So that was a weird, but great, week in the NFL. The finishes were incredible, and the surprises never stopped. Week 3 is a reminder that the only thing for sure in the NFL is that nothing is for sure. Don’t believe me? Just check out this little nugget. In Week 2, the favorites in Las Vegas were 11-5 straight up (no spread) and the books got crushed Sunday afternoon against the spread. This week it was all about the underdogs where ten of the 13 Sunday afternoon underdogs covered the spread with many of them winning outright. In total, the underdogs went 9-7 straight up.

In a bubble, it is weeks like this that remind us why the NFL is the golden goose of professional sports. You just never know what will happen on a week-to-week basis. Another example of that uncertainty is the state of the undefeated teams this season. After three weeks a year ago there were five teams without a blemish on their record. This year, only two teams have made it through the first three weeks without a loss.

Now you are probably saying to yourself, “Moon, you are trying to tell me that we didn’t really learn anything this week.” In truth, while we had some thoughts and theories challenged, there is still plenty to glean coming out of Week 3. Let’s take a look at some of the things we learned.

1) The Chiefs Have Staying Power

It wasn’t pretty, but the Chiefs picked up a nice road win against the Chargers this week. Kansas City played to more of the style we have come accustomed to seeing during the Alex Smith-era. Use a good defense and the running game to control the pace. Then mix in some calculated shots in the passing game, and walk away with a W.

We all kind of figured that the Chiefs weren’t going to try and light people up every week. That just isn’t who this team is, especially one that is coached by Andy Reid. However, through three weeks we have seen the Chiefs play three very different games and they found a way to win them all.

Week 1, they found themselves in a shootout on the road against the defending champs. Kansas City won in a rout. Week 2, the Chiefs overcame an early deficit against a tough opponent at home. Eventually, they wore down the Eagles and capitalized on key opportunities to get the win. This week, control the game from the get-go on the road in a divisional game and win somewhat comfortably.

Kansas City is clearly one of the league’s best teams right now and seeing them win in different ways is a good sign for the tougher games later this season. This is an early mark of a championship contender. Plus, we have seen them get punched in the mouth early in games, recover and overcome. Yes, it is still September, but these are performances that give you the feeling that this is a team that can do this in January as well.

2) Houston May Finally Have a Quarterback

There are no moral victories in the NFL, but in a losing effort against the Patriots, the Texans may have found out something very important about themselves. DeShaun Watson is the right quarterback for this team.

At 1-2, this is very important for a team that should be in contention for a playoff spot. They have dug themselves in an early hole. But the performance of Watson on Sunday has to make Houston feel a little better about their chances to right the ship. A rookie quarterback has never won against Bill Belichick in Foxboro, but Watson had the Texans mere seconds away from securing a massive upset.

Now there is still a lot of room to improve. Watson has to keep progressing, but clearly he gives them a better chance to win than most of us thought. His ability to make plays on the moves is crucial with the issues on the offensive line. While Watson still needs to learn how to read defenses and get past his first read, there is a solid base to build off so far.

Houston’s defense will need to play more to the level we know that they can play at to help the rookie. They will also need to figure out this running game as well. Lamar Miller hasn’t been great, and rookie D’Onta Foreman is emerging as a player in this offense.

There is a long climb to get back into the hunt, but Houston is in a good position right now with their rookie quarterback flashing some serious potential.

3) Isn’t Parity Fun?

We come full circle with today’s “What We Learned” column. The biggest reason for the huge shift from Week 2 to Week 3 is the parity across the league. More than the past couple of seasons, the gap between the teams at the top, the teams in the middle, and the teams at the bottom of the league isn’t all that big.

The Jets dominated the Dolphins, Tennessee impressed against Seattle, and Washington bullied Oakland. Those are just a few examples from this weekend, but it illustrated the original point here. Teams like New England, Kansas City, and Green Bay are great teams but the teams at the top aren’t immune to the occasional upset or random test.

This is an “Any Given Sunday” league, folks. If anything, Week 3 was a big reminder of that.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my NFL power rankings heading into Week 4. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Here we go folks, Week 3 of the NFL is here. Granted, the NFL is certainly testing our willingness to watch these Thursday night games. This week, we get our annual Thursday meeting between the Rams and the 49ers to kick things off. We also get the first London game of the season this Sunday, which means MORNING FOOTBALL!

Yes, Sunday will be a 14-hour marathon of NFL action. So make sure to get your fantasy lineups set, a big pot of coffee made, and find a comfy seat. Hopefully that means we get a solid day of games. Before we get to tonight’s game and my picks for the week, let’s talk about a couple of the best games on Sunday.

The best game that we haven’t talked about this week could be Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota. Now I’m on record with my belief that Atlanta-Detroit is the game of the week, but TB-Minnesota has the potential to steal the show. That would mean Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford plays though.

This is a game for the fans that enjoy the strategy of the game. Both teams have tough defenses, and the offenses have different ways to move the football. Dirk Koetter and Mike Zimmer will really be earning their paychecks for winning this game. Each team has playoff aspirations and with a potentially deep Wild Card race at the end of the year. These are the early season games that end up impacting the postseason race.

For Tampa Bay, this type of matchup is why you went out and signing DeSean Jackson. DJax’s presence on the field means that Minnesota likely cannot have shutdown corner Xavier Rhodes shadow Mike Evans all day. That means Jameis Winston will need to show poise and the ability to read the field. One of his top two targets will have a mismatch, but Winston has to recognize that. A poor read could mean Minnesota safety Harrison Smith interceptions.

Minnesota desperately needs Bradford back on the field this week. Without him this offense was dead on arrival against Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay arguably could have the better defensive front than the Steelers. Case Keenum is what he is, a backup quarterback. As a starter, he doesn’t even rank in the top-32 statistically in key QB stats, more specifically completion percentage. Bradford completes nearly 70 percent of his passes while Keenum hovers around 55-60 percent on a good day.

