Boy does a month go by fast. It seems like just yesterday we were all arguing over the selection committee’s choices for the third edition of the College Football Playoff, but now we are here. Less than 24 hours from now, the semi-finals will be upon us. Four teams vying the opportunity at winning a national championship, and each has the chance at writing a unique story.

For Alabama it’s a chance at a fifth national championship in eight years, continuing a string of dominance that we haven’t seen in the modern era of college football. It would also tie Nick Saban with Paul “Bear” Bryant for the most national titles of all time. Ohio State is looking for its second national championship in three years and the establishment of its own dynasty-in-the-making under coach Urban Meyer. Clemson has the chance to avenge last season’s heartbreaking loss in the national championship game and bring home a title of its own. Finally, Washington gets the chance to prove all of the doubters wrong and coach Chris Petersen finally gets his shot against the best coaches in the nation a decade after his Boise State team shocked the world in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

While most of the week has been spent bashing the CFP for diminishing bowl season, I think the storylines we have in front of us are too rich to ignore. So let’s dive in and take a look at both of tomorrow’s games. I’ll also give you my game picks and my picks against the spread.

Peach Bowl (#1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington), 3:00 PM, ESPN

The first national semi-final has the potential to steal the entire weekend if things go the right way. Let’s get the obvious out of the way though. Alabama is the consensus pick in this game by the experts, Vegas likes the Tide by two touchdowns, and this game is happening in Bama’s backyard (Atlanta, GA, site of the SEC Championship game). You also have the added factor of Alabama’s tendency to blow out its opponent on the big stage.

So rather than wax poetic about why the Tide should win this game, let me lay out the way that Washington could pull off one of biggest upsets since that ’07 Fiesta Bowl. Here are the three keys for a Washington upset tomorrow afternoon.

First, it’s all about winning the turnover battle for Washington. The Huskies have one of the most underrated defenses in the country and could force freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts into mistakes. This defense is tough and opportunistic. Washington’s defense averages 2.5 takeaways per game and is +21 in turnover differential. While Alabama’s freshman quarterback has been pretty solid all year, he is not immune to turning the ball over.

So far this season Hurts has thrown nine interceptions, and fumbled the ball ten times (five lost fumbles though). The Tide have gotten a few fortunate bounces, but those haven’t really mattered considering its defense is the best in the country, which leaves them some room for error with the young quarterback. A strong pass rush will help in forcing Hurts into some questionable decisions with the football. Washington averages three sacks per game, but will need to turn up the heat and get somewhere near five or six sacks in this game.

The second key to the game is sophomore quarterback Jake Browning. While he has put up great numbers all year, his worst games have come against the best defenses that the Pac-12 has had to offer (USC, Utah, Colorado). Browning has struggled throwing the deep ball against more talented defenses in the latter half of the season, but there is no doubt this kid can play. With a month of prep, Browning had plenty of time to get coached up.

Alabama loves to blitz, so this offensive line will have to give Browning time to throw, but more importantly he will need to make the Tide pay down the field. Chunk plays in the passing game are vitally important. Another way to help out Browning against this Alabama defense is getting Washington’s stellar running back duo going early. Myles Gaskin (1,339 yards, 5.9 yards per rush, 10 TDs) and Lavon Coleman (836 yards, 7.8 yards per rush, 7 TDs) have been the workhorses of this offense all season.

I think the most intriguing key to this game is coach Chris Petersen. While hardcore college football fans know him from his days at Boise State, he isn’t exactly a household name. He is the master of the trick play, and you’ll never know when he’ll dial up a little trickeration. Urban Meyer is one of the few coaches that can go toe-to-toe with Nick Saban, but Petersen is severely underrated and finally gets his chance to prove he belongs in the upper echelon of college coaches.

Now like I said there is good reason for Alabama being such a heavy favorite, but don’t count the Huskies out. They have the tools to slay the beast from the Southeastern Conference. I think this game has the chance to be a hell of a lot closer than the experts believe it will be. Don’t sleep on this one folks.

Game Pick:Washington      ATS Pick: Washington (+14)

 

Fiesta Bowl (#2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State), 7:00 PM, ESPN

It’s going to be a battle in the desert for the nightcap tomorrow as Clemson and Ohio State square off in the second national semi-final. For this game it really boils down to the coaching matchup and the quarterback matchup. Dabo Swinney and Urban Meyer are the two of the best coaches not named “Nick Saban.” These two should make for one hell of a chess match in what should be an intense, high scoring affair. Both coaches are known for their offensive minds, which definitely add to the hype going into this game.

In addition to the coaching matchup, this is one of the best quarterback matchups we’ve seen since Winston/Mariota two years ago. J.T. Barrett was in the midst of a Heisman campaign two years ago before an injury ended his season (and we all know how that season ended). Now, Barrett has the Buckeyes back in the playoff and it is his turn to finish what he started two years ago. Argue all you want about whether OSU should have been in the playoffs in the first place, but let me tell you right away that this team is no fluke. With Barrett at the helm this is a multi-dimensional offense that can attack you in several different ways. This offense can score against even the best defenses in the country (30 points scored in each game against Wisconsin and Michigan).

On the other side of this matchup is Deshaun Watson. This year’s runner-up for the Heisman trophy has been spectacular all season, bailing his team out of tough spots left and right. Fox Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt called Watson the best “big game” quarterback in college on today’s The Herd with Colin Cowherd. Hard to argue against that when you look at what Watson has done on the biggest stages.

He led Clemson to victories over Louisville, (at) Florida State, and Virginia Tech this season. The Tigers scored 42, 37, and 42 points respectively in those games. Last season, Watson put up 45, 37, and 45 points between the ACC title victory over North Carolina, the national semi-final win against Oklahoma, and the national title loss to Alabama. There is no question that Watson can put up a ton of points when he is on his game.

My only concern with him this season is that he has gotten a little too loose thowing the football this season. Watson has already eclipsed his interception numbers from last season (13 INTs in 15 games in 2015, 15 INTs so far in 13 games this season). That being said he still completes 67 percent of his passes, which is pretty impressive.

Clemson has played with fire all season, failing to put lesser teams away while battling with its more talented opponents. Ohio State is a gritty football team that knows how to fight. This should be a fantastic football game all the way until the bitter end. Hell with these two teams, maybe we can get a little overtime.

Game Pick: Clemson           ATS Pick: Clemson (+2.5)

Enjoy the games tomorrow and have a happy new year everyone! It’s back to business as usual next week with a full slate of content to kick off 2017. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Well folks the final week of the regular season is finally here. The end of four grueling months of football has led to one last chance to clinch a playoff berth. All six spots in the AFC have been decided, now things just depend on seeding. Over in the NFC, we only know a few pieces of that puzzle. The only things that are for sure is that Dallas is locked in as the #1 seed, and Seattle/New York/Atlanta are in. Seeding, the NFC North, and the final wild card spot will all be decided on Sunday. Green Bay, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Washington all have their playoff lives on the line in Week 17.

