No Huddle: Will an Atlanta Super Bowl Hangover Open the Door for Tampa Bay and Carolina? (NFC South Preview)

Well it has been an interesting twelve hours in the NFL. Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott had his suspension upheld by the arbitrator Harold Henderson. However, since the decision was not made until last night, Elliott is eligible to play this weekend against the Giants. The six-game suspension will likely start next week. I say likely because of the NFLPA’s filing of an injunction to prevent the suspension so that Elliott’s legal team could fight the suspension further. This situation looks like it is far from over folks.

In other news, due to Hurricane Irma barreling towards the Miami area, the NFL decided to postpone the Miami-Tampa Bay game until Week 11. This now means both teams will have their bye week now, and play 16 consecutive games. It is tough to say what the “right” call would have been in this difficult situation, but now each team will have to deal with the decision. Obviously, I send my best wishes to those that will be affected by Irma this weekend.

Now let’s get down to business, I have three more divisions to preview over the next two days. This column will be a look at the NFC South, and I will have my preview of the NFC East up a little later today. Tomorrow will feature another double dose of NFL coverage with my AFC West preview followed by my predictions for the season and my breakdown of the New England-Kansas City regular season opener.

So let’s talk about the NFC South, which could be my favorite division race of the season. The big question with this division is whether or not we will see a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance from a NFC South team? Atlanta returns with all of their key players in tact, and a few improvements on defense. Tampa Bay has been getting a lot of love for their offseason moves and could be a team on the rise. Carolina is healthy but we still don’t know a lot of how some of the new parts will mesh together. Then there is New Orleans who could be stuck in neutral but still have Drew Brees running the show, which always gives them a fighting chance.

2017 should provide plenty of fireworks, so let’s jump right into the mix in your first installment of “No Huddle.”

Atlanta Falcons (last season 11-5)

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Putting the Super Bowl LI loss behind them will be the key to a return to the postseason for the Falcons in 2017. Photo Credit: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

We all saw the collapse. We’ve all enjoyed the countless memes, jokes, etc. The Falcons have to put their heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl behind them. Fortunately, this team enters 2017 primed to put last season in the rearview mirror. While they might be the preseason favorites to win this division, they will have to battle history and improved competition to repeat in the NFC South.

While the Falcons have the same offensive unit this season, the question is how this offense will look without former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Atlanta put up video game numbers on offense last season, and with all the key components back this season you would expect this unit to still be dangerous.

Reigning MVP Matt Ryan looks poised to recapture the magic of last season. Julio Jones is still Julio Jones. I think the biggest thing to watch here is Devonta Freeman, who is now the league’s highest paid running back. Freeman is the perfect complement to the passing game with his elusiveness, and is fully capable of doing damage himself out of the backfield. It will be very interesting to see how new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian uses all of the pieces at his disposal. Sarkisian has been given the keys to a Ferrari, so to speak.

Everyone knows about the Atlanta offense, but it was the defense that really turned some heads down the stretch last season. Head coach Dan Quinn is clearly trying to emulate the Legion of Boom formula and the contributions from his young players were very encouraging. This is a unit that finished second in the league in net yards allowed per game and two key additions could really elevate this defense in 2017.

Atlanta signed defensive tackle Dontari Poe in the offseason to anchor the interior of the defensive line. Then the Falcons drafted edge-rusher Takarrist McKinley to play opposite Vic Beasley. The back seven (linebackers/secondary) played extremely fast, and now with an improved defensive line the feeling here is that this defense can compensate for any potential drop-off from the offense.

Now will there be a Super Bowl hangover? Unfortunately, history points to that being a likely scenario, but the pieces are in place for Atlanta to buck this trend. They are in the driver’s seat to win this division and a playoff berth is definitely in the cards at the very least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (last season: 9-7)

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The path to the postseason in Tampa Bay rests on the shoulders of Jameis Winston. Photo Credit: Getty Images

No team in the league, aside from New England, is coming into the season with more hype than Tampa Bay. As the subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks we got an in-depth look at the Bucs as they prepared for a pivotal season. Key additions could be the catalyst in turning a team that was on the outside looking in last season to a dark horse to win the NFC.

We’ll start on the offensive side of the ball where quarterback Jameis Winston has to be happy with the improvements made on this side of the ball. A multitude of injuries reduced this offense to Winston, Mike Evans, and occasionally Cameron Brate. Guess what? They were still pretty good at times. This offense has the makings of a complete and dangerous unit in 2017.

Football isn’t a one-man game, but one player can change your fortunes. DeSean Jackson joining the Bucs could be a major catalyst in the progression of this offense. Jackson is still a very productive receiver and has the ability to take the top off of opposing defenses, something this offense has sorely needed. More importantly, Jackson will prevent defenses from focusing solely on Evans.

To complete this offense, they will need a running game. They will start the year with Jaquizz Rodgers in the lead role until Doug Martin serves the final three games of his suspension. After that the sky could be the limit here because Martin looked incredible this preseason and showed flashes of his 2015 form.

While the sky could be the limit, this offense will only go as far as Winston can take them. The biggest concern for Winston is the turnovers. Winston has a tendency to get greedy and force balls into some really bad spots, especially near the goal line. If he can produce a stat line that resembles 30+ touchdowns and about 10 interceptions, Tampa Bay will be very good shape.

You might not have realized this, but Tampa Bay’s defense was actually really good at times last season. During a stretch of games from Weeks 10-14, the Bucs defense averaged 12.8 points allowed. That is the ceiling for this defense, but sustaining that type of dominance is easier said than done.

The defensive core is solid with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy leading the way with linebackers Levonte David and Kwon Alexander behind him. If there was one spot where this defense was vulnerable though, you have to look at the secondary. However, a recent addition could provide a huge boost at the back end of this defense.

Three-time Pro Bowl safety T.J. Ward was one of the shocking cuts last weekend, but he quickly made his way to Tampa Bay to join the Bucs. He will add a serious edge to this secondary. He might not be quite the star he was in Denver, but is still a much-needed upgrade for this defense.

Most experts might have been a year early on the Bucs last season, but there is some serious potential this year. The NFC wild card is chock-full of really good teams, but the Bucs could end up being the best of the bunch. I really think that Tampa Bay takes the leap into the postseason and will be a serious challenger for the NFC South crown.

New Orleans Saints (last season: 7-9)

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Figuring out how to use Adrian Peterson will be a major factor if the Saints hope to break a three-year run of 7-9 finishes. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

It has been the same story for the Saints for the past three seasons. A great offense led by Drew Brees is held back by an anemic defense and the Saints woefully finish 7-9. While you would think that the Saints would learn from their recent history, but it seems that isn’t the case. In fact New Orleans might have doubled down on their current formula.

Brees is still at the helm, which gives them an advantage over most teams they will face. However, he enters this season without two of his top receivers from last year. Brandin Cooks was traded to New England, and Willie Snead is serving a three-game suspension for a DUI arrest in the offseason. Michael Thomas will be relied upon to repeat his stellar rookie season from a year ago, and free agent signing Ted Ginn has a big role to fill with Cooks gone. Tight end Coby Fleener will have an expanded role as well, but will have to be a lot better than he was last season.

The big splash for the Saints in the offseason was the signing of running back Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately, we don’t know what that will mean for this offense just yet. Mark Ingram is still the “lead” back and finding a balance between both backs is a key factor to watch. If healthy, Peterson could be this season’s Legarrette Blount. Health aside, the real issue could be scheme fit as the Saints are primarily a shotgun offense a formation Peterson has rarely run out of in the NFL. Add to the mix rookie Alvin Kamara (seen as a Darren Sproles-type back), and there is a ton of uncertainty in this backfield.

It’s tough to imagine the Saints defense showing marked improvement on the defensive side of the football. Nothing they have seemed to do to improve this defense has worked over the past few years. They added Manti Te’o to bolster the linebackers, but it could be one step forward and two steps back. Nick Fairley suffered a potentially career-ending injury and first-round pick Delvin Breaux is currently injured. This defense looked good in the preseason, but let’s temper our expectations.

All signs are pointing to the Saints recent history to continue. Another 7-9 finish is likely despite the moves that New Orleans made in the offseason. Which begs to question what the future holds in the bayou?

Carolina Panthers (last season: 6-10)

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Can rookie Christian McCaffrey give the Panthers a boost back into the postseason? Photo Credit: Getty Images

Why should the Falcons be worried about a Super Bowl hangover? Just look at the Panthers in 2016. Roster turnover, poor play, and injuries effectively rendered last season a lost year for the Panthers. There is renewed hope that Carolina will return to playoff form in 2017 though.

Cam Newton underwent offseason shoulder surgery, which means we haven’t seen much of him in the preseason (one appearance and threw two passes). However, reports indicate that the former MVP is good to go this season. Newton lost his deep threat Ted Ginn in the offseason, but they drafted a player that could add a completely new dimension to this ground-and-pound offense.

Rookie Christian McCaffrey might be the key to unlocking the hidden potential of this offense. “CMC” looks like the perfect complement to what this offense has typically looked to do during the Newton-era. McCaffrey has the ability to run in-between the tackles but his real talent is his versatility. He can run the ball on first down, catch a ball out of the backfield on second down, line up in the slot on third down, and return the punt to start your next drive. This rookie has wowed in the preseason, and the hype has only intensified with yesterdays report that he will be a vital part of this offense with “his own playbook.”

We’ll have to see how this defense rebounds from a dismal 2016. Carolina really felt the loss of Josh Norman as this secondary was torched time and time again (see Julio Jones’ 300 yard game). Just when it looked like this secondary was getting its game together, this defense suffered its most devastating loss. Luke Kuechly suffered a scary concussion in Week 11 against the Saints and missed the rest of the season, raising many concerns about his future.

