What a game last night folks. There was truly a playoff feel to New England’s win over Baltimore in possibly the best Monday night game we’ve seen all year. Tom Brady vaulted himself back into the lead of the MVP race while putting the Patriots in sole possession of the AFC’s top seed. Just when you thought the Ravens were going to erase a 20-point deficit and take the lead last night, Brady made Baltimore pay for its biggest mistake of the night. One 79-yard touchdown pass to Chris Hogan took all of the momentum away from Baltimore and left New England with a large enough lead to secure a huge home victory.

It was quite a way to finish one of the most pivotal weeks of the season. That primetime slate I was raving about last week certainly lived up to the billing. We saw top teams go down, a few division races tighten up, two division leads change hands, and both wild card races become wide open. Week 14 leaves a lot in play heading into this week.

Currently there are 26 teams mathematically still in contention for the playoffs. Of those 26 teams, six will need a miracle to get into the playoffs (San Diego, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Carolina, and Arizona). Only the Cowboys have technically clinched a spot in the playoffs, but a few teams should secure playoff bids as soon as this week. As crazy as it may sound, ten wins might not guarantee a playoff berth in either conference. For us, it means that every game from here on out will feel like a playoff game. Buckle in folks, it is going to be one wild ride to January.

We could get into all of the clinching scenarios, but at this point some are too ridiculous to even talk about. By the time I get through them all, I definitely would have lost most of you (I try to keep these posts around 1500 words, those scenarios would easily double that mark). Trust me, things are a bit too crazy to even delve into right now. Looking at the standings, you have a pretty good idea of what is realistic and what are just high hopes.

So for today, I’ll reveal my latest power rankings and watch list to set up the weeks ahead. We can delve into potential clinching scenarios once some of the long shots inevitably clear themselves out of the picture. For now though, here are the lists heading into Week 15.

(1) New England Patriots (11-2) – Last Week: 2

I’m sure this should come as no surprise, but the Patriots have reasserted themselves as the top dog in the NFL. Tom Brady, at 39 years old, is dominating this season and could become the first player in history to win the MVP despite missing four or more games. Quite the accomplishment for a guy who has few milestones left in his sights. We are also seeing this defense rounding into playoff form even if this is a group of so called “role players.” Now with New England in sole possession of the top seed in the AFC, the road to Super Bowl LI becomes clearer for the Patriots. As for this week, New England gets Denver in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game.

(2) Dallas Cowboys (11-2) – Last Week: 1

The Cowboys slip to #2 in my rankings for two reasons. First, is obviously the loss to the Giants on Sunday night, leaving the door open in the NFC East. The second reason is that Dallas hasn’t looked like an unstoppable force in recent weeks. Dak Prescott is going through some rookie struggles, but these growing pains are part of the process. This offensive line may be the best in the NFL, but we have seen in the last two weeks that a top-notch defense can cause some serious issues. Dallas should be okay, but these last two weeks give me cause for concern for a deep playoff run from the Cowboys. No time for licking wounds though as the Cowboys face the red-hot Buccaneers on Sunday night.

(3) Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) – Last Week: 4

It seems like an eternity since we saw the Chiefs hold off the Raiders on Thursday. The 21-13 win for Kansas City gave them first place in the AFC West and more importantly the season sweep over Oakland (the key tiebreaker for divisional races). This defense is looking scary good right now, and is getting healthier with each passing week. Kansas City’s defense is looking like this season version of Denver’s vaunted defense. On the other side of the ball, we witnessed that Tyreek Hill is no fluke for this offense. He is the x-factor every week with his homerun ability. Jeremy Maclin’s return is another welcome sight for the Chiefs. This week is setting up for a slugfest against Tennessee, who just defeated Denver last week.

(4) Oakland Raiders (10-3) – Last Week: 3

A tough loss for Oakland drops them down one spot this week, but the outlook for the Raiders is still looking good for a playoff berth. If anything, the Raiders may actually fare better as a wild-card team since they seem to play better on the road. I do have some concerns about how far this team could go since they would have to go through potentially both New England and Kansas City to reach the Super Bowl, assuming they get through the wild card round. That being said there is still a lot to like here especially with the way Derek Carr has played this season. Oakland will have a chance to right the ship this week with a trip to San Diego to face the Chargers.

(5) New York Giants (9-4) – Last Week: Watch List

Regardless of the outcome of the Seattle game, New York’s win over Dallas was enough for me to put the Giants in the power rankings this week. I could get into my issues with this offense because there are plenty. The reason I think the Giants are potentially one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL is this defense. Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins, Eli Apple, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are proving to be one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Olivier Vernon and the rest of this front-seven looked dominant against the best offensive line in football, causing them fits all night on Sunday. Don’t look now folks, but these Giants are looking eerily similar to those Super Bowl winning teams from 2012 and 2008. As for Week 15, we get a potential playoff preview between the Giants and Lions.

Watch List: Seattle (8-4-1), Detroit (9-4), Pittsburgh (8-5), Atlanta (8-5), Tampa Bay (8-5), Denver (8-5), Green Bay (7-6), Baltimore (7-6), Tennessee (7-6), Miami (8-5)

Alright folks, that is it for me today. Enjoy all of the games tonight, plenty of basketball and hockey to wet the palate. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” and Thursday will be wall-to-wall NFL coverage. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Happy Monday everyone! I hope you all had an enjoyable weekend. We had a relatively quiet weekend in sports but there is still a good amount to talk about today. I’ll be talking about Army-Navy, Lamar Jackson’s Heisman victory, a pair of surprises in the NFC and previewing tonight’s game between Baltimore and New England.

We’ll start with the annual rivalry game between Army and Navy. As you may have heard Army defeated Navy for the first time since 2001 on Saturday. It was interesting to see Army flip the script on Navy to break one of the longest losing streaks in this rivalry’s history. Color analyst Gary Danielson noted during the game that Navy typically acts like a boa constrictor, slowly squeezing its opponent. Army took the role of the defensive aggressor and even fended off a comeback attempt from its longtime rival.

Before I move onto the Heisman trophy presentation, I do want to send my thanks and congratulations to Verne Lundquist. He completed his final season in the booth for CBS and now moves into semi-retirement. His heartfelt sign-off after the Army-Navy game was one of the highlights of the day. Saturdays won’t be the same without Lundquist in the booth calling the action in the SEC. Luckily we will still get to hear him during March Madness and on the 16^th hole of the Masters.

Now let’s get to the Heisman trophy presentation where Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson took home the most coveted award in collegiate sports. Jackson took the country by storm this season, racking up 51 touchdowns on the year along with 3,300+ passing yards and 1,500+ rushing yards. He is the first Heisman winner in the history of the Louisville program.

It turns out it was really a two-horse race for the trophy this season, despite five finalists being invited to the ceremony. Jackson won by a wide margin over Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, who finished as the runner-up this season. The margin between Watson and third-place finisher Baker Mayfield was actually one of the largest in the history of the award.

I am very excited to see how Jackson will follow up this incredible season, as he will have the rare opportunity to attempt to defend his Heisman trophy next year. There will be a ton of competition and heightened expectations for the sophomore quarterback in 2017. Jackson chasing Archie Griffin will already be one of the top storylines of the 2017 seasons.

