Labor Day weekend is finally here! Unfortunately for some that means the end of summer. For sports fans, it means college football is upon us. The NFL takes a back seat for one week as the collegiate game gets its time in the spotlight. What a weekend it is going to be. Saturday may be one of the best slates of games for an opening weekend we have ever seen. Monumental matchups get this season started on the right foot, so lets jump right in and highlight what you need to be watching this weekend.

Friday (9/2)

Kansas State vs. #9 Stanford (9:00 PM, Fox Sports 1)

Christian McCaffery is worth the price of admission for this one folks. Last year’s Heisman runner-up dazzled last season en route to setting a new NCAA record for all-purpose yards. That record was previously held by Barry Sanders, just so you get an idea of how impressive that is. Last we saw McCaffery he sliced and diced his way through the Iowa defense, winning the Rose Bowl MVP. He tallied 279 all-purpose yards and a touchdown as the Cardinal trounced the Hawkeyes 45-16. Tonight’s game will be a nice preview of a potentially electric season by the Stanford star running back.

Saturday (9/3)

Wall-to-wall college football all day, everyone has their own teams and allegiances. Obviously I’m not going to tell you to not watch your team in favor of one of the games I think will steal the weekend. Here are some of the games to keep an eye on though.

#3 Oklahoma vs. #15 Houston (12:00 PM, ABC)

Wasting no time on Saturday, we get our first top-25 matchup of the season. The Sooners are the favorite in the Big 12 with national championship aspirations while the Cougars looked to shock the college football landscape. Oklahoma is a double-digit favorite but don’t rule anything out in a road game this early in the season.

#16 UCLA vs. Texas A&M (3:30 PM, CBS)

This matchup features a potential future #1 NFL draft pick in UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen. He leads the Bruins into extremely hostile territory against the Aggies. UCLA is a dark horse national title contender, and we’ll get a good first look at what this team is made of in Rosen’s sophomore year. This will be the best of the 3:30 PM games (yes, I know Leonard Fournette and LSU play Wisconsin, but that’ll be a blowout) so keep an eye on this scoreboard if you’re watching your hometown team.

#1 Alabama vs. #20 USC (8:00 PM, ABC)

The defending national champions open up the season in Arlington, Texas once again this season. Alabama faces a much better opponent this year in the Trojans. USC is one of the most talented teams in the country and could give the Crimson Tide a bit of a run. However, this is Alabama we are talking about. Nick Saban has said he will play both of his quarterbacks in this game, which is a risky strategy but Saban pulled it off last season against Wisconsin. I’m not going to ring the alarm for an upset alert here although I actually don’t think Alabama covers the 11.5 point spread (for you gamblers out there). Sunday (9/4)

#10 Notre Dame vs. Texas (7:30 PM, ABC)

This game has a little bit of everything. Notre Dame is a national title contender with two dark horse Heisman candidates at quarterback. Both are playing in this game in one of the toughest places to play in the country. On the other side is Texas, with head coach Charlie Strong squarely on the hot seat and in serious need of showing improvement. The Longhorns were one of the most inexperienced teams last season and return a ton of starters while the Fighting Irish are replacing key players on offense. While I wasn’t willing to put Alabama on upset alert, I will put Notre Dame on notice here. This is a potential upset waiting to happen.

Monday (9/5)

#11 Ole Miss vs. #4 Florida St. (8:00 PM, ABC)

A long weekend demands another day for the Weekend Viewer Guide. Luckily we are getting served up one hell of a Labor Day clash. Florida State is a favorite to win the national title, and Ole Miss is far from a cupcake. This virtual top-10 matchup (okay top-11 put who’s counting) will be the perfect way to end one of the best opening weekends in recent memory.

 

Everyone have a fun and safe holiday weekend! I’ll working on Monday to get ahead of the NFL season preview in an effort to finish before the season kicks off on Thursday. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon Page on Facebook.

 

 

Well it’s been another busy week with the end of the summer and football fast approaching. I’m playing a little bit of catch up today so this will be the first of a couple posts today. The other day I looked at the best fantasy offenses. Today I will be looking at the “limited” offenses that you should avoid if you don’t get the main source of production. I’ll finish up with a couple more breakout players you should keep your eye on late in your draft.

When I talk about a “limited” fantasy offense, I’m talking about a one-dimensional offense, or an offense where there are only one or two go-to options. That doesn’t mean these are bad offenses but these are where headaches will come from for a fantasy owner for not having the right guys. So here is the top three offenses that will have limited options this season.

(1) Minnesota Vikings

This is an archaic scheme that is run in Minnesota and a throwback to the old-school style of offense in the NFL. The only player worth any investment for fantasy purposes is Adrian Peterson. That is a bit obvious considering every season Peterson has played more than one game, he has been a top-five option in fantasy. Now there was a glimmer of hope that Stefon Diggs and Laquon Treadwell would be relevant this season. That was right up until quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a horrific non-contact injury that left him with a torn ACL and a dislocated knee.

