It’s day 2 of the NFL preview and I am already making changes to the schedule. With some uncertainty around the injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman in New England (according to reports its nothing too serious), I wanted to hold off on previewing the AFC East until next week. So rather than leave you all high and dry with no preview for today, I’m going to give the people what they want. I’m going to look at the AFC West, home of the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos.

Denver Broncos

Before the confetti could even settle down in Denver following its Super Bowl victory over Carolina the Broncos were faced with some uncertainty going into its title defense. Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset into retirement. His heir apparent, Brock Osweiler, left in free agency to lead the new look Houston offense. Now the Broncos are left with even more question marks at the most important position in the game. Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian are locked in a battle for the starting job, and you have to wonder how it even got to that point.

As last season showed the Broncos defense could carry this team to the Promised Land but can they do it again? The short answer is yes. This defense has “all-time great” potential as they showed last season. Resigning Von Miller to a huge contract should be evidence to this team’s commitment to the defensive side of the ball.

This is a team that should squarely be in playoff contention in a perfect world, but as professional wrestling icon Sting used to say, “the only thing for sure is that nothing is for sure.” The Broncos have won this division five years in a row for the first time in franchise history, but a sixth is not quite a forgone conclusion.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs looked dead in the water last season following a 1-5 start and losing star running back Jamaal Charles to a torn ACL. Just as everyone seemed to write off Kansas City, the regrouped and rattled off ten straight wins to clinch a Wild Card spot. The emergence of running backs Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware certainly played into that winning streak. The Chiefs backfield is loaded this season so expect to see a little bit of Charles, West and Ware each week. Jeremy Maclin produced another solid season in his first year in Kansas City finally giving Alex Smith an outside weapon to rely upon.

KC is rock solid on the defensive end, but the offense doesn’t exactly torch opposing defenses. The playoff loss to New England exposed this team’s biggest problem as currently constructed. The Chiefs need to play with a lead in order to rely on a dangerous defensive unit. That defense can be lethal to opposing offenses when they are let loose. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are a pincer move waiting happen on the ends. Both can make life a living hell for opposing quarterbacks. Eric Berry anchors the secondary and is in a contract year after winning Comeback Player of the Year last season. Not to be forgotten is Marcus Peters, last season’s Defensive Rookie of the Year. Peters had an incredible season for the Chiefs and looks like a star in this league already.

The schedule could become a bit of a concern. An early bye week could spell some trouble for Andy Reid’s team since there won’t be an opportunity to regroup if they get off to another slow start. The make or break stretch comes midseason playing at Carolina, Denver and Atlanta with a home game against an upstart Tampa Bay. That being said this is a playoff team that will need to recapture that fire from last season to carry themselves deep into the playoffs. Kansas City is the team that can dethrone Denver in this division, and I believe they will.

 

Oakland Raiders

It is a little ironic that the Raiders are considering a move to Las Vegas in the future, and currently find themselves as the wild card of this division. Derek Carr and company showed promise last season, staying in the playoff hunt until late in the season. Amari Cooper showed flashes of stardom last season. Michael Crabtree is coming off a rebound season. The rankings from last season were nothing special but they looked good based on the eye test. Things are looking up for the silver and black, especially if they can improve in the running game which ranked near the bottom in every category last season.

On the other side of the football, All-Pro Khalil Mack anchors the Raiders. Mack emerged as one of the leagues premier defenders last season in the mold of Denver’s Von Miller. This defense did lose a future Hall of Famer in Charles Woodson but the front seven can hold up its end of the bargain. The loss of Woodson may mean a drop in the takeaway numbers, which will be a major area to watch for this defense.

The schedule down the stretch is downright scary, bookended by Carolina and the regular season finale in Denver. A hot start for the Raiders could be the key to getting into the playoffs for the first time in over a decade.