When healthy, this is a defense that is poised to jump back into the top-ten defenses in the league. However, if they are to lose Kuechly again it will be tough to see this defense reach that potential.

Carolina will certainly be a tough team this season, and will be in contention for a playoff spot. This offense could be really fun to watch and a nightmare to gameplan against. It’s the defense seemingly hanging on by a thread that has me worried about their playoff hopes in a deep NFC.

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for my NFC East preview which will be up tonight. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney, subscribe to Shooting the Moon on WordPress, and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

No Huddle: Pittsburgh is Pushing for a Super Bowl, but Could Baltimore Play Spoiler? (AFC North Preview)

Here we go everyone. In just one week, the NFL regular season will kick off with a playoff-worthy matchup between the defending champion New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs. Teams will be trimming their rosters down to 53 players on Saturday as well. Anticipation for the upcoming season is at a fever pitch around the sporting world. If you can’t wait for some meaningful football though, we get a taste of that this weekend as college football gives us a colossal opening weekend. Can you tell I’m excited?

We’ll talk about the big weekend in college football tomorrow, but for today we have another NFL division to preview. Next on the schedule is the AFC North. Last season Pittsburgh ran away with this division and made a deep playoff run before losing to the eventual champion Patriots. While the Steelers enter this season as the odd-on favorite to repeat as division champions, the rest of the division isn’t willing to make that easy for them. Let’s take a look at the AFC North in today’s “No Huddle.”

Pittsburgh Steelers (last season: 11-5)

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Big Ben is looking for one more title before he retires, and Pittsburgh may have the team to pull it off. Photo Credit: Getty Images

For a brief moment this offseason, it looked like Ben Roethlisberger would be hanging up his cleats and heading into retirement. Then superstar running back Le’Veon Bell began a holdout after he couldn’t get the lucrative, long-term contract that he was looking for instead of the holdover deal from the franchise tag. For a team that is one of the Super Bowl contenders this season, there was a decent amount of uncertainty.

Most of that uncertainty was short-lived as Roethlisberger announced he would be back for at least the 2017 season, and Bell would end his holdout on September 1st. Pair those announcements with the reinstatement of wideout Martavis Bryant, and Pittsburgh’s Killer B’s will all be on the field together for the first time in almost two years. This means Pittsburgh’s offense can be penciled in as a top-five unit heading into this season.

Health is always a major concern for this team though. My biggest worry is with Bell in regards to his holdout. No training camp, and only ten days to work with the team before the opener has me concerned that Bell is heading towards an injury early this season. De’Angelo Williams is no longer with the team, but Pittsburgh did draft James Connor, who could be a solid replacement should Bell go down.

The Steelers also began to prepare for the eventual retirement of Roethlisberger by selecting former Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs in the draft. Dobbs has looked promising in limited preseason action, but still has a ways to go before he can take the reigns. Big Ben tends to take a beating over the course of the season so we may get a quick look at Dobbs before the season is over.

There wasn’t a lot to talk about with Pittsburgh’s defense until yesterday. Cleveland cut ties with cornerback Joe Haden after failing to trade the two-time Pro Bowler. It would only be a matter of hours before Haden inked a three-year deal with the Steelers. This acquisition is a major coup for Pittsburgh as they finally get the shutdown corner this defense has needed for the past decade.

Haden joins a defense that has a ton of upside this season. Linebackers Ryan Shazier and Bud Dupree are both on the fringe of becoming Pro Bowl caliber players. This unit may not be the best in the league, but they could certainly be a difference maker for the Steelers as they chase another Super Bowl ring.

If healthy, the Steelers shouldn’t have a problem winning this division and will be one of the biggest threats to New England in the AFC. This offense is potent and this defense should surprise people this season. A few concerns aside, there is a lot to like about this team at the outset of the season.

Baltimore Ravens (last season: 8-8)

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Defense will be the name of the game in Baltimore, with a unit that could rank in the top-three in 2017. Photo Credit: Baltimore Ravens

Admittedly, this Baltimore team has been impossible to get a read on this preseason. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been out with a back injury, which has prevented us from really seeing what this new-look Ravens offense will look like. Luckily the Ravens defense doesn’t have anyone going into panic mode just yet, we’ll get to them in just a second.

While it looks like Flacco will be ready for Week 1, he’ll have to quickly get together with a new cast of players around him. Running back Terrance West and receiver Mike Wallace are the only to holdovers from last year’s offense. Baltimore added receiver Jeremy Maclin and running back Danny Woodhead to the mix creating an intriguing veteran core for this offense. Over 300+ targets were vacated from last year’s team so it will be interesting to see how each of these four get worked into the gameplan.

Now onto the real story of the 2017 Baltimore Ravens and that is this defense. Last season the Ravens finished seventh in total defense and fifth against the run. It’s scary to think that this defense has the chance to get even better this season. Baltimore brought in cornerback Brandon Carr and safety Tony Jefferson to bolster this unit. Personally, the safety tandem of Jefferson and Eric Weddle could be among the best in the NFL. Jefferson made his name as a safety/linebacker hybrid in Arizona and is a tailor-made fit to play alongside the ball-hawking Weddle.

With an improved secondary on paper, the pressure is on the front-seven to raise their game. Despite being the fifth-best run defense, the Ravens had problems rushing opposing quarterbacks. Baltimore finished tied for 24th in the NFL with 31 sacks last season. Bringing that number up will have the Ravens in a position to be a top-three defense at the end of the season. It’s a little early for people to compare this defense to the 2000 Ravens (but they are), but there is a lot to like here.

Overall, you have to be cautiously optimistic about the Ravens this season. While the jury is still out on this offense, it will be the defense that will ultimately lead the way in 2017. Baltimore just a shade behind Pittsburgh in the division race, but this is a team that should be able to compete for a playoff berth.

Cincinnati Bengals (last season: 6-9-1)

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The pressure is on Andy Dalton to carry the Bengals in 2017. Photo Credit: UPI

2016 was another season that was seemingly killed by a major injury for the Bengals. AJ Green’s severe hamstring injury essentially knocked Cincinnati out of playoff contention. Without their superstar receiver, this offense lacked any sort of explosion and they limped to the finish last year.

A new year brings a renewed optimism though. The Bengals will have recapture the magic of the 2015 season where they finished 12-4 despite a late-season injury to Andy Dalton. While they lost much of the supporting cast from that offense (and former OC Hue Jackson, now Cleveland’s head coach), Cincinnati has slowly rebuilt this offense around Dalton and Green.

Young and unproven is the best way to describe the new nucleus of this offense. Tyler Boyd never really made an impact, but we are all waiting to see what rookies Joe Mixon and John Ross will add to this unit. All three will have to become reliable options for the Bengals to get back to the postseason.

The real story has surrounded Mixon, who looks poised to be one of the NFL’s breakout players this season. He will join a running back group that includes the bruising Jeremy Hill (currently dealing with an ankle injury) and versatile Giovani Bernard (who is coming back from an ACL injury). Mixon is a mix between these two and looks to have the starting job in hand for the time being.

In the passing game, we all know that Green is the main attraction here but who emerges as the second and third options will be important. Tight end Tyler Eifert is logically the guy who would be the second option, but injuries have hampered him the past few seasons. When healthy he is a deadly red-zone threat. Veteran wideout Brandon LaFell will have a role opposite Green, but more attention will be on whether Boyd or Ross can make an impact in the slot. Ross has a ton of upside and could potentially be used like Taylor Gabriel or Tyreek Hill.

On the defensive side of the ball, there isn’t a whole lot to talk about. It is a tough unit that can be stingy but often times are magnets for penalty flags. They will already be without linebacker Vontaze Burflict for the first three games of the season due to a suspension. The loss of Burflict is huge as he is the anchor of this defense, although this unit has not looked great with him either. Unfortunately, this could be a unit that regresses in 2017.

This is setting up for a topsy-turvy season in Cincinnati. The Bengals will be a competitive team every week, but it is hard to get excited about their prospects for the postseason. Short of Dalton playing like the MVP, this offense might not be able to carry this defense if it falters.

Cleveland Browns (last season: 1-15)

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Cleveland’s “Moneyball” rebuild brought in a ton of talent, but do they finally have a franchise quarterback in rookie DeShone Kizer? Photo Credit: Cleveland.com

Last season, the Browns came very close to making history for all the wrong reasons. Cleveland started 0-14 and looked like a shoo-in to match the 0-16 record of the 2008 Lions, worst-ever for an NFL team. Thankfully the Browns were able to avoid the big ol’ goose egg in the win column by “upsetting” the Chargers in Week 16. On the surface, a 1-15 finish looks pretty awful but this was a much more competitive team than their record would suggest. However, this is still a team in search of direction.

The endless search for a franchise quarterback is the first hurdle to finding that direction. This season the Browns will turn to rookie DeShone Kizer as the starting quarterback in 2017. Kizer turned heads in the football community when he announced he would leave Notre Dame early to enter the NFL draft. He has a ton of talent, but is a pretty raw prospect. Coach Hue Jackson is a hell of an offensive coach and will have to do a lot of work to get Kizer ready for the big time.

Look for the Browns to rely on the running game to take the pressure off their rookie quarterback. Running back Isaiah Crowell looked early last season, but his numbers faded when the wheels really fell off for the Browns. Crowell can undoubtedly be the bell-cow back and Duke Johnson is a fine change-of-pace back. Plus, this offensive line looks solid on paper this season. The problem is that the Browns played from behind way too much for these backs to really control games.

This means that Kizer will be forced to throw the ball a lot at times. Cleveland signed receiver Kenny Britt in free agency to pair him with second-year wideout Corey Coleman. Britt was surprisingly effective for the Rams last season while Coleman looked great before a broken hand ruined solid rookie season. We’ll also have to wait and see if rookie tight end David Njoku can make an impact this season. The tight end position battle is wide open at the moment.