Truthfully, this makes me a little more wary of Peterson as a top selection in fantasy drafts this season. He should still be a first rounder, but I might be a more inclined to go with Todd Gurley, David Johnson, or even Ezekiel Elliot because I believe all three may have a higher season than Peterson with Bridgewater done for the season.

(2) New England Patriots

You can call me crazy, but unless I’m getting Rob Gronkowski or Tom Brady, I don’t want to get too invested in the Patriots. That’s especially true if you don’t play PPR. This offense is loaded to the teeth with weapons for Brady to throw to outside of Gronk. The issue is this is a gameplan-oriented offense that picks on the weakness of the opposing defenses. In the past that meant having to worry about which running back would get the majority of the work. Now, I believe that touchdowns will come at a premium outside of Gronk (even his numbers could see a small regression in terms of receptions and yards). Even PPR legend Julian Edelman won’t be the slam-dunk fantasy option that he has been in the past. If you want to deal with a weekly headache, this will be the offense that causes it. You may get lucky a few times, but more often than not Bill Belicheck will have different plans in mind than helping you get a win in your fantasy matchup.

(3) Denver Broncos

If you watched the Broncos or owned one of them in fantasy last season, then you already know. Long gone are the days where this offense was setting league records left and right. Peyton Manning is enjoying retirement, and in steps former seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Unfortunately for Siemian, he could be one reason why this is a “limited” fantasy offense. He is completely unproven and is being thrown in to lead the defending Super Bowl champions. There are some weapons here, which leads me to believe that receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders might be the only players worth owning. And don’t even get me started with C.J. Anderson; his inconsistency spoke volumes about his fantasy value last season.

* Avoiding the secondary, or even tertiary, players in these offense will save you a lot of trouble this fantasy season. It also furthers the point I tried to make earlier this week that just because a team is successful doesn’t mean that makes it a great fantasy offense.

Okay, so let’s quickly jump into some late-round sleepers to target late in your fantasy drafts. I’m going to try to keep this short and sweet so bear with me if I don’t give you the full book on these guys.

 

Derrick Henry, RB Tennessee Titans

The former Heisman trophy winner has looked great in the preseason, and with that his ADP is rising (I had to get him in the 10^th round in my PPR keeper draft). He is clearly the backup right now behind former rushing champion DeMarco Murray, but you can’t deny what Henry has shown so far. The Titans improved the offensive line, and want to feature both of these running backs. Henry is the guy that will provide the best rate of return between both running backs.

Tyler Boyd, WR Cincinnati Bengals

AJ Green is still the top dog in this offense, but with the loss of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency, someone needs replace that production. Boyd looks poised to be that guy. The rookie from Pittsburgh should start in the slot and will see plenty of targets from Andy Dalton, especially with Tyler Eifert out at least the first month of the season. Unless you are in a cutthroat league, you may be able to rob Boyd late in your draft and laugh it up once he breaks out. This is a PPR stud in the making.

Jesse James, TE Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Ben’s long-time tight end Heath Miller retired in the offseason leaving a void at the position. Pittsburgh thought it had the solution when Ladarius Green signed a four-year deal in free agency. Now it looks like Green may never even see the field due to complications from concussions. Jesse James is plan-B at tight end, which may not be the worst thing in the world. James measures in at 6’7” and could be an amazing red zone target for the Steelers. Big Ben loved throwing to Miller in tough situations, and James could carve out a similar role with the opportunity the injuries to Green may afford him.

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for a late edition of the Weekend Viewer Guide. Send me your thoughts in the comments section or through social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook..

I’ve often talked about fantasy football being like a stock market. Which player or team are you investing in over the course of the regular season? That question doesn’t have a simple answer given the nature of the NFL. All we can do is use the information we have and the history we have seen in order to make educated guesses to make our investment.

The key is to understanding what you are investing in and the risks that come with it. Sure, you can snag a target monster in a bad offense, but he’s likely the only guy there, which means he can be shut down on a given week. The same goes for grabbing a key player in a prolific offense. You know there will be consistency, but will he really hit his potential ceiling, or remain close to the high floor his offense provides?

Last season, people bought heavily into the Green Bay offense and they flopped from a fantasy perspective (I was one of those poor souls). Jacksonville didn’t win many games but they were a stellar fantasy offense. Minnesota was a playoff team, but outside of Adrian Peterson, there wasn’t anyone that could be a great fantasy player for you. I could do this all day, but you essentially get the point. A great fantasy offense doesn’t always translate to actual success in the NFL. Don’t be so quick to dismiss the prospect of taking a guy from a bad team, more times than not you may have found yourself something.

Before I get too far off track, today I will be taking a look at the top five offenses that you should be buying stock in this season.

(1) Green Bay Packers

 

Okay so remember when I said Green Bay flopped in fantasy last year? Well they did. However that is in the past, it’s a new year and this offense will be bolstered by the return of the key player in the offense, Jordy Nelson. In 2014 when this offense was healthy you could make the argument that this was the #1 fantasy offense, and it wasn’t even close. Aaron Rodgers was a top-3 quarterback, Nelson was a top-3 receiver, Randall Cobb was a top-15 receiver, and Eddie Lacy was a top-10 running back.