It doesn’t help that whichever quarterback plays in this game could be under fire a lot in this game as well. Minnesota upgraded the offensive line, but this is another test of how improved this line actually is. Tampa Bay’s defensive front is fierce led by Gerald McCoy. We all saw the amount of pressure they generated last week against Chicago. Keenum in the game could mean this defensive line can pin their ears back and dominate. Bradford in the game means that the Vikings have more options and can create a more balanced plan to keep this defense out of attack mode.

Today’s practice report did have Bradford as a limited participant, which is a step in the right direction. His knee injury looks like its lingering, but there is still the hope he is able to go on Sunday. If that is the case, we are looking at a fantastic matchup between NFC playoff hopefuls.

Now we turn our attention to the Sunday night game between Oakland and Washington. It’s a very intriguing matchup that will hopefully live up to the billing of the primetime spotlight. There is not really a clash of styles or anything like that, just two solid offenses going up against defenses that leave something to be desired.

We haven’t quite seen the same run and gun offense from Oakland that we saw last season, but this is a more effective style they are playing. The addition of Marshawn Lynch has meant the Raiders are shifting towards a more power-oriented style. This allows Derek Carr and this passing game to pick their spots more judiciously, instead of having to force the ball downfield.

Washington is still trying to find their offensive rhythm, but last week finally got the running game going against the Rams. Rob Kelley, Chris Thompson, and Samaje Perine all ran well against that tough defensive line from Los Angeles. They will have a chance to replicate and improve upon that success from a week ago. Washington might need to do that without Kelley though because he is currently recovered from a non-displaced rib fracture. Perine and Thompson should be able to pick up the slack though.

The Redskins will need to get this passing game going though. Terelle Pryor has been a non-factor thus far and doesn’t seem to be on the same page with Kirk Cousins. Adding to pressure to that pair getting it together is the injury to Jordan Reed, who might miss this game. Oakland is the type of defense where they can solve some of those offensive issues.

Overall, you have to give Oakland the edge in this game. They are a much better team on the road than they are at home. Plus the primetime slot is less of a disadvantage for the West coast team.

Okay, let’s quickly talk about tonight’s matchup between the Rams and 49ers. It’s tough to get a read on this one, mostly because these teams don’t play consistently one way or the other. That being said, we might be in for a slog similar to last week.

The Rams should have the advantage in this game despite being the road team tonight. They have the more talented offense and a much better defense than the Niners. Turnovers could be plentiful in this game as well. This won’t be pretty but I’ll take the Rams (-3) to start Week 3.

As for the rest of my ATS picks this week, I think that we could be turning the corner here. Week 1 I went under .500, and last week I improved to .500. Let’s keep the good momentum going though. Here are my ATS picks for Week 3 (Winners in Bold)

Last Week: 8-8-0         2017 Season: 13-17-1

9:30 a.m. kickoff (London)

Baltimore (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville

1:00 p.m. kickoff

NY Giants vs. Philadelphia (-6)

Denver (-3) vs. Buffalo

New Orleans vs. Carolina (-5.5)

Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Chicago

Atlanta (-3) vs. Detroit

Cleveland (-1.5) vs. Indianapolis

Tampa Bay (+1.5) vs. Minnesota

Houston (-13.5) vs. New England

Miami (-6.5) vs. NY Jets

 

4:05/4:25 p.m. kickoff

Seattle (+2.5) vs. Tennessee

Cincinnati vs. Green Bay (-9)

Kansas City (-3) vs. LA Chargers

 

Sunday Night Football

Oakland (-3) vs. Washington

That’s it for me this week. I’ll be out covering sports and other events for SNJ Today this weekend. I’ll be back on Monday with “No Huddle.” Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page.

It’s hump day, which means the typical slow news day in the NFL. This gives us a chance to take a breather from the constant stream of news and notes. With that in mind, we get the opportunity to size up all 32 teams in the NFL as we head into Week 3.

As it stands, ten teams are through the first two weeks unblemished if you include the Bucs and Dolphins at 1-0. We know at least one team will take their first loss this week as the Falcons and Lions meet in a matchup of two 2-0 teams. We are still learning who is for real, and injuries are beginning to pile up across the league. Two games is a small sample size, but we do have a decent idea of what the top tier of the league looks like for now. Let’s take a look at the top five teams heading into Week 3 in today’s “No Huddle.”

1) Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) – Last Week: 2

For a second consecutive week, there is a new team atop the power rankings. While there was a slight hesitation last week to put the Chiefs on top, there is no denying their claim to the top spot this week. In KC’s first game without safety Eric Berry, this defense didn’t miss a beat against Philadelphia. While there are tougher matchups ahead, it’s safe to say that this is the best team in the league right now.

Sticking with the defense for right now, they have been solid so far. They have given up a decent amount of yardage through two games, but they have made plays when it has counted. More importantly, this pass rush has already produced nine sacks. Considering this defense only had 18 sacks last season, a healthy Justin Houston is making a big difference already. One can only imagine how lethal this defensive front will be once Tamba Hali returns from his injury.

You can’t talk about this offense without mentioning rookie sensation Kareem Hunt. While he didn’t match the 247 all-purpose yards from the opener, Hunt racked up another 109 all-purpose yards and two more touchdowns. It would be insane to think that he could reach the 40 touchdowns he is on pace to score, but there is no doubt the Chiefs struck gold with the third round pick out of Toledo.

Week 3 brings the first divisional test for Kansas City as they hit the West Coast to face the Chargers.

2) New England Patriots (1-1) – Last Week: 3

Tom Brady and the Patriots got back on track in Week 2, alleviating some of the early concerns about this football team. Photo Credit: USA Today Sports

Anyone that thought for a second that Tom Brady was “done” after Week 1 can go look at the tape from last Sunday for his or her answer. The Patriots had no problem against the Saints, putting up 30 points in the first half before coasting to a 36-20 win.