While most of the intrigue is squarely on the NFC, don’t sleep on the AFC this week, especially with three backup quarterbacks leading playoff teams. With MVP candidate Derek Carr out of the mix in Oakland, the outlook of the AFC is in flux. This should be a very fun week for sure.

Now I’m skipping this week’s power rankings due to all of the upheaval in the status quo with injuries and such. Next week I’ll be doing a full rundown of the 12-playoff teams. Sit back and enjoy the ride though. With all sixteen games going down on Sunday, everything from playoff teams to draft picks will be decided by the end of the Packers-Lions game in primetime.

For today’s “No Huddle” I’ll be looking at the most important games on the schedule and making my picks against the spread. Are you excited? I hope so, because the last week of the season gets a little crazy with the high stakes combined with teams looking ahead to the playoffs. As of right now, Dallas is likely treating this week as a preseason game (with a possible Tony Romo sighting), and Pittsburgh is resting all its key guys.

We’ll start off with the Sunday night game between Green Bay and Detroit. This game has the most to say about the NFC playoff seeding. The winner is the champion of the NFC North, which is currently good for the #4 seed in the NFC. That would mean a date with the Giants in the Wild Card round. Both teams are rooting for the Giants earlier in the day because a win by New York over Washington secures playoff berths for both teams before the game even starts. The other scenario that gets both teams into the playoffs is the game ending in a tie.

As far as the matchup goes, it’s tough to pick against either team right now. Detroit has been feisty all season but is coming off an embarrassing loss last week (reverse momentum theory pops up once again). Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFL right now and is one win away from fulfilling Aaron Rodgers’s guarantee that this team could run the table at 4-6.

The big injury to keep an eye on is the status of Lions cornerback Darius Slay. He was injured in that Monday night game and once he went out with a hamstring injury, Detroit’s defense fell apart. His presence is the key for Detroit to have any chance in this game.

Even with Slay playing at less than 100 percent, that is a huge advantage for the Packers. The Rodgers-Jordy Nelson connection is unstoppable right now, as evidenced by last week’s performance against Minnesota. Defensively for Green Bay, Clay Matthews is playing his best football of the season and that gives the front-seven an added edge to stopping the wily Matthew Stafford.

At best, this game becomes a shootout between two up-tempo offenses. However, I have a feeling Detroit could be in for a long night with the NFC North title and a potential playoff spot on the line. Regardless of the outcome, we’ll know exactly how high the stakes in this game will be before kickoff.

Which brings us to the second-most important game of the week, which is an NFC East battle between the Giants and the Redskins. There is no word on whether or not New York will be full go for this game, but all signs point to the Giants not resting starters on Sunday. A chance to knock out a division rival as a playoff warm-up is too juicy to pass up.

I think that the Giants, with the way this defense has played down the stretch, could be the most dangerous team in the NFC. We’ll have a classic “unstoppable force” meets “immovable object” situation on Sunday. Washington, when healthy, is a tough offense to stop. Even on a bad night, Kirk Cousins can still put up over 300 yards passing. That is a scary thought because that means you are either A) scoring a ton yourself (something the Giants don’t do), or B) bending but not breaking by getting red zone stops (something the Giants can do).

Despite how well this defense plays for the Giants, I do think that Eli Manning needs to have a statement game before we can start getting serious about a Super Bowl run for New York. Six interceptions in four games doesn’t exactly have a Lombardi Trophy ring to it. If New York wants to rely on this defense, Manning at least needs to protect the football.

Either way this should be a great game between two of the oldest rivals in the NFL. I do have my concerns that the Giants could pull the plug on this game if Washington pulls ahead by too much. Protecting the key players before a potential matchup with Green Bay might outweigh knocking out a divisional foe.

Let’s quickly get to my picks against the spread for the week. Christmas wasn’t as merry as I would have hoped for, going 9-7 overall. Hopefully we can end the regular season with a bang and ring in 2017 on a high note. Here are my picks for Week 17 (Winners in Bold).

Last Week: 9-7         2016 Season: 132-107-1

 1:00 PM

Dallas vs. Philadelphia (-5)

Baltimore (-1) vs. Cincinnati

Houston (+3.5) vs. Tennessee

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay (-4)

Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis (-4.5)

New England vs. Miami (+9.5)

Chicago (+6) vs. Minnesota

Buffalo (-3.5) vs. NY Jets

Cleveland (+6.5) vs. Pittsburgh

 

4:25 PM

New Orleans (+7) vs. Atlanta

NY Giants vs. Washington (-7.5)

Arizona (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles

Oakland vs. Denver (-1.5)

Kansas City (-5) vs. San Diego

Seattle (-9.5) vs. San Francisco

 

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay (-3.5) vs. Detroit

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon, I’ll have my preview of tomorrow’s CFP semi-final games up later tonight. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

The NFL might be trying to dominate the holiday weekend, but the NBA takes center stage on Sunday with the annual Christmas quintuple-header. Five games on Sunda will be showcasing the best of the league, and some up-and-coming teams in the NBA. We all know that it all centers around the first matchup of the year between Golden State and Cleveland, but there are some interesting games on the schedule. It’s not the most loaded slate of games, but there are definitely some intriguing matchups to watch during the day. Today’s “Heat Check” is going to touch on all five games and give you something to watch in each game.

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks (12:00 PM, ESPN)

This matchup of the second and third place teams in the Atlantic division kicks off the action on Christmas day. Both teams have been on a great run as of late which should elevate the play in this one. Isaiah Thomas is the focal point of Boston’s offense, and when healthy he has been incredible so far in 2016. The offensive matchup between Thomas and Carmelo Anthony should be fun to watch. I definitely can’t wait to see the one-on-one matchup between Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis. You have a perennial All-Star and an emerging superstar squaring off with Horford and Porzingis. This will be a tone-setter between these division foes.

Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2:30 PM, ABC)

The Rematch. That alone is worth the price of admission here. The two best teams in the NBA the last three seasons squaring off? Count me in. Kevin Durant in the mix adds another layer of intrigue to this matchup that we haven’t seen these past two seasons. Durant likely draws LeBron James or Kevin Love while on offense, and will definitely matchup with James on defense. I’m interested to see how the Warriors new “Death Lineup” will deal with Cleveland’s versatility. Make sure you are settled in for this one folks, it is going to be one hell of a game.