This year, Nelson is healthy again, which slides Cobb back to his natural spot as the slot receiver. It also lightens the box for a slimmer Lacy, who is also in a contract year. Oh, and Rodgers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the game. It’ll cost you high value picks, but the rate of return should be very worthwhile for you. Invest with confidence in the Packers offense.

(2) Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Pittsburgh has it all on offense, even without Martavis Bryant as he serves a one-year suspension. Antonio Brown is flat-out the best receiver in football, and given the way the rules are in the secondary is almost impossible to cover. He’s the number one overall player regardless of the format you play. Ben Roethlisberger can put up some serious numbers in the passing game, he’ll feed Brown with consistency and will find the other receivers for big plays. Sammie Coates is being tabbed as a breakout player this year, and he should slide right into the Bryant role opposite Brown on offense.

The running backs are fantastic here as well. Le’Veon Bell is serving a three-game suspension but once he returns will be a top-5 running back if healthy. DeAngelo Williams is the backup and has found the fountain of youth in Pittsburgh. Williams will fill in nicely for Bell during the suspension and in the case of an injury. Unless Big Ben goes down, this offense will be humming all year long.

(3) Carolina Panthers

The reigning MVP Cam Newton put up insane numbers last season, and from the looks of it finally had things click in the passing game. Newton’s running ability makes this rushing attack lethal and aids whoever is in the backfield with him. Jonathan Stewart is currently the starter and had a nice season prior to his late season injury. Cameron Artis-Payne is the guy to target late in a draft, or in free agency later this year if you want in on this running game.

The passing attack is where the big improvement was last year. Carolina gets its top receiver Kelvin Benjamin back from an injury, and adds another dimension to this offense. Tight end Greg Olsen was Mr. Reliable for the Panthers and will be a top-5 option at his position. Devin Funchess is having an amazing training camp and is a guy to target in the middle-to-late stages of the draft.

(4) Arizona Cardinals

This is the most aggressive offense in football, as head coach Bruce Arians is always looking to push the ball down the field. That is good news for us in fantasy. Quarterback Carson Palmer is getting up there in age and has some injury concerns, but when he is healthy will put up gaudy passing numbers. John Brown, Michael Floyd, and Larry Fitzgerald all had solid fantasy seasons last year and are primed to replicate those performances.

The x-factor for this offense and the guy that has dominated the preseason talk about the Cardinals is second-year running back David Johnson. This guy is a home run hitter and can score any time he touches the ball. Johnson is electric in the passing game, which will give him a high scoring floor in compliment with his rushing ability. Again, this all hinges on the health of Palmer, but you can’t deny the production when this offense is running on all cylinders.

(5) Seattle Seahawks

 

This one comes with a bit of a clarification. The numbers this offense put up last season were ridiculous in terms of volume, but even more so in terms of efficiency. The touchdown-to-attempts ratio was incredibly low compared to the rest of the league, so lets temper expectations a bit. That being said, Russell Wilson is the engine that makes this offense go. He is a magician in the pocket and is able to make impossible plays happen on the run. This is where that touchdown-to-attempts ratio comes into play. Wilson makes something out of nothing regularly and when he throws off of scrambling he will make defenses pay dearly for not keeping discipline. That means potentially big plays for Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockette (another breakout candidate for this season).

The running game will be an interesting area to watch. Thomas Rawls looked like “Beast Mode-lite” until he went down with a season-ending ankle injury. He has yet to do anything this preseason, but in his absence, Christine Michael has looked more than capable of filling the void should Rawls stumble out of the gates.

If there is one guy to avoid here, its tight end Jimmy Graham, who is returning from a patellar tear. This is one of the most difficult injuries to come back from, and even if he does, Graham didn’t look like a good fit in this offense.

 

 

Tomorrow I’ll be looking at the limited player offenses, and some more breakout players to target. Join in the conversation in the comments section or on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

It’s Monday so that means its time to recap the weekend that was in sports. No there wasn’t an absolute showstopper this weekend although it was another good weekend my fellow sports fanatics.

The NFL preseason gave us a full slate of dress rehearsals with mixed results for many teams (more on that later this week). For my money, the best thing I saw this weekend was the show that Packers quarterback Joe Callahan put on in San Francisco on Friday night. The Wesley College product showed poise in the face of pressure and lit up the 49ers defense. His numbers would have been gaudy if his receivers could have cut out a few drops. Callahan earned some high praise from Aaron Rodgers, who called him a “gamer.” From the looks of things, he may have earned himself a spot with the Packers this season, most likely on the practice squad to start the year.

Overshadowed by the Colin Kaepernick/National Anthem protest reaction from this weekend was the Cowboys loss of quarterback Tony Romo due to a broken vertebra in his back. Romo suffered the injury on the third play of the Cowboys opening drive against Seattle. On the surface this could spell doom for Dallas if you recall how bad things looked last season, however there is a glimmer of hope. Fifth-round pick Dak Prescott has impressed this preseason and will be given the reigns until Romo is able to return midseason (unless of course he wins the job in the eyes of Stephen Jones).