The injury bug has not been kind to the defending champs so far this season, but it looks like they dodged a bullet with Rob Gronkowski not suffering a serious injury. Gronk left Sunday’s game with a groin injury, but the Patriots are saying that it is “nothing serious.” That is great to hear because Gronk was dominating the Saints before the injury occurred.

The Pats got a terrific performance from Super Bowl hero James White, as he racked up eight catches for 85 yards out of the backfield. Clearly New England is going to rely on him to keep this passing game going with the numerous injuries to their receivers. We are also waiting to see when offseason acquisition Brandin Cooks finally gets going as well. For now, White and Chris Hogan will be the primary targets not named Gronk.

This defense might get a lift this week with the return of Dont’a Hightower. We all saw how much this defense missed him in the opener, but New England’s defense getting its top pass rusher back is a big boost with the Texans coming into town.

3) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) – Last Week: Watch List

The Steelers were rolling in their home opener and find themselves back in the top five this week. Photo Credit: Associated Press

Steel City can breathe a sigh of relief. Week 1’s close call against the Browns looks like an aberration compared to the dominant Week 2 win over the Vikings. Minnesota looked like a completely different team without Sam Bradford, but that didn’t mean the Steelers were throwing them a pity party. Instead, Pittsburgh controlled the game from start to finish, never letting the Vikings have a legitimate shot at scoring a big upset.

We are still waiting for this offense to finally explode for a monster day on the stat sheet, but this was a solid performance. Big Ben threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns, and Le’Veon Bell rushed for 87 yards. Minnesota is a tough defense to produce against so chalk this performance up as a positive. It’s rare that anyone can really light the Vikings defense up at full strength.

This was going to be the first test for this defense, but no Bradford meant Case Keenum stepped in. As expected, the Steelers shut down this offense for the most part. The eye test is saying that this defense has improved, but we still need to see them against an explosive offense with their starting quarterback playing.

That won’t be the case this week as the Steelers head to Chicago to face off with the Bears. If last week was any indication, the Bears shouldn’t pose much of a threat to this defense. Now we will need to see this offense look sharp on the road, something they have struggled doing in recent years. However, there is little reason to think that the Steelers will improve to 3-0 on Sunday.

4) Atlanta Falcons (2-0) – Last Week: Watch List

The Falcons aced their first test of the season with a big win in their home opener. Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated

For now we can put the Super Bowl hangover talk on the backburner for the Falcons. Atlanta played well against the Packers this week and are now riding a three game winning streak against Green Bay. That is a nice feather in the cap for a team that can ill afford to lose any confidence as they continue to put the Super Bowl collapse in the rearview mirror.

We talked a lot about the Falcons in yesterday’s “What We Learned” column, so let’s touch a little bit on their Week 3 game. Atlanta is heading north to face the Lions, in what has the potential to be a shootout. The biggest key could be that this game will be played inside a dome, something the Falcons do very well. Since the start of last season, the Falcons are 9-3 playing indoors. The fast track provided by a dome allows the Atlanta to use its team speed as a big advantage.

That is something that could pay huge dividends for the Atlanta defense, who will likely be facing the old, gun slinging version of Matthew Stafford. Detroit has been playing a much more balanced offense, but they may not have that choice as Atlanta will likely be playing with the lead.

This should be one of the more exciting games of the week with plenty of fantasy football implications.

5) Denver Broncos (2-0) – Last Week: Watch List

The most impressive performance of Week 2 was turned in by the Denver Broncos, which lands them in the top five for this week. Denver manhandled the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday 42-17. This was the type of performance that put the Broncos back on the Super Bowl radar moving forward.

While we would usually do the whole “we know how good this defense is” routine, Denver’s defense earned some serious love this week. When you shut down the league’s most efficient offense in dominant fashion, you get people talking. There is no doubt that Denver has the league’s best defense right now. The front-seven held Ezekiel Elliott to just eight yards rushing, and Von Miller notched both of Denver’s sacks on the day. Then the “No Fly Zone” added two pick-sixes, one of those a 100-yarder. This defense is a legit buzz saw for any offense, especially those that rank inside the top-ten of the league.

We’ll continue the love fest over on the offensive side of the ball. Trevor Siemian is growing into an effective quarterback, and Mike McCoy’s gameplans have been terrific thus far. CJ Anderson looks great running the football, and even Jamaal Charles has been solid as a change of pace runner. This offense was the big question mark heading into this season, but so far so good.

Denver looks like one of the most complete football teams so far this season, which is bad news for the rest of the league. This week the Broncos will head to upstate New York to face the Buffalo Bills.

Watch List: Oakland (2-0), Green Bay (1-1), Carolina (2-0), Baltimore (2-0), Tampa Bay (1-0)

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with game previews for Week 3, including Thursday Night Football. I’ll also have all of my ATS picks for the week as well. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

So how about Week 2? Certainly was a little better than the ho-hum opening week of the season. However, we are still waiting for that week that reminds us why we all love the NFL so much. But hey, its still football though. It’s Tuesday so that means its time to take one chance to digest the previous week before we move on to Week 3. So this begs the question, what did we learn from Week 2?

The AFC West is the League’s Best Division

While this is probably filed under the “obvious” folder, you can’t deny that most teams don’t want to see anyone from the AFC West right now. This is a division that boasts three of the league’s eight 2-0 teams and the 0-2 team is not one to overlook either (even if they can’t get out of their own way).

The Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders picked up in 2017 pretty much where they left off from a year ago. All three teams have the pieces to contend this season, and can potentially dominate any game. While most of us expected the Chiefs and Raiders to look good right out of the gates, it’s the Broncos that might be the most impressive of the three.