Keeping with the theme of upsets on the field, the NFL had two big ones in store for us yesterday. Green Bay throttled Seattle yesterday 38-10, making a huge statement to the rest of the NFC. The Packers look far from dead in the NFC North and the wild card race. If you are into pointing fingers, this game largely falls on the five interceptions thrown by Russell Wilson. Granted some of them were crazy tipped ball picks, but any time you have five interceptions against Aaron Rodgers, its just not going to be your day.

Speaking of Rodgers, he was magnificent against a short-handed Legion of Boom. He picked apart the Seahawks from the get-go, and the extra possessions were really just icing on the cake. Now the only negative that you could put on the Packers right now is that Rodgers was rested in the fourth quarter and was limping for much of the game. His health is the key for the late season surge Green Bay will need to finish in order to get into the playoffs. This is two weeks in a row where Rodgers has looked gimpy during the game, so we’ll have to keep a keen eye on the star quarterback’s injury status going forward.

Sunday night football gave us a defensive showdown in the NFC East between the Giants and Cowboys. New York completed the season-sweep of Dallas, winning 10-7 in primetime. It wasn’t pretty but the Giants got the job done when they had to against the top team in the NFL.

Dak Prescott played the worst game of his rookie season, going 17-37 passing (45.5%) for 165 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. The Giants sold out to stop the run, but the secondary stepped up in man-to-man coverage all night long. Janoris Jenkins had the performance of the night for the G-men, shutting down Dez Bryant, nabbing an interception, and forcing a fumble on Bryant to win the game.

Dallas certainly has a few issues to iron out, but they are still the class of the NFC right now. Any talk of Tony Romo coming in at quarterback is ridiculous. The Cowboys would be doing a disservice to Prescott by pulling the plug on him now. The Cowboys are still in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the NFC and with a rookie quarterback you have to expect a couple bumps in the road. 11-2 is still a great place to be in mid-December.

New York and this defense are looking like one of the more dangerous team’s in the NFC and come playoff time I would not want to see them on the schedule. They are shutting down the opposing offenses, and even though New York’s offense isn’t very consistent, all it takes is one slant route by Odell Beckham Jr. to make the difference. At 9-4, the Giants need some help to take the NFC East, but are in a great spot holding down the fifth seed in the conference. This is a team that could easily win in the wild card round and make a strong run in the playoffs.

It’s time to turn our attention to tonight’s game between the Ravens and Patriots. Hopefully we’ll get a much better game than last week and if recent history tells us anything, we should be in for a great one. This is a potential playoff preview between the leaders in the AFC East and AFC North.

For New England, this is a huge game for them as they will be able to take control of the AFC’s top seed with a win. Baltimore needs a win to keep a slim lead over the Steelers in the AFC North. A loss would drop Baltimore out of the playoffs for now.

Baltimore sports the top-rushing defense in the NFL, and this front-seven will be called upon to cause havoc against Tom Brady. They will have their hands full trying to stop the assortment of weapons that New England has even without Rob Gronkowski. The Ravens are a hard-nosed football team and are one of the few teams that can cause fits for the Patriots in Foxborough. Two of the last five games between these teams in New England have been playoff wins for Baltimore. There has been a lot of talk of a lack of fear from the Ravens going up against the best team in the AFC and that playoff success has a lot to do with the confidence of Baltimore coming into this game.

There is a “heavyweight fight” feel to this game, and rightfully so with the marquee matchup of the Ravens defense and Patriots offense. I do think that the key to this game is Joe Flacco against the New England defense. Flacco will need to be able to attack downfield and put up points against New England. This isn’t one of the better defenses that Bill Belichick has put together in recent years (mostly due to trading away Jamie Collins midseason), so Flacco will have to take advantage.

A name to watch for the Ravens is rookie running back Kenneth Dixon. He returned from an MCL sprain a few weeks ago and has been carving out a nice role for himself as the receiving back in this offense. Dixon is a nice complement to Terrance West in the backfield, and has been productive in recent weeks.

As far as tonight’s game goes, I think that the Patriots at home are a pretty safe bet to win this game at home. However, I’m picking against the spread, which doesn’t make New England the surefire pick here. Of the last five games in Foxborough, three games have been decided by three points (all won by New England) and the other two were outright wins by Baltimore by double digits. I’m going with Baltimore (+6.5) to finish another big week for the Shooting the Moon picks (currently 10-5 this week).

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “No Huddle” to recap the rest Week 14 and reveal the latest power rankings. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

It’s all about primetime this week in the NFL. Playoff implications are all over the place in Week 14 and it all gets started tonight. Oakland-Kansas City is potentially the best Thursday night game we’ll get all season. Tonight is quite a way to kick off the final push towards the postseason. This AFC West matchup is going to be the tone setter for the rest of what could potentially be one of the best weeks of the season.

Since this is the matchup column for “No Huddle” I figure there is no better place to start. First place in the AFC West is on the line tonight between these division rivals, and that is just the price of admission. Oakland puts its undefeated road record up against Kansas City, which is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

Both teams have found increasingly different and difficult ways to win all year which should make this one that much more compelling. Kansas City dominated the last matchup between these two teams, but don’t expect to see the same outcome here tonight.

MVP candidate Derek Carr has willed the Raiders to multiple wins this season behind one of the best offensive lines in football. The battle in the trenches is the key to this game. Oakland has been stout up front all year, but this Kansas City defensive line is potentially its kryptonite. Tamba Hali, Dee Ford, Dontari Poe, and Justin Houston present quite a problem for Oakland.

To counter the ferocious Kansas City front-seven, I would expect Oakland to pull from its gameplan from the Denver game. The Raiders brought in a sixth lineman to aid in protection. It gave Carr more time to throw, and really paid dividends in the running game.

The Chiefs defense isn’t impenetrable, ranking 28^th in yards allowed, but they are opportunistic. Kansas City bends but usually doesn’t break. This is a team that relies on winning the turnover battle and playing with the lead. Eric Berry and Marcus Peters will have their hands full trying to stop Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. The matchup of the Oakland offense and Kansas City defense is chock-full of intrigue for this game.

Khalil Mack will lead the way for the Oakland defense in trying to stop what coach Jack Del Rio called a “gimmicky offense.” The Chiefs aren’t too flashy on offense but they do have some explosive weapons at their disposal. I don’t see a great way for the Raiders to keep tight end Travis Kelce in check. He will be the bread and butter in the passing game tonight.

Tyreek Hill is another name to watch on this KC offense. Hill is turning into the Swiss Army knife for the Chiefs and is being compared to a rich man’s Percy Harvin. He is seemingly one play away from breaking off a big run, catch, or return for a touchdown.

On the injury front, Jeremy Maclin will be back in the lineup tonight. He has had a rough year dealing with injuries, and I expect that coach Andy Reid would ease him into action tonight.

As far as my pick for the game goes, I think this is a coin-flip game that could come down to the final possession. The extra half-point the Chiefs are favored by almost forces my hand in this one. I’ll take Oakland (+3.5) tonight, in what should be a fantastic game.

We now turn our attention to Sunday night, where the NFC East title will be in play as the Cowboys face the Giants. These NFC East rivals played a sloppy game that saw New York edge Dallas 21-20 in Week 1. The Cowboys have reeled off eleven straight wins since and find themselves on the precipice of clinching the NFC East after securing a playoff bid last week.