College football officially kicked off this past weekend (although the big boys won’t be playing until this coming weekend). I’m kicking myself for not putting North Dakota State vs. Charleston Southern on the Weekend Viewer Guide. NDSU won in an overtime thriller against the sixth ranked FCS team in the country to kick off another title defense for the five-time defending champion Bison.

I just wish the FBS opener met the excitement level of this game. Cal vs. Hawaii was a high-scoring snooze (which is apparently a thing). Once the novelty of the game being played in Australia wore off, the game ceased to interesting.

Getting away from football, I want to give a shout-out to the team from Maine-Endwell, New York for winning the Little League World Series yesterday. What a game that ended up being as the US champions held off a late rally from the International champions from South Korea to win 2-1. By the way, the winning run was scored on a past ball (doesn’t get more little league than that). It’s the first LLWS championship won by an American team since 2011 and the first win by a Mid-Atlantic region team since 1998 when a team from Toms River, NJ won it all (and produced All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier).

As awesome as that was to see, it wasn’t the coolest moment from baseball this weekend. I’ll leave you with a moment from north of the border in Toronto. Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson hit three home runs in Sunday’s game against the Twins. Donaldson’s power surge was the cap on a three game sweep for Toronto. After the third home run in the eighth inning, the fans in Toronto celebrated the only way they knew how, start throwing hats on the field. A hat trick in baseball, what a sight.

It’s going to be a big week of fantasy football coverage this week as the season approaches, so stay tuned for a few different articles over the next few days. Send me your thoughts in the comments section or on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Happy Friday everyone! With the end of the work week brings another edition of the Weekend Viewer Guide. There is a lot of football on tap with week 3 of the preseason currently underway, and is the closest thing we’ll get to real football for a couple of weeks. Here are some of my picks for your sports viewing pleasure this weekend.

Tonight (8/26)

ArenaBowl XXIX, Philadelphia Soul vs. Arizona Rattlers (7:00 PM, ESPN)

The Rattlers are going for its fourth title in five years while the Soul look to avenge ArenaBowl losses to Arizona in 2012 and 2013. Philadelphia is also seeking its first championship since 2008. This should be a high scoring affair since this is arena football but these are the two best teams in the AFL in the past few seasons so expect this to be quite the shootout.

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (11:00 PM, NFL Network)

 A nightcap from the west coast tonight includes our first look at Aaron Rodgers this preseason. That isn’t the reason why you should be watching though. With quarterback Brett Hundley injured, expect to get another look at quarterback Joe Callahan as he fights for a spot on the roster. The former Wesley College standout has looked good in running the offense and has showed his learning curve going from Division III to the NFL is not too steep. Callahan has been one of the most interesting stories to watch this preseason.

Saturday (8/27)

Little League World Series (International Title and US Title Games) (12:30, ABC)

One of the best events every summer, the Little League World Series has finally reached the “semi-finals” with the International and US championships and a berth in the LLWS Championship game on Sunday on the line. South Korea and Panama square off in the International championship while Kentucky and New York play for the US championship.

Tennessee Titans vs. Oakland Raiders (8:00 PM, CBS)

A matchup of two of the up and coming teams in the NFL will give us a good look at quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr. The Raiders have the opportunity to be one of the surprise teams in the NFL this season while the Titans are in year two of its rebuild around Mariota. This is the national game tomorrow night, there are five other games slated for Saturday so check your local listings for the regional coverage.

Sunday (8/28)

Little League World Series Championship Game (3:00 PM, ABC)

The championship game of the Little League World Series from Williamsport, PA is the matinee on Sunday. The representative from the United States will be looking to bring the championship back to the US for the first time since 2011. A team from the Asia-Pacific region has won the past 4 LLWS championships.

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (4:15, TBS)

A potential National League Championship Series preview between the NL Central-leading Cubs and the NL West-leading Dodgers. Chicago is trying to put the finishing touches on home field advantage with September looming. LA currently holds a two-game lead over the San Francisco Giants in the NL West, and has benefitted from a historic slide from the Giants since the All-Star break.

 

Enjoy the weekend everyone! I will be back on Monday with fantasy football coverage all week in preparation for the start of the season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Well folks, I’m powering through this post today. Unfortunately it has been a busy week for me, so I can’t really get cute and wordy today. The all-important third week of the preseason starts tonight. It will be the final look at the starters in what is essentially considered the dress rehearsal for Week 1. What a perfect reason to continue my NFL season previews with a look at the AFC East (finally!). The main storyline is Tom Brady’s four game suspension, and what the rest of this division does with the opportunity to gain ahead of the Patriots. Do I think the suspension puts this division up for grabs? Not really, but it should make things a little more interesting so let’s dive right in a see what this division will look like.

 

New England Patriots

I’m not going to lie, I really don’t think it matters that Brady is suspended this year. I feel the same way this year that I did last year when he was originally suspended. The only way the Pats don’t win this division is if they go 0-4 and suffer a couple key injuries before Brady gets back. They upgraded the offense this offseason by trading for tight end Martellus Bennett, which signals a return to the two-tight end offense that dominated defenses a few years ago. When Brady gets back, watch out. He will be playing with that chip on his shoulder yet again this year. I guess we’ll have to call this season the “Gronk You Tour Part 2” which starts in Cleveland against the Browns.