 

San Diego Chargers

San Diego will need some divine intervention to contend in this division. The defense lost its captain Eric Weddle to Baltimore in a Hollywood style divorce. Now they find themselves in a contract standoff with Joey Bosa, the team’s top draft choice. This is a defensive unit that lacks the ability to rush the passer (2^nd fewest sacks in the NFL) and ranked in the bottom half of the league in other key defensive categories.

Offensively the outlook doesn’t look too bright either. Phillip Rivers racked up good numbers on a bad team, but fell off the map as the season progressed. A sub-par offensive line and a litany of injuries held back this offense that showed some promise. The return of a healthy Keenan Allen and the acquisition of Travis Benjamin should help return some of the explosiveness on the outside. This is a team that is going to have to throw a ton to stay in games.

The Chargers look poised to finish at the bottom division again and find themselves drafting in the top five next May.

 

Check back Monday when I’ll look at the NFC North. Tomorrow I’ll be debuting the Weekend Viewer Guide. Keep the conversation going in the comments section. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmoney and give the Facebook page a like.

Football fans rejoice! In less than a month we are going to have meaningful football back in our lives. That isn’t to totally dismiss the preseason (well kind of), but it is only a tease for the main attraction. It’s been another wild offseason in the best reality show on television but we’ve finally made it. Peyton Manning gracefully rode off into retirement. Tom Brady accepted his Deflategate suspension, ending the 500+ day debacle (don’t worry, the NFL just started another ordeal with the Al-Jjazerra investigation).

Before I spin my wheels too much on what has already happened this offseason, it’s time to look forward to this season. This is a beautiful time of year where everyone has a sliver of hope sitting at 0-0. I will be going division by division over the next few days giving you a quick outlook for each team and a storyline or two to keep an eye on going into the 2016 season.

Today I will be looking at the NFC East, which always seems to be one of the most interesting divisions in the league, even when none of the teams look like a Super Bowl contender. This is always a tough division to predict year to year. There hasn’t been a repeat division champion since the 2003/’04 Eagles (sorry Washington fans). A 9-7 record was good enough to win this division last year but likely won’t be the case this year (sorry again Washington fans). So with that said lets jump right into the previews.

 

New York Giants

The Giants parted ways with Tom Coughlin after a disappointing finish to last season and promoted offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo to head coach. Then addressed some serious defensive needs signing defensive end Olivier Vernon to a huge contract and luring defensive back Janoris Jenkins away from the Rams. They added much needed talent to a defense that ranked 30^th in points allowed and last in the league in yards allowed. In addition to the free agent additions, the Giants drafted cornerback Eli Apple to help bolster the secondary.

New York has all of the offensive firepower to be in any game this season, especially with the addition of rookie Sterling Shepard in the draft and the possible return of a healthy Victor Cruz. This is an offense that ranked 6^th in scoring last season and is primed to repeat that type of performance this year. Shepard could be poised to have a great rookie season playing opposite of Odell Beckham Jr., giving Eli Manning another weapon to utilize as the season progresses.

The schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk, but the back half of the season is a spot where the Giants can make a run to clinch a division championship playing three out of the last four games against the Cowboys in Week 14 before closing the season at Philadelphia and at Washington in Weeks 16 and 17. The Giants are currently my pick to win this division, but nothing is set in stone with the way the NFC East tends to beat up on each other.

 

Washington Redskins

Washington enters this season as the defending champions in this division, but my faith in their chances to repeat just isn’t there. Quarterback Kirk Cousins put in a Herculian effort to will this team to a division title following his famous “You like that!?” outburst. Jordan Reed burst onto the scene as a game-changing target at tight end. Offensively the Redskins were ranked 10^th in scoring but aside from that there wasn’t a whole lot to love about this team. This is a passing attack that can’t be slept on, but don’t have much going on in the running game (20^th in yards, last in yards/attempt). Second year running back Matt Jones is poised to be the starter in the backfield. Jones showed some playmaking ability catching the ball out of the backfield, however I have doubts about him suddenly becoming a bell cow running back.