It’s all about stopping the Dallas offense for the Giants in this game. Minnesota showed off a gameplan that can work which relies on dominating up front and getting pressure on Dak Prescott. New York spent a lot of money in the offseason bolstering this defensive front and they will have the spotlight on them in this game.

Dallas succeeds in controlling the time of possession battle using its offense to protect a beatable defense. The Giants might not be able to flip the script with the running game, but clearly they want to use a West Coast-passing attack to control the clock.

Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant will rightly garner their share of the headlines in this one. Whichever defense can limit the effect of the opposing star will have a leg up in this game. Both players can change the game in one play, so we’ll see how these defenses plan to stop them.

Five paragraphs in and I’m just getting to Ezekiel Elliott, but that’s not because I don’t think he’s important. Elliott is the constant for Dallas’s offense since his 56-yard performance against New York in Week 1; he has eclipsed 80 yards in every game and has been a lot more effective. That first game was the outlier for Elliott’s season, and the way he is running now will be tough to stop, let alone slow down.

All signs point to Dallas having the edge here, but as we have learned in the NFC East over the years, it is an “any given Sunday” division.

The final primetime game is an interesting matchup between Baltimore and New England on Monday night. This is another game where all signs point to one team having the advantage, but this is a tricky matchup for the favorite in New England.

Baltimore is a tough defense to beat and without Rob Gronkowski predicting what this offense will do is a little easier. The Patriots running game has been great all year, but will face the top rushing defense in the NFL on Monday night. Usually it’s the Patriots that take away the fastball, but this Ravens defense is equipped to make life difficult for Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots offense.

The outcome of this game will rest on the shoulders of Joe Flacco. This Ravens offense has been up and down all season, and most of the “down” performances have been on the road. That being said, Baltimore is one of the few teams in the NFL that have had success in Foxborough (they’ve won twice in the playoffs at Gillette Stadium). Despite the 2-3 record for Baltimore, all of the games between these two in New England have been one possession games since 2010. If the Ravens want to keep the slim lead they have over Pittsburgh, Monday night is a must win game.

This is a playoff-caliber matchup, and hopefully will live up to the billing since we’ve been treated to a ton of bad games on Monday nights.

Playoff implications aren’t exclusive to the primetime games this week either. Seattle-Green Bay, Houston-Indianapolis, Denver-Tennessee, New Orleans-Tampa Bay, Washington-Philadelphia, Arizona-Miami, and Pittsburgh-Buffalo all will help shape the playoff picture.

Now let’s move on to my picks against the spread for this week. To put it bluntly, I am on fire right now following a 10-5 Week 13. I’ve been well above .500 since Week 10 and momentum is on my side. Here are my picks for this week (Winners in Bold).

Last Week: 10-5                   2016 Season: 105-86-1

1:00 PM

Washington (-2) vs. Philadelphia

Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Buffalo

Denver (+1) vs. Tennessee

Arizona vs. Miami (+1.5)

San Diego (+1.5) vs. Carolina

Cincinnati (-5.5) vs. Cleveland

Chicago vs. Detroit (-7.5)

Houston (+6.5) vs. Indianapolis

Minnesota (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville

 

4:05/4:25 PM

NY Jets (+2.5) vs. San Francisco

New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay (-2.5)

Atlanta (-6) vs. Los Angeles

Seattle (-3) vs. Green Bay

 

Sunday Night Football

Dallas vs. NY Giants (+3.5)

 

That’s it for me, enjoy all of the action tonight. I’ll be back tomorrow with the return of “Heat Check” to size up the NBA through the quarter-pole of the regular season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

The fantasy playoffs are finally here folks. We’ve been plotting and planning since August for this time of the year, and now its finally time to bring our best for a chance at glory. Hopefully most of you have made it this far, if not there is still pride to play for, or in some leagues, not to finish in last and whatever unfortunate punishment comes along with that.

This week’s “Reality of Fantasy” is going to follow the mold of last week’s where we’ll look at the best games to target for the week. There are a few great games for fantasy football this week so I hope you have all planned accordingly. No more bye weeks, (hopefully) no more streaming, just your best lineup against your opponent’s. Let the best team advance to the semi-finals.

Before I get to the games, there is a bit of information that I need to pass along. Prior to the year when I wrote up “Fantasy 101” my first rule was not to completely trust rankings and projections. Just like most years, that turned out to be a good rule of thumb to abide by.

The reason I bring this up is because ESPN’s fantasy sports team released its list of the most common players on teams that made the playoffs. They’ll release a similar list once the fantasy championships are over but this is an interesting list to see just how right or wrong that we were four months ago.

2016 was supposed to be the receiver revolution in fantasy football. Looking at the PPR flex rankings (RB/WR/TE) heading into this week, six of the top ten players in fantasy are currently running backs. Funny how these things work out, of the 21 most common players on playoff rosters, ten of those players are also running backs.

So that receiver revolution was a bit of a reach for this season, clearly the running backs are still the vital position among non-QBs. That doesn’t mean receivers are replaceable by any means, but we’ve seen more running backs getting 20+ touches per game than expected (top-end receivers only see about 10-15 targets by comparison).

It’s just been that kind of year. Just when we think we have our thumb on the pulse of how things will play out, we get a swift, humbling reminder that anything is possible. Let that serve as something to always have in the back of our minds as we head into Week 14.

Which brings us back to the opening week of the fantasy playoffs, which is why we’re all hear. Personally I think that this is going to be a much better week for the NFL than in fantasy. There are still some great matchups out there for us to exploit though.

We’ll start with an NFC South matchup between New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Last week I, like many fantasy experts, thought the Saints were a sure-fire option against Detroit. Well, we got burned by that one, with the Lions playing ball-control offense all game. Personally, with the way Drew Brees spreads the ball around it’s tough to predict which Saint will be “the guy” on a given week. Brandin Cooks getting zero targets two weeks ago is solid proof of that case.

Now, you are probably asking why I’m leading with this game since I’m being so negative about the Saints. It’s because of the Buccaneers in divisional games this season. Ignoring the sloppy 17-10 Monday night game against the Panthers, Tampa Bay tends to get into shootouts against division opponents.

I think that the Jameis Winston-Mike Evans connection is potentially a championship winning combination. I’ve been saying it all season, but unfortunately for me, I narrowly missed the playoff in the one league I have them both on my roster…awesome. Regardless of my personal woes the Saints are a bottom-third defense, which is great news for Tampa Bay’s fantasy prospects.

Despite the lackluster performance last week, I expect that New Orleans will have a bounce back week against a divisional foe, especially with its playoff life on the line. Drew Brees went 60+ games throwing for a touchdown pass before last week, and he should get another such streak started against Tampa Bay. I may like this game more for the Buccaneers, but I think this should be a high-scoring game between these two NFC South rivals.

Another NFC South team ends up on the wrong end of this column, as the Panthers welcome the San Diego Chargers to town. The Chargers get a shot at this banged-up Carolina defense, and this one could get ugly. There are all sorts of issues on and off the field for the defending NFC champs which will leave them ripe for the picking once again this week.

The hot and cold Seattle offense just annihilated this defense, and San Diego should have similar success in this game. The Chargers rely heavily on the passing attack, and they face a defense that ranks 29^th in fantasy for points allowed to opposing wide receivers.

That is great news for Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman, who have both been on fire in recent weeks. Even Travis Benjamin is back from his MCL sprain and could be a factor in this one. If I had to rank the Charger receivers, I would put Williams squarely ahead of Inman and Benjamin.