We all knew that Denver’s defense would be among the league’s best once again but it’s the vastly improved play by Trevor Siemian that is really turning heads. Yes, this team did win a Super Bowl with sub-par quarterback play, but this team has needed improvement at the league’s most important position. Siemian has been tremendous so far posting a 106.9 quarterback rating through the first two games. A lot of credit has to go to offensive coordinator Mike McCoy for getting the most out of his young quarterback thus far.

Kansas City’s young playmakers and a suddenly rejuvenated Alex Smith have the Chiefs on the cusp of being the best team in football. You have to love the creativity of Andy Reid so far with his play calling. All three of his playmakers are getting the ball with optimal opportunities to score on any given down whether it’s a shot play, a shovel pass, or a simple draw play. A year ago this offense seemed pretty vanilla even when Tyreek Hill emerged midseason. However it seems the addition of running back Kareem Hunt has sparked a much-needed change in philosophy.

Oakland is still mostly the same team from last season, but the efficient play has been a great thing to see so far. Marshawn Lynch looks like the player we saw terrorize opposing front-sevens for years in Seattle. It’s taken pressure off of Derek Carr and this passing offense to produce in mass quantity. Lynch’s presence seems to have made this offense that much more dangerous, especially in the redzone. Opposing defenses can only guess where the ball is going to end up. Lynch could power it in, or Carr checks to a pass to Michael Crabtree or Amari Cooper. That is huge for a team that still has big question marks for a defense that hasn’t been tested (or exposed) yet.

Then there are the Los Angeles Chargers. Philip Rivers must be living in his own personal hell right now. LA has been right there at the end of both games to start this season but have come up short. Questionable decisions and poor kicking in the clutch have doomed the Chargers, who are sitting in the precarious position provided by starting 0-2. This team is now 1-10 in games decided by seven or less points dating back to last season. However, this is a team with a solid defense and an offense that can move the ball. You can’t sleep on the Chargers even if they will find a way to lose late. This is a team that could easily be 2-0, so you would hope that they find their groove in the clutch at some point.

 Nothing but the Blues for Big Blue

Playing in the biggest television market in the country certainly keeps a lot of eyeballs on you in New York. Unfortunately for the Giants, they might want some people to starting looking away. Two primetime games have put the Giants major problems on display for the entire country. Starting 0-2 isn’t good, but the way in which the Giants have gotten there is startling.

As I wrote last week, this offensive line is bad. Now we can say its virtually non-existent after surrendering another five sacks to the Lions last night. Eli Manning has no time to throw and the Giants can’t run the football either. Week 1 could be chocked up to Odell Beckham being out and the Cowboys selling out to pressure Manning. This week doesn’t offer the same benefit of the doubt. It’s no surprise that they have only scored 13 points in two games.

However, now things are getting testy in the Big Apple. Coach Ben McAdoo called out his quarterback in his postgame press conference regarding a key delay of game penalty on a fourth-and-goal. That’s not a good look especially when you have the pack of hyenas known as the New York media dissecting your every move and statement.

So far the Giants are looking like lambs to the slaughter, and it will be interesting to see how this gets fixed. Things could get even worse if the Eagles embarrass the Giants this week.

No Hangover in Atlanta?

Every year one of the biggest storylines inevitably ends up being whether the losing team in the Super Bowl takes a big step backwards. So far that is far from the case for the Atlanta Falcons. Coming into Week 2, there was some trepidation with this team as they squeaked by the Bears in the opener. Many of those doubts were silenced on Sunday night though. Atlanta continued their recent run of success against the Green Bay Packers, soundly defeating them 34-23 in a NFC title game rematch.

Matt Ryan and this offense haven’t lost a step in 2017. This defense is still coming along, but will now be without its top pass rusher, Vic Beasley, for at least a month. Luckily for Dan Quinn’s team, this offense is perfectly capable of masking any defensive issues for a while. We’ll get our definitive answer to that question this week when the Falcons head north to face the Lions.

Looking ahead though, the Falcons have a legit shot to start 5-0 before facing the Patriots in Foxboro. The real answer to the hangover question likely won’t be answered until November when the schedule becomes incredibly difficult for the defending NFC champions.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with another edition of “No Huddle” to update my power rankings heading into Week 3. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Good morning everyone! I hope you have all been enjoying your weekend so far. It’s another NFL Sunday so it’s time for a literal “No Huddle” to get your day started. That means quick previews of the day’s best games and my picks against the spread.

Unfortunately, Thursday didn’t exactly leave us a whole lot to talk about. The game boiled down to a handful of meaningful plays and was pretty hard to watch at times. Houston picked up a huge win 13-9 over Cincinnati. The Texans improved to 1-1 but still have plenty of questions surrounding their offense moving forward. Cincinnati on the other hand, they are quickly heading towards the brink of oblivion at 0-2 with talks of a “near mutiny” on head coach Marvin Lewis. Either way, if you didn’t watch the game, you didn’t miss much.

Now let’s move on to today’s action, which promises to be quite the day in the NFL. Numerous games have some serious potential, and could make for a white-hot day on the Redzone channel. New England-New Orleans promises to be a scoring fiesta along with the Sunday night matchup between Atlanta and Green Bay. Minnesota and Pittsburgh will square off in a meeting of two potential NFL heavyweights. Even the Philadelphia-Kansas City game has provided a certain level of intrigue heading into kickoff. We can’t talk about all of these games though so we will focus on the two best matchups on-paper. Apologies for those looking for a breakdown of the Raiders and Jets games.

All joking aside, our first game on the slate could possibly the best of the day. Minnesota travels to Pittsburgh for a tremendous strength on strength clash during the 1:00 p.m. window of games. The clear matchup to watch here is the high-powered Pittsburgh offense versus the vaunted Minnesota defense. It’s a classic battle between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. This will be a chess match to see how Minnesota tries to slow down a Pittsburgh offense that is lethal in the friendly confines of Heinz Field.