On the defensive side of the ball, the headline for Washington was the acquisition of All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman after his strange departure from Carolina. Norman is a much-needed addition to a defense that ranked 28^th in yards allowed and 17^th in points allowed. The question remains how Norman will fit in this defense going from a 4-3 scheme in Carolina to a 3-4 scheme in Washington. Both defenses like to play zone coverage but the talent difference is staggering. Norman won’t be able to gamble as much on passing plays and could see a drop in production. Reports out of camp haven’t been stellar for Norman either, so this is a situation to keep an eye on for Washington.

The schedule for Washington is brutal this season, having to play all of the NFC division winners in addition to the NFC North and AFC North. Following their Week 9 bye, the Redskins have to play against Minnesota, Green Bay, Arizona, and Carolina along the home stretch. The wheels could fall off in a big way, even if they play well against the NFC East.

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

The Cowboys are hoping to put the disastrous 2015 season behind them with quarterback Tony Romo returning from injury. If you ever doubted the value of a backup quarterback, last year in Dallas should be a prime example of that position’s value. Once Romo went down with a shoulder injury, this offense lacked any explosion (even after Dez Bryant returned from his own injury). A lost 2015 regular season netted the Cowboys the fourth pick in the draft, which they used to draft running back Ezekiel Elliot out of Ohio State. Elliot has all of the tools to be a workhorse for the Dallas offense running behind the best offensive line in the NFL. This running game has the potential to recapture the production from two years ago when DeMarco Murray led the NFL in rushing.

With all of that potential on offense, there isn’t much to be said about this defense. A rash of suspensions have ravaged this defense, which was not that great to begin with (middle of the pack in points allowed and yards allowed, ranked last in takeaways). Dallas will have to minimize the amount of time this unit spends on the field, similar to the 2014 season. Dominating time of possession is the only chance the Cowboys will have to make sure this defense won’t hold back a potentially electric running game.

Dallas’s schedule catches a bit of a breather playing the last place teams from the NFC. However the most realistic route to the playoffs for the Cowboys will be to win this division similar to Washington last season, as the Wild Card teams are likely to come from the North and the West divisions. While there is a route to the playoffs, expect the defense for Dallas to hinder its chances to return to the postseason.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Where do I start with the Eagles? Chip Kelly didn’t even make it out of last season before getting the big ugly axe. Philadelphia went back to the Andy Reid coaching tree, bringing in Doug Pederson to take over as head coach. Then, after resigning Sam Bradford to a two-year deal the Eagles traded up to the second pick in the draft to take Carson Wentz (could be awhile before we see him in action). Former rushing king DeMarco Murray was dealt to Tennessee after a failed season in 2015. This leaves Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, and rookie Wendell Smallwood to carry the load.

Expect this offense to resemble the old Andy Reid offense in terms of scheme but there are question marks all over this side of the ball. Jordan Matthews had a down year in 2015, struggling with drops all season before finally breaking out of late in the season. He is currently dealing with a bone bruise in his knee. Aside from Matthews, the receiving corps is nothing to get excited over, although yesterday’s acquisition of Dorial Green-Beckham adds a bit of promise to the long-term outlook at this position. This offense won’t score a ton of points and will have to rely on controlling the clock (I just pray Pederson manages the clock better than Andy Reid for their sake).

During the Chip Kelly era, the Eagles defense was a joke at times. That might not be the case in the Doug Pederson era. The key addition here is the signing of Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator bringing a return to the 4-3 scheme.

That scheme shift will highlight the team’s best unit, its defensive line. Led by Fletcher Cox, who is poised for a potential All-Pro season, the defensive line can wreak havoc on opposing offenses and protect the secondary, which has been royally exposed in recent seasons. Another name to watch on this defensive line is Vinny Curry, who was comically misused in the old 3-4 defense, and finally gets to play his natural position as a 4-3 defensive end. Middle linebacker Jordan Hicks returns from injury and will be the signal caller for the defense once again. Hicks was a pleasant surprise as a rookie before his season was cut short. The Eagles looked lost on defense without him after his injury. Philadelphia’s defense could be the surprise of this division.