For Carolina, I’m not too hot on their fantasy prospects against a quietly tough San Diego defense. However, I do think that Greg Olsen is a solid play this week with the Chargers ranking 19^th in fantasy against tight ends. There isn’t much trust with the Panthers but considering they were just embarrassed on national TV there is a chance they come back in this one with something to prove.

Those are the two best matchups, but there are a couple others worth considering. Detroit against Chicago is potentially a sneaky play this week, as the Lions have been effective on offense all season. Plus, the game is in Detroit so there won’t be any weather to worry about in this matchup. I would be cautious though, since the Bears are not the easiest matchup out there. Home field advantage is the why I like this game for the Lions.

Pittsburgh is catching fire at the right time as they head into Buffalo to face the Bills. The Killer B’s (Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell) should always have a place in your lineup, but the emergence of tight end Ladarius Green could be a difference maker for this offense. Green is the most athletic tight end that this offense has ever had and now that he is healthy, he has a fantastic ceiling (23 points last week in PPR). Green is a late season addition that could catapult you into the next round.

Seattle and Green Bay may not have made the “best of” portion of this column, but I think there are potential fireworks between these two teams. I’m hesitant to put much stock into this game due to weather concerns in Green Bay. Last week there was a snowstorm and what do you know, there is more snow in the forecast. A clear weather forecast is what we’ll need to see to be confident about this one.

Keep an eye on Washington going against Philadelphia this week. The Eagles look like they are falling apart defensively and a matchup against a pretty good Redskins offense is the last thing they could want to see. NFC East matchups are a crapshoot, so definitely be careful here. The matchup is pretty good though so definitely keep this one on your radar.

Good luck to you all this week in the fantasy playoffs. I’m working on “No Huddle” for later today so stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for more NFL coverage. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

With four games left in the regular season, the playoffs are finally in sight. Right now only the Cowboys have clinched a berth in the postseason, leaving eleven spots up for grabs. Some spots are a little more in flux than others, but it should be one hell of a ride to the postseason. No more bye weeks left in the season so there will be no rest for the weary. This is where we finally separate the contenders from the pretenders.

I’ll be going over the most important games tomorrow, but looking at the schedule for the stakes will be massive. Seemingly all of the playoff contenders are facing off this week and this will set the tone for a wild ride to January. It’s going to be a great week for football folks, so settle in and enjoy.

Today’s “No Huddle” will set the stage for these final few weeks of the regular season. I’ve got my latest power rankings and watch list to reveal heading into a monumental Week 14. Let’s not waste too much time and get right to it.

(1) Dallas Cowboys (11-1) – Last Week: 1

Dallas survived a scare against the Vikings last Thursday and thanks to Washington’s loss on Sunday, the Cowboys clinched playoff berth. This week, Dallas can wrap up the NFC East and make more headway to securing home-field advantage. We’ll know for sure if both will be on the line Sunday night when the Cowboys travel to New York to face the Giants at MetLife Stadium. The first matchup was a bit sloppy but an exciting 21-20 win for the Giants in Week 1.

(2) New England Patriots (10-2) – Last Week: 2

 The biggest loss the Pats have had all year didn’t come on the field, but came in the form of injury. Rob Gronkowski is likely out for the rest of the season after undergoing back surgery for the third time in his career. That is a massive blow to New England’s hopes at a Lombardi Trophy, but this is partly the reason they acquired Martellus Bennett. As long as Tom Brady is at the helm though, New England is still dangerous. You don’t become the career leader in wins if you can’t overcome adversity. This week brings an interesting test on Monday night against a tough Baltimore team. The Ravens are one of the few teams to have success in Foxboro the past few years so this will be a great way to finish the week.

(3) Oakland Raiders (10-2) – Last Week: 3

Who would have thought Oakland would discover another way to win a game. Buffalo had the Raiders dead to rights on Sunday before Oakland flipped the switch and absolutely dominated the Bills. 29 unanswered points later and the Raiders cruised in the second half to its tenth win of the season. Derek Carr didn’t seem to have any lingering issues from dislocating his pinky against the Panthers in Week 12. The top spot in the AFC West and a measure of revenge will be on the line this week as Oakland travels to Kansas City for an epic Thursday night clash. The Chiefs dominated the first matchup between these two teams so the Raiders will have to be on their “A” game.

(4) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) – Last Week: 4

Eric Berry singlehandedly saved the Chiefs on Sunday with a pick-six and pick-two to give Kansas City a 27-26 win against Atlanta. It keeps the Chiefs in striking distance of Oakland and keeps them in play for a first round bye should they overtake the lead in the AFC West. So much is on the line Thursday night, with a season sweep of Oakland being the top priority for winning the division. Justin Houston has been playing like a man on fire since returning two weeks ago and he gives this defense another star playmaker to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Houston has four sacks and 14 total tackles in his first two games back from injury.

(5) Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) – Last Week: 5

A dominant 40-7 win over the Panthers is certainly one way to get the bad taste of the Tampa Bay loss out the Seahawks’ mouths. Unfortunately, it was a costly win for Seattle, losing four-time First-team All-Pro safety Earl Thomas for the rest of the year with a broken leg. No one in the league covers the middle of the field like Thomas and will be a crack in the armor of the Legion of Boom the rest of the year. We know about the consistency issues with this offense, so an injury to a key player on this defense could potentially be devastating come playoff time. This week will be a huge test for the short-handed Legion of Boom with a trip to Lambeau Field to face the Packers.

Watch List: Denver (8-4), Detroit (8-4), Pittsburgh (7-5), Baltimore (7-5), Tampa Bay (7-5), Atlanta (7-5), Green Bay (6-6)

 That’s it for me today. I’ll be pulling double-duty tomorrow with this week’s “Reality of Fantasy” and another edition of “No Huddle” breaking down the most important games of the week. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Happy Monday everyone! As always it’s a “Weekend Recap” to get the week started. Quite a weekend it was with the conference title games and another week in the NFL to get us through. College football was the big story this weekend as the playoff teams and the rest of the bowl games were announced yesterday. Before I give my thoughts on the CFP, lets chat a little bit about the conference title games.

Between the ACC and Big Ten championship games on Saturday night, we got two incredible showings when the stakes couldn’t be any higher. Clemson staved off a furious comeback attempt from Virginia Tech to claim the ACC championship and a place in the College Football Playoff. The Tigers jumped out to a big lead early on but finally put the Hokies away by forcing a turnover in the redzone to end the game.

Penn State was able to complete a furious comeback of its own against a tough Wisconsin team for the Big Ten championship. Nittany Lions quarterback Trace McSorley shined in the second half leading Penn State to victory. Trailing by 14 entering the second half, things could not have looked grimmer for Penn State facing a Wisconsin defense that had dominated early in the game.

Everything changed on the opening drive of the second half for Penn State. McSorley uncorked a deep strike to Saeed Blacknall for a 70-yard touchdown that flipped the momentum to the Nittany Lions. From there, it was all Penn State, outscoring Wisconsin 24-3 in the second half.

You want to see difference between the agony of defeat and the jubilation of victory? Being in a Philadelphia bar smack dab between a raucous Penn State crowd and a despondent Virginia Tech crowd reminded me of that how close those two feelings are. The game-sealing interception thrown by Virginia Tech and the final Penn State defensive stand happened within moments. You could cut the tension in the room with a knife just before it all went down.