Cleveland made a clear declaration on draft night. They were going to build through the draft and spent two first round picks on potential game-changing defenders. Defensive end Myles Garrett is the tone setter for the future of this organization. He will be relied upon to pick the up the NFL game quickly and become the game-breaker that NFL scouts believe that he could be.

The other first round pick on this defense is safety Jabrill Peppers, who you will see all over the place for the Browns. Peppers is a safety in name only right now. By the end of the season he could play at safety, cornerback, nickelback, kick returner, punt returner with the occasional stint at wide receiver, and running back. Aside from an off-field issue, the reason Peppers fell so far in the draft was because it was difficult to project just how he would translate to the college game despite being one of the most athletic prospects. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams will have to figure out where his best fit will be in the NFL.

It is looking like another long season for the Browns, but with a ton of young players 2017 is all about progression. Cleveland has been stuck at square one for the better part of a decade so baby steps will be important this season. No longer being a doormat or a punching bag will be the goal for Cleveland.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with a preview of the weekend in college football. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney, subscribe to Shooting the Moon on WordPress, and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

No Huddle: Green Bay, Detroit, and Minnesota Find Themselves in Three-Way Standoff (NFC North Preview)

Sometimes you have to love when a plan works out. Today we will be looking at the NFC North and there just happens to be some big news regarding two of the teams within the division. We’ll get to that in just a bit but let’s do a quick recap of last season in the division.

2016 saw a hotly contested race for the division crown in the NFC North. A Week 17 Sunday night showdown between the Packers and Lions would determine who would take the division and host a Wild Card game. Green Bay ended up finding another gear in the postseason before running into a buzz saw in the form of the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship game. Meanwhile, Detroit was unceremoniously eliminated in the Wild Card round.

A new year presents a potentially three-way dance for supremacy in the NFC North. Green Bay and Detroit are poised for another duel but it could be the Minnesota Vikings who have the last laugh. The six games between these three teams are worth circling on your calendars right now. Who will end up as the kings in the North? Let’s look at the tale of the tape in today’s “No Huddle.”

Green Bay Packers (last season: 10-6)

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The magical play of Aaron Rodgers has the Packers in a position to contend for a Super Bowl again in 2017, tell me if you heard that before. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

We all know the story in Green Bay. As long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, the Packers will always be a contender. Last season Rodgers produced one of the best statistical stretches ever by a quarterback to vault the Packers just one game shy of the Super Bowl. It took an MVP-type effort from Rodgers to alleviate a laundry list of injuries in the backfield.

Since we all know what this passing attack will be with all of the key cogs healthy, it’s the backfield that raises the questions for Green Bay heading into 2017. Due to all of the injuries a year ago, Green Bay was forced to convert receiver Ty Montgomery into a running back.

While it could have been a temporary solution, it seems as if the Packers are committed to Montgomery as the lead back at the outset of the season. Montgomery did flash some potential as a runner, but really showed his value as a versatile threat in the passing game. However, if Montgomery continues to have problems in pass protection like he did last season, one of the rookies could see the field sooner rather than later. Reports indicate that Jamaal Williams will get the first crack as the backup to Montgomery.

Over on the defensive side of the football, the Packers have to embrace a bend but don’t break style of football. With the offense as proficient as it is, the Packers defense really just needs to string together a few stops per game to win ball games. The health of Clay Matthews and Nick Perry will be a huge factor for Green Bay. If both players can stay on the field, this defense will have a chance to keep the Packers on their winning ways.

Potentially the biggest concern for the Packers has nothing to do with the players on the field, but with coach Mike McCarthy. Over the years, the Packers have had some issues with letting teams hang around when they get ahead. McCarthy has gained a reputation for taking the foot off the gas pedal, which has hurt the Packers in some regard. A killer instinct in the gameplan could be the difference for Green Bay being a Super Bowl contender or falling short once again in the postseason. The NFC North is theirs to lose, but with Rodgers at the helm a Super Bowl victory is always the ultimate goal.

Detroit Lions (last season: 9-7)

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Detroit’s $135 million man Matthew Stafford needs to play like the MVP if the Lions don’t want to limp to the finish like last season. Photo Credit: Associated Press

Last season was a tough finish for the Lions. After an 8-2 run through October and November, Detroit lost their final three regular season games and blew a chance to win the division. While Detroit clinched a playoff berth, a Super Bowl run was far from being in the cards.

Similar to the Packers, there really hasn’t been a lot of change heading into the 2017 season. Detroit has essentially doubled down on their current roster. The biggest indication came yesterday as the team agreed to a record-setting contract extension with quarterback Matthew Stafford. Now the highest-paid player in the NFL, Stafford will be under a ton of pressure to perform.

This offense has a ton of potential around Stafford, and should be the foundation the Lions. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones each had great stretches of games, but finding a balance between the two was a problem. One would be a focal point while the other kind of faded into the background. So far it looks like offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter might have the formula to prevent that being an issue again. Tight end Eric Ebron could be a vital target in the red-zone but is already dealing with a hamstring injury. Luckily the Lions may have found a solution to Ebron’s continued injury problems in rookie receiver Kenny Golloday, who flashed a dominant skill-set for the red-zone in training camp (potential fantasy sleeper).

Detroit’s running backs will another key part of this offense. Theo Riddick clearly has a role as a third down and receiving back. The Lions will turn to Ameer Abdullah in order to have some form of balance for this offense. Abdullah has flashed some big playmaking ability, but injuries have hampered his progress since his rookie season. A sustained ground attack will be a much-needed dimension for this offense.

Why does this offense need to be efficient and effective? Detroit’s defense was atrocious last season, specifically against the pass. You would think that improving this area would have been a priority this offseason, but that was not the case. The only notable improvements were made along the defensive line. However, that doesn’t solve this problem if that pass rush doesn’t improve on the 26 sacks from a year ago.

The bend, but don’t break philosophy only works when you can do that with consistency. Detroit was content to let teams hit underneath passes, but often times were burned by big plays. Unfortunately, this formula isn’t adding up to any form of success on defense.

Despite having a potentially great offense, a sub-par defense could prevent this team from reaching the postseason for a second consecutive season. The Lions were able to eek out wins by less than a touchdown frequently last year. Unfortunately, that is not a trend that carries over year-to-year. Don’t be shocked if that trend ends up working against the Lions in 2017.

Minnesota Vikings (last season: 8-8)

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With a potentially dominant defense, the Vikings will need to avoid the injury bug to remain a contender in the NFC. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

It’s tough to say that a team that finished 8-8 essentially had a lost season. Unfortunately, Minnesota’s upward trajectory under coach Mike Zimmer hit a major roadblock in 2016. Numerous injuries on both sides of the football prevented the Vikings from taking the next step towards becoming a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

A better way to figure out just how bad things got last season is to go through the list of players who weren’t injured, especially on offense. Teddy Bridgewater’s freak knee injury forced the Vikings to make a last minute trade for Sam Bradford, who will once again lead this offense. Adrian Peterson is no longer the focal point of this offense as he left for New Orleans in free agency. While that seems like a big loss, it actually might free this offense help them find a more suitable identity.

Drafting running back Dalvin Cook may be the first step in figuring that out. Despite falling to the second round, Cook was a first-round talent who flashing homerun ability at Florida State. He has taken the reigns as the top running back, leaving free agent addition Latavius Murray in a short yardage role. Both will face the pressure of improving this rushing attack, which struggled mightily last season.

If Cook and Murray are able to get the ground game going, that will allow Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph to thrive in the passing game. The other factor will be the offensive line, which was hampered by injuries and poor play by the backups. Sustained play in the trenches will be the most important factor for this offense.

Minnesota getting any kind of offensive production will be music to this team’s ears because their defense is ferocious. The Vikings quietly put together a young core of players that have this unit in a position to be the best defense in the NFL for the next five years. They can rush the passer, stop the run, and create havoc for opposing offenses. This defense isn’t quite the “Purple People Eaters” just yet, but they are very close. Don’t be surprised if Minnesota’s road to the postseason is paved by a top-three defense.

If there is one team that can make the jump back into the postseason in the NFC, the Vikings are at the top of the list. Health is a major concern given the problems of last season and depth is still a bit of an issue. However, given the talent on this team a Week 16 matchup against the Packers in Lambeau Field will likely determine the outcome of this division.

Chicago Bears (last season: 3-13)

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Patience and the development of rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky should be paramount in year one of the Chicago rebuild. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

To put it quite simply, the Bears are in a pretty bad spot heading into 2017. Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffrey are no longer on the team, so this roster is now in a full rebuilding stage. It will be hard to see this team vastly improving on its 3-13 record from a year ago.

Prior to the third preseason game, we were keenly watching the quarterback battle in Chicago. Mike Glennon signed a big contract to be the starter, and then the Bears moved up to the second spot in the draft to take UNC quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The plan seemed to be that Glennon would be locked in as the starter this season with Trubisky getting a “redshirt” rookie season as the backup. However, the rookie has played well and Glennon looks less than impressive.

However, the devastating knee injury suffered by Cameron Meredith over the weekend should be a sign that coach John Fox needs to stay true to the original plan. Right now, there is no point throwing Trubisky into the fire with a shorthanded offense. This receiving core is in shambles right now after losing their top target for this season (and potentially part of next year). Kevin White and Kendall Wright will have to step up in a big way to get this offense going this year.

Running back Jordan Howard needs to be the focal part of this offense after finishing last season with the second-most rushing yards in the league. Unfortunately, its tough to get expect similar results this season with a depleted passing attack. We’re going to learn a lot about Howard in 2017. If he can find similar success, the Bears could have a superstar to build around.