The schedule is tough especially dealing with an early bye week and having to play 13 straight weeks to finish the year. We’ll know a lot more about the identity of this team in Week 3 when the Eagles host the Steelers. Much like the Cowboys, the Eagles will have to win this division to have a shot at the playoffs.

 

Check back tomorrow as I continue my NFL season preview with the AFC East. Leave your own thoughts on the NFC East in the comments. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney or like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

It is that time of year again football fans. Training camps are open and preseason games are just around the corner. Just as the players and teams are preparing for the long season ahead, so are the fantasy football players. We scour through rankings, predictions, and team reports on a daily basis in order for our own shot at glory.

Fantasy football at its core is a tediously simple game, but as the saying goes, knowledge is power. This is the first fantasy post of the season so I will go over some of the basics of putting together a contender for your own league. We all have to start somewhere, so here is a list of five tips you need to going into draft day.

 

1) Preseason Rankings Can Be Deceiving

Every season brings with it a cavalcade of fantasy experts and their well researched and prepared rankings. While these are a pretty decent indicator of where the players will ultimately end up, often times there are giant swings and misses that are bound to happen. Injuries are unpredictable and will be the main reason a top-20 player fails to make the grade. Add to that the prospects of one of those guys having a down year, and you can see there is clearly room for error by even the best fantasy analysts.

Look at the preseason rankings from last year (I’m using ESPN’s consensus top 300, for the record this is standard scoring and not PPR) and you will see a few names that will make you cringe. Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, and CJ Anderson burned many fantasy owners who invested high value picks on them with a combination of injuries and poor performances. Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, and Marshawn Lynch all saw their seasons cut short due to injuries. For the record, all six were ranked in the top ten last season.

Just because you snagged a top ranked player doesn’t always mean that is what you get. Buyers beware and always have a plan B. Often times; you are going to need it.

 

2) The Waiver Wire is Your Best Friend

Speaking of plan B, the waiver wire is likely where you will find the player to fit that bill. Success on Sundays will depend on your diligence on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The previous week’s breakout star can be a solid addition for the following week and beyond. Fantasy owners who picked up Devonta Freeman and David Johnson last season will be the first ones to attest to that. Hell, Tim Hightower likely won people fantasy championships after the Saints signed him off of his couch late last season (he was the 2nd best running back in the fantasy playoffs).

Now that is not to say that every week you should be picking up Joe Schmo and inserting him into your lineup. Most leagues incorporate rules for the waiver wire that designate which player gets the first crack at the waiver pool. However, you should always be mindful of who’s available, which is why most sites have a “Watch List” tool in order to keep track of these guys. Waiver priority is one of your most valuable assets during the season. Carefully utilizing that asset is the difference between snagging that midseason sleeper and having to resort to a “hit or miss” player.

 

3) Find Value Wherever You Can

Fantasy football is ultimately like playing the stock market. There is a quantitative aspect that the fantasy elite have turned to in recent years in order to more accurately predict the outcomes. So what does that mean for the fantasy novice? Simply put, you will need to do your homework.

Draft day is the first opportunity to strike gold. Understanding where value can be found is paramount to your success. You only have 16-20 picks in a draft so you have to maximize each one. Taking a late flier on someone you like is okay when the opportunity is there late but in order to do so you need a solid base to take those risks.

This brings me to the position that you will a couple of guys in your league reach on every year: quarterback. While it is nice to have Aaron Rodgers as your QB1, the price tag to get him can often be steep when you look at where you can grab other top ten quarterbacks in the draft. For example, last season in PPR leagues Alex Smith outscored Rob Gronkowski. Gronk was a 1^st or 2^nd round pick, whereas Smith went undrafted and is considered a backup in fantasy leagues. Blake Bortles and Derek Carr finished inside and just outside the top ten respectively. Both were either drafted in the waning rounds or went undrafted in most leagues.