Unfortunately for Penn State, the Big Ten championship was all that the Nittany Lions would get that night. The CFP committee left the Big Ten champs out of the third annual playoff in Sunday’s announcement of the national semi-finals much to the chagrin of the Nittany Lion faithful.

I talked last week about how I thought that while Penn State had the best chance to slip into the playoff, they were going to need help. The upsets they needed failed to happen and despite a worthy résumé it was not meant to be this year.

This brings us to yesterday’s announcement of the four teams that did make the CFP for this season. #1 Alabama will play #4 Washington in the Peach Bowl and #2 Clemson will face #3 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. I do believe that the committee got it right, but I am part of the group that questions the method in which it got to this decision.

Those four teams are deserving of a shot at the national championship but I don’t necessarily with the notion that the final spot was between Washington and Penn State. Ohio State only drops one spot? Come on. Three years ago, the committee dropped TCU from #3 to #6 for splitting the Big 12 title. Ohio State didn’t win its division or its conference championship this season.

There definitely seems to be a “best for business” mentality with these matchups, holding off a potential Alabama-Ohio State game until the national championship game. I’m not one for conspiracy theories but if the tin foil cap fits…well you see where I’m going with this one.

Regardless, Penn State got the rough draw this season. With only four spots in the playoff, there will always be teams feeling like they got slighted. It’s only the third year of the playoff so there will still be some fine-tuning to this process. You live and you learn as the saying goes.

Here is a silver lining for the Penn State fans that are feeling a bit raw about yesterday. At least your team had a chance to get into the playoff.#15 Western Michigan is 13-0 and didn’t even get considered for one of the four spots all year long. So it could have been a lot worse for the Nittany Lions.

Before I go too far down the rabbit hole with the college football talk, lets move on to the NFL. The game of the day yesterday easily had to be the thriller between Kansas City and Atlanta. Chiefs safety Eric Berry left a firm impression on this matchup of potential playoff teams. He had a pick-six to give Kansas City a lead at the end of the first half. Berry followed that up by running back an interception on a two-point conversion for two points to win the game for the Chiefs.

The win keeps Kansas City in the driver’s seat in the AFC wild card race and dropped Atlanta to a tie in the NFC South with Tampa Bay, who won a tough road game against San Diego. Speaking of the Buccaneers, I think it’s time to start taking this team seriously. They are now on a four-game winning streak and look like they are getting hot at the right time beating some of the best teams in the league (Kansas City and Seattle). This defense forced two second-half interceptions, returning one for a touchdown, and is looking much improved since getting demolished by Atlanta a few weeks ago.

We also might want to start treating Detroit with some respect too. The Lions might easily be a couple breaks from being 4-8, but they are sitting pretty at 8-4 with four games left to play. Matthew Stafford is playing his way into fringe of the MVP debate while the defense put in another impressive performance holding Drew Brees without a passing touchdown in the Superdome (which hadn’t been done in over 60 games for the Saints QB). Detroit has an effective offense despite the lack of a running game, which is a credit to Stafford and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter.

On the AFC side of things, the surprise of the day had to be Baltimore’s drubbing of Miami. The Ravens and quarterback Joe Flacco turned in their best performance of the season and exposed the Dolphins in the process. Baltimore picked up a huge win for tiebreaking purposes (remember Miami crushed Pittsburgh earlier this year). The battle for the AFC North is going to be a great race to watch coming down the stretch especially with Baltimore and Pittsburgh playing so well lately.

I’ll save the rest of my reactions from Week 13 for tomorrow’s “No Huddle,” so let’s turn our attention to tonight’s game between Indianapolis and the New York Jets. The final game of Week 13 isn’t exactly a show-stealer but with the Colts in the thick of the AFC South race, there is a bit of playoff significance.

The return of Andrew Luck is the big storyline here. He’s clearly the most important player on this Colts team and his return is a much-needed addition for this game. The Colts will have to make sure that Luck stays in the lineup though because the strength of the Jets is the defensive front. Luck has been sacked the most out of any quarterback in the NFL this season.

We’ll see how this offensive line holds up against the Jets defense, because if they are able to keep Luck upright he will be able to attack downfield against a secondary that has been lackluster all season. T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are the receivers to watch tonight, they will have ample opportunities against the Jets corners.

For the Jets, it looks like the Bryce Petty experiment is officially over as Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starting quarterback once again tonight. That is a big boost for this struggling offense that should be able to have some success against a weak Colts defense. Brandon Marshall will likely draw Vontae Davis in coverage for much of tonight’s game so look for Quincy Enunwa to see a decent amount of targets. I think Marshall will still have a big game despite having to deal with Davis.

As far as my pick for the game goes, I think the Colts have the edge in this one. A healthy Andrew Luck gives them a big boost tonight against the Jets and he should be primed for a big night. I’ll take Indianapolis (EVEN) against the spread to close out another great week for the Shooting the Moon picks. I’m 9-5 in the NFL going into tonight and went 4-1 in college football on Saturday. Not too shabby if I must say.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “No Huddle” to recap Week 13 and update my power rankings. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Well folks it all starts tonight. We are less than 48 hours away from the reveal of the four teams that will be in this season’s College Football Playoff. Some teams are only one victory away, while others are hoping for an upset or two to clear a path to a playoff spot. Conference titles and those coveted playoff berths will be on the line this weekend, and today I’ll be looking at the Power Five conference championship games. Some will undoubtedly mean more than others with three games having a direct impact on college football’s Selection Sunday so let’s jump right into those games.

Pac-12 Championship – #8 Colorado vs. #4 Washington, Friday, 9:00 PM (FOX)

This game carries a ton of intrigue especially given the Huskies loss to USC three weeks ago. Washington has been one of the surprises of the season going from a dark horse playoff contender to being potentially one win away from a playoff bid. Colorado has seemingly come out of nowhere to bring themselves into the top-ten and a shot at the Pac-12 title.

Both teams play phenomenal defense, each average less than 20 points allowed per game. So the story here will be which offense can gain the upper hand on the opposing defense. The answer most experts are willing to offer is not a surprising one. Washington is the overwhelming favorite in this game despite facing a top-ten opponent.

The Huskies have been near impossible to stop on offense all season due in large part to the play of sophomore quarterback Jake Browning. He has been incredible this season throwing for over 3,000 yards, 40 touchdowns, and seven interceptions while completing 65 percent of his passes. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be a Heisman finalist this season, but he will be one of the favorites for the award next season for sure.

Game Pick: Washington     ATS Pick: Washington (-8.5)

 

ACC Championship – #23 Virginia Tech vs. #3 Clemson, Saturday, 8:00 PM (ABC)

Clemson has been a near lock to be in contention for the playoff all year while Virginia Tech survived the grinder in the ACC Coastal division to make it here. Now if you asked me which of the conference title games would produce an upset, I might lean towards this game.

The Tigers is the heavy favorite in this game, but they have flirted with disaster all season. This is not the same team that rolled through the ACC a year ago despite having Heisman candidate Deshaun Watson back in the fold this year. Consistency has been an issue all year for Clemson even with all of the talent on this team.

