No Huddle: Will an Atlanta Super Bowl Hangover Open the Door for Tampa Bay and Carolina? (NFC South Preview)

Well it has been an interesting twelve hours in the NFL. Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott had his suspension upheld by the arbitrator Harold Henderson. However, since the decision was not made until last night, Elliott is eligible to play this weekend against the Giants. The six-game suspension will likely start next week. I say likely because of the NFLPA’s filing of an injunction to prevent the suspension so that Elliott’s legal team could fight the suspension further. This situation looks like it is far from over folks.

In other news, due to Hurricane Irma barreling towards the Miami area, the NFL decided to postpone the Miami-Tampa Bay game until Week 11. This now means both teams will have their bye week now, and play 16 consecutive games. It is tough to say what the “right” call would have been in this difficult situation, but now each team will have to deal with the decision. Obviously, I send my best wishes to those that will be affected by Irma this weekend.

Now let’s get down to business, I have three more divisions to preview over the next two days. This column will be a look at the NFC South, and I will have my preview of the NFC East up a little later today. Tomorrow will feature another double dose of NFL coverage with my AFC West preview followed by my predictions for the season and my breakdown of the New England-Kansas City regular season opener.

So let’s talk about the NFC South, which could be my favorite division race of the season. The big question with this division is whether or not we will see a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance from a NFC South team? Atlanta returns with all of their key players in tact, and a few improvements on defense. Tampa Bay has been getting a lot of love for their offseason moves and could be a team on the rise. Carolina is healthy but we still don’t know a lot of how some of the new parts will mesh together. Then there is New Orleans who could be stuck in neutral but still have Drew Brees running the show, which always gives them a fighting chance.

2017 should provide plenty of fireworks, so let’s jump right into the mix in your first installment of “No Huddle.”

Atlanta Falcons (last season 11-5)

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Putting the Super Bowl LI loss behind them will be the key to a return to the postseason for the Falcons in 2017. Photo Credit: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

We all saw the collapse. We’ve all enjoyed the countless memes, jokes, etc. The Falcons have to put their heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl behind them. Fortunately, this team enters 2017 primed to put last season in the rearview mirror. While they might be the preseason favorites to win this division, they will have to battle history and improved competition to repeat in the NFC South.

While the Falcons have the same offensive unit this season, the question is how this offense will look without former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Atlanta put up video game numbers on offense last season, and with all the key components back this season you would expect this unit to still be dangerous.

Reigning MVP Matt Ryan looks poised to recapture the magic of last season. Julio Jones is still Julio Jones. I think the biggest thing to watch here is Devonta Freeman, who is now the league’s highest paid running back. Freeman is the perfect complement to the passing game with his elusiveness, and is fully capable of doing damage himself out of the backfield. It will be very interesting to see how new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian uses all of the pieces at his disposal. Sarkisian has been given the keys to a Ferrari, so to speak.

Everyone knows about the Atlanta offense, but it was the defense that really turned some heads down the stretch last season. Head coach Dan Quinn is clearly trying to emulate the Legion of Boom formula and the contributions from his young players were very encouraging. This is a unit that finished second in the league in net yards allowed per game and two key additions could really elevate this defense in 2017.

Atlanta signed defensive tackle Dontari Poe in the offseason to anchor the interior of the defensive line. Then the Falcons drafted edge-rusher Takarrist McKinley to play opposite Vic Beasley. The back seven (linebackers/secondary) played extremely fast, and now with an improved defensive line the feeling here is that this defense can compensate for any potential drop-off from the offense.

Now will there be a Super Bowl hangover? Unfortunately, history points to that being a likely scenario, but the pieces are in place for Atlanta to buck this trend. They are in the driver’s seat to win this division and a playoff berth is definitely in the cards at the very least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (last season: 9-7)

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The path to the postseason in Tampa Bay rests on the shoulders of Jameis Winston. Photo Credit: Getty Images

No team in the league, aside from New England, is coming into the season with more hype than Tampa Bay. As the subject of HBO’s Hard Knocks we got an in-depth look at the Bucs as they prepared for a pivotal season. Key additions could be the catalyst in turning a team that was on the outside looking in last season to a dark horse to win the NFC.

We’ll start on the offensive side of the ball where quarterback Jameis Winston has to be happy with the improvements made on this side of the ball. A multitude of injuries reduced this offense to Winston, Mike Evans, and occasionally Cameron Brate. Guess what? They were still pretty good at times. This offense has the makings of a complete and dangerous unit in 2017.

Football isn’t a one-man game, but one player can change your fortunes. DeSean Jackson joining the Bucs could be a major catalyst in the progression of this offense. Jackson is still a very productive receiver and has the ability to take the top off of opposing defenses, something this offense has sorely needed. More importantly, Jackson will prevent defenses from focusing solely on Evans.

To complete this offense, they will need a running game. They will start the year with Jaquizz Rodgers in the lead role until Doug Martin serves the final three games of his suspension. After that the sky could be the limit here because Martin looked incredible this preseason and showed flashes of his 2015 form.

While the sky could be the limit, this offense will only go as far as Winston can take them. The biggest concern for Winston is the turnovers. Winston has a tendency to get greedy and force balls into some really bad spots, especially near the goal line. If he can produce a stat line that resembles 30+ touchdowns and about 10 interceptions, Tampa Bay will be very good shape.

