No Huddle: KC’s Opening Statement, Week 1 Preview and ATS Picks

We were all expecting a statement to be made in Foxborough on Thursday night. No one outside of Kansas City could have expected to see that game play out like that. The Chiefs dismantled the Patriots in the second half to open the season with a 42-27 win over the defending champs. Alex Smith showed exactly why this is still his team, totally outperforming Tom Brady.

However, the real star of the game was Chiefs rookie Kareem Hunt. In one of the best debuts in recent memory, Hunt overcame a fumble on his first carry en route to 246 total yards and three touchdowns. An absolute monster night for the third round pick out of Toledo fueled the big upset.

There were two key moments that changed this game. New England marched right down the field on their first drive to open the game with a touchdown. The Pats had a chance to get a quick 14-0 lead following the Hunt fumble, but Eric Berry made a huge fourth down stop in the red zone to give the Chiefs life early on.

The second turning point came later in the night when New England linebacker Dont’a Hightower left the game with a knee injury. Once the New England defense lost Hightower, it was open season for Kansas City. Hunt would score a 78-yard receiving touchdown on backup Curtis March (who signed with the Pats five days ago). From there the Chiefs were off to the races.

New England suffered another loss when Danny Amendola left the game with a possible concussion. Kansas City’s defense stifled the defending champs the rest of the night. In a rare sight, the Pats were scrambling for answers on the sidelines but just couldn’t get anything going as the game got further out of reach.

All of that preseason talk of a Pats undefeated season is now up in smoke. We can all agree that this was a supremely impressive performance by the Chiefs, who have put the rest of the league on notice. I will be the first one to admit when I’m wrong, and it’s a less than ideal way to start another season picking games.

Now let’s move onto the rest of Week 1. There are a pair of playoff caliber games on the slate, which should make for quite the day on Sunday. We’ll take a look at both of these marquee games before I reveal my picks against the spread for the week.

We’ll start with the matchup of the week between the two teams most experts believe will meet in the NFC Championship game in January. Seattle meets Green Bay in a fantastic matchup that is rightfully the national game of the week. Russell Wilson versus Aaron Rodgers is not a bad way to get the season started.

As expected, the key matchup will be the Packers offense versus the Legion of Boom. Rodgers has done well against Seattle as of late, but this defense is much improved from the one he put up 38 points on a year ago. Earl Thomas is healthy and could be the biggest difference maker. Seattle sorely lacked the presence of their All-Pro caliber safety. The recent addition of Sheldon Richardson could be an even bigger factor in this matchup. Richardson and Michael Bennett will be a scary combination on the defensive line making things difficult for any quarterback, Rodgers included.

While that matchup will probably dictate most of the action, the matchup between the Seattle offense and Green Bay defense might be more of a factor. Seattle’s offensive line has been the Achilles heel of this unit and is already without starting left tackle George Fant. One observation from the preseason is that Green Bay will look to bring pressure on any down, which will mean Russell Wilson has to play from outside the pocket. Wilson is adept in that area of his game, but he has to keep himself away from the “big hit.”

Seattle’s passing game as the ability to reach another level and they might have to flip that switch in this game. The Seahawks cannot afford to get into a shootout with Rodgers, but the passing attack will be relied upon heavily. With Thomas Rawls likely out in this game, Eddie Lacy will be the lead back. The revenge factor might be a tad overblown because Seattle has struggled to run the ball for about two seasons.

Any way you cut it, this should be an incredible game and a hell of a potential playoff preview.

Now we’ll move onto the tonight’s primetime game between the Cowboys and the Giants. The buildup to this game has been all about the status of two young stars on either side of the matchup. Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott has seemingly won his battle with the NFL for now and will be in action for the Cowboys. The Giants might not be so lucky as Odell Beckham will be a gametime decision with a high ankle sprain. While the Giants would love to have their superstar receiver in the lineup, it may be in the best interest of the season to hold him out to get him back to 100 percent.

As far as the game goes, this will all be about the Dallas offense versus the New York defense. Last season the Giants used their second ranked defense to get the best of the Cowboys in both games. In order to continue that winning streak, they will need this defense to control the game once again.

Elliott rushed for 100 yards in the second matchup but it took 24 carries to do so. The Dallas offensive line will have their hands full with this stout New York front, which should make for quite a battle in the trenches. Whoever controls the offensive line will hold the key to winning this matchup.

Dallas has to find some success on offense because even without OBJ the Giants could have their way with the Cowboys defense. A young secondary against this passing attack is not an ideal scenario. Eli Manning may not have the best line in front of him, but Dallas lacks an adequate pass rush due to suspensions across the defensive line.

Even with Elliott being able to play in this game, you would have to give a slight edge to the Giants to open the season.

Okay now onto the fun part of these columns, my picks against the spread. Last season I had my ups and downs, finishing the regular season picking about 55 percent winners against the spread. I caught fire in the playoffs going 9-1 money line before nailing my Super Bowl pick thanks to the incredible comeback by the Pats.

A new year brings a clean slate and a higher bar to reach. Starting 0-1 certainly wasn’t the perfect way to start the season but Sunday brings 13 more chances to right the ship. As always I’ll save the Monday night games for the Sunday recap column on Monday. So here we go, my first set of picks for the 2017 season (Winners in Bold).

This Week: 0-1        2017 season: 0-1

1:00 p.m. kickoff 

Philadelphia (-1) vs. Washington

NY Jets (+8) vs. Buffalo

Atlanta (-6.5) vs. Chicago

Baltimore (+3) vs. Cincinnati

Pittsburgh (-9.5) vs. Cleveland

Arizona (-2.5) vs. Detroit

Jacksonville vs. Houston (-4.5)

Oakland vs. Tennessee (-2.5)

 

4:05/4:25 p.m. kickoff 

Indianapolis vs. LA Rams (-4.5)

Seattle (+3) vs. Green Bay

Carolina (-5) vs. San Francisco

 

Sunday Night Football

NY Giants (+4) vs. Dallas

 

That’s it for me today. Enjoy all of the NFL action! I’ll be back tomorrow with a recap of the Week 1 games. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

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