So the question is, will the upset happen? Probably not, Clemson is the better team in this game and if there is one thing that has been a constant for the Tigers is that they get up for the big games. They certainly cannot afford to play down to the competition. Watson will have to be at his best in this game. I also don’t see how the Hokies can stop receiver Mike Williams, who is playing his way to being a first-round pick in the NFL Draft in a few months should he chose to leave school.

The experts are expecting a shootout, which bodes well for the Tigers, who have a ton of firepower on this offense.

Game Pick: Clemson           ATS Pick: Virginia Tech (+10)

 

Big Ten Championship – #6 Wisconsin vs. #7 Penn State, Saturday, 8:00 PM (FOX)

This is the game that has all of the national attention this weekend. The winner could play spoiler to another conference champion’s playoff hopes. Penn State is the darling of all the experts right now following its shocking upset of Ohio State back in October. They are arguably the hottest team in the country right now and probably have the best chance of these two teams of jumping into the playoffs with a win.

The key matchup of this game is the red-hot offense of Penn State going against the imposing Wisconsin defense. The Badgers allow an impressive 13.7 points per game this season while the Nittany Lions are putting up 36.6 points per game on offense (over 40 points per game in its last five games). It should be a compelling matchup of strengths in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Penn State boasts one of the nation’s best running backs in sophomore Saquon Barkley. He is in the midst of an impressive season, rushing for 1,219 yards and a gaudy 15 touchdowns in 2016. He will be the focal point of the Wisconsin defense in this game, and these Badgers have proved tough to score points against. The Badgers have only allowed seven rushing touchdowns all season.

An interesting note is the status of Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who sustained a head injury last week against Minnesota. He remains questionable for Saturday, which would leave Bart Houston at the helm of this offense. That may not be a big issue since Wisconsin has used both QBs during the last six games, although Hornibrook has been the better of the two.

Game Pick: Penn State            ATS Pick: Penn State (+3)

 

#10 Oklahoma State @ #9 Oklahoma – Saturday, 12:30 PM (FOX)

The latest edition of the rivalry known as Bedlam will determine the champion of the Big 12 conference. Unfortunately for both teams, that is likely all it will determine considering the committee dropped Oklahoma down to #9 in the latest rankings. It might deflate the excitement factor for the game, but these teams will still put on one hell of a show in Norman. Both teams have extremely potent offenses and don’t exactly play what we call “defense.”

With each team capable of putting up 40 points there will be a lot of focus on the offenses. The player to watch here is Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield. Before the season he was one of the favorites for the Heisman trophy, and while he won’t make it to New York City this season, he has had a great year leading the Oklahoma offense. He can throw the ball around the field with ease, but his most dangerous attribute is his playmaking ability outside the pocket. Mayfield will be a problem for the Cowboys all day long.

Game Pick: Oklahoma   ATS Pick: Oklahoma State (+11.5)   Bonus: Over (77)

 

SEC Championship – #15 Florida vs. #1 Alabama, Saturday, 4:00 PM (CBS)

An undefeated regular season and conference title are on the line here for Alabama. It is a forgone conclusion that the current #1 Tide are a lock for the playoffs, but there is enough here for them to not treat this as a throwaway game (it’s weird I’m even typing that sentence). Florida is a tough team, but they are no match for this Alabama team, who has been head and shoulders above the competition this season.

The Tide has the best defense in the country and an explosive offense; both have been nightmares for opposing teams all year. Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has been impressive at the helm this year, leads the way for Alabama. Hurts is not your typical Alabama quarterback either. He is a dual-threat that makes this offense incredibly difficult to gameplan against for opposing defensive coordinators. This freshman phenom has thrown for 2,454 yards and 21 touchdowns while adding 840 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground.

Look for Alabama to make a resounding statement in this game to the rest of the playoff teams. The Tide should roll once again in this game.

Game Pick: Alabama           ATS Pick: Alabama (-24.5)

Have a great weekend everyone! I’ll be back on Monday with my reactions to another huge weekend in sports. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

December 1^st marks the start of the most important month of the season for many NFL teams. The final month of the year either brings hope for January or brings a cold winter with an early start to the offseason. Heroes and goats are made during these crucial games on the schedule. We enter Week 13 with plenty of teams in the mix for division crowns or wild card spots. Which teams will rise up to clinch one of the coveted playoff spots and who will fade away under the pressure of the moment?

Today’s “No Huddle” will be looking at the best games of the week, previewing Thursday Night Football, and I’ll be finishing up as always with my picks against the spread. The theme for this week is taking care of business. There are several matchups that will help shape the playoff picture, so the team’s that get things done this week can set themselves up for a possible playoff run.

I talked about Detroit-New Orleans, Tampa Bay-San Diego, and Buffalo-Oakland for “Reality of Fantasy” but all three have some sort of playoff implications involved. Those aren’t the most important games of the week, which is why I saved those games for this column.

Possibly the most important game for shaping the playoff picture is the matchup between Miami and Baltimore. Miami needs this game to hold its position in the AFC wild card race while Baltimore is in a dead-heat with Pittsburgh for the AFC North crown. These conference matchups become all the more vital for tiebreakers at the end of the year. Picking up an AFC win would be huge for the Dolphins, but I argue that Baltimore will need this game more. Since Miami already defeated Pittsburgh, a Ravens victory over the Dolphins could be a key component to Baltimore taking the AFC North with a win over a common opponent.

In terms of the actual game, this has the potential to be a hard-fought slugfest. Miami’s red-hot run these past six games has been powered by the resurgent running game led by Jay Ajayi. This will be quite the test for the Fins going toe-to-toe with the best run defense in the NFL. Baltimore is tough to run against at home this season, only allowing 55 yards per game on the ground. The Dolphins are not nearly as effective running the ball on the road, averaging 80 yards per game compared to a gaudy 146 yards per game at home.

This will leave Ryan Tannehill to elevate the Miami passing game, which only ranks 28^th in the NFL. He might be short a receiver in this game with DeVante Parker leaving last week’s game with a back injury. Parker was the Dolphins first-round pick in 2015 and had been starting to emerge as a deep-threat in this offense. Also nursing a back injury is Jarvis Landry, who leads the Dolphins in receptions this season and would be a key component in beating this stout Baltimore defense.

Baltimore’s offense will need to step up in what feels like a must-win game for the Ravens. Consistency is the key for the Ravens when the have the football. This offense tends to rely on big plays to score and struggle to put together long drives. A healthy Steve Smith Sr. will certainly help this offense, like he did last week against Dallas. Smith had eight catches for 99 yards and a touchdown. He is the closest thing to a reliable weapon in this offense. Quarterback Joe Flacco will need to be sharp on Sunday and take care of the football.

Another important game for the playoff race is an inter-conference matchup between the Steelers and the Giants. Pittsburgh has struggled against the NFC East this season losing two of three games so far this season. That is a key point here for the Giants who will need this game to keep Dallas in sight in the division while putting some distance between themselves and Washington.

The marquee matchup here is the wide receiver matchup between Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. Both of these players have the ability to change a game in one play and should provide plenty of fireworks on the field. They also might provide some interesting antics on the sidelines as well.

Pittsburgh has struggled to find a rhythm this year, but recent performances point to the Steelers finally looking like the offensive force we all expected to see this season. Thanksgiving was a feast for this offense, especially the Killer B’s (Big Ben, Bell, and Brown). With those three healthy, Pittsburgh is finding the form of a contender in the AFC.