To be more specific, Ben Roethlisberger is nearly unstoppable at home. Last season his completion percentage was ten percent better at home than on the road. Big Ben also threw nearly 75 percent of his 29 touchdowns at home last season. Last week we saw that this offense isn’t nearly as sharp on the road. As a counter, the Vikings were actually a better road defense by the numbers last season.

However, that may not be much of a concern for anyone if Sam Bradford cannot play in this game. Bradford is dealing with a knee injury and will be a game-time decision, which may even be decided by the time you read this piece. This would be a huge loss for the Vikings because this offense looked great on Monday night against New Orleans.

If Bradford is able to play, this is the type of game that will come down to the waning moments. It should be an extremely hard fought games and a true slobber knocker.

Let’s move onto tonight’s colossal rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game between the Falcons and the Packers. It will be quite the scene in Atlanta tonight as the Falcons “open” Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The NBC ads for this game certainly had the right idea by asking the crew in Atlanta to make sure the scoreboard works.

Despite the fact that both teams are touting improved defenses, they will be facing one of the best offenses in the league respectively. Last season saw a pair of games go to the Falcons, 33-32 in Week 8 and 44-21 in the NFC title game. Revenge will certainly be on the minds of the Packers heading into this big early-season matchup.

Since most of us all pretty much know about the many stars in this games (Rodgers, Ryan, Nelson, Jones, Freeman, Adams) let’s talk about two guys who could have a big impact on this game. Packers running back Ty Montgomery could be in line for a big day on the stat sheet. The converted wide receiver may have a huge role in the passing game as the Falcons are content to allow short passes to running backs. Atlanta is not a shutdown defense, but will instead allow you to hit shorter plays and rally to the football using their team speed. Don’t be surprised to hear Montgomery’s name early and often.

The other player that could have a big day in this game is Falcons receiver Mohamed Sanu. Considering the Packers would rather not relive another drubbing by Julio Jones, coverage may allow Sanu to run free underneath from the slot. Sanu played a huge role in Atlanta’s Week 8 win a year ago, setting a career-high in receiving yards. With the bevy of weapons at Matt Ryan’s disposal, process of elimination could leave Sanu as his go-to guy tonight.

As for the outcome of the game, its tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers but you would have to think that Atlanta has a slight edge heading into this big matchup. This game will more likely resemble the 33-32 thriller that we saw during the regular season where it came down to the final possession.

Okay now on to my picks for the week. I know what you’re probably saying, “Moon, what the hell? You burned me last week.” Everyone has bad weeks, and while my 5-9-1 record wasn’t a total disaster, I’ll chalk that up to just that, a bad week. Week 2 is already off to a better start with my winning Houston pick. So let’s build on those positive vibe and make this week a winner for us. Here are my ATS picks for Week 2 (Winners in Bold).

This Week: 1-0        Last Week: 5-9-1     2017 Season: 6-9-1

1:00 p.m. kickoff

Philadelphia (+5.5) vs. Kansas City

Cleveland vs. Baltimore (-7.5)

Buffalo vs. Carolina (-7)

Arizona (-7) vs. Indianapolis

Tennessee (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville

New England (-6.5) vs. New Orleans

Minnesota (+6.5) vs. Pittsburgh

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay (-6.5)

 

4:05/4:25 p.m. kickoff

Miami (+3.5) vs. LA Chargers

NY Jets vs. Oakland (-13.5)

Dallas (-2.5) vs. Denver

San Francisco vs. Seattle (-14)

Washington vs. LA Rams (-2.5)

 

Sunday Night Football 

Green Bay (+3) vs. Atlanta

Enjoy all of the action today. I’ll be back tomorrow to recap Week 2 and preview Monday Night Football. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Happy Thursday folks! It was a relatively slow news week in the NFL so here we are ready for Week 2 to get going tonight. While last week we got the best game of the week on Thursday, I’m not too keen on this matchup being “must-see TV.” We’ll get to the matchup a little later on. First we have to try and figure out which teams reside in the top-five in the league.

Week 1 was a mixed bag. In fact aside from a couple of teams, no one really put their best foot forward. Even the team that looked the best is dealing with a devastating injury now. Monday night’s games helped a little bit but ultimately the top spot in this week’s power rankings is wide open. Let’s take a quick look at how things shook out this week.

1) Green Bay Packers (1-0)

With a week like we just went through, go with the healthiest team with the best quarterback coming off a big win. That means, for at least this week, the Green Bay Packers hold the top spot in my power rankings. It was a hard fought win, but the Packers got the job done against a tough opponent.

Aaron Rodgers was able to take advantage of a few miscues by the Seahawks and turn them into touchdowns. In other words, it was just another day at the office for the former-MVP. This wasn’t a dominant performance, but controlling the game against a Super Bowl contender is always something to build on.

There are still some questions regarding this defense though. Yes, they looked pretty solid on Sunday. However, you can make the argument that performance had more to do with the problems of Seattle’s offense. The one thing we know for sure is that defensive coordinator Dom Capers is going to rely on pressure with his defense. Against an offensive line like the Seahawks, that is going to work a lot of the time. We’re going to get a crash course on how this defense really stacks up this week when Green Bay travels to face Atlanta in a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game.

2) Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

 

If Kansas City didn’t lose All-Pro safety Eric Berry for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, the Chiefs would have been number one. Aside from that injury, the Chiefs put in the most impressive performance of the week, taking down the defending champs on the road.