You might not have realized this, but Tampa Bay’s defense was actually really good at times last season. During a stretch of games from Weeks 10-14, the Bucs defense averaged 12.8 points allowed. That is the ceiling for this defense, but sustaining that type of dominance is easier said than done.

The defensive core is solid with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy leading the way with linebackers Levonte David and Kwon Alexander behind him. If there was one spot where this defense was vulnerable though, you have to look at the secondary. However, a recent addition could provide a huge boost at the back end of this defense.

Three-time Pro Bowl safety T.J. Ward was one of the shocking cuts last weekend, but he quickly made his way to Tampa Bay to join the Bucs. He will add a serious edge to this secondary. He might not be quite the star he was in Denver, but is still a much-needed upgrade for this defense.

Most experts might have been a year early on the Bucs last season, but there is some serious potential this year. The NFC wild card is chock-full of really good teams, but the Bucs could end up being the best of the bunch. I really think that Tampa Bay takes the leap into the postseason and will be a serious challenger for the NFC South crown.

New Orleans Saints (last season: 7-9)

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Figuring out how to use Adrian Peterson will be a major factor if the Saints hope to break a three-year run of 7-9 finishes. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

It has been the same story for the Saints for the past three seasons. A great offense led by Drew Brees is held back by an anemic defense and the Saints woefully finish 7-9. While you would think that the Saints would learn from their recent history, but it seems that isn’t the case. In fact New Orleans might have doubled down on their current formula.

Brees is still at the helm, which gives them an advantage over most teams they will face. However, he enters this season without two of his top receivers from last year. Brandin Cooks was traded to New England, and Willie Snead is serving a three-game suspension for a DUI arrest in the offseason. Michael Thomas will be relied upon to repeat his stellar rookie season from a year ago, and free agent signing Ted Ginn has a big role to fill with Cooks gone. Tight end Coby Fleener will have an expanded role as well, but will have to be a lot better than he was last season.

The big splash for the Saints in the offseason was the signing of running back Adrian Peterson. Unfortunately, we don’t know what that will mean for this offense just yet. Mark Ingram is still the “lead” back and finding a balance between both backs is a key factor to watch. If healthy, Peterson could be this season’s Legarrette Blount. Health aside, the real issue could be scheme fit as the Saints are primarily a shotgun offense a formation Peterson has rarely run out of in the NFL. Add to the mix rookie Alvin Kamara (seen as a Darren Sproles-type back), and there is a ton of uncertainty in this backfield.

It’s tough to imagine the Saints defense showing marked improvement on the defensive side of the football. Nothing they have seemed to do to improve this defense has worked over the past few years. They added Manti Te’o to bolster the linebackers, but it could be one step forward and two steps back. Nick Fairley suffered a potentially career-ending injury and first-round pick Delvin Breaux is currently injured. This defense looked good in the preseason, but let’s temper our expectations.

All signs are pointing to the Saints recent history to continue. Another 7-9 finish is likely despite the moves that New Orleans made in the offseason. Which begs to question what the future holds in the bayou?

Carolina Panthers (last season: 6-10)

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Can rookie Christian McCaffrey give the Panthers a boost back into the postseason? Photo Credit: Getty Images

Why should the Falcons be worried about a Super Bowl hangover? Just look at the Panthers in 2016. Roster turnover, poor play, and injuries effectively rendered last season a lost year for the Panthers. There is renewed hope that Carolina will return to playoff form in 2017 though.

Cam Newton underwent offseason shoulder surgery, which means we haven’t seen much of him in the preseason (one appearance and threw two passes). However, reports indicate that the former MVP is good to go this season. Newton lost his deep threat Ted Ginn in the offseason, but they drafted a player that could add a completely new dimension to this ground-and-pound offense.

Rookie Christian McCaffrey might be the key to unlocking the hidden potential of this offense. “CMC” looks like the perfect complement to what this offense has typically looked to do during the Newton-era. McCaffrey has the ability to run in-between the tackles but his real talent is his versatility. He can run the ball on first down, catch a ball out of the backfield on second down, line up in the slot on third down, and return the punt to start your next drive. This rookie has wowed in the preseason, and the hype has only intensified with yesterdays report that he will be a vital part of this offense with “his own playbook.”

We’ll have to see how this defense rebounds from a dismal 2016. Carolina really felt the loss of Josh Norman as this secondary was torched time and time again (see Julio Jones’ 300 yard game). Just when it looked like this secondary was getting its game together, this defense suffered its most devastating loss. Luke Kuechly suffered a scary concussion in Week 11 against the Saints and missed the rest of the season, raising many concerns about his future.

When healthy, this is a defense that is poised to jump back into the top-ten defenses in the league. However, if they are to lose Kuechly again it will be tough to see this defense reach that potential.

Carolina will certainly be a tough team this season, and will be in contention for a playoff spot. This offense could be really fun to watch and a nightmare to gameplan against. It’s the defense seemingly hanging on by a thread that has me worried about their playoff hopes in a deep NFC.

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for my NFC East preview which will be up tonight. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney, subscribe to Shooting the Moon on WordPress, and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

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