The Giants come into this game on a six-game winning streak but this will be a true test for a team that has feasted on inferior competition. I’m looking to see if the Giants can finally tap into the full potential of this offense. The home/road splits of the passing game are scary though. At home the Giants average 300 passing yards per game while they only average 200 yards per game on the road.

On the defensive side of the ball, I’m keeping an eye on Giants safety Landon Collins and you should too. He’s the biggest defensive playmaker on either team in this game. The second-year safety out of Alabama is in the midst of a huge breakout season, and was just named the NFC Defensive Player of the Month for November. Collins is playing himself into Defensive Player of the Year consideration with 87 tackles, three sacks, and five interceptions.

The game of the day is an early afternoon matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons. They say that styles make fights, and these two teams couldn’t be any different stylistically. On one side you have a prolific offense with a mediocre defense and a scrappy offense with a dominant defense on the other side.

We all know that the Falcons can put up points seemingly at will with a wide array of weapons all over the field but the Chiefs may have finally discovered a dynamic playmaker of its own. If you missed the Kansas City-Denver game last week then you missed one hell of a breakout performance by Tyreek Hill. He had his fingerprints all over the Chiefs’ victory over the Broncos. Hill was easily the most important player on the field for Kansas City that night, scoring a rushing, receiving, and return touchdown during the game. Spencer Ware and Travis Kelce might be the bread and butter of this offense, but the emergence of Hill gives Kansas City a dimension that this offense has been missing during the Andy Reid era.

Atlanta’s offense against Kansas City’s defense is worth the price of admission. It’s a shame we won’t get to see Marcus Peters matchup with Julio Jones all game though, that would have been awesome to see. Kansas City doesn’t have its corners switch sides, so Peters will be on the defensive left side all day long. That will likely mean Jones will be all over the formations for Atlanta to avoid Peters on key downs.

Keep an eye out for a big day from Tevin Coleman, reports from practice this week seems to indicate that he finally has his “step back.” Atlanta is preparing for him to have an increased role in his second game since returning from a hamstring injury.

This has the makings to be a very intense game between two of the top teams in the NFL. Shockingly this game has flown under the radar on the national scale.

Before I get to my picks for the week, let’s take a quick look at tonight’s game between Dallas and Minnesota. The big storyline with this game will be the absence of Vikings coach Mike Zimmer, who had an emergency eye surgery last night, leaving special teams coach Mike Priefer with head coaching duties tonight.

This is massive for this game because Zimmer runs the defense for the Vikings. This is probably the most talented defense the Cowboys will see all season and a really good test for an offense that has been running rough-shod over the NFL, literally. Without the mastermind behind this defense running the show though, I’m very worried about any chance the Vikings have to upset the Cowboys tonight. Minnesota will need its best game of the season to shut down the league’s most efficient offense.

From Dallas’s perspective, it’s a race to 21 points tonight because Minnesota’s offense struggles mightily to put points on the board. A clean game from Dak Prescott is the key tonight, because Minnesota lives off of turning turnovers into points. Before the Zimmer news broke, I was ready to ride or die with a Minnesota upset pick but I’m going to play it safe and take Dallas (-3) tonight.

Now let’s get to the rest of my picks for this week. I barely made it out of the week alive last week, miraculously finishing 8-8. I’ll chalk that up to picking the games on Tuesday though. I’m still 14 games above .500 for the year though so let’s get back on the right track in Week 13. Here are my picks for this week (Winners in Bold).

Last Week: 8-8       2016 Season: 95-81-1

1:00 PM

Philadelphia (+1.5) vs. Cincinnati

Kansas City (+4.5) vs. Atlanta

Detroit (+6) vs. New Orleans

Los Angeles vs. New England (-13)

Jacksonville vs. Denver (-3.5)

Houston vs. Green Bay (-6.5)

Miami (+3.5) vs. Baltimore

San Francisco vs. Chicago (-1)

 

4:05/4:25 PM

Buffalo vs. Oakland (-3)

NY Giants (+6.5) vs. Pittsburgh

Washington (+2) vs. Arizona

Tampa Bay (+4) vs. San Diego

 

Sunday Night Football

Carolina vs. Seattle (-7)

 

That’s it for me today, enjoy all of the games tonight. I’ll be back tomorrow to preview and pick the conference championship games this weekend. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

The all-important final regular season week of fantasy football just got a lot more interesting. Of course I pushed back “Reality of Fantasy” to today because I wanted to track a few injures and as soon as I sit down to write a few big injuries hit the news wire. One name was already on my radar while another came as a bit of a surprise.

Two of the top tight ends in fantasy football will be on the shelf this week and beyond. Rob Gronkowski, who injured his back on Sunday, will undergo surgery on Friday to repair a herniated disk and will be out indefinitely. The Patriots wasted no time placing him on the injured reserve/designated to return list.

This move essentially ends Gronk’s fantasy season and leaves his playoff status in jeopardy. Typically this is an eight-week recovery but a back injury is nothing to mess around with so expect New England to be cautious with Gronk while he rehabs. Martellus Bennett obviously will vault up the tight end rankings with this news. Also keep an eye on receiver Malcolm Mitchell, who could have sneaky value in the as a red zone target going forward.

The surprise news of the day came out of Washington regarding Jordan Reed. If you recall, he briefly left the game on Thanksgiving with a shoulder injury but returned and scored a touchdown late in the contest. Well, it turns out the injury is worse than expected. Adam Schefter tweeted out that Reed is “unlikely to play” on Sunday against Arizona. This is a huge loss for Washington, but this means that Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon will see an increase in workload in Reed’s absence.

Now that we got the bad news out of the way, let’s go over a couple of positive injury updates from around the league. Colts QB Andrew Luck looks to be on track to play on Sunday after being a full participant in practice on Wednesday. He still needs to clear the concussion protocol but clearly a good sign to see him going with no restrictions in practice.

Bills receiver Sammy Watkins returned to practice today after sitting out Wednesday’s practice due to foot soreness. His surgically repaired foot has been nagging him all year, but seeing him getting back after what looks like a rest day is a positive sign ahead of a great matchup against the Oakland secondary.

We’ll have much more information as week get closer to Sunday for other injuries like Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker, Texans running back Lamar Miller, and Raiders receiver Michael Crabtree. Make sure to stay current with updates from the teams.

Let’s get down to business now that we’ve covered the big injuries of the week. Week 13 is finally here folks. Final playoffs spots are on the line and you don’t want to be left on the outside looking in. Instead of doing my usual best and worst matchups of the week, I’m going to identify the three best games to target that could vault you into the playoffs. Between this edition of “Reality of Fantasy” and today’s “No Huddle” that will be up later, I will have you covered for all of Week 13 so don’t think I’m going light this week.

We’ll start with what could be the highest scoring game in the early block of games. Detroit travels to New Orleans and based on what we’ve seen all year this could be one hell of a shootout. This New Orleans defense could be just what the doctor ordered for a struggling Lions offense. The Saints allowed the lowly Rams offense to put up 28 points last week, and the Lions have a lot more firepower than Los Angeles. Pro Football Focus ranks both Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees in the top-five at quarterback this week which should bode well for everyone involved.

I love the potential for the Saints here this week at home. They are fantasy darlings in the Superdome, especially against a defense that doesn’t scare me in this matchup. Michael Thomas has been the breakout talent of this offense this season racking up seven touchdowns this season. Thomas currently ranks as the 12^th best receiver in PPR heading into this week.