The bright spot this preseason has been the defense, which looked strong through the first three exhibition games. A stingy defense will certainly go a long way to masking some of the potential problems of this offense. The real test for this defense will come right away with a Week 1 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Ultimately, this team probably won’t be a pushover but are teetering very close to the edge of a totally lost season.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the AFC North. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney, subscribe to Shooting the Moon on WordPress, and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

No Huddle: A Slugfest is Brewing Between Houston and Tennessee (AFC South Preview)

Happy Monday everyone! I hope you all enjoyed the weekend as we all try to get the last little bit of summer in before the fall begins. To be perfectly honest, I’m still catching my breath from last night’s Game of Thrones finale. While I was going to write a little bit about the Mayweather/McGregor fight from Saturday, I think the collective sports outlets covered just about every angle. So we’ll continue our division-by-division journey through the NFL.

Today, we’ll be looking at the AFC South where last season the Houston Texans narrowly edged out the Tennessee Titans for the division title. This year figures to be another tight race between these two teams, which should make for colossal matchups during the year. Indianapolis and Jacksonville each have talented teams but the quarterback situation could prevent them from making a move to the top of the division.

It won’t be pretty at times but this division will be one of the more intriguing storylines of the 2017 season. Let’s size up these teams in today’s edition of “No Huddle.”

Houston Texans (last season: 9-7)

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J.J. Watt’s return from multiple back surgeries has Houston in position to have the top defense in the NFL. Photo Credit: Houston Chronicle

The Texans seem to be in a perpetual state of competitive purgatory. They have made the playoffs four out of the past six seasons but have gone no further than the Divisional Round. In that time, the team has gone through a multitude of quarterbacks, and relying heavily on a defense that is consistently one of the best in the NFL. 2017 presents Houston with a rare opportunity to finally get over the hump, if they can take the division crown.

The key to this will be finally solving their questions at quarterback. Tom Savage took over for the ineffective Brock Osweiler last season and showed he could get this offense going in the right direction. Savage could just be the stopgap for the future of this team as Houston drafted Clemson quarterback DeShaun Watson with the 12th overall pick in the NFL Draft. Savage was named the starter in late July, but Watson has shown a lot of promise in the preseason so stay tuned here if the Texans start slow.

Once again the strength of this team will be the defense. Houston withstood the loss of J.J. Watt last season due in large part to the emergence of Jadaveon Clowney. We may finally get to see the full potential of this defense with Watt returning to the lineup. Opposing offenses will have their hands full trying to keep Watt and Clowney at bay on a weekly basis.

It will be an interesting season for sure, but the offense will have to improve if the Texans want to hang onto the division crown for a third consecutive season. Squeaking by with a 9-7 record just won’t cut it this season.

Tennessee Titans (last season: 9-7)

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Marcus Mariota has the Titans on the precipice of its first playoff appearance since 2008. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

The Titans are the main reason why the Texans should be worried about hovering around .500 for another season. Tennessee was one of the surprise teams of 2016 due in large part to the smash-mouth identity of this offense. DeMarco Murray proved that he is far from done as one of the best running backs in the NFL and the offensive line emerged as one of the best units in the league. Another bright spot was the vast improvement of quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Tennessee used this offseason to upgrade the receiver position to take this offense to the next level. While this isn’t a high-volume passing offense, drafting Corey Davis with the 5th overall pick and signing Eric Decker will certainly help give this offense another dimension. The Titans were one of the best red-zone offenses a year ago and the addition of two potentially solid receivers should only make them more efficient in that area.

Where the Titans will really need to improve is on the defensive side of the football. Last season the Titans finished 20th in the NFL on defense, which certainly kept this team from reaching the postseason. Tennessee spent much of free agency overhauling the secondary with the hopes that its front-seven would be solid again (12th in the NFL a year ago).

The new additions include cornerback Logan Ryan and safety Jonathan Cyprien. Ryan was one of the more underrated players on the New England defense last season but will be right in the spotlight this season transitioning into the top corner in Tennessee. Cyprien came into the league with a lot of potential but never seemed to reach the lofty expectations. The Titans used their second first round pick to select USC cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, who is an explosive playmaker and solid against the run game.

If the Titans expect to take the next step in their development and become a playoff team they will have to take care of business within the division. A 2-4 record against the AFC South prevented the Titans from stealing this division a year ago despite four out the last five games a year ago. Things are looking really good here, and don’t be surprised if the Titans force a changing of the guard in the AFC South.

Indianapolis Colts (last season 8-8)

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Will Andrew Luck’s injured shoulder kill Indy’s playoff hopes before the season even starts. Photo Credit: Associated Press

The Colts are a tough team to get a read on heading into 2017. A litany of injury concerns could prevent Indianapolis from capitalizing on potentially the easiest schedule in the NFL. This is an extremely volatile situation less than two weeks before the season starts.

Two key injuries on the offensive side of the ball will have a profound effect on how this season will go for the Colts this season. Since being drafted with the top pick in 2012 draft, Andrew Luck has had to carry this team on his shoulders. Unfortunately, his throwing shoulder is the main injury concern in Indy heading into this season. Conflicting reports about Luck’s recovery from offseason shoulder surgery have really prevented any realistic expectation for this team. As we get closer to the season though it is becoming increasingly likely that Luck will not be ready for Week 1 at the very least. The worst case scenario puts Luck out until Week 6, although it seems unlikely he will be out that long.

To make matters worse, the Colts already shaky offensive line lost its best player when center Ryan Kelly went down with a foot injury. Kelly was tremendous as a rookie last season, but he will be out for the first 6-8 weeks of the regular season after he had surgery to correct a bone defect. This injury could be the one that sinks the ship for the Colts this season.

Indianapolis spent much of the offseason trying to improve a defense that finished 30th in the NFL last season. The defensive side of the ball has never been this team’s strength, but if injuries are going to be a problem for the offense, this unit needs to become reliable. Rookie safety Malik Hooker could be one of the keys to making that change to this defense in addition to a number of free agent acquisitions. There is a lot of hype surrounding Jonathan Hankins, who could end up being this defense’s best player by the end of the season.

Overall, there is just too much uncertainty surrounding this team to really feel confident about its chances to get back to the postseason. At this rate, the Colts might be lucky to finish 8-8.

Jacksonville Jaguars (last season: 3-13)

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A convoluted quarterback situation could keep a talented Jaguars team in the NFL basement for another season. Photo credit: Associated Press

Speaking of uncertainty, the Jaguars enter this season with a metric ton of it. Doug Marrone took over for Gus Bradley as the head coach and Tom Coughlin was brought in to oversee the entire organization. While that should have signaled a step in the right direction, in true Jacksonville fashion, they have already taken a few steps backwards.

Most of that concerns the increasingly erratic play of quarterback Blake Bortles. Statistically he looks fine, but Bortles is failing the eye-test miserably this preseason. Bortles might be the king of garbage time, but until he shows that he can keep this team in games the Jags aren’t going anywhere. Chad Henne looks like a better option every time Bortles goes out on the field. Marrone may have named Bortles the Week 1 starter over the weekend, but it looks like the leash is going to be incredibly short.

Some form of consistent quarterback play will be the key for this team to truly embrace the of their new head coach. Marrone wants to run the ball right down the opposing defense’s throat. Jacksonville took Leonard Fournette in the first round of the draft and if healthy, he could become the next Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately, Fournette is already dealing with a foot injury, similar to the one that hampered him in his final season at LSU. Jacksonville just can’t seem to have nice things.

Things are not as dire on the defensive side of the ball though. Jacksonville has quietly put together an extremely talented defense, one that experts believe could be one of the surprise units this season. The Jags added Calais Campbell to an already solid defensive line. Another name to keep a eye on is weak-side defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, who totaled eight sacks as a rookie last season.

What could really make this a dangerous defensive unit is the play of Jalen Ramsey. A year ago Ramsey looked like one of the best corners in the league during the second half of the season. Year two for Ramsey brings a whole new set of challenges, as he will have to be the leader of this defense. His playmaking ability is unquestioned, but there is no room for him to have a sophomore slump.

While there are things to love about these Jaguars, the quarterback situation could prove too much to overcome this season. This won’t be one of the worst teams in the league, but the record may not show that. Don’t get too excited about Jacksonville’s chances this season.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with another installment of my NFL preview as we’ll be taking a look at the NFC North. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney, subscribe to Shooting the Moon on WordPress, and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

No Huddle: Seattle Leads the Way While the Rest of the Division Faces Changing Landscapes (NFC West Preview)

Final preparations and dress rehearsals are the theme of this weekend in the NFL as teams are getting one last look at their starters. We get one lasting impression before teams start to focus on their regular season openers in just about two weeks. More importantly, every team is mainly looking to get through the third preseason game without injuries. We’ll all have a pretty solid idea of where each team stands before they cut their rosters down to 53 players after the weekend.

In the meantime, let’s size up another division as we make our way towards September 7th. Today we are looking at the NFC West. Admittedly, it was a down year for this division as the Seahawks took the division without much issue. Seattle struggled for much of the season despite finishing 10-5-1. The rest of the NFC West really didn’t match the level that we have come to expect from this division over the past few years.

Arizona went from a potential Super Bowl contender to completely missing the postseason due to a myriad of on-field issues. Los Angeles spent most of the season with a sub-par offense holding back a talented defensive unit, raising many questions about the direction of the team. Over in San Francisco, the 49ers completely bottomed out essentially putting an end to the Chip Kelly experiment in the NFL.

2017 brings a number of questions inside this division. Will two regime changes light a fire at the bottom of the division? Can Arizona recapture the magic from two seasons ago? Are the Seahawks legitimate contenders now that key players are healthy once again? Let’s try to answer those questions in today’s “No Huddle.”