Chicago Bulls vs. San Antonio Spurs (5:00 PM, ABC)

For me, this is one of the more interesting games of the day. On one side you have Chicago, which is still trying to gel with the trio of Rajon Rondo, Dwayne Wade, and Jimmy Butler but comes into the game losing seven out of the last ten. Then you have San Antonio, which is the second-best team in the tough Western Conference and the perennial power in the NBA. I absolutely can’t wait to watch the matchup of Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler in this game. They are two of the best rising stars in the league right now and it won’t be long before both of them will factor into the MVP race every season.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (8:00 PM, ESPN)

It may not be the best matchup of the day but this one has the potential to be a fun game to watch. Russell Westbrook is obviously the draw in this game considering he’s the resident “human highlight reel” this season. I want to focus on the Timberwolves though. Minnesota’s record is pretty ugly right now but this team is in the midst of building around one of the best young core of players in the league. Karl-Anthony Towns will be the preeminent center in the NBA sooner rather than later. Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine are a high-flying duo, which should produce their fair share of highlight plays. This game is definitely worth watching as long as it stays competitive.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers (10:30 PM, ESPN)

Man this game looked so much better before December started. The Clippers are a top-three team in the West but lost Blake Griffin earlier this week. Then there are the Lakers, who have taken a massive nosedive since the beginning of the month. If there is one matchup to keep an eye on its whenever Chris Paul and D’Angelo Russell are covering each other. Outside of that I think the Clippers should dominate the “Battle of L.A.”

That’s it for me this week folks. I want to wish you all happy holidays! I’ll be back on Tuesday for a shortened week of coverage for Shooting the Moon. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Fantasy championship week is finally here! 15 mentally grueling weeks trying to outsmart your friends and co-workers have led to this. One game separates you from the glory of victory or the agony of being the first loser. Financially second place isn’t too bad but is still a consolation prize nonetheless. We’re here for championships though, so we’re going to zero in on the best matchups of the week.

You know, fantasy football is really a funny game. One of the things I do when prepping for the regular season is to look ahead to Week 16. I circle a couple of games that I think can be exploited and target certain players accordingly. Whether that means drafting them or keeping their name on my radar for down the road. Sometimes I’ll make the mistake of drafting too much for that week which leaves me at the mercy of a team or two that may not be such a sound investment.

Last year I was right on the money when I looked ahead, making moves to get invested in the Jaguars-Saints game. This season I got a little too hot on the Buccaneers-Saints game, and of course the only league championship I’m playing for is with a team that has no one in that game. It just goes to show how much can change in just a few months.

Hopefully some of you had some better luck than I did when looking ahead at the schedule in draft prep or making a great deadline move. Let’s get down to business though and talk about the three best games/matchups of the week.

Best Game: Indianapolis vs. Oakland

On the surface, I love the potential matchup here. Two great offenses squaring off in Oakland should make for one of the best games of Saturday. Even better? Both defenses rank in the bottom quarter of the league in passing defense. Andrew Luck and Derek Carr will both have the opportunity to light up the opposing defense in this game. That means T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Donte Moncrief, and Seth Roberts are all candidates for WR1 (Hilton/Cooper), WR2 (Crabtree), and WR3/Flex (Moncrief/Roberts) consideration this week. The weather looks good for this game too so definitely target this game.

Top Matchup: Atlanta (vs. Carolina)

This NFC South matchup should produce a great fantasy day for the Falcons. Atlanta has been able to survive these past few games without Julio Jones and in fact, they’ve thrived without their best player. Devonta Freeman is coming off of his best game of the season while Taylor Gabriel continues to look like a waiver-add that could win you a championship. Matt Ryan owners have to be giddy with the prospect of this matchup. Despite the performance of the Panthers on Monday night, I think that this offense is too much to handle right now.

* San Diego has a great matchup this week with Cleveland as well.

Sneaky Matchup: Houston (vs. Cincinnati)

Call me crazy, but I think Tom Savage can unlock the potential of this Houston offense. We’ve waited all year to finally see what this young core of skill players can do, and now they have finally pulled the plug on Brock Osweiler. Just from watching the difference between the offense with Savage and Osweiler at the helm, you can easily see that Savage is an upgrade. Now the matchup isn’t great but I think that Houston’s skill players are very underrated in terms of talent. Obviously the production hasn’t been there. That being said, something totally changed last week with the benching of Osweiler.

Good Matchups: Washington (vs. Chicago), Tampa Bay (vs. New Orleans), New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay), Tennessee (vs. Jacksonville), Miami (vs. Buffalo), New England (vs. NY Jets), Chicago (vs. Washington)

Tough Matchups: San Francisco (vs. Los Angeles), NY Jets (vs. New England), Cincinnati (vs. Houston), Denver (vs. Kansas City), Kansas City (vs. Denver), Pittsburgh (vs. Baltimore), Baltimore (vs. Pittsburgh)

Good luck to all of you vying for a fantasy championship this week. The final “Reality of Fantasy” for the 2016 season will be an awards edition and focus on dynasty leagues. Stay tuned for “Heat Check” which will be up later today. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Here we go folks. Christmas is just around the corner and the NFL is going to be a staple for your holiday viewing pleasure. With two games left on the schedule for every team, the stakes are huge for the playoff contenders. Today’s “No Huddle” is going to be looking at tonight’s game between the Giants and Eagles then I’ll be going over the three most important games of Week 16.

Tonight’s game definitely lacks a bit of luster with the Eagles slowly falling apart before our eyes, but if we know anything about rivalry games, you can throw the records right out the window. That being said, this is a matchup of teams clearly going in opposite directions. Philadelphia was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week while New York is looking like a serious contender in the NFC.

The rivalry factor in this game should make for a fun contest tonight. NFC East games tend to get a little crazy in late December. We have all seen how great the Giants defense has been in recent weeks, so the pressure will definitely be on Philadelphia to take care of the football on offense and to contain Odell Beckham Jr. on defense.

This game being in Philadelphia is certainly a factor too, but the best home wins for the Eagles were in September and October. The Eagles are not the same team that we saw at the beginning of the season. New York can’t afford to slip up tonight, especially with the NFC East title still up for grabs. A loss tonight would essentially give Dallas the division crown and all but guarantee a first-round bye for the Cowboys.

As for the pick tonight, I usually don’t like picking against the Eagles in Philadelphia considering that they have beaten playoff teams. However, the line is just right, I’m going with the New York Giants (+1.5) tonight.

Let’s move onto the most important games of Week 16. This is kind of an odd week for the schedule since the NFL is going with an all-out approach. Saturday has a full slate of games for Christmas Eve, while Christmas Day gets a double-dose of primetime games before getting the final Monday night game of the year. Unfortunately, Saturday is more quantity than quality but definitely keep an eye on Indianapolis-Oakland, Atlanta-Carolina, Green Bay-Minnesota, and Arizona-Seattle.

In terms of importance, it’s all about Sunday and Monday this week. We’ll start with the late afternoon game on Christmas day between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The AFC North title will be at stake. Pittsburgh could clinch the division with a win while Baltimore can complete a season-sweep of the Steelers and give itself the inside track to clinch the AFC North next week.

Last time we saw these rivals squared off, Baltimore totally shut down Pittsburgh and benefitted from a 95-yard Mike Wallace touchdown before sealing the game late with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. The Ravens defense was the star of the game holding Big Ben under 300 yards passing, Le’Veon Bell to 36 rushing yards, and Antonio Brown to 85 receiving yards.