This offense ditched its conservative reputation and showed an aggressiveness we haven’t seen from this team. Creativity kept the Patriots guessing, which allowed for the Kansas City playmakers to hit big plays throughout the second half of the opener. Alex Smith looked like he is trying to prevent a repeat of the end of his tenure in San Francisco. Also the Chiefs may have found another star in the form of rookie Kareem Hunt, who set a record for the most all-purpose yards in an NFL debut.

Kansas City looked great in that second half on defense, but we will see how this unit responds to the loss of Berry. He made a lot of the key plays in that game and shut down Rob Gronkowski. That means this front-seven will have to step up and lead this defense. It’s a good thing that Justin Houston looked like he has fully recovered from an injury-riddled 2016 season.

A teacher versus student matchup is on tap for the Chiefs this week as Andy Reid squares off with former offensive coordinator Doug Pederson. Philadelphia and Kansas City should be one of the better matchups of Week 2.

3) New England Patriots (0-1)

After a disappointing opener that exposed more problems than anyone expected from New England, its a good thing they have this guy to figure it out. Photo Credit: Getty Images

Let’s not get too crazy yet, one loss isn’t the end of the world for the defending champs. This is still Brady and Belichick we are talking about here. We all know that they will right the ship before long.

The offense did not look crisp in the opener, but still showed signs of potential. There are a ton of new pieces that are still learning this complex system and injuries are forcing guys to adjust on the fly. Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan will see their roles expand due to the loss of Julian Edelman and the uncertainty surrounding Danny Amendola. Don’t be shocked if James White or Dion Lewis also see a bigger role in this passing game as well. Gronk won’t have an All-Pro safety on him all game either. This offense will be just fine.

There are some serious concerns with this defense though specifically up front. Once Dont’a Hightower left the opener with a sprained MCL, there was a noticeable drop-off in the effectiveness of this front-seven. It didn’t help that backup Curtis Marsh had only been with the team for five days before getting thrust into action. A dominant pass-rush has never been this team’s calling card, but Hightower’s status going forward is crucial.

Regardless, we all know that the Patriots will figure things out one way or another. They will have a chance to rebound this week against the Saints, in what has the makings of a shootout.

4) Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

Oh boy, the Vikings looked great on Monday night. The defense was dominant and this offense was explosive. This was a great start for a team that has a legitimate shot to be a contender this season.

I would be lying if I said we all weren’t blown away by the performance of Sam Bradford. Sammy Sleeves looked like “captain checkdown” early in the game, but unleashed some big throws later in the night. Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen looked like an effective receiving duo, allowing Bradford to attack down the field. Minnesota’s passing game will continue to improve as the season progresses.

The new-look offensive line was a real breath of fresh air for the Vikings. They gave Bradford time to hit the intermediate routes, and more importantly, opened up big holes for rookie Dalvin Cook to run wild. Things are looking great for this offense so far.

Defensively, we didn’t learn anything new about the Vikings. They looked like one of the best defenses in the league, but they have a big test this week. Minnesota heads to Pittsburgh in what should be the best game of the Sunday afternoon slate.

5) Oakland Raiders (1-0)

A big road win for the Raiders in Week 1 featured a solid return of Marshawn Lynch, but there is still a lot to learn about the Raiders moving forward. Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated

While it wasn’t quite the “game of the week” we were all expecting, the Oakland Raiders scored a big road win against Tennessee on Sunday. This offense will have better days ahead of them (possibly this week) as they adjust to a more balanced attack. If the Raiders can continue to harness the power running of “Beast Mode” Marshawn Lynch, most defenses are going to have big problems against Oakland.

The real story for Oakland coming out of Week 1 was the surprising performance put in by this defense. No one was really expecting much out of this unit, as they were looking like a bottom-five ranked defense again this season. However, they were able to hold the Titans to 16 points, which is about the best you could possibly hope for if you are Jack Del Rio.

There are no guarantees in the NFL, but the Raiders have a great chance to improve to 2-0 this week at home against the Jets.

Watch List: Dallas (1-0), Atlanta (1-0), Pittsburgh (1-0), Philadelphia (1-0), Seattle (0-1), Tampa Bay (0-0)

Texans vs. Bengals (TNF Preview)

Now we look ahead to the Week 2, which gets started tonight with the Bengals and the Texans on Thursday Night Football. Admittedly, there is not a ton to get excited about as both teams are coming off of embarrassing losses. If you are looking for a high-scoring affair, this might not be the game for you.

Andy Dalton will be looking to put his four interception Week 1 performance behind him, while the Texans are turning to rookie DeShaun Watson to get a road win. Neither team can afford to fall to 0-2.

Houston’s defense gives the Texans the best chance to score a win in this game. They will have to create havoc and force Dalton into poor decisions. With a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road, a defensive game is the best route to victory here.

The Bengals will have the advantage of playing at home four days removed from their regular season opener. That could be a big difference maker as it looks like almost half of the Houston roster ended up on the injury report this week. The Bengals will have to be the team that controls the football, and even try to play from ahead. Allowing the Texans to hang around in a tie ball game could be a quick way to lose this game.

To reiterate my original point about this game, it’s going to be ugly. This has the makings of a 12-9 final score written all over it. Both teams have their problems but the Bengals have health and home field. Cincinnati should win this game, however against the spread I’m going with Houston (+5.5).

That’s it for me. I’ll be back tomorrow with a preview of the rest of Week 2 and another set of picks ATS. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

There is nothing like waking up on a Monday and having basically a full slate of NFL action to review. If yesterday was Christmas, then today is more akin to New Year’s Day. You have a lot to talk about from the day before, and there are still a couple of football games to watch later on. Since yesterday wasn’t the sharpest day of football ever let’s stick to what we learned yesterday and we’ll finish up with previews for the Monday Night Football double-header.

Depending on how your team (or fantasy team) faired, yesterday was either really good or really bad. Either way there was a lot of sloppy football but that is to be expected since this was the first real game for everyone. However, there were plenty of lessons that we learned about a few teams in the NFL. No one is winning the Super Bowl in Week 1, but we all got a sense of where certain teams are in the hierarchy. Here are some of the things we learned from our first NFL Sunday of the season.

