I wish I could say it was a happy Monday. Unfortunately the world has different plans for many of us. Before we get to any football talk, I want to extend my thoughts and prayers to those affected by the horrific mass shooting in Las Vegas early this morning. It is a truly sad day in this country.

Despite today’s somber state of affairs, we have a “No Huddle” to get through in advance of tonight’s Week 4 finale in Kansas City. There is also a full day of NFL action to digest as well. It was another unpredictable day in the league yesterday but that meant we got some great games to watch along the way. This brings up our weekly question. What did we learn this week?

Deshaun Watson has the Look of a Star

We are leading with a positive note here, and it builds off of something we learned last week. Not only is Deshaun Watson looking like the franchise quarterback that Houston has been searching for years to find, he has the look of an instant star. Back-to-back impressive performances have the collective NFL experts turning their heads.

Watson’s five-touchdown performance in Houston’s 57-14 rout of the Titans proved that last week was far from a fluke. This Houston offense is starting to gel, especially now that Will Fuller is back in the mix. Fuller’s presence will keep star receiver DeAndre Hopkins from getting double-teamed every play. That is good news for Watson, who can use as much firepower as he can muster.

While Watson has played well, next week is going to be the biggest test of his season so far with Kansas City coming into town. With that said, the early returns on the 12^th overall pick in the draft have been stellar.

New England has a Serious Problem

Don’t hit the panic button just yet New England fans since its only Week 4. However, the Patriots have a big problem right now. This defense, which most people thought would be a top-ten unit, is looking like one of the worst in the league. So far, this has been a very un-Patriots defense.

They have been giving up big plays in every game. It has been a risky venture to hope they can come up with a key stop. Situational football is typically the New England strong suit, but even that is an area they are struggling in right now.

New England has given up four consecutive 300-yard passing games and 128 points so far. This secondary was supposed to be the strength of this defense, and there have been far too many mistakes thus far. Blown coverages have become a consistent sight as well. It also doesn’t help that the pass rush is lacking and the front-seven is allowing over five yards per rush.

Tom Brady and this offense look great, but could it be to the detriment of this defense? Possibly. In a year of needing to play complementary football, this high-octane offense is leaving a struggling defense exposed more often than not. These are the Patriots though, and luckily this defense only needs to be “below-average” with the way this offense can put up points.

It is still early, but a 2-2 start with both losses coming at home is less than ideal. If these defensive struggles continue through Halloween, we might need to start rethinking the Patriots being a lock for a deep playoff run.

The Giants and Chargers are Done

One percent. Those are the chances of a team that starts 0-4 of making the playoffs. Among all of the surprises we have seen through the first quarter of the regular season, the Giants and Chargers starting 0-4 are chief among them. Unfortunately for both of these teams, that is likely the end of their playoff hopes for 2017.

The real shocker is the Giants sitting at 0-4 to start the season. New York came into the season with very high expectations following an impressive 11-5 season a year ago. However the problems that were simmering (no running game, bad offensive line, poor offensive efficiency) have now bubbled to the surface. It is now at the point where this “championship caliber” defense that everyone raves about can’t cover for the issues of this offense.

The Giants also could be the 2017’s example for why the Pythagorean wins projection is an important stat. It’s a simple math formula that takes into account points for/against to measure future success of a team. As great as the Giants played last season, their projected wins based on this formula put them at 8.35 wins. To put it in even more plain terms, the Giants overachieved last season based on the numbers.

With very little upgrades and improvements, we are seeing the worst of this football team. Through four games, the Giants have a Pythagorean projection of 6.19 wins. This is a team that is regressing before our eyes.

Frustrations are mounting in Los Angeles as they added another single-digit loss to their incredible run of tough luck in close games. Typically you like to see the team that finds a way to win, but the Chargers are finding more ways to lose with each passing week. The incredible part is this is a team that could be 3-1 if a few bounces went their way.

Unfortunately, there are no cute stats to explain just how this keeps happening to the Chargers. Even worse, they don’t have any solace in playing at home either. So far the move to Los Angeles has been a disaster for this franchise. Just look at the predominantly pro-Philadelphia crowd from yesterday.

At this point it is pretty safe to say that both of these teams while both teams have a chance to salvage their seasons, the playoffs are just not going to be in the cards in 2017.

Washington vs. Kansas City (MNF Preview)

Photo Credit: NFL

We finish up today’s “No Huddle” with a quick look at tonight’s game between the Redskins and Chiefs. Right off the bat, this was the most intriguing matchup of the entire Week 4 slate. The Chiefs have been stellar through three games while the Redskins are coming off a monster win a week ago. This has the makings of a classic game from Arrowhead Stadium.

This is an interesting test for both teams. For Washington, this will be the toughest team they have faced so far in one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL. For Kansas City, they have a team riding the incredible high of shellacking one of the key playoff contenders in the AFC.

Speaking of that Washington drubbing of Oakland, this is where we will start for the keys to this matchup. The biggest question is can this Washington defense repeat the same success they had a week ago? Washington completely shut down the Raiders with an incredible effort from its pass rushers, which allowed the secondary to smother the Oakland receivers.

Kansas City’s offense is a bit of a different animal than the Raiders. While the Chiefs offensive line isn’t as good as the Raiders, Kansas City has much more explosive playmakers and a quarterback that is playing lights out right now. The Chiefs present so many potential problems for opposing defenses because if you don’t play things just right, the ball is likely ending up in the endzone. Dating back to last season, the Chiefs have scored a 50+-yard touchdown in nine consecutive games. Rookie sensation Kareem Hunt has done that in his first three games.

The individual matchup of Josh Norman and Tyreek Hill should be a great one to watch in this game. Hill is easily one of the fastest players in the league, and Norman looks more like the shutdown corner we saw in his Carolina days. Norman might not have the speed to keep up with Hill, so expect Norman to be physical and even get a little help from the safety over the top.

If Washington has any chance of slowing down this Chiefs offense, they are going to have to make Alex Smith miss throws, period. So far this season, Smith is completing an absurd 77 percent of his passes. Smith is playing like a man possessed right now, and coach Andy Reid has been pushing all of the right buttons with this offense.

On the other side of this matchup, you have to wonder how Kirk Cousins will fare against one of the league’s best defenses. As I’m writing this now, there is still no definitive word on where Rob Kelley or Jordan Reed will play in this game. Receiver Jamison Crowder also tweaked his hamstring in practice this week. Assuming that all three play, and they will probably need them, Cousins will have to spread the wealth to keep the Chiefs from keying on Chris Thompson.

Thompson is in the midst of a breakout start for the Redskins. He only averages nine touches per game, but is scoring touchdowns at an insane rate. Thompson has four touchdowns on 27 touches (carries/receptions) through three games. For comparison sake, extrapolated over a full season Thompson’s touchdown rate would double last year’s top fantasy player David Johnson. He’s unquestionably the hot-hand in this offense right now so look for Jay Gruden to find creative ways to get him the football tonight.

Overall, this is going to be a tough game for the Redskins to win. That isn’t to say that Washington won’t make a game out of it, but right now it’s really tough to pick against the Chiefs. But, hey that’s why the play the game right. As for my pick tonight, I’m going to go with Kansas City (-7) to cap off a great week for my ATS pick.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with the return of “Curtain Call” to get you ready for the MLB postseason. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.