Seattle Seahawks (last season: 10-5-1)

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A healthy Seattle team aims to reclaim their spot among the NFL elite. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

2016 was a strange season in Seattle. This seemingly potent offense was kneecapped by poor offensive line play all season, which even led to injury issues for quarterback Russell Wilson. In spite of that, Seattle still showed its championship window is still open with Wilson and the Legion of Boom.

A new year offers a clean slate in many ways. Similar to the past couple of seasons, the Seattle offense will look to build upon a hot finish. Wilson and the passing game really stepped up at the end of the year but getting off to a good start will be vital this year.

The main question that remains is which running back will step up to lead they way. Thomas Rawls looked to have the inside track on free agent signing Eddie Lacy, but another ankle injury as kept this position battle in limbo. CJ Prosise will have a role as a receiving back but a groin injury has the coaching staff questioning the reliability of this potential Swiss Army knife. Adding to the confusion surrounding the running backs is the sudden emergence of rookie Chris Carson, who looked great in the first two preseason games and is getting reps with the first team. Much of the identity of this offense will undoubtedly be a direct result of which of these four can take the reigns before Week 1.

It’s a new year, but the same story for the Seattle defense. The return of Earl Thomas from a broken leg will certainly bring the edge back to the Legion of Boom. Without their eraser on the back-end of the defense, Seattle looked uncharacteristically vulnerable. There is no reason to worry about a dip in play from the Seahawks and a return to the top tier of NFL defenses is not out of the question.

A return to the playoffs is almost a certainty this season as Seattle has a leg up in the division race here. If we’re talking Super Bowl chances though, Seattle has seen the rest of the NFC catch up to them and securing some form of home-field advantage will be paramount.

Arizona Cardinals (last season: 7-8-1)

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David Johnson will have to be Mr. Everything for the Cardinals once again in 2017. Photo Credit: Associated Press

Talk about getting burned last season. Arizona saw one of the more surprising declines in the NFL last year after coming up short in the NFC Championship prior to Super Bowl 50. 2016 looked like a prime example of Murphy’s Law in full effect. Amazingly the Cardinals still stayed competitive, thanks to David Johnson showing the signs of becoming a full-fledged superstar.

The biggest battle that Arizona faces this season is the fight against Father Time for Carson Palmer. While many of his receivers battled injuries throughout the year, Palmer seemed to show signs that his age was catching up to him. Palmer’s arm became a major concern in the second half of the season as he lacked the ability to effectively throw the deep ball. In a Bruce Arians offense, that is a big problem. This year Arizona has made it a priority to keep Palmer on a “pitch count” until the games actually count.

Luckily for the Cardinals, Johnson avoided a potentially catastrophic knee injury at the end of the season. He looks ready to continue his ascent as one of the league’s top players and will be heavily relied upon as this offense undergoes a bit of an identity change. Palmer is not going to be able to consistently throw the ball 40 times per game, so look for Johnson to average close to 30 total touches per game.

Speaking of changes, the Cardinals defense underwent a complete facelift this offseason. Free agency saw the departure of five starters from this defense from a year ago, but an influx of defensive talent from the draft could help cushion the blow. Arizona drafted linebacker Hassan Reddick out of Temple and safety Budda Baker to fill some of the holes. These two have some pressure on them to hit the ground running as professionals to keep this defense afloat.

Ideally, health will be the key for this team as the year goes on, specifically for defensive back Tyrann Mathieu. When healthy, the Honey Badger is one of the most versatile and effective defensive players in the league. However, that has not been the case these past couple of seasons. He adds another much-needed playmaker alongside shutdown corner Patrick Peterson.

My biggest concern for this defense is the front seven. This was a top-10 rushing defense a year ago, but many of those key players are now gone. It’s well known that this is not the team to air it out against with their playmakers, but maintaining the success against the run game will be a key to this team’s success overall. So far this hasn’t been the case but there is plenty of time to right the ship.

Overall, this is a team with the makings of a playoff contender. However, playing in the NFC means there are a litany of teams knocking on the door of the postseason. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, there are too many things that will have to go just right to warrant playoff expectations. It’s looking like division title or bust in 2017.

Los Angeles Rams (last season: 4-12)

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Jared Goff and Todd Gurley will have to show improvements for the Rams this season in their second year together in Los Angeles. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

Where do I start with the Rams? Much of last season was spent in total disarray. There is no question that this defense has the makings of a top-ten unit in the league, but this offense is in desperate need of improvements. The Rams will be banking on a number of offseason moves to accomplish that goal.

It will be the first full season with 2016 number one pick Jared Goff at the helm of this offense. Goff did not show a ton of promise last year, but in his defense the learning curve coming from a air-raid collegiate offense to a pro-style offense is steep. However, the Rams front office made a bunch of moves to help aid the development of their young quarterback.

A coaching change was the first sign of that, as Jeff Fisher was fired midseason in 2016. LA replaced the king of 7-9 with former Washington offensive coordinator Sean McVay, making him the youngest coach in the NFL at age 31. McVay comes in with a good amount of hype thanks to the success of Kirk Cousins over the past few seasons. He’ll have a lot of work on his hands turning one of the league’s worst offenses around in 2017.

Todd Gurley is another young talent that needed some additions to this offense. Making teams respect the passing game will be the key to tapping the potential of Gurley. To do so, the Rams signed receiver Robert Woods and then traded for Sammy Watkins just a couple weeks ago. This should help to cushion the blow of losing the surprisingly effective Kenny Britt, but this will be all for naught if Watkins can’t stay healthy. Keep an eye on rookie receiver Cooper Kupp in this offense, as early reports tab him as the favorite receiver of Goff (fantasy alert!).

Potentially the biggest problem for the Rams on the defensive side of the ball is the prolonged holdout of defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Folks, this could really start to become an issue if Donald keeps to his word regarding his holdout. Multiple reports have stated that Donald, arguably one of the five best defensive players in the league, is willing to sit out regular season games in order to get the money he feels that he deserves. There is still time for both sides to come to an agreement but there have been no signs of that happening any time soon.

Luckily the Rams signed one of the leagues best defensive coordinators to help unleash the potential of this defense. Wade Phillips is fully capable of finding a way to get the most out of this defense until the Donald situation finally gets resolved. So while there is a glimmer of hope on this side of the ball, general manager Les Snead could be the key to the success of this defense. Not the kind of thing you want to hear in late August.

While signs are pointing to the Rams improving on the 4-12 record from a year ago, there is a long way for them to go to reach the postseason. The Rams will more likely be a spoiler than a pushover this season, especially if they can figure out some of the issues that have haunted them the past couple of season.

San Francisco 49ers (last season: 2-14)

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John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan are the new braintrust tasked with bringing San Francisco out of the NFL’s basement. Photo Credit: CSN Bay Area

One year ago, there was a massive feeling of dread surrounding the 49ers. A completely lost season followed, leading to management completely cleaning house moments after the conclusion of the 2016 regular season. San Francisco turned a lot of heads when they lured John Lynch out of the broadcast booth to become the team’s general manager. Lynch’s first order of business was finding a new head coach, and tapped the league’s hottest coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, to man the sidelines in San Francisco for the foreseeable future.

Lynch and Shanahan have a lot of work to do going forward, but ownership seems willing to see this rebuild through until the end. Year one will see the beginnings of a complete roster overhaul in the Bay Area. The 49ers signed former Shanahan players to help get his prolific scheme in place. Quarterback Brian Hoyer and receiver Pierre Garçon step into huge roles, as they will be teaching the younger players the details of Shanahan’s offense.

The big situation to monitor for the 49ers on offense is the backfield. Carlos Hyde has shown promise but injuries have derailed his progress. Early in the offseason it looked like Hyde could be on his way out, but came into OTAs and training camp with a renewed fire to be “the man” in this offense. Hyde could be on a short leash though, as Lynch signed veteran Tim Hightower and drafted rookies Joe Williams and Albert Brieda.

While Oakland might be known as the “Black Hole,” you would have thought that moniker belonged to San Francisco’s defense a year ago. Ranking as the league’s worst defense, the 49ers had a ton of holes. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is tasked with potentially one of the most difficult reclamation projects in the league this season.

The building blocks of this new-look Niners defense came in through the draft. Defensive tackle Soloman Thomas was drafted with the third overall pick then the Niners snagged Reuben Foster with the 34th pick in the draft. These two will be the bedrock for the Niners defense moving forward. Now it will be all about building up and around these two future Pro Bowlers.

Don’t expect a lot from the Niners this season, but this team will be much improved from the dismal team that took the field a year ago. The record might not show it, but the future is looking brighter for San Francisco.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back on Monday with another NFL preview and potentially my thoughts on the Mayweather-McGregor fight. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney, subscribe to Shooting the Moon on WordPress, and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

No Huddle: Shocker, New England is Poised for Another Super Bowl Run (AFC East Preview)

Can you feel the palpable excitement in the air? Its late August and the third week of the preseason begins tonight. The NFL regular season is two weeks away! While the offseason in the NFL has lacked the fireworks of the NBA offseason, I think we all are ready for a new season. Just like a thrilling season finale of your favorite show, Super Bowl LI was the epic exclamation point that left us all wanting more.

The 2017-18 season is shaping up to be quite the interesting affair. One team is the clear favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Minneapolis next February, while the rest of the league is jockeying for a chance to just be there at the end. Between all of the coaching changes, roster moves, and intriguing draft picks there is a feeling among many that cover the league that this could be one of the most chaotic seasons in recent memory.

