do from 46-yards out as the clock expired. This was easily the game of the weekend.

The early “game of the weekend” in the clubhouse before Sunday was Friday night’s Orange Bowl between Florida State and Michigan. The Seminoles upset the Wolverines in a 33-32 thriller. Granted, Michigan was without star defensive player Jabrill Peppers, who was a late scratch from the game with a hamstring injury.

Florida State running back Dalvin Cook took home Orange Bowl MVP honors capping off his collegiate career with a monster night against a tough Michigan defense. Cook rushed for 145 yards and touchdown while adding another 62 receiving yards. While Cook will be playing on Sundays next year, much of this Florida State team will be back next season and will make them one of the favorites in the national title chase.

For Michigan, it was a very disappointing end to a promising season. The Wolverines finished the year losing three out of its last four games by a total of five points. That is certainly a tough way to go out, but Michigan will be locked and loaded next season. We’ll have to wait and see whether or not Peppers will be back in the fold though. His intentions to enter the NFL draft will be one of the top situations to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

While the Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl delivered some compelling action, the same can’t be said for the Sugar Bowl and Cotton Bowl. Wisconsin picked up the only New Year’s Six victory for the Big Ten conference, taking down Cinderella story Western Michigan 24-16 in the Cotton Bowl. The Badgers were in control all game long making short work of the previously undefeated Broncos.

The MAC champions weren’t exactly outclassed in this game but just didn’t have the talent to overcome a very tough Wisconsin team. I’m still in shock that Western Michigan coach PJ Fleck didn’t get poached by a Power Five school, because the job that he has done with the Broncos has been impressive to say the least. He will be a name to keep an eye on down the line.

Finally, we get to last night’s Sugar Bowl, which saw Oklahoma dominate Auburn 35-19. The Sooners overcame an early flurry from the Tigers, and reeled off 21 unanswered points in the second half to take a 35-13 lead. Auburn would add a late touchdown but by then Oklahoma had already gave Bob Stoops his Gatorade bath. This was a case of one team knowing whom it was while the other team figuring out what the future holds. Oklahoma is getting ready to contend for a national championship next season while Auburn was left figuring out what this team will look like next year. Hopefully the national championship game can erase the memory of this clunker from our collective memory.

NFL Postseason is Set, And the Coaching Carousel Begins

The last Sunday of the NFL regular season lacked the drama of past years but regardless the field is set for the postseason. New England, Dallas, Kansas City, and Atlanta all secured first round byes (New England and Dallas have home-field advantage throughout the postseason). Aside from figuring out the final wild card in the NFC, there wasn’t much to be decided on Sunday. I’ll have more on the playoffs this week, starting with tomorrow’s “No Huddle.”

Sunday’s games were overshadowed by the litany of coaching and GM vacancies that opened throughout the day. The real shocker of the beginning of the coaching carousel was the abrupt retirement of Denver head coach Gary Kubiak. Citing health and family reasons, the Super Bowl winning coach is hanging up his clipboard. Kubiak’s sudden retirement certainly turned many heads and opens up a juicy spot with the soon-to-be former Super Bowl champions.

Two West Coast teams swiftly cleaned house prior to the beginning of the Sunday night game. One move was a mild surprise while the other move had been coming for weeks. San Diego fired coach Mike McCoy following another season that will find them drafting the in top-ten in the upcoming NFL draft.

I do think McCoy got the short end of the stick considering all of the injuries that the Chargers have endured over the past two years. That is the nature of the beast though. Keep an eye on this situation because with Philip Rivers and a good amount of talent on this roster, the Chargers could be primed for a quick turnaround if the right coach gets the job (Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia would be a great hire for this team).

Now the move that should have come as no surprise to anyone that follows the NFL is San Francisco’s firings of coach Chip Kelly and GM Trent Baalke. The 49ers had to hit the reset button on the front office/head coach following a meteoric collapse that saw this team go from a Super Bowl appearance four seasons ago to the 2-14 season this year. There are a ton of factors that led to this, but the fact remains that Baalke needed to go having failed to retool this roster following the shocking rate of retirements/departures and that meant Kelly was out the door as well (which all but ends the Chip Kelly experiment in the NFL).

As it stands now, there are six head coaching vacancies across the NFL and potentially more by the end of the season. It should be very interesting to see who ends up where, but this is always intriguing part of the offseason. Also, nothing is set in stone until the guy signs on the dotted line so be wary of the countless rumors you will see in the next few weeks.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my power rankings of the playoff teams in “No Huddle.” Be on the look out for my fantasy football awards later this week in the final “Reality of Fantasy” of the season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.