Defensively for the Pats it is the same story as the last few seasons. They may struggle at times in the early part of the season, but as the year progresses they’ll become a tough unit to beat. It’s the Belicheck way. The guy is always a step ahead of opposing coaches. This defense will certainly miss linebacker Chandler Jones, but if there is any team that can get away with trading away a stud player, it’s the Patriots.

The key part of the schedule is the four games without Brady. They likely lose the opener against Arizona, but they follow that up by playing two of their division rivals (Dolphins and Bills) before Brady’s return in Week 5. Brady will come back and likely win this division handily.

New York Jets

The Jets look to build on last season’s surprise 10-6 record. They blew a playoff berth in the end but it’s a new year. It took a while but the Jets finally brought back quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, rather than take three steps back by starting Geno Smith. With Fitzpatrick back in the fold, this offense looks ready to roll. Chris Ivory may be gone, but the addition of Matt Forte at running back gives this offense another dimension.

New York should be solid once again on the defensive end despite the losses of cornerback Antonio Cromartie and some of their depth. However they sport one of the best defensive lines in football and still have Derrelle Revis, which should give head coach Todd Bowles plenty of firepower to work with in his 3-4 scheme.

I would feel a lot better about the Jets chances to win this division if they played the Patriots during the Brady suspension. Unfortunately, they play them twice in the second half of the season. Even worse, they play the Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Steelers in a brutal stretch of games early in the season. I like this roster, but the schedule could be what keeps this team out of the playoffs again.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills sport one of the most intriguing offenses this season. I say that because I am a big fan of quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He has the potential to be a special player now that he’s cemented himself as the quarterback of the future in Buffalo. Taylor and running back Lesean McCoy could be lethal if the Bills consider using the pistol offense that Greg Roman ran in San Francisco. The receiving core could be in trouble if Sammy Watkins has complications in his surgically repaired foot after suffering a Jones fracture. Between Taylor, McCoy, and Watkins this offense is an injury or two away from being in serious trouble.

Rex Ryan’s only real addition on the defensive side of the ball was bringing in his brother Rob to be the defensive coordinator. I say that because their first and second round picks, defensive end Shaq Lawson and linebacker Reggie Ragland, are both out for the season. This defense lost defensive end Mario Williams and cornerback Leodis McKelvin to free agency as well. The Ryan brothers will have to get extremely creative to mask some of their losses.

Much like the Jets, the Bills have an important but difficult stretch in the beginning of the season. Buffalo has two division games early in the season against the Jets and Patriots with a game against the Cardinals sandwiched in between. If the Bills stumble in this stretch, they could kiss the division goodbye.

Miami Dolphins

Miami enters this season with a new head coach after a season of turmoil last year following the midseason firing of Joe Philbin. Adam Gase is now at the helm and his hoping to turn this offense into a force in this division. They lost running back Lamar Miller in free agency, which they may live to regret after he was comically misused last season. This offense will have to rely on a quick passing game, meaning quarterback Ryan Tannehill is under the microscope. He’s been hyped as a breakout player in previous season, and if he can finally live up to the hype this offense has some serious potential. Receiver Jarvis Landry turned into Mr. Reliable for the Dolphins. Miami is also hoping that second-year receiver DeVante Parker becomes a dynamic weapon.

The Dolphins defense underwent a facelift this offseason. They key losses include defensive end Olivier Vernon and cornerback Brent Grimes. Miami traded for cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Kiko Alonso after both went through disappointing seasons in Philadelphia last year. It’s a risky bet they are taking on the pair of former Eagles. The Dolphins also brought in defensive end Mario Williams to fill the void left by the loss of Vernon. This unit is in a precarious position, and the uncertainty lurks in the acquisitions to fill some pretty hefty losses.

The schedule for Miami is interesting. Opening with Seattle is less than ideal, but there is not a stretch of games where the Dolphins play a bunch of elite teams. If they can stay under the radar and in the mix, playing all three division foes at the end of the season could be the deciding factor for this division. That being said, I’m not too confident that happens due to the potential issues on defense and a learning curve on offense.

 

Next week I’ll jump back into the NFL previews with a look at the NFC South. Tomorrow is Friday, which means another edition of the Weekend Viewer Guide. Keep the conversation going in the comments or send me your thoughts on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

The final full week of August means it is draft week for many of you out there playing fantasy football (me too!). In my experience, a title isn’t won with your first three picks, but with the subsequent picks that follow. It’s all about finding a diamond in the rough in the middle-to-late stages of the draft and avoiding fool’s gold.

A perfect example of this came last year in a very competitive keeper league that I’m in with a bunch of my friends. It was the ninth round and I was looking for a running back to be a flex option or a backup to Eddie Lacy and Justin Forsett (boy did that go so wrong for me last year). I had the choice between two teammates who were both suffering from a minor injury and there had yet to be a clear decision about the starter. Luckily, I saw a tweet from the fantasy guru himself, John Hansen, who had talked to one of the veterans on the team and gave him the inside scoop at the position. With confidence I put my pick in, but little did I know at the time I just selected a top-three running back. That was Devonta Freeman from the Falcons, and the guy after me took Tevin Coleman, Freeman’s backup.