This brings us to the beginning of the second full season of “No Huddle.” Today we’ll get started with my 2017-18 NFL preview with a look at the reigning Super Bowl champion New England Patriots and the rest of the AFC East. Now why are we starting here you might ask? Well, the quick answer is that, other than the Super Bowl champions being in this division, this is probably the easiest division to handicap heading into the season. So with that in mind, let’s not waste too much more time and just jump right in.

New England Patriots (last season: 14-2)

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Tom Brady has every reason to be smiling as the Patriots are the favorites to win Super Bowl LII this season. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

In most cases, its tough to imagine the reigning champions getting better during the offseason in the modern NFL. Of course, not every team is as savvy as the Patriots. While the Pats lost goal-line specialist LeGarrette Blount, cornerback Logan Ryan, and tight end Martellus Bennett in the offseason, they certainly did well to make upgrades all over this roster. On paper, this is potentially the best roster that the Pats have put together since they flirted with an undefeated season in 2007-08.

For the cost of a first round pick in the most recent NFL draft, the Patriots acquired speedster Brandin Cooks from the New Orleans Saints. While the Pats typically run a gameplan offense week-to-week, Cooks adds a dimension that this offense has not had (or needed) since the days of Randy Moss. It still remains to be seen how Cooks will ultimately fit in with Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, but defensive coordinators are going to have nightmares trying to scheme against New England this year.

New England also added running backs Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead to the backfield in free agency. Gillislee made his name as the effective backup to LeSean McCoy in Buffalo last season while Burkhead is the under-the-radar type of name the Pats always seem to find each season. Both will get a crack at filling the Blount role in this offense alongside the versatile running back tandem of James White and Dion Lewis.

Over on the defensive side of the ball, New England’s other major move of the offseason could end up being the biggest upgrade of all. The Patriots signed former Bills cornerback Stephon Gillmore to a contract worth $14 million per season. Gillmore, the top corner on the market, joins an already formidable secondary, which will be the backbone of what could be a devastating defensive unit. Not only did the Patriots get better with the Gillmore signing, but made Buffalo weaker with one more. Classic New England.

Provided this team stays healthy, repeating last season’s 14-2 record is not out of the question. New England could very easily go 6-0 in the AFC East, and should coast to the number one seed in the conference once again.

Miami Dolphins (last season: 10-6)

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Jay Cutler’s retirement didn’t last long as the Dolphins made a last ditch effort to save its season before it even started. Photo Credit: Palm Beach Post

Things were looking up for the Dolphins after a disappointing finish in the playoffs last season. A knee injury to Ryan Tannehill took the wind out of the Dolphins sails heading into the postseason. Unfortunately, Tannehill’s knee would get reinjured during the first week of training camp and will force him to miss the entire 2017-18 season. Not the way head coach Adam Gase could have envisioned his second year in Miami starting.

As they say, desperate times call for desperate measures. In an effort to stay in contention this season, Gase reached out to one of his former quarterbacks from his days as an offensive coordinator (no, not Peyton Manning). Gase talked Jay Cutler into putting his broadcasting career on hold and come out of retirement for one last season.

Early indications are that Cutler isn’t going to change his game, but it remains to be seen how he will affect this offense. Jay Ajayi will likely be the top option in this offense after a breakout year in 2016, so look for Miami to be run-heavy this year. In the passing game, I’ve got a feeling that DeVante Parker will turn into the Dolphins top weapon. Over the course of Cutler’s career, he has fallen in love with big-bodied receivers. Parker not only fits that bill but also plays the same position as another former Cutler target, Alshon Jeffery.

Defensively, we should expect more of the same from the Dolphins this season. Consistency will be the key here as the Dolphins will have to string together solid performances early on in the season. The first six weeks are crucial for the Dolphins having any chance at getting into the playoffs for a second consecutive season.

Buffalo Bills (last season: 7-9)

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Any hope for the Bills to break a 16-year playoff drought now rests solely on the legs of LeSean McCoy. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

Okay this is where this column takes a turn and I start sounding like a negative Nancy. This is for good reason though, because things in Buffalo aren’t all rainbows and butterflies. Former Carolina defensive coordinator Sean McDermott is now at the helm in Buffalo and has a long road ahead to turn the Bills into contenders once again.

The first indication that Buffalo is in the process of rebooting (not quite a rebuild yet) came a couple of weeks ago with the surprise trades of Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby to Los Angeles (Rams) and Philadelphia, respectively. In return the Bills got picks and receiver Jordan Matthews.

As in past years, this offense will rely heavily on the running game, led by Shady McCoy, especially now that the receiving core lacks a “stud” on the outside. The free agent signings of fullback Patrick DiMarco and “fullback” Mike Tolbert should signal that Buffalo is doubling down on the ground game.

Another sign that things in Buffalo aren’t looking great came in the form of the sudden retirement of Anquan Boldin last Sunday. 13 days after signing with the Bills, the future Hall of Famer decided that it was time to hang up the pads. Yikes. The only positive to come out of this is that we will get a good look at rookie Zay Jones this season (fantasy alert!).

However, the pressure now falls on quarterback Tyrod Taylor to prove he is capable of leading an NFL offense. To say that Taylor could be on a short leash is an understatement. There is a growing sentiment around Buffalo that fifth round pick Nathan Peterman could play a significant amount this season should Taylor falter early on this season. Once again, not good signs for Buffalo.

Defensively, I do like the regime change for the personnel here. The Bills defense was a lot better running a 4-3 scheme under Jim Schwartz than the 3-4 scheme employed by former head coach Rex Ryan. However, this doesn’t mean that the Bills will return to being a top-five defense under McDermott. This team has to readjust to the 4-3 both schematically and roster-wise.

Overall, this is shaping up to be a lost season in Buffalo and the playoff drought will likely continue. Hey, at least we’ll have the social media greatness of the Bills Mafia to keep us interested in Buffalo throughout the season.

New York Jets (last season: 5-11)

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Quite possibly the last smile we’ll see from a Jets player this season. Photo Credit: Getty Images

Holy dumpster fire Batman! The Jets bring today’s column to an end with a whimper. There is nothing to really get excited about for New York heading into this season. You know things are bad when repeating a 5-11 record seems like a pipe dream.

While the calling card of this team is its defense, don’t expect this unit to be saving the Jets a lot this season. This is due to the fact that this offense is looking like the worst in the NFL. Brandon Marshall left the Jets for the Giants in free agency, Eric Decker was cut then signed with Tennessee, and surprise contributor Quincy Enunwa is out for the season with a neck injury. Robbie Anderson is now the lead target in this receiving corps.

It only gets worse when you look at the quarterback situation. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith are gone, leaving Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg, and Bryce Petty vying to lead this offense. McCown is a journeyman while Hackenberg is the definition of unproven (don’t hold your breath on him though). Barring a herculean effort from running backs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell, don’t be surprised if this offense barely averages 14 points per game, which might even be generous.

Now I’m not saying that the Jets are definitely going 0-16, but they could give it a run as they are trending towards having the top pick in the 2018 NFL draft. Sorry Jets fans, it is going to be a looooooooooooooong season.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow to continue my NFL preview with a look at the NFC West. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney, subscribe to Shooting the Moon on WordPress, and like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook

Heat Check: The Kyrie Irving Blockbuster Trade Shakes Up the Future of the NBA

The hiatus is over! Shooting the Moon is back in a big way. Yes, it’s been awhile, but with football on the horizon and the massive news from last night was like flipping the switch on the bat signal. It’s time to dust off the keyboard and actually get back to writing. That’s not to say I’ve been totally out of the loop, the past few weeks has involved a lot of researching and studying so I’m anxious to get back to writing about the NFL, college football, and fantasy football yet again.

However, there is a massive piece of news that we need to get out of the way first before we can start talking about football. Judging from the “Heat Check” tag on this post, I’m sure there are no surprises here. The wild and never-ending NBA offseason may have dropped its biggest nugget last night in the form of superstar (and NBA 2K18 cover athlete) Kyrie Irving getting traded from Cleveland to Boston. This megadeal was weeks in the making, and yet came out of nowhere at the same time.

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Photo Credit: Getty Images

When news broke a month ago that Irving had requested to be traded, there was this sense that it was more “if” not “when” it would occur. Even more bizarre than the out-of-the-blue trade demand was the implication that Irving was no longer content to be the Robin to LeBron James’s Batman. Trade rumors were wildly tossed around like a lunchtime food fight, but all the while Irving remained a Cavalier.

First, he was as good as gone. Then, there was a feeling that Cleveland would hold off on making a deal in the hopes that Irving and James could smooth out their working relationship to make one more run at a championship. New Cleveland GM Koby Altman had quite the conundrum on his hands during his first month on the job.

Altman clearly saw that there was a limited shelf life for duo that brought Cleveland its first championship. The problem was how could he trade a 25-year old player, who is arguably one of the best point guards in the game, and give LeBron a reason to stick around after next season. Two superstars, Jimmy Butler and Paul George, were already traded this offseason for what seemed like pennies on the dollar. Altman was not in the position to be left holding an empty bag with this trade.

Enter the Boston Celtics, its general manager Danny Ainge, and the countless assets at their disposal. The league has been waiting with baited breath for when Ainge would finally push those chips to the center of the table to acquire a superstar. Ainge is notorious for being a great trade negotiator (ex. forming the Big Three in 2008, then trading Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to the Nets in 2013). However, he did not pull the trigger to acquire Butler or George. Ainge was willing to play the long game in order to get the Celtics back to the NBA Finals and was unwilling to flip the two most valuable trade pieces at his disposal to get a star.

That 2017 pick swap with Brooklyn that turned into the number one pick in the draft? It was untouchable for the longest time, until days before the draft in late June when Boston traded down with Philadelphia. It netted Boston the third pick (Jason Tatum) and either the Lakers 2018 first round pick (if it falls at 2-5) or the better of the Kings/Sixers first round picks in 2019 (unprotected).