 1) The Giants, Seahawks, and Texans Won’t Be Able to Rely on Great Defense

Typically when you are talking good and bad, there always tends to be an “ugly” in the mix. The last thing these three potential playoff teams needed to realize yesterday was there was a big problem with their offensive lines. Each o-lines for New York, Seattle, and Houston looked downright ugly yesterday, leading to big losses for all three teams to open the season.

The entire country got a first-hand look at the biggest reason people were worried about the Giants this season. Without Odell Beckham to keep the Cowboys defense honest, New York got the kitchen sink thrown at its offensive line last night. It was no surprise that they folded like a house of cards. With no running game to speak of, the Giants were forced to just check down to the running backs to get anything going on early downs.

Even more alarming was the effect this offensive line had on Eli Manning. He might have two Super Bowl rings, but we were treated to “Bad Eli” last night due in large part to the failings of this offensive line. For example, in a key moment in the fourth quarter last night, Manning had a chance to find Brandon Marshall ALL ALONE on a crossing route. Instead of a game-changing touchdown, Manning short-armed the throw, leading to a poor throw behind Marshall and an incomplete pass.

There was something that really caught my attention last night and should illustrate just how bad this offense looked last night. It took the Giants almost two and a half quarters to get past their own 35-yard line. Yikes.

Seattle found themselves in a barnburner for much of yesterday’s big matchup against the Packers. Unfortunately, the writing was on the wall with how this game would inevitably play out for them. The Seahawks offense couldn’t get anything going for much of this game. Holding Aaron Rodgers to three points in a half on the road should mean good things for any team, unless you’re down 3-0.

Rodgers eventually got things going against the Legion of Boom. The same can’t be said for Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense. This offensive line eventually fell apart, giving us an all too familiar image of Wilson running for his life on passing plays. Last season the Seahawks were able to get by playing poorly on offense, but against top-tier opponents that doesn’t seem to be the case. It will be another season of trying to fix a problem they’ve known about for too long.

Houston got steamrolled by the Jacksonville defense in what many thought would be a huge emotional win for the Texans. The Jags defensive line, led by Calais Campbell, feasted on the porous Houston offensive line for a franchise record ten sacks. Texans coach Bill O’Brien may have wanted to let Tom Savage run this offense while rookie DeShaun Watson learned the ropes for a little bit, he quickly realized that it was time to throw Watson into the fire.

The rookie out of Clemson isn’t a seasoned vet yet, but his has the athletic ability to at least give this offense a chance. Savage, a traditional pocket-passer, never had a chance yesterday with his offensive line routinely collapsing around him. There is no word yet on whom the starter will be next week, but if yesterday was any indication it will be Watson who will literally need to learn on the run if Houston has any chance to right the ship on the offensive side of the ball.

2) The Top Spot in the League is Up For Grabs

New England’s shocking loss on Thursday opened a door for another team to assert themselves as a potential usurper to the throne. Kansas City would have gotten that nod, but a season-ending injury to Eric Berry might hurt them in the long run. So did anyone ascend on Sunday? Not really.

All 32 teams are far from perfect, but the only thing we can glean from the first week so far is that we still have a lot to learn about these teams. The word “impressive” is one that is lacking from the vocabulary for most experts today. No team really stood out and told us to “watch out for them.”

Green Bay looked good, but we don’t know how good this defense is just yet. Atlanta squeaked by a Chicago team that many expect to finish last in the NFC North. Oakland won a conservative game against Tennessee and Philadelphia won a sloppy game against Washington. Dallas took full advantage of New York’s offensive issues to win in pretty boring fashion but we still have questions about this defense going forward.

Two teams who no one expects to be there at the end turned in the performances that really turned heads. The LA Rams defense dominated a short-handed Colts offense, turning that game into a blowout quickly. Jared Goff just had to manage the game, leaving many of the real questions we have about him relatively unanswered. We already talked about the Jaguars, but what they did bordered on “impressive.” However, this allowed them to hide their biggest problem (Blake Bortles) and lost their most explosive offensive weapon (Allen Robinson).

Maybe one of the four teams we will see tonight will rise up and leave everyone around the league wondering “maybe this is the team to watch this season.”

Let’s Play Two (MNF Double-Header Preview)

 

One of my favorite things about Week 1 is that there are two games on Monday night. Double your pleasure, double your fun, am I right?

Our first game of the night brings a very intriguing clash at the site of Super Bowl LII. New Orleans brings its high-powered offense up north to take on the tough Minnesota Vikings. If we are being honest with each other, there is one aspect of the game we all are going to be watching for.

Drew Brees and this Saints offense will have their hands full with this stout Minnesota defense tonight. If it weren’t for an injury to Harrison Smith last season, this Vikings defense could have ranked as the best in the league. This will be an interesting battle tonight. Brees will have to be sharp because not only can Minnesota take the ball away, they have the ability to take the ball to the house as well.

Sean Payton is a smart guy, so look for the Saints to mix things up a little bit on offense. Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson should be leaned on to keep the Vikings honest. It will be interesting to see how the carries are split between these two though and how they are used. Ball control will be a key factor if the Saints want to get this season started off on the right foot.

The other thing I’m looking for in this game is how the Minnesota offense will look with Dalvin Cook as the lead back. Last season the Vikings clearly had issues running the ball without AP, but Cook has looked pretty good so far. It’s been a great week for the rookie running backs and we could be in for another solid performance from the class of 2017.

As for my pick tonight, give me the Vikings (-3) tonight. This defense is really good and I think this offense will surprise some people.

Now we turn to the nightcap between the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. Once again, we have a compelling matchup between the top units of each team. The Chargers have the pieces to be a great offensive team, but face potentially the best pass defense in the entire league.