It’s those little things in fantasy that can steer you towards a potential steal in the draft. Admittedly, I got extremely lucky with the way that Freeman panned out for me last year. That being said I still picked the right guy regardless.

So now that I’ve tooted my own horn a little bit I’m going to give you three guys to keep an eye on in your draft, and three guys to stay far away from.

Target: Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants (Average Draft Position – 83)

I’m really going out on a limb on this one. Normally I’m not a big fan of drafting rookies, but it’s not often you see a guy in this situation. A second round pick out of Oklahoma currently looks like he’ll be the #2 receiver in New York opposite Odell Beckham Jr. He has reportedly been turning heading in training camp. Eli Manning has thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the last two seasons, so there is a lot of potential here for Shepard, especially in PPR.

Avoid: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (ADP – 54)

It pains me to write this after a solid season last year, but be weary of Larry Fitzgerald. He is currently dealing with an MCL sprain, which could hamper his production. Add to the mix the injury history of his quarterback, Carson Palmer, and you begin to see a few red flags this high in the draft. Arizona’s offense was prolific at times last season. This year, either grab John Brown or Michael Floyd if you’re interested in a receiving option in Arizona.

Target: Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns (ADP – 94)

Gary Barnidge literally came out of nowhere last season and turned into one of the most productive fantasy options at tight end. Now I know that it doesn’t sound like a sexy option but this guy can play. Even better? It didn’t matter who was at quarterback last season (which is good since RGIII likely won’t play every game given his history).

Avoid: Baltimore RBs (Forsett, Allen, West, Dixon) (ADP below 97)

There is zero clarity as to who will be starting, and what the carries split will ultimately look like. This has the makings of a nightmarish running back by committee at the moment. I’m avoiding this situation entirely in the draft and early portions of the season. We need more information, and the risk of picking the wrong guy is way too high. Let someone else in your league step on this potential landmine.

Target: Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders (ADP – 80)

Amari Cooper may have led the Raiders in receiving yard last season, but it was Crabtree who led them in targets, catches, and receiving TDs. He may be mediocre in the eyes of Richard Sherman, but I’ll gladly take him for my fantasy team as a WR3/Flex with upside as a potential WR2 if he replicates last season’s numbers (85 catches/922 yards/9 TDs).

Avoid: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills (ADP – 30)

Remember earlier when I said you don’t win a championship with your first three picks? Well you certainly can prevent yourself from winning one by missing with one of those top three picks. Sammy Watkins is recovering from a Jones fracture in his foot, but his ADP remains way too high to take a risk he remains healthy. He isn’t damaged goods, but he is one of a few injury risks that are a part of this offense. Even if healthy, he’s one bad play away from E.J. Manuel stepping in at quarterback.

I’ll be doing some more fantasy football prep on Thursday. Tomorrow I’ll be previewing the AFC East in part four of my 2016 NFL preview. Keep the conversation going in the comments section or send me your thoughts on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

 

Another week of preseason football is behind us as we inch closer to the start of the regular season. This week’s preseason action will feature the dress rehearsal for many teams, giving one last look at the starters before turning their attention to the regular season.

Today, I continue my 2016 NFL preview with a look to the NFC North. Last season ended in heartbreak for the Vikings and Packers in the playoffs, but both teams look ready to make another run at the Lombardi Trophy this year. It’s shaping up to be another battle at the top of the division between these two rivals, as the Lions have to adjust to life without Calvin Johnson and the Bears continue to rebuild. Let’s look at where these teams stand going into the regular season.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers enter this season with a ton of championship potential with the return of a healthy Jordy Nelson to the lineup. Without Nelson, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear in the preseason, the offense lacked the punch that we are used to seeing from Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers getting his favorite target back should make this a top offense once again. Rodgers willed this team into the playoffs last season, showing yet again why he is one of the best in the business.

You could also make the argument that Green Bay basically played without running back Eddie Lacy last season. He battled through inconsistent play, injuries, and was even benched the night before a game for a team rules violation. Lacy spent all offseason working with P90X creator Tony Horton. He looks slimmed down and ready to reclaim his starting spot in the backfield. It’s a contract year for Lacy as well, so look for him to be playing with a serious chip on his shoulder.

Green Bay’s defense dodged a bullet with linebackers Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers avoiding suspensions from the league last week for not complying with the NFL’s investigation in the Al Jazeera PED story from last year. With both of them presumably clear of punishments for now, this defense looks ready to build on some of the successes from last season. This unit ranked near the middle of the NFL in points and yards allowed, 12^th and 16^th respectively (via Pro Football Reference). This doesn’t have to be a shutdown unit, and playing bend but don’t break suits them well playing in complement to a prolific offense.