So what would it take for the Celtics to finally make their move? Well it turns out the Irving trade request opened up a huge opportunity. Last night the NBA world was rocked by the news that the top two teams in the Eastern Conference agreed to a megadeal that sent Irving to Boston in exchange for Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic, and the Nets 2018 unprotected first round pick. Now that we’ve all had some time to let that piece of news sink in, we have to try and figure out what this means heading into next season.

As for the NBA championship, Vegas sports books still have the Golden State Warriors as the HEAVY favorites to repeat in 2018. The Cavs and Celtics odds to win the title also remained the same as well. Truthfully, this speaks more to the dominant roster that resides in the Bay Area than anything. In reality, this trade has more far-reaching effects than just next season.

While most NBA insiders believe that LeBron might leave Cleveland, last night’s trade may have pushed more people into agreeing with that opinion. A championship run could be the only thing keeping the King in “The Land” past next summer. However, the path there got much more difficult now that Boston has Irving to lead the new-look Celtics.

I have held a strong opinion that the Eastern Conference would be up for grabs sooner rather than later, and this trade has only strengthened that opinion. Boston is in the driver’s seat long term, while Washington and Milwaukee each have rosters ready to take the next step towards a championship. Toronto kept much of last year’s roster for one more run, but they could be on their last legs with the current iteration of this team. Cleveland is certainly heading towards a rebuild sooner than we could have expected a few months ago. Speaking of rebuilding, the Philadelphia 76ers are finally on their way towards relevance, provided that its young core can finally be healthy all at once.

Over in the Western Conference, we all know that the Warriors will be the team to beat for the foreseeable future. Houston has a one-year experiment with Chris Paul and James Harden, so we will have to see what the future holds for them. San Antonio can never be counted out and are lurking like the army of the dead in Game of Thrones. Minnesota has built an impressive core of players and is poised to take aim at the champs. Oklahoma City has two of the best playmakers in the entire league, but for how long?

If this Irving trade has done anything, it has made the foreseeable future of the NBA a lot murkier past next season. The summers of 2018 and 2019 will now become major turning points for the next five years in the NBA. October can’t come soon enough for the Association.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with the return of “No Huddle” to start my division previews for the 2017-18 NFL season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney, subscribe to Shooting the Moon on WordPress, and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Heat Check: Did the NBA Awards and Social Media Start the Next Great NBA Rivalry?

Let’s be honest folks, the NBA Awards show last night went like most awards ceremonies typically play out. The awards are given out and aside from a speech here or there, it isn’t something we’ll come to remember down the line. However, the seeds for the NBA’s next great rivalry may have been planted last night. This is something that might not bloom for another year or two but it is something worth keeping an eye on.

In today’s NBA rivalries are few and far between. All we really have at the moment are Cavs-Warriors, and potentially Boston-Washington. We can’t really call OKC-Golden State a rivalry either. Although there is bad blood between the teams, the Thunder can’t touch the Warriors on the scoreboard.

Maybe this is more emblematic of the star-driven nature of the NBA, but we can all agree that a top-flight rivalry would help the league hold our attention a little more. Yes, this most recent Finals drew big ratings, but overall the NBA season ratings took a dive. The inevitability of Cavs-Warriors III in the Finals certainly could have had something to do with that, but there is an argument to be made that the lack of rivalries didn’t help either.

There is some hope though. Even if the 2017-18 season is looking like the coronation for the Warriors dynasty, there is a shift waiting to happen in the NBA after that. The league will not belong to Cleveland and Golden State forever.

Boston is already on the fringe of contending, and has a ridiculous amount of assets and money to build a championship team. Minnesota cashed in young talent to steal Jimmy Butler from Chicago, solidifying a potential big three. The Lakers cleared out cap space for next offseason in the hopes to bring Paul George into the fold, and potentially another star as well. Milwaukee is building quite the roster around the Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokoumpo. Plus, Philadelphia’s process has them on the precipice on making a huge move towards the top of the league provided they all stay healthy (easier said than done though).

A lack of parity has left us with a sense of apathy for the other 28 teams in the league. That is all hopefully about to change, as some of these teams that have been building these past three years finally become contenders. With a potentially leveled playing field, competition will breed compelling rivalries down the line.

 

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Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

Which brings me back to last night. Milwaukee’s Malcolm Brogdon took home the 2016-17 Rookie of the Year award over the Philadelphia duo of Joel Embiid and Dario Saric. On the surface this doesn’t seem like much ado of anything, but it did lead to quite a Twitter spat between the Bucks, Sixers, and their respective fan bases.

Like I said, this was just a seed, but this could lead to quite the rivalry in the Eastern Conference between two teams poised to battle down the line. Milwaukee is clearly ahead of the Sixers at the moment but Philadelphia doesn’t seem too far behind the Bucks from joining the big boys table in the NBA.

Let’s compare real quick. On each side you have generational talents in the Greek Freak, Embiid, and Ben Simmons who each have the potential to be squarely in the MVP discussion down the line. NBA fans should be salivating at the thought of Antetokoumpo and Simmons matching up against each other. The Bucks have their own spry big man in Thon Maker to go up against Embiid. Brogdon will now be the ire of the Philadelphia fan base, which should provide plenty of fun there. The Sixers now have top-pick Markelle Fultz to counter the Rookie of the Year in Brogdon.

Last night’s seed will need some watering over the next season or so if this is going to bloom into the next great NBA rivalry, but there is clearly something palpable between these teams.

 

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” with a rumor-round up ahead of the start of free agency in the NBA. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Heat Check: It’s Going to Be a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad Offseason

Well it only took a week for the NBA to descend into chaos. The league seems to be coming to terms with the budding Golden State dynasty, which means everyone is trying figure out how to stop the champs. It may only be two days until the draft, but no one is waiting to make a move to improve the team. Today’s “Heat Check” is will be examining the Sixers-Celtics trade and reviewing some of the other hot headlines and rumors heading into the NBA Draft.

The Process Gets Another #1 Pick

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Photo Credit: NBA.com

The 2017 NBA offseason got a shotgun start over the weekend as the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers shook up the top of Thursday night’s draft. Late Friday afternoon Twitter went ablaze with reports from all the insiders that both teams were in “deep negotiations” in a trade that involved Boston’s number one overall pick. This then led to reports that top prospect Markelle Fultz would be heading to Philadelphia on Saturday, lending more credence that the trade was imminent.

Finally the trade became official yesterday, which now means Philadelphia will have the top pick in the draft for the second consecutive season. Boston now owns the third selection on Thursday. Philadelphia will also give Boston a future first round pick. If the 2018 Lakers pick falls between 2-5, Boston gets the pick otherwise they will get the better pick between the 2019 Kings or Sixers pick.

Overall, this is win-win for both teams involved, which is not something you often see out of a trade involving Boston GM Danny Ainge. Philadelphia gets Markelle Fultz, who is not only seen as the best player in this draft, but is seen as the best fit within the core of the Sixers. The Process gains another cornerstone to build around, and leaves Philadelphia in a terrific position to take the next step towards becoming a contender.

Boston picks up another high value first round pick in the future and stays within the top five on Thursday night. The Celtics now have eight first round picks over the next three drafts, but the real question is what are they doing with those assets? On The Bill Simmons Podcast yesterday, Simmons and Kevin O’Connor theorized that Boston is potentially building for 2018 and 2023.

It’s a long discussion, but the thinking is that Boston could try and trade for a player like Jimmy Butler now. Then the Celtics could control the East if LeBron leaves Cleveland next summer, but also become a viable landing spot for Anthony Davis in a few years.

One final note about this trade, it is just the fourth time in NBA history that the number one overall pick has been traded. This is a rare occurrence and this could be a trade we look back at in a decade as a turning point in the NBA.

 

With Trade Negotiations Underway, Cavs GM Griffin Steps Down

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Photo Credit: Getty Images

Amidst all of the rumors that surfaced after the press conference in Philadelphia yesterday, Cleveland had some big news of its own as general manager David Griffin stepped down just days before the draft. The draft isn’t the interesting bit of the timing though, because many of yesterday’s trade rumors involved the Cavaliers.

It is no secret that the Cavaliers are looking to retool the roster in order to matchup better against Golden State. Cleveland has been linked in trade talks to players like Paul George and Jimmy Butler. These rumors also led to reports that the Cavs had been looking for a third team in any trade that would land either of the All-Stars from Indiana and Chicago. Griffin is the one who negotiated the trade to bring Kevin Love to Cleveland, so this is a very bad time to be shaking things up.

Much of the blame for the sudden departure has fallen on Cavs owner Dan Gilbert, who has never extended a general manager in his tenure as team owner. ESPN’s Dave McMenamin reported that Griffin and Gilbert had differing opinions on the future of the team, which put the writing on the wall for the now former general manager. Even more alarming was that not even LeBron James was consulted before any of this went down.

This doesn’t necessarily sound like things are peachy in “The Land” but there does seem to be a backup plan in place. ESPN analyst Chauncey Billups is reportedly being looked at by Cleveland to become the President of Basketball Ops. Either way, it was a wild day for the Cavs.

Jimmy Butler: The Big Ticket Item of Summer 2017

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Photo Credit: Getty Images

After limping into the playoffs after a season of issues, it looks like the Bulls are ready to hit the reset button on the franchise. The first move would be trading All-Star guard Jimmy Butler. He is 27 years old and has two years left on his contract, so this could be the perfect timing for the Bulls to get maximum value for their superstar. Cleveland and Boston will likely be the two top potential landing spots for Butler, and this could turn into quite the bidding war.