The rematch is in Pittsburgh, and while I would expect to see another defensive clash, home-field advantage is a huge key to the game. In 2016, the Steelers are 4-2 at home while the Ravens are only 2-4 on the road. Baltimore is a much different team away from home. That is bad news for its playoff hopes because Pittsburgh looks ready for a playoff run right now.

Baltimore still sports one of the best defenses in the NFL but they will need to recapture the magic of the first matchup to win this game. As I’m writing this, I would give a slight edge to Pittsburgh in this matchup.

If Baltimore-Pittsburgh is the appetizer, the main course is definitely the Sunday night game between Denver and Kansas City. The first matchup between these AFC West rivals was a classic overtime thriller that came down to a game-winning kick by Cairo Santos as time expired.

Between both of the divisional games on Christmas, I think that Denver-KC is the one more likely to be a completely different type of game. Last game turned into a shootout by the end of the game, but a late December game in Kansas City isn’t exactly the formula for replicating the outcome of the first game.

I would expect to see a slow, methodical, and hard-hitting game. That type of game won’t swing the direction of the game one way or another because a defensive contest suits both teams.

Kansas City needs to win to stay within one game of the Raiders in the battle for the AFC West and the #2 seed in the AFC. Denver is in full desperation mode after losing to New England last week. Time is running out on the defending champs to get it together and get back into the playoffs.

I think the Chiefs are a more complete football team especially after news broke about the locker room screaming match in Denver last Sunday. This is the time of year where teams need to come together, but the champs might be falling apart at the seams. Either way this should be an absolute slugfest on Christmas night in Kansas City.

Now I usually save the Monday night game for my “Weekend Recap” but since this is a holiday weekend we’re going to talk Detroit-Dallas. The season finale for Monday Night Football gets the most important game of the week in the NFC. Dallas has been the darling of the NFL this season behind the rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot while Detroit has been living on the edge all season but Matthew Stafford has been the (literal) saving grace of this team.

This has the makings to be a great one from AT&T Stadium. Dallas is all about ball-control on offense, and this defense has been a pleasant surprise in recent weeks. Defensive end David Erving is emerging as a dominant pass rusher for the Cowboys and you could make the argument that he won Dallas the game last week. Erving is potentially a one-man wreaking crew for this defense and he will be a huge key to stopping this quick-passing attack from Detroit.

I still haven’t quite figured out these Lions though, to be honest this team is an enigma. Detroit has been down in the fourth quarter of every single game this season (a feat only matched by the Cleveland Browns) but still stands at the top of the NFC North at 9-5.

Dallas could already have the NFC East and home-field advantage wrapped up by kick-off, so this could just be a playoff tune-up for them. Detroit, on the other hand, is trying to hold off the surging Packers in the NFC North. A wild card berth is still in play but obviously Detroit would rather not take its chances looking for help in the final week because it’s only a matter of time before its luck runs out.

Now its time for my game picks. I got humbled a bit last week, a good start led to calamity in the early afternoon games. 2-6 in that time slot is one of my worst stretches all season. Luckily I reeled off an unbeaten stretch the rest of the day. Monday night kept me from getting above .500 for a fourth consecutive week though. I’ll take breaking even considering how bad things looked early on Sunday. Here are my picks for all of Week 16 (Winners in Bold).

Last Week: 8-8         2016 Season: 123-100-1

Saturday

1:00 PM

Miami (+4.5) vs. Buffalo

NY Jets (+16.5) vs. New England

Tennessee (-5) vs. Jacksonville

Minnesota vs. Green Bay (-7)

San Diego (-5.5) vs. Cleveland

Washington (-3) vs. Chicago

Atlanta (-3) vs. Carolina

4:05/4:25 PM

Indianapolis vs. Oakland (-3.5)

Tampa Bay (+3) vs. New Orleans

Arizona (+8) vs. Seattle

San Francisco vs. Los Angeles (-4.5)

 

8:25 PM

Cincinnati vs. Houston (EVEN)

 

Sunday

4:30 PM

Baltimore (+5.5) vs. Pittsburgh

Sunday Night Football

Denver vs. Kansas City (-3.5)

 

Monday Night Football

Detroit (+7.5) vs. Dallas

 

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon, I’m working on the championship edition of “Reality of Fantasy” and the Christmas preview for “Heat Check.” Both will be up by tomorrow at the latest, things get a little crazy this time of year. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Whew. I hope you have all recovered from last weekend, because there is no time for rest coming down the home stretch. Christmas weekend is quickly approaching with a literal cornucopia of games on the schedule. We have the regular Thursday game, a full slate of games on Saturday, two playoff caliber games on Sunday, and the final Monday night game of the year.

It’s the final portion of the home stretch and the playoff picture is slowly coming into form. Seven teams in each conference have a shot in the wild card, which still leaves room for some crazy scenarios to play out. For example, Carolina is holding onto the slimmest of hopes right now following last night’s win over Washington. The Panthers have a one-in-250,000 chance of sneaking into the playoffs, needing Green Bay and Tampa Bay to lose out with Washington tying another game, among a number of specific things that have to take place over these next two weeks.

That is the craziest scenario that could play out right now, but let’s get real here for a minute. The NFC playoff picture caught my attention this morning because we have two instances where a tie isn’t really a tie and will shape the playoffs just as much as these next two games. Seattle and Washington both have a tie on record, but those ties are having the opposite effect on their respective playoff chances.

Seattle is currently holding a half-game lead over Atlanta and Detroit for the #2 seed in the NFC. Not only does that mean a home playoff game for the Seahawks, but that also gives them the all-important first-round bye at the moment. If you recall from last week, I mentioned that 18 of the last 26 Super Bowl champions had a first-round bye. That half-game means quite a bit right now for Seattle.

On the other hand you have Washington, where that tie is severely hurting its playoff chances in the wild card. The Giants have a stranglehold on the #5 seed leaving only the final playoff spot in play for the time being. Green Bay is on fire right now with two winnable games, and Tampa Bay also has two games it could reasonably win. The half-game deficit for Washington has it on the outside looking in right now and potentially is what leaves them out of the playoffs in two weeks.

Those are the two largest instances of those early season games coming back to help or haunt potential playoff teams. You’ll hear a lot about the tie-breaking procedures that the NFL has in place and trust me its pretty extensive. That game a team stole or blew in Week 2 could be more significant that a win in Week 17. It’s a compelling situation we have on our hands right now and should be a lot of fun to watch play out.

I’ll get into the most important games later this week but for now let’s set the table with my latest set of power rankings and the watch list heading into Week 16. Kansas City was the only team in my top-five to lose this week so there is no earth-shattering movement this week.

(1) New England Patriots (12-2) – Last Week: 1

It wasn’t pretty but the Patriots got the job done against the Broncos in Denver last week. Mile High was one of the few places that New England has had issues in recent years so getting the road win definitely lifted a weight off of this team. New England also clinched an NFL-record eighth straight AFC East title. It’s the 13^th division title during the 15-year Brady-Belichick era. That is unparalleled dominance in a league driven by parity. Now the Patriots look to secure home-field advantage in the postseason. They will have to take care of business against the Jets on Saturday to move one game closer to the AFC going through Foxborough.