The schedule looks pretty light for a potentially elite team in the NFC. The stretch to watch is the final four games against Seattle, at Chicago, Minnesota, and at Detroit. Expect this team in the playoffs come January, and they’ll be pushing for home field advantage all season.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings were one of the surprises of the NFL last season, winning the NFC North with an 11-5 record. They will have to put the gut-wrenching playoff loss behind them and continue to build upon last season (Laces out!). Minnesota is locked and loaded this season playing a tough brand of ground and pound football led by running back Adrian Peterson. The x-factor for this offense lies solely on quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. He will have to make progress in the passing game to keep this offense from being too one-dimensional (They ranked 31^st in passing yards last year). Peterson is the best running back in the game, but is getting up there in age. The Vikings did draft wide receiver Laquon Treadwell to help bolster the receiving core, and showed flashed of being a special player at Ole Miss.

Minnesota sported one of the better defenses in the league last season, and expects much of the same. This unit ranked fifth in points allowed, and turned into one of the best defenses in the league under head coach Mike Zimmer. Linebacker Anthony Barr, defensive end Everson Griffen, and safety Harrison Smith all made the Pro Bowl last season, and are the headliners of a young core this defense is built around. If they can get to the passer more effectively and create more turnovers, this defense has the potential to be a top-five defense overall.

There are a few tough games on the schedule for the Vikings, but luckily there is some distance between those games. The issue is two of the tougher games are paired with games against Green Bay. Weeks 2 and 3 features games against Carolina and Green Bay while weeks 15 and 16 are against Indianapolis followed by the rematch with the Packers. I fully expect the Vikings to be in the mix for a playoff spot again this season.

Detroit Lions

Life without future Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson begins this season in Detroit. All of the pressure rests on quarterback Matthew Stafford to be the motor of this offense. Detroit signed receivers Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin to help fill the void left by Megatron. Golden Tate now becomes the go-to target in this offense, and he showed that he is capable of lead guy. The Lions will have to find some balance to this offense however. The running game was non-existent at times, and need a rebound season from the running backs to get things going on the ground after finishing last in the league in rushing yards. Running back Theo Riddick was a pleasant surprise in the passing game, but he was the lone highlight for this group.

Defensively, the Lions missed the presence of Ndamukong Suh after losing him in free agency. This unit is nothing to write home about, and could be the Achilles’ heel for this team this season. They ranked in the bottom third of the league in most of the key categories last season, and no moves were made to bolster this unit.

The Lions avoid playing the upper-echelon teams in the NFL outside of division rival Green Bay, which is the only reprieve this team may get. There are a lot of question marks about this team. Offensively they may be able to mask some of the deficiencies of the defense but it won’t be enough to make a playoff run. This is a team in turnaround that needs to figure out what they have going forward.

Chicago Bears

Last season was a lost year in Chicago. Injuries and poor play hampered the Bears all year. This season looks a little better but I don’t believe it is enough to put them in contention with the Packers and Vikings at the top of the division. Chicago traded Martellus Bennett to New England, then let running back Matt Forte leave in free agency. The receiving core should be better this season with Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White leading the way after an injury filled season. The only issue is that Jay Cutler still plays quarterback in Chicago. This isn’t to say that Cutler doesn’t have the talent, but he has shown time and again that he is not a guy that can take a team all the way.

Chicago spent the offseason adding to its defense with the money saved by subtracting Bennett and Forte from the salary cap. Resigning cornerback Tracy Porter, signing linebackers Danny Trevathan, Jerrel Freeman, and Sam Acho were among some of the moves made to bolster a defense that struggled last season against the run. The secondary took a major hit last week with star cornerback Kyle Fuller undergoing an arthroscopic knee surgery. Fuller is out indefinitely and will leave a hole in the back end of this defense.

Much like the Detroit Lions, Chicago doesn’t have an impossible schedule. There are some winnable games, but the uncertainty in how this team will perform doesn’t inspire much faith in this team. They went 6-10 last season, I would expect something similar in Chicago this year. Don’t buy into the “team in year two under head coach John Fox” hype that is out there.

 

I will be continuing my NFL previews on Wednesday as I look at the AFC East (finally). Tomorrow I will go over some potential sleepers and busts for fantasy football. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and give the Shooting the Moon page a like on Facebook. Keep the conversation going on in the comments and send me your thoughts.

Welcome back everyone. I hope you all had a terrific weekend but now we have to get back to the grind of the work week. If you’re suffering from a case of the Monday’s, I think I’ve got something to sooth the pain.

It’s the first weekend recap from Shooting the Moon! Every Monday I’ll recap a few of the best stories from the weekend. What a weekend it was by the way. The Summer Olympics in Rio drew to a close, in spectacular fashion (seriously, the Japanese Prime Minister arriving via Super Mario warp pipe was a clever touch to the closing ceremonies). Team USA showed up when it mattered most in men’s basketball to blow out Serbia with a dominant performance. The Ryan Lochte controversy continued to spin its wheels.