My one concern in this game is Saints receiver Brandin Cooks. He ranked as the 11^th best receiver in PPR going into last week before putting up the dreaded goose egg against the Rams in a game where the Saints scored 49 points. Cooks didn’t even have a target in that game and burned all of his fantasy owners in the process. Now reports are coming out that Cooks is growing frustrated with his role in the offense. He is a top-flight fantasy receiver and this is about the worst news you can hear at this time of the year, aside from an injury of course.

Aside from my concerns about Cooks, this game looks like fantasy gold in a must-win week. Not to be outdone, there are two great games in the late afternoon block of games that need your attention.

The first is a matchup of two great offenses in San Diego between the Chargers and Buccaneers. I flat out love both of these offenses in fantasy, and believe these are two teams that could win you a championship this season. Tampa Bay is heating up heading into the fantasy playoffs while San Diego has been a solid fantasy offense all season. These two teams squaring off this week is like an early Christmas present just in time to clinch a playoff berth.

I don’t think there is a hotter connection in football than the one between Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. Winston has put up 20+ points in four out of his last six games and could be in line for another such performance. Evans is unquestionably a fantasy stud, he’s on pace to lead the NFL in targets while sitting in the top-three in receptions (73), yards (1,020), and touchdowns (10).

It’s no secret that the Chargers strength is its offense, ranking fourth in the NFL in touchdowns per game. Philip Rivers is having another great season leading this offense. The only issue is figuring out which receiver is going to be the lead guy week-to-week. Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman both have put up great games in recent weeks but last week is the first time where they both eclipsed the 20-point mark. This was probably due to the fact that tight end Antonio Gates didn’t have a catch against the Texans.

I wouldn’t be worried about the Buccaneers performance on defense last week against Seattle. Tampa Bay has been a bottom-third defense most of the season so last week was the exception, not the rule. They are allowing a healthy 24 points per game on the season. I say healthy because allowing five points in a game will certainly drop any average by a large margin.

San Diego’s defense has struggled most of the season, and with the way Tampa Bay is playing I expect that trend to continue. In the last three games, the Chargers have allowed an average of 26 points per game and 360 yards per game. Obviously there is a lot to love about this game overall.

The sneaky-good fantasy game this week is a matchup between the Bills and Raiders. Now you might say that Buffalo has a good defense and an okay offense, why is this a sneakily good fantasy game? Well, it’s the Oakland effect. The Raiders have a knack for turning games into shootouts. Only twice this season has an opposing team failed to score 20-plus points against Oakland.

So while we can all agree that the Raiders are a great offense for fantasy, this is one of those games where their defense will elevate the opponents. Remember, the Bills had a good amount of success against the Seahawks a few weeks ago and that was without Sammy Watkins, who returned last week. The Raiders can give up points in bunches which is a great sign for the Bills.

Don’t get too cute with this game though, starting someone like Marquise Goodwin or Seth Roberts would be insane. I’m merely presenting a case for big games from big names in this game. The highly sought after 30-point fantasy game could be found from guys like Amari Cooper, LeSean McCoy, Derek Carr, and even Tyrod Taylor (mostly with his rushing ability).

Good luck to you all this week, I wish you all fantasy success and hopefully a berth in your league’s playoffs. Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon later today for “No Huddle” where I’ll be looking at the best games of Week 13 and making my picks for the week. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

We are four days away from the College Football Playoff bracket being finalized and there is a few interesting scenarios that could play out between then. The CFP committee released its penultimate rankings last night ahead of the conference championship this weekend. While they rank the top-25 teams in the country, we really only need to focus on the top-ten to figure out what the final four will look like this Sunday. Here are the rankings as of last night:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Penn State
8. Colorado
9. Oklahoma
10. Oklahoma State

Pretty intriguing with how some of these teams stack up against one another. There are a few key takeaways to keep in mind as we approach the conference title games this weekend. The first is the positioning of the Big 12 teams, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Sitting at #9 and #10 respectively, the committee is already telling us that the Big 12 champion won’t even be in the conversation on Sunday. Regardless of who wins between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, there is no chance that they jump all the way up into the top four.

No surprises there since we’ve known since mid-October that this conference didn’t have much of a chance to have a representative this year. The real surprise is the rankings of two teams from the Big Ten, #5 Michigan and #7 Penn State.

We’ll start with Michigan, since this is the ranking that probably turned quite a few heads last night. The Wolverines may not be out of the mix like most thought they would be after losing to rival Ohio State over the weekend. Despite losing two of its last three games, one of those being to an unranked team, Michigan would be the primary beneficiary of upsets in conference title games. Couple the ranking with the clarification from committee chair Kirby Hocutt that there is a “very slim” margin between Washington and Michigan and you can see that maybe a lack of a conference title might not mean all too much in the eyes of the committee.

That bodes well for #2 Ohio State, who will not be playing in the Big Ten championship game, for being a lock to secure one of the playoff spots. Usually where there is good news, there is bad news and these rankings can’t be a good sign for #6 Wisconsin and #7 Penn State. They will be playing for the Big Ten championship and unless there is a dominant performance by one of the teams in that game, it’s unlikely that either gets in.

I’m cautious to use the word impossible though because I believe that Penn State has the best chance to sneak into the playoff. The Nittany Lions are one of the hottest teams in the nation right now and they have the head-to-head victory over Ohio State to pad its resume. Penn State will need some help in the final weekend though.

Currently Ohio State is the only marquee win over a top-ten opponent on the resume for Penn State. A win over Wisconsin would give them two top-ten wins, but they would also need Temple to upset #19 Navy in the AAC title game and hope the Owls end up in the final rankings. That would be a third win over a top-25 opponent, which would be the same number of wins Ohio State has over the top-25 (although the Buckeyes have better wins, namely #5 Michigan). It’s not the most improbable scenario ever considering what we have already seen so far this year. Penn State would have to win convincingly to make any of this possible.

You could make the argument that Penn State or Wisconsin winning the conference championship might help Michigan more than the champion since the Wolverine beat both teams this season. Unfortunately, we don’t know how conference championships would factor into playoff considerations since Hocutt said, “there haven’t been any conference champions yet.”

#3 Clemson and #4 Washington are the teams that will control whether we get chalk or chaos on Sunday. Each will be in their respective conference title game, and will be facing a capable opponent. Clemson is currently a double-digit favorite to beat #23 Virginia Tech while Washington is a touchdown favorite over #8 Colorado. Any upset in either of those games will open the door for all of the scenarios I mentioned before and possibly one that we haven’t even considered yet.

Just about the only thing we know for sure is #1 Alabama is in no matter what happens against #15 Florida in the SEC title game. The Tide played the second-toughest schedule and is the top team in the Strength of Record and Game Control metrics that the committee uses to determine these rankings. Even using just the eye test, Alabama looks like the best team in the country.

The presumptive madness kicks off on Friday night with the Pac-12 championship game between Washington and Colorado. It should be an incredible weekend of football and speculation, as we get closer to noon on Sunday when the final CFP rankings are announced and the top-four is finalized.

That’s it for me today, there are some key injuries that I am tracking so I’ll be doing “Reality of Fantasy” tomorrow along with “No Huddle” covering Week 13 from all angles. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.