(2) Dallas Cowboys (12-2) – Last Week: 2

Dallas fans can move off of the ledge now, the Cowboys are just fine. Dak Prescott played his best game of the season on Sunday night essentially silencing any doubts voiced leading up to the game. Prescott was masterful completing 32-of-36 passes, which gave him the second-highest in-game completion percentage ever. Not too shabby if you ask me. Then you have the performance of Ezekiel Elliot and the Dallas rushing attack. Elliot’s 159-yard night running the ball is one of his best of the season but reaffirmed to the rest of the league that when this offense is on its “A” game, they are going to be incredibly difficult to beat in the playoffs. I hope you all aren’t getting sick of Dallas in primetime because for the third week in a row we get Dallas in one of the prime slots. The Cowboys host Detroit on Monday night with an opportunity to finally clinch the NFC East.

(3) Oakland Raiders (11-3) – Last Week: 4

Another gutsy road win for Oakland secured its first playoff berth in 13 years, and vaults them to the third spot in my rankings this week. I do have some issues about the Raiders though. Obviously this defense can make plays, but is vulnerable against a good offense. A potential divisional round matchup against Pittsburgh is a nightmare scenario for the silver and black. As much as I love this offense, the sudden uptick in running plays out of the shotgun and pistol formations is a cause for concern. It makes this offense a little more predictable, and limits the personnel they can have on the field. When Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree aren’t on the field at the same time, you have a pretty good idea of what the play might be. Hopefully this is just Oakland testing something out before the playoffs, and not a trend. This week brings a potential playoff preview between Oakland and Indianapolis.

(4) New York Giants (10-4) – Last Week: 5

A huge win for the Giants moves them up to the fourth spot in this week’s power rankings. Once again, this defense stepped up in a big way against Detroit. Yesterday on The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Cowherd called New York this year’s version of Denver. Behind the strength of this defense, the Giants are definitely the team you don’t want to play in the NFC right now. They are not only keeping the Giants in games, but winning them a fair share of these one-possession games. I still think this offense is severely underperforming for all of the talent they have at the skill positions. No running game, a weak offensive line, and Eli Manning having one of his worst seasons are all things that have me concerned about the Giants in the playoffs. It’s a short week for the G-men with a Thursday matchup against division rival Philadelphia in the city of brotherly love.

(5) Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) – Last Week: 3

Tennessee’s comeback win in Kansas City drops the Chiefs down to #5 in my rankings this week. Now, it didn’t drop them out because I think the Titans are an underrated team that can win the AFC South. This is still a bad loss for the Chiefs though. Blowing a ten-point lead in the second-half with the talent on this defense is a bad sign. Clock management doomed Kansas City on Sunday. That is a costly loss for the Chiefs, dropping them from the AFC West-leading #2 seed, all the way down to the #5 seed. No time for licking wounds though, this week brings a critical Sunday night matchup with Denver, and we all remember how the first game turned out. It will be a playoff atmosphere at Arrowhead on Christmas.

Watch List: Seattle (9-4-1), Pittsburgh (9-5), Green Bay (8-6), Detroit (9-5), Atlanta (9-5), Baltimore (8-6), Tennessee (8-6), Miami (9-5), Tampa Bay (8-6), Houston (8-6)

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” with a preview of the Christmas quintuple-header in the NBA. Be on the lookout for a championship edition “Reality of Fantasy” on Thursday. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

We are one weekend closer to 2017, and the holidays are almost here. 2016 could not have gone by any faster, just seems like last week that we were all making New Year’s resolutions. These next two weeks are going to fly by. Let’s take care of a little business before I get into the “Weekend” Recap.” This is going to be a normal week, but next week will be a short one (No “Reality of Fantasy,” with only one “No Huddle” and one “Heat Check.”).

Now let’s get into the recap. We got one hell of a day in the NFL yesterday. It was a sneakily fun day of football, and if you were able to watch the Redzone channel you know what I’m talking about. The quad-box that ran from about 3:45 until the end of the early games was incredible.

In real-time you had the end of Chicago-Green Bay, Tennessee-Kansas City, Philadelphia-Baltimore, Jacksonville-Houston, and Pittsburgh-Cincinnati games all playing out right in front of you. Rarely does everything line up that nicely, and it was crazy way to end the early session. This has kind of been a down season for the Redzone channel so it was awesome to finally get a few chaotic finishes.

The game that stole the headlines of the early games was the one between Tennessee and Kansas City. What a finish we got there. Kansas City controlled 90 percent of that game, but let the Titans hang around. It was only a matter of time before Tennessee put a drive together late in that game. Derrick Henry punched in his second touchdown of the game and the Titans pulled within one with three minutes left.

Underdog team on the road against the current #2 seed in the AFC, you play for the tie right? Nope, Mike Mularky put the ball in Marcus Mariota’s hands to try and steal the game. Unfortunately, the Chiefs pass rush had other ideas. Multiple defenders swarmed Mariota, forcing him to throw incomplete under duress. Titans trailed 17-16 with 3:12 left in the game.

Tell me if you have heard this one before though. A team coached by Andy Reid mismanaged the clock in a potential game-winning situation. Yep, the Chiefs were unable to run out the clock and even left a little extra time left for the Titans to have one last chance to win the game.

Mariota and the Tennessee offense took over at their own 25-yard line, with 1:07 left in the game and no timeouts. The former Heisman winner looked like a seasoned vet on the final drive, calmly working the middle of the field and picking up chunk yardage on three consecutive plays to put the Titans in field goal range with five seconds in the game.

Former Chiefs kicker Ryan Succop lined up for a 53-yard field goal and shanked the potential game-winner low and left. It would have been over had Andy Reid not called timeout. Succop got another shot at the kick and wouldn’t let that opportunity slip by. The former Mr. Irrelevant absolutely drilled the field goal as time expired to give Tennessee a 19-17 road win. Even more incredible than the kick was the shoulder-shrugging comments made by Succop to a reporter that surfaced on Twitter shortly after the game. Reportedly Succop knew that in that cold weather, he was out of range for the field goal and has no idea how he made that kick. You can’t write this stuff folks.

That was just one of the eight “one-possession” games that we got yesterday. The on-field drama was almost trumped by the off-field drama that Week 15 produced. Before we get to the Monday night game, lets get into some of the extra-curricular activity from a busy Sunday.

There is a QB controversy in the state of Texas, no not that team though. Houston looks to have finally pulled the plug on its $87 million dollar man, Brock Osweiler. After his second early interception against Jacksonville, Osweiler got the hook from head coach Bill O’Brien. Tom Savage entered the game to a raucous reaction from the restless Houston crowd, and the entire offense got rolling. Savage engineered a potential season-saving comeback.

Houston is going to have some evaluating to do after the season, but for the time being this offense belongs to Savage, leaving Osweiler as the most expensive backup in the league. It was the right move if the Texans want any chance of winning the AFC South over the Titans.