 

4) The Receiving Revolution is Upon Us

PPR leagues likely have already noticed this shift, but this is the first season where the standard scoring leagues have caught up. Wide receivers are taking over as the dominant fantasy players. The NFL is a pass happy league especially considering the rule changes making it tougher for defenses to slow down these high-octane passing attacks.

While there are only a handful of elite level running backs, they take a ton of punishment on a week to week basis making them a bit riskier to rely on to be healthy. Since there are only a few of these elite level backs in the league, more teams have resorted to the dreaded “running back by committee” which the bane of a fantasy owners existence.

Receivers tend to be more reliable and safer bets to produce week in and week out. Standard scoring bites into their value a bit, but in PPR leagues guys like Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., and Julio Jones are the golden geese.

 

5) The Numbers Game

This bit of advice birthed from a strategy discussed by ESPN’s Matthew Berry in his annual Draft Day Manifesto. Ultimately, this is the best way to understand how to build a fantasy football team. I mentioned before that fantasy football is a bit like the stock market. It is slightly advanced method of prepping for the season and takes a good amount of legwork to perfect. If you put in the work, you can give yourself a great chance to succeed every week.

Every week brings a simple challenge; outscore your opponent (cue the “thanks captain obvious”). Whether it is a standard scoring or PPR variant league there is an optimal number you want your team to reach that can assure a chance of victory. In some leagues breaking 100 points is a nice feather in your cap but won’t always mean a win. The nice thing about being in the same league year to year is having the archived scores to help determine the optimal number to win (finding the average of winning scores is a good barometer).

For the sake of time let’s just assume you don’t have that information so here’s a rough estimate of what an optimal score would be in a few different leagues:

      10 Team Standard – 120 points                10 Team Full PPR – 150 points

      12 Team Standard – 100 points                 12 Team Full PPR – 130 points

So now that we have these numbers in mind, the next step is to know what you’re going to need to reach this number. Remember, this is just an ideal benchmark to be competitive. Sometimes you’ll need some luck to win if you miss the mark on a particular week or if you find yourself in a shootout.

Position-wise the mindset is to grab players that will consistently produce. Your top two players (RB1, WR1, or even a WR2) should always score at least 18+ points on a weekly basis. Quarterbacks need about 15+ points a week. After that your second and third tier players need to hit double digits in order to make this strategy work. Since these second and third tier players aren’t “studs” every week, this means playing the matchups and having a deep bench.

You also may have noticed by now I haven’t mentioned defenses or kickers once in this article. That is for good reason. These two positions are easily replaceable, and there are always a few matchups to exploit. Streaming these positions week to week ensures you keep your valuable bench spots reserved for receivers, running backs, and even a second tight end to keep our optimal score attainable.

Another point that can’t be overlooked is the schedule. Bye weeks can be a roadblock to reaching your scoring goal. Plan for bye weeks accordingly.

This strategy won’t guarantee success but it will keep your team competitive week in and week out. Fantasy football is often a war of attrition, you will lose games but understanding how much you need to score and how to do so will keep you in the playoff hunt.

        I got a little serious there for a while, but just remember this is supposed to be fun. Bragging rights are a great to have with a group of friends so the stakes are somewhat high. This should be a good start to your preparation for anyone new to the game.

        Keep the conversation going in the comments section and follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney. Send your questions to me and I will possibly feature it in my first fantasy football mailbag next week. Also be on the look out for the first episode of the Reality of Fantasy podcast later this month.

As Tony Stark once said, “Oh its good to be back.”

After much planning and preparation I can finally re-enter the blogosphere better than ever. So with this post allow me to launch a revamped version of Shooting the Moon.

My vision is simple, this is a place for me to share my thoughts and opinions on the world of sports. I want to offer up angles that you may not read in this vast abyss of the hot take culture that we have seen evolve over the years. This will likely be the shortest post you will see since I don’t like to stroke my own ego.

So with that said let me welcome all of you out there in the sports world to the new and improved Shooting the Moon.