However, the biggest story of the weekend came from the UFC. Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz stole the show this weekend with their epic five round clash at UFC 202 on Saturday night. This certainly goes a long way in washing the bad taste left over from a disappointing UFC 200. Both men left it all in the octagon and McGregor avenges his loss to Diaz, presumably setting up the rubber match in a few months. McGregor may have claimed that “the king is back” but he still needs to finish this trilogy with Diaz before he can get back to chasing titles in multiple weight classes.

I have to give all the credit in the world to McGregor for this victory. He chose to move up two weight classes again to prove he could defeat Diaz. If you recall the “build-up” to the first fight was Diaz stepping in on short notice for an injured Rafael dos Anjos, turning a lightweight championship fight (155 lbs) into a welterweight bout (170 lbs). This was the make or break fight for McGregor as he is back on track to becoming the pound-for-pound best fighter in the UFC. A third fight with Diaz does put a rematch with Jose Aldo for the featherweight championship and a lightweight championship opportunity on the backburner. If Saturday night was any indication, I don’t think any of us will mind seeing McGregor-Diaz III.

Quickly getting back to the Olympics before I wrap this article up, I want to delve into Team USA’s victory over Serbia in the men’s basketball gold medal game. I’ll be the first one to tell you that I was a little worried about Team USA coming into this game after looking vulnerable towards the end of the preliminary round and even in the semifinals against Spain. Kevin Durant showed why he is the second-best player in the world behind LeBron James, putting in a dynamic performance. He was all over the court for the Americans wreaking havoc on both ends. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the contribution from DeMarcus Cousins in this game as well. “Boogie” Cousins notched a double-double by halftime and was a force inside for Team USA. It all added up to a golden sendoff for Carmelo Anthony and coach Mike Krzyzewski.

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon all week for plenty of NFL and fantasy football coverage. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

The work week is in the books which means it’s time to sit back, relax, and enjoy the weekend. At Shooting the Moon, the weekend means enjoying everything the sports world has to offer. Every Friday I’ll be highlighting some of the key events for you to watch in the Weekend Viewer Guide. Here are just a few things to keep an eye on.

Tonight (8/19)

Usain Bolt’s final race in the 4x100m Relay – 9:35 PM (NBC)

The Jamaican speedster looks to win his third gold medal at the Rio Olympics. Another gold would give him a historic nine for his career, tying him with Carl Lewis for the most by a track and field athlete. Even more impressive, it would clinch a perfect 9-for-9 for Bolt, who lines up for his final Olympic race.

Preseason Football – Various times (1 game on NFL Network/regional coverage)

The preseason rolls on in the NFL with 3 games on the slate for tonight. The NFL Network will be airing the Dolphins and Cowboys live from Jerry’s World at 8:00 PM. In other action tonight, the Jets and Redskins square off at 7:30 PM in Landover, MD. The nightcap features a contest between the Chargers and Cardinals in San Diego at 9:00 PM. Unfortunately, due to the TV schedule in the regular season if you aren’t in any of the media markets, you will have to wait for these replays on the NFL Network.

Saturday (8/20)

 UFC 202: McGregor v. Diaz 2 – Main Card @ 10:00 PM (PPV)

Originally slated as the main event for UFC 200, Irish bad boy Connor McGregor finally gets his rematch with Nate Diaz on Saturday night. There is no love lost between these two foes. No titles are on the line, just a lot of personal pride between two of the biggest smack talkers in the sport. Think I’m kidding? Just watch this, I’ll wait. (NSFW) Doesn’t get more ridiculous than that for a pre-fight press conference.

The co-main event of the evening features a light heavyweight bout between Anthony Johnson and Glover Teixeira in what could be a virtual number one contender’s bout for Daniel Cormier’s light heavyweight championship. Both men have knockout power, so expect some serious fireworks in this fight.

Toronto Blue Jays v. Cleveland Indians – 7:10 PM (MLB Network by region)

This is a potential playoff preview between the leaders of the AL East and AL Central divisions. Toronto features one of the best lineups in the American League and is in a dead heat with Baltimore for the top spot in the division. Cleveland has been the surprise leader in the AL Central and is trying to fend off a late charge from Detroit. Depending on where you are watching this is one of the two games that will be on MLB Network on Saturday night.

NFL Preseason – Tripleheader starting at 4:00 PM (NFL Network)

 The NFL Network will be airing three preseason games Saturday night featuring:

– New York Giants at Buffalo Bills – 4:00 PM

– Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts – 7:00 PM

– Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams – 10:00 PM

Sunday (8/21)

USA Men’s Basketball Goes for Gold – 2:45 PM (NBC)

Sunday afternoon, Kevin Durant and company aims to win a third straight Olympic gold medal for USA Basketball in Rio. They will face either Serbia or Australia in a rematch from the preliminary round (as I’m currently writing this the semifinal between these teams is being played). Both of the potential opponents for Team USA challenged the gold medal favorites, who have looked surprising vulnerable compared to previous iterations of this team. Team USA will still be the odd-on favorite to bring home the gold medal, but are not nearly the lock that they usually have been in Olympic competition under coach Mike Krzyzewski.

I’ll be back on Monday to recap the major stories from this weekend as well as continuing my NFL season preview. Follow me @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook. Enjoy the weekend everyone!