The Houston-Jacksonville game also led to the second head coaching change of the season. Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley was relieved of his duties shortly after his team lost its 12^th game of the season. Things just never seemed to work in Jacksonville for Bradley, so this move may have been long overdue. Former Bills head coach Doug Marrone will take over for Bradley for the remainder of the year.

In other news out of the AFC, we have two stories from teams that are going in opposite directions in the AFC West. Oakland clinched its first playoff appearance in 13 seasons after pulling off a resilient win in San Diego 19-16. The victory also put the Raiders back in the lead of the division and sole possession of the #2 seed in the conference. With two games left, it is a two-team battle between Oakland and Kansas City in the AFC West.

That leaves the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos on the verge of missing the playoffs. Denver was dealt a near deathblow to its playoff hopes by Tom Brady and the Patriots. Reports out of Denver today revealed that there was a shouting match in the locker room post game between Aqib Talib and Russell Okung, illustrated a rift between the offense and defense. This is definitely not what you want to see from a team desperately trying to sneak into the playoffs. The Broncos will have to defeat Kansas City and Oakland in consecutive weeks to have a shot at defending the Lombardi Trophy.

Speaking of the Lombardi Trophy, one of the favorites to win it this season got back on track in impressive fashion last night. Dallas silenced some doubters last night with a 26-20 win over the red-hot Buccaneers. Dak Prescott may have finally put the Tony Romo whispers to bed with a truly remarkable performance. He completed 32 of 36 passes for 287 yards passing and rushed for one touchdown. Quite a way for the rookie to get back on track after his worst performance of the season against New York last week.

Now let’s get to tonight’s game between Carolina and Washington. Before the season this game looked great on paper. Flash forward a few months and this game has lost some of its luster. Washington is clinging to the final playoff spot in the NFC while Carolina is playing for pride at this point.

I think that Kirk Cousins comes out dealing against a battered Panthers defense, connecting with all of his various targets all night long. Washington has showed the ability to put up 30 points on just about anyone. The real question is what do Cam Newton and the Carolina offense do to try and keep up with Washington.

That is where Newton will run into former teammate Josh Norman, who has one hell of an axe to grind. Keep an eye on the former All-Pro on defense, as he will likely be mixing things up all night long. As for my pick in this one, I’m going with Washington (-7) to close out Week 15.

I’ll be back tomorrow with “No Huddle” to break down some playoff scenarios and reveal my latest power rankings. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Is it Thursday already? The week flies by this time of year. It’s time for another edition of “No Huddle” to get you ready for the week in the NFL. Week 15 may lack some of the primetime greatness that we saw last week, but is still important regardless. I’m pulling double-duty today with the blog so I’m going to try and roll through this one to get you ready in time for kickoff of tonight’s game plus I’ve done enough ranting for today in “Reality of Fantasy”. This week starts with an NFC West matchup between Los Angeles and Seattle.

It has been an interesting week for the Rams with the firing of head coach Jeff Fisher dominating the headlines in Los Angeles. At 4-9, it is another lost season for the Rams and the move towards the future is imminent. There are still games to play though, and Seattle might be one of the last team’s you want to face on a short week after getting rid of the head coach.

Turmoil and dysfunction are not the words you want to hear leading up to a tough road game. Now the Rams have had Seattle’s number of late, winning the last three games between these NFC West rivals. I think that trend is bucked tonight, and in a big way.

Seattle was embarrassed against Green Bay on Sunday and will have a ton to prove tonight. The Seahawks are in position to clinch the NFC West with a win or an Arizona loss. More importantly though, they need to win to try and get the #2 seed in the NFC back.

A first-round bye is paramount to playoff success. FS1’s Nick Wright was hosting The Herd last week and dropped a whale of a stat. Since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990, 18 of the 26 Super Bowl champions have had a first-round bye (by the way, Wright’s podcast with former NFL executive Michael Lombardi, Make Me Smarter Football Podcast is a must-listen).

This is a crucial game for the Seahawks, and their effort tonight should reflect that. As for the pick tonight, I believe the Seahawks get the job done. I hate picking huge favorites in the NFL, but I’ll take Seattle (-15) tonight in a must-win game.

Let’s turn our attention to Sunday where there are a couple of great games on the slate. The early block gives us a matchup of NFC playoff contenders with Detroit heading to East Rutherford, NJ to take on the Giants. I think that this is going to be a moderate game in terms of points, but should make for one hell of a matchup.

New York made a huge statement to the rest of the NFL last week by beating Dallas for the second time this season. This defense is for real, and is a unit that is dangerous as we head towards the postseason. I’m very excited to see this Lions offense try to get the upper-hand against the G-men. Matthew Stafford is a dark horse MVP candidate, regularly saving Detroit late in games. He already owns the NFL record for fourth-quarter comebacks in a season, so you can never count Detroit out of a ballgame.

An early game with a ton of bad blood, is that something you might be interested in? Pittsburgh and Cincinnati square off this week and I think we are all well aware of the mutual disdain these rivals have for one another. This one will be a hard-hitting affair with the Bengals trying to play spoiler to Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes.

It just so happens that the Steelers can get gritty if the occasion calls for it. Le’Veon Bell was a beast last week against Buffalo, totaling 298 yards from scrimmage (236 rushing) and three touchdowns. Behind the strength of Bell and the rest of the Killer B’s, Pittsburgh is readying for a playoff run. This should be a slugfest from the opening kickoff.

Moving onto the late afternoon block of games, one stands out from the rest. A rematch of last season’s AFC championship game between New England and Denver is the marquee game of the week. Tom Brady and the New England offense against Von Miller and the Denver defense is going to be one hell of a matchup.

Last time, Denver was able to pressure Brady at will so look for the Patriots offensive line to come ready for a battle. Brady just lit up the best defense in the NFL to the tune of 400+ yards and three touchdowns and has himself leading the MVP race and revenge games suit him nicely.

The stakes are pretty high in this one too, revenge game aside. New England holds the top seed in the AFC over Kansas City by one game, and will need to keep chugging along to secure home-field advantage. The Patriots can also clinch the AFC East with a win and a loss by Miami on Saturday night.

This is a virtual playoff game for Denver, who currently holds the last playoff spot by the slimmest of margins over Miami. Ten wins might not guarantee a berth in the playoffs, so the Broncos will need to pull off the upset to continue to control its destiny.

I’m very intrigued by the Sunday night game between Dallas and Tampa Bay. Yep, the Cowboys are back in primetime this week after the NFL flexed this game to SNF. Dallas has shown some flaws in recent weeks and is coming off a tough loss against the Giants. Dak Prescott has struggled these past two weeks, which has slowed down this previously unstoppable Dallas offense.

On the other side you have Tampa Bay, who are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. The Buccaneers have won five in a row, including wins against Kansas City and Seattle. Jameis Winston and Mike Evans might get all of the attention, but this defense has been incredible during this stretch. Prior to this run, this was a mediocre defense. During this run, Tampa Bay’s defense has been a top-ten unit.