Boston could seemingly snap their fingers and have Butler in a Celtics uniform tomorrow, but they could have done that four months ago as well. Either way the Celtics have the most to offer for Bulter, which could make for very high priced negotiations over the next few weeks.

The Cavaliers need to get very creative in order to acquire Butler. Despite the fact that there have been conversations between Kyrie Irving and LeBron James with Butler about joining the Cavs, it will take much more than charm to get this done. Cleveland has no cap room and very little trade assets outside of Kevin Love, so a third team would need to be roped in for the Cavs to get their man.

Interestingly, the third team reportedly at the front of the line for Butler is the Minnesota Timberwolves. Butler has a previous relationship with Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau, and there are considerable assets that the team could offer in a trade. Karl-Anthony Towns will likely be untouchable, but Minnesota does have players like Zach Levine and Andrew Wiggins to help sweeten a potential deal.

The Summer(s) of (Paul) George

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Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

After Paul George failed to make the All-NBA team a few weeks ago, the Indiana Pacers lost its leverage to keep star Paul George. Jokingly known as the “sack of money” extension, Indiana can no longer offer George more than $70 million more than other suitors to keep George in a Pacers uniform long term. George then made it known to the Pacers organization that he does not intend on resigning with the team in 2018.

Now the fun starts. Indiana may not be able to get full value for George now that other teams know he is on his way out, but the team’s top priority will be to get something for him sooner rather than later. The bidding war could already be underway with teams like Cleveland, Boston, and Los Angeles (Lakers) all in the mix to acquire the All-Star. Even if a team can strike a deal, the concern for them would be getting him to sign long-term.

When George told the Indiana front office that he did not intend to resign with the team, he also made it know that he would prefer to sign with the Lakers. Obviously that would put the Lakers in the driver’s seat to acquire him this summer or next. As of about 3 P.M. today, we can also add the Clippers, Rockets, and Wizards among the teams that are vying to acquire George.

Did the Knicks Really Put Porzingis on the Block?

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Photo Credit: Associated Press

In today’s bit of wild and crazy news, the New York Knicks are entertaining trade offers for Kristaps Porzingis. This comes on the heels of a tumultuous end of the season for the Knicks, leaving Phil Jackson at the mercy of Carmelo Anthony’s no-trade clause in order to make this team any better. Now it seems that after skipping his exit interview with the team, Porzingis may be on the move.

Nothing is concrete, but there are plenty of teams that would line up to acquire the budding superstar. The 7’3” Latvian has been tabbed as the next Dirk Nowitski and is on the forefront of the evolution of NBA centers. It will likely take a king’s ransom to pry Porzingis away from the Knicks but the fact that Jackson is weighing his options really speak volumes about the dysfunction at Madison Square Garden.

 

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with a look ahead to the NHL expansion draft for the Las Vegas Golden Knights. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Tour Talk: Sizing Up the 117th U.S. Open at Erin Hills

The two-month wait is over. Golf’s second major begins this weekend as the 117th U.S. Open tees off tomorrow at Erin Hills. Over the course of the next four days, 156 of the world’s best professional and amateur golfers will attempt to win one of the most storied tournaments in the world. Similar to two years ago at Chambers Bay, the field will be playing a course hosting the U.S. Open for the first time. How will it all shake out, and who will take home the championship?

The Course

 

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This “Scottish-American hybrid” course stretches over 7700 yards, which includes four par-fives. Photo Credit: Erin Hills

Erin Hills will act as the setting, but also the main antagonist to the drama that will take place just 35 miles northwest of Milwaukee. In true U.S. Open fashion, this course has some interesting challenges for this type of tournament. The course will play as the longest in the history of the U.S. Open but that doesn’t necessarily mean hitting it long is the surest path to success.

That was until Tuesday when the USGA shortened the knee-high fescue roughs. The USGA claims that this was not due to complaints from certain players. Some players voiced concerns that potential rainstorms could create areas in the rough that would be unplayable during the course of the weekend. It was a bit of a controversial move, considering that this essentially makes things a bit easier for the field.

This course has some of the widest fairways that you will ever see for a course hosting the U.S. Open. Tee shots shouldn’t be the issue this week if you find the fairway, which should play into the favor of the more powerful and accurate players. However, the players that will rise to the top of the leaderboards will be the guys who are solid with their irons.

Approach and short games will really be tested this week as Paul Azinger, on the Clubhouse podcast, described the areas around the greens to be more Augusta National than a traditional U.S. Open course. This means there will be up-and-down opportunities available, but you have to be extremely precise with your approach. Winds will be a key factor to keep an eye on this weekend, because if gusts are weak, the greens will become even more accessible with a lack of physical protection from the surrounding course.

As for the actual greens themselves, they are supposedly in perfect condition at the moment. However, the guys from Shackhouse did point out that if the course gets firm these greens would become a nightmare for the players. It will be interesting to see how all of these factors come together this week.

The Field

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Dustin Johnson is back to defend his U.S. Open championship from last season, but between the course and field, that is easier said than done. Photo Credit: Associated Press

156 players (if Phil Mickelson can play) start the tournament tomorrow trying to take home the U.S. Open Championship trophy. By Sunday, there will be one man hoisting the trophy as the ultimate Father’s Day celebration. There is a very intriguing mix of talent in this year’s field:

  • U.S. golfers in the Field: 87
  • Former Champions in the Field: 11
  • First time qualifiers in the field: 50
  • Number of Countries Represented: 23

Those are some of the more interesting statistics, but the one that caught my eye are the number of players who have actually played at Erin Hills for a tournament of this magnitude. The biggest tournament that this course has hosted in its ten-year history was the U.S. Amateur in 2011. In this field there are 18 golfers who played in that tournament, including Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas. Experience may not be a huge factor this week, but this is certainly an interesting bit of information to keep in your back pocket.

Let’s move on to some of the best pairings for the opening rounds. Often times, the best part of Thursday and Friday are watching star-studded groups playing with and against each other, jockeying for position on the leaderboard. Here are some of the best groups for the first two rounds. Keep in mind that tee times for Thursday are the opposite on Friday (ex. Morning groups on Thursday play in the afternoon on Friday).

Thursday

7:51 A.M. (10th tee) – Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm

8:24 A.M. (10th tee) – Matt Kuchar, Francesco Molinari, Patrick Reed

8:35 A.M. (10th tee) – Martin Kaymer, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson

1:36 P.M. (1st tee) – Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott

1:47 P.M. (1st tee) – Henrik Stenson, Charl Schwartzel, Louis Oosthuizen

1:58 P.M. (1st tee) – Jimmy Walker, Justin Thomas, Paul Casey

2:09 P.M. (1st tee) – Jason Day, Rory McIlory, Justin Rose

There are some incredible groupings here and feature some of the best golfers and potential storylines that could dominate the tournament. Spieth and DJ could see a lot of each other this weekend considering they are two of the favorites to win the tournament, it could be possible to see them play against each other for three or potentially even four days in a row.

For my money, the group I am most interested in is the Matsuyama/Fowler/Rahm group. Each one of these men have the ability to win this tournament, but we can more realistically think of this as the “Wild Card group.” This is a group that can have all three near the top of the leaderboard or at least two players miss the weekend.

The Weather

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Courtesy: National Weather Service

As of right now, the weather report looks okay for the weekend. Rain is in the forecast, but Saturday is the most likely day for that to be a factor. Winds will be light to moderate for most of the weekend, until the final round on Sunday where winds could reach upwards of 17mph during the day.

*A quick side note for the weather. If there is any kind of rain delay on Thursday morning, Phil Mickelson will be able to make it to Erin Hills in time for the 2:20 PM tee time. He previously said he would miss the tournament to attend his daughter’s graduation, but the USGA has given him a way to do both (with some help).

The Winner

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Who will rise up to join the ranks of U.S. Open champions? Photo Credit: USGA

With so many factors to consider, this is a difficult tournament to predict. Weather could play a huge factor in augmenting the features of this course. Mother Nature has the ability to turn this long but forgiving course into a hellish nightmare that has no end. That being said, it looks as though the weather should cooperate for much of the week.

While many experts believe that the long-ball players will own this course, something tells me it won’t be the major key for the winner. Irons and putters will be doubly important with the way the greens are expected to play. Dustin Johnson is the popular pick to win this tournament, but he has yet to regain his early season dominance following his unfortunate accident that caused him to miss The Masters.

Finesse will outweigh power when it counts this weekend. The conditions of the course would lead you to believe that this is shaping up to be similar to when Rory McIlory shredded the field at Congressional in 2011. Unfortunately, Rory still hasn’t looked like Rory this season.

Could this be the week we finally get to see Jordan Spieth get back on track? Of the favorites, Spieth has the best chance of winning this week. While he’s isn’t one of the longer players off the tee, his short game has always been one of his best assets. While he’ll be in contention this week, this major championship won’t belong to him by the end.

I’m going out on a limb here, but I think that this is the week that Rickie Fowler finally wins his first major championship. He’s coming off of a T2 finish at The Memorial two weeks ago, so there is some positive momentum heading into this week. Yes, Fowler has not played well in previous U.S. Open tournaments, but this course seems like the one that he can find success on.

Fowler is in the top-five on the PGA Tour in fairways hit this year. Despite the USGA knocking down the fescue roughs, missing the fairway will most likely lead to big numbers. Accuracy off the tee is going to be more important that whacking the ball 350 yards off the tee.

The putter is going to be big this week for Fowler as well. If he is in a groove like he was at The Memorial, then he will be tough to beat. In fact, Fowler is seventh on Tour this season in strokes gained from putting. At some point it has to come together for him, and this looks like the course that can provide him with his first major championship.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back on Friday with a new episode of the Shooting the Moon Podcast where I’ll be talking U.S. Open and MLB. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.