This has the makings of a great game and could even be a potential playoff matchup in the Divisional round. I definitely think this game could steal the show this weekend.

Now it’s time for the fun part of my week, the picks against the spread. Week 14 was another good one for me as I went 10-6, giving me another winning week to add to my (hopefully) impressive record for the year. I’ve got the hot hand and I’m looking to keep the fire going this week. Here are my picks for the week (Winners in Bold).

Last Week: 10-6       2016 Season: 115-92-1

Saturday Night

Miami (-2.5) vs. NY Jets

 

Sunday

1:00 PM

Philadelphia vs. Baltimore (-5.5)

Green Bay (-5.5) vs. Chicago

Jacksonville vs. Houston (-5)

Cleveland (+10) vs. Buffalo

Tennessee (+5.5) vs. Kansas City

Detroit (+4) vs. NY Giants

Indianapolis vs. Minnesota (-4)

Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Cincinnati

 

4:05/4:25

New Orleans (+3) vs. Arizona

San Francisco vs. Atlanta (-13.5)

New England (-3) vs. Denver

Oakland (-3) vs. San Diego

 

Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay (+7) vs. Dallas

That’s it for me this week. I’ll be back on Monday to recap the weekend and get a fun holiday week going. Enjoy all of the action tonight and this weekend. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Fantasy football is a funny game. Even when you have the best roster or matchups, a stroke of luck is all it takes to flip the odds against you. I’m in a pretty competitive PPR keeper league with a group of my friends from my hometown and two years in a row I’ve come a stones throw away from a championship. Semi-final week is a sore subject for me in this league, and is most of the reason I was “Mr. Third Place” until this season.

Two years ago I entered Monday night losing by 38 points thanks to Jordan Matthews putting up a goose egg in the Sunday night game (he torched Dallas in the first game, don’t you just love fantasy football). I had Matt Forte and Drew Brees left while my opponent still had Mark Ingram to go. New Orleans led 24-8 late in the fourth quarter and I had taken a slim lead in the game. The Saints had the ball and just needed to run out the clock with a two-touchdown lead. Unfortunately for me, the Saints kept the pedal down and marched down the field on Chicago entering the redzone with under two minutes left.

Then, much to my chagrin, Mark Ingram scores on a 15-yard run, making my chance at a comeback victory all but impossible unless Forte returned the favor with a touchdown of his own. It wasn’t meant to be. The Bears picked apart the prevent defense with Alshon Jeffrey, sealing my fate for an eight-point loss and sending me to the third place game.

A pretty gut-wrenching way to lose, or so I thought. Then last season happened.

I was locked into a barnburner with the commissioner of this league. We entered Monday night in a virtual tie, and wouldn’t you know I was counting on New Orleans yet again. The commish had Matthew Stafford and Tim Hightower while I needed a big night out of Brandin Cooks.

The first half couldn’t have gone any worse for me. Stafford threw for three touchdowns, Hightower had been somewhat productive, and Brandin Cooks was virtually invisible with two catches for 33 yards. Cooks had a touchdown called back after a review, putting him down by contact at the one-yard line.

I couldn’t even watch it anymore. Eddie Lacy burned me yet again the day before, and my ace in the hole was nowhere to be found. The commish and I exchanged a few texts throughout the night and at this point in the night we both thought this game was done. I was with a couple of friends at my house and we had thrown a hockey game on TV and fired up the Xbox since the Monday night game was a blowout at the time.

A few games of NHL 16 later and my phone started getting flooded with updates from the game. Cooks came alive in the second half and had scored a touchdown to put me back in the game. Naturally I stopped what I was doing and threw the game back on.

I don’t think I will ever forget this fourth quarter. Cooks was unstoppable in the second half, hitting big play after big play. I had taken a slim lead and New Orleans was driving for another touchdown. Stafford had thrown for his fourth touchdown on the previous possession, which narrowed the gap to less than a point. The Saints were on the one-yard line at the two-minute warning.

Brees looks left and fired toward Cooks. The championship game was right in my sights… incomplete pass. Darius Slay made a diving play on the ball, knocking it just out of the grasp of Cooks. Benjamin Watson scored on the next play, and my lead remained at under a point with 1:55 left in the ball game, and Detroit just needs to run out the clock.

The Lions recover the onside kick just outside of field goal range. It’s going to happen, I was going to steal this game and head for the championship. Joique Bell breaks off a 36-yard run, and Stafford leads the victory formation to ice the game with a field goal since they decided not to run out the clock. Then things got crazy.

Matt Prater shanks a 38-yard field goal, the Saints are still in it, down eight with nine seconds left. My phone is getting flooded with texts from the other guys in the league congratulating me on a win by half of a point. I knew better, I kept telling everyone that this game wasn’t over and to save the congrats for a couple of minutes.

Brees throws incomplete to Watson on first down. One play separates me from the title game. A shiver runs down my spine when I see the personnel on the field. CJ Spiller, the “receiving” back, is on the sideline and Hightower is flanking Brees’s left side.

At this point I’m anxiously standing about a foot away from the TV. I couldn’t move, not now. Max Unger snaps the ball and the left side of the line bails out. No, it couldn’t be. THE SAINTS ARE TRYING TO TIE THE GAME WITH A 72-YARD SLIP SCREEN?! TO HIGHTOWER?!

This is really happening. Hightower’s catch puts the commish up by a half-point. Then he turns up field trying to score. 21 yards later, he just goes down. No attempt at a lateral, he just gives himself up. Game over.

Are you bleeping kidding me?!

I was despondent. Disbelief is a grand understatement to describe my feelings at the moment. My friends that had been texting me congratulatory message not two minute before were now sending me their sympathies. Then the commish chimes in with his two cents.

“Wow,” he messages to me. I still have the text somewhere in my phone.

That was it, I went from winning by half a point, to losing by two points in the final five seconds. Back to the third place game I went. Our championship party was like an Irish wake for me. For the record, I was the highest scoring playoff team during championship in both years.

I pass along my stories of horror as a reminder to you all that literally anything can happen when you are this deep in a quest for a championship. Fantasy football is a fickle game folks.

Now let’s get down to business. There are a few games that I like this week. On paper, New Orleans-Arizona is an inviting matchup but I’m done sticking my neck out for them this season. Target that game if you want at your own risk. Here are the matchups I like for Week 15, let’s get you to a title game!

Top Matchup: Atlanta (vs. San Francisco)

There is a lot to like here. Atlanta is one of the most explosive offenses in the league, even without Julio Jones apparently. Taylor Gabriel is a sneaky play that could vault you to the championship round, he has been a big play waiting to happen every time he has touched the ball in the last month.

Now let’s breakdown some numbers. San Francisco is 14^th against the pass, and last in the league against the running game. The 49ers also allow the most points in the league. Inviting? San Francisco’s defense opens the door, sits you down, and serves up fantasy points on a silver platter. The potential for the Falcons in fantasy this week is a potential gold rush.

2^nd Best Matchup: Oakland vs. San Diego

You have to love a matchup of high-powered offenses this late in the season. Oakland has ten days to prepare for this game after getting handled again by Kansas City. They have a lot to play for in this game, and returning to the West Coast could be just what the doctor ordered. Derek Carr likely burned many of you last week, but keep the faith with him and this offense. A bounce-back performance is in the cards here.

San Diego may have lost Melvin Gordon last week, which leaves the run game lacking, but Philip Rivers can still move the ball. Dontrelle Inman, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Gates, and Hunter Henry still give Rivers plenty of options in the passing game. The Chargers did struggle last week on the road against Carolina, but some home cooking could get them back in the groove, especially against a flimsy Oakland defense.

I do like Oakland more than San Diego for fantasy purposes, but there are some fine options on both teams in this game.

3^rd Best Matchup: Green Bay (vs. Chicago)

 Momentum for the Packers couldn’t be any better right now. This offense is rolling on all cylinders, which is fan-freaking-tastic for fantasy owners. Chicago may be a tougher defense than we give them credit for, but with the way Aaron Rodgers has the offense going, you can’t bet against him. Don’t get scared off by a tough divisional rival here. The Pack is back. Jordy Nelson is a must-start, and Davante Adams has emerged has a reliable target for this offense. Randall Cobb is a wild card. He looks like he has taken a back seat to Adams, but Cobb was great in the first game against the Bears (11 catches, 96 yards, and one touchdown). Fire up your Green Bay Packers on Sunday.

*A sneaky matchup is Washington on Monday night. Just a feeling, but in a must-win game in primetime, Kirk Cousins could come out dealing in this one.

Good luck to all of you this week. I wish you all success in your semi-final matchups. I’m working on “No Huddle” right now, and will be up a little later on today. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

The long awaited return of “Heat Check” is finally here. I’ve been trying to catch up on the NBA the last few days, didn’t want to write this and not know my stuff so I apologize for the delay. We are just past the quarter-pole of the regular season and there has been some interesting situations brewing so far in the NBA.

Golden State and Cleveland are holding down the top spots in their respective conferences, so no surprises there. Russell Westbrook is putting up video-game numbers for Oklahoma City. A few teams are already in “tank” mode, and shockingly none of those teams reside in Philadelphia. The 2016-17 season is off to a rousing start, so today I’m going to go through my individual award picks through the first quarter of the season. I’ll also give my surprise team and disappointing team so far this season as well.

MVP: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

This one should come as no surprise here. Westbrook has been playing like a man possessed all year. His stats are just absurd so far. He is averaging a triple-double on the season, and is just an offensive machine right now. Westbrook’s 12 triple-doubles are by far the most in the NBA this season. Despite the incredibly high volume that Westbrook operates with on a nightly basis, he is second in the NBA in the PER (player efficiency rating) advanced metric among qualified players.

The only thing that could keep him from winning his first MVP at season’s end is where Oklahoma City ends up in the standings. OKC is currently sixth in the Western Conference, and will need to make the playoffs in order for Westbrook to be in the discussion.

There is precedent though for the MVP coming from a non-playoff team but that hasn’t been done since the 1975-76 season where Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won the award where his team missed the playoffs. There were only 18 teams in the NBA back then though.

Rookie of the Year: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

 This one is a no-brainer for me. Embiid has been a force for Philadelphia this season. There is no rookie that is more valuable to his team this season than Embiid is for the Sixers. He’s averaging 18.7 points per game, and 7.6 rebounds per game. Embiid leads all rookies in double-doubles, and that is despite playing with a minute restriction and being held out of one game of any back-to-backs for Philadelphia. That will have to change by season’s end and health is obviously a primary concern for the man known as “The Process.” He is getting stiff competition from his teammate Dario Saric, which could turn into a nice little race for the ROY. Everything in Philly will change whenever Ben Simmons steps onto the court though so we’ll need to keep a watchful eye on this young 76ers team.

Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

Who would have thought that the offensive juggernaut Warriors would have a player in the DPOY race? Draymond Green is making quite a case for the award though. He is currently averaging 2.4 steals per game and 1.4 blocks per game for a player that spends most of his time playing center for Golden State. That’s pretty impressive for a guy that usually ends up with a size-disadvantage at his position.

Another interesting stat for Green’s DPOY case, he has a -4.6 rating for shooting percentage differential (increase/decrease of shooting percentage of opposing player), which is only rivaled by Knicks center Kristaps Porzingis who has a -4.8 rating. Now, I still think that Kawhi Leonard is going to make a strong push to win this award for the third consecutive season, but right now Green is the guy leading the way for DPOY.

Coach of the Year: Mike D’Antoni, Houston Rockets

You read that one right folks, Mike D’Antoni has this Rockets team right back where they were two seasons ago. He has completely changed the fortunes of Houston after a lost season a year ago. The Rockets are 18-7 in a tough Western Conference, which is currently good for the fourth in the current standings. Houston is also riding a seven-game winning streak.

My concern for the rest of the season is that the Rockets are in the bottom third in the league in points allowed per game. That is something that could eventually catch up to them by season’s end. However, I think we are seeing a much better overall product from the Rockets and we have to give credit where credit is due.

Disappointing Team So Far: Boston Celtics (13-11, 5^th in the East)

This is a team everyone was pegging for a 60-win season a couple of months ago. Boston added All-Star power forward Al Horford to the mix, but whiffed in the Kevin Durant sweepstakes. On the court, something looks off about this team. Much has been made about the effect of free-agent departure of Evan Turner to the chemistry of this team. Truthfully, the stat the worries me the most about the Celtics is the team ranking 25^th in the NBA in rebounds. That is a porous stat for a team with high expectations come playoff time.

Boston currently ranks in the middle of the NBA in points per game and points allowed (14^th and 13^th respectively). There is nothing that this team can really hang its hat on right now and that is not a good sign. Isaiah Thomas has been the bright spot for this struggling team but he is currently dealing with a groin injury.

Better days should be ahead for the Celtics, especially playing in the weaker Eastern Conference. Coach Brad Stevens likes the way his team is playing right now despite having lost three out of the last four. This team needs to gel quickly though to make up ground in the East.

Surprise Team So Far: Utah Jazz (15-10, 7^th in the West)

This was a tough one for me to pick because it is still pretty early in the season, and things don’t really pick up until the All-Star break. Now you may be saying to yourself, why is a 15-10 team a surprise? Despite injuries to George Hill and Derrick Favors, the Utah is 8-2 in its last ten games. The real surprise comes when you delve into the numbers.

Utah is nothing special on the offensive end of the floor and on the glass (24^th in PPG, 28^th in assists, and 22^nd in rebounds). The Jazz makes its mark on the defensive end, where it ranks as the top team in the NBA in points allowed (95.5 per game) and fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In an offensively dominated league, a team that can grind out games is going to be a tough out on a nighty basis.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Reality of Fantasy” and “No Huddle” to get you ready for Week 15 of the NFL. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.