Phillip Rivers has a bunch of fast receivers, who can turn a short catch into a long game. He also has a running back in Melvin Gordon who can do it all. Bad offensive line play has been a theme this week and Denver is not the team to have that problem against. Von Miller and this Broncos pass rush will devour any mistake that the opposing offense makes. Even if Rivers has time to throw, he will have to be careful because Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are the best cornerback tandem in the entire league. Expect this matchup to be a serious chess match all night long.

The Chargers will be able take some of the pressure off its offense if its defense steps up like many think it can. Joey Bosa is being seen as someone who can reach the status of Von Miller, and Melvin Ingram is a terrific pass rusher in his own right. They will have a prime opportunity to attack against an average Denver offensive line and keep the Chargers in control of this ball game.

In a game that could be dominated by defenses, you have to ask yourself where the difference maker is? Well, that could be the quarterback matchup between Rivers and Trevor Siemian. That should bode well for the Chargers to possibly score a big win to close out Week 1. So with that said I’ll take Los Angeles (+3) for my final pick of the week.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow to recap tonight’s action and reveal my first set of power rankings in the NFL. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

We were all expecting a statement to be made in Foxborough on Thursday night. No one outside of Kansas City could have expected to see that game play out like that. The Chiefs dismantled the Patriots in the second half to open the season with a 42-27 win over the defending champs. Alex Smith showed exactly why this is still his team, totally outperforming Tom Brady.

However, the real star of the game was Chiefs rookie Kareem Hunt. In one of the best debuts in recent memory, Hunt overcame a fumble on his first carry en route to 246 total yards and three touchdowns. An absolute monster night for the third round pick out of Toledo fueled the big upset.

There were two key moments that changed this game. New England marched right down the field on their first drive to open the game with a touchdown. The Pats had a chance to get a quick 14-0 lead following the Hunt fumble, but Eric Berry made a huge fourth down stop in the red zone to give the Chiefs life early on.

The second turning point came later in the night when New England linebacker Dont’a Hightower left the game with a knee injury. Once the New England defense lost Hightower, it was open season for Kansas City. Hunt would score a 78-yard receiving touchdown on backup Curtis March (who signed with the Pats five days ago). From there the Chiefs were off to the races.

New England suffered another loss when Danny Amendola left the game with a possible concussion. Kansas City’s defense stifled the defending champs the rest of the night. In a rare sight, the Pats were scrambling for answers on the sidelines but just couldn’t get anything going as the game got further out of reach.

All of that preseason talk of a Pats undefeated season is now up in smoke. We can all agree that this was a supremely impressive performance by the Chiefs, who have put the rest of the league on notice. I will be the first one to admit when I’m wrong, and it’s a less than ideal way to start another season picking games.

Now let’s move onto the rest of Week 1. There are a pair of playoff caliber games on the slate, which should make for quite the day on Sunday. We’ll take a look at both of these marquee games before I reveal my picks against the spread for the week.

We’ll start with the matchup of the week between the two teams most experts believe will meet in the NFC Championship game in January. Seattle meets Green Bay in a fantastic matchup that is rightfully the national game of the week. Russell Wilson versus Aaron Rodgers is not a bad way to get the season started.

As expected, the key matchup will be the Packers offense versus the Legion of Boom. Rodgers has done well against Seattle as of late, but this defense is much improved from the one he put up 38 points on a year ago. Earl Thomas is healthy and could be the biggest difference maker. Seattle sorely lacked the presence of their All-Pro caliber safety. The recent addition of Sheldon Richardson could be an even bigger factor in this matchup. Richardson and Michael Bennett will be a scary combination on the defensive line making things difficult for any quarterback, Rodgers included.

While that matchup will probably dictate most of the action, the matchup between the Seattle offense and Green Bay defense might be more of a factor. Seattle’s offensive line has been the Achilles heel of this unit and is already without starting left tackle George Fant. One observation from the preseason is that Green Bay will look to bring pressure on any down, which will mean Russell Wilson has to play from outside the pocket. Wilson is adept in that area of his game, but he has to keep himself away from the “big hit.”

Seattle’s passing game as the ability to reach another level and they might have to flip that switch in this game. The Seahawks cannot afford to get into a shootout with Rodgers, but the passing attack will be relied upon heavily. With Thomas Rawls likely out in this game, Eddie Lacy will be the lead back. The revenge factor might be a tad overblown because Seattle has struggled to run the ball for about two seasons.

Any way you cut it, this should be an incredible game and a hell of a potential playoff preview.

Now we’ll move onto the tonight’s primetime game between the Cowboys and the Giants. The buildup to this game has been all about the status of two young stars on either side of the matchup. Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott has seemingly won his battle with the NFL for now and will be in action for the Cowboys. The Giants might not be so lucky as Odell Beckham will be a gametime decision with a high ankle sprain. While the Giants would love to have their superstar receiver in the lineup, it may be in the best interest of the season to hold him out to get him back to 100 percent.

As far as the game goes, this will all be about the Dallas offense versus the New York defense. Last season the Giants used their second ranked defense to get the best of the Cowboys in both games. In order to continue that winning streak, they will need this defense to control the game once again.

Elliott rushed for 100 yards in the second matchup but it took 24 carries to do so. The Dallas offensive line will have their hands full with this stout New York front, which should make for quite a battle in the trenches. Whoever controls the offensive line will hold the key to winning this matchup.

Dallas has to find some success on offense because even without OBJ the Giants could have their way with the Cowboys defense. A young secondary against this passing attack is not an ideal scenario. Eli Manning may not have the best line in front of him, but Dallas lacks an adequate pass rush due to suspensions across the defensive line.

Even with Elliott being able to play in this game, you would have to give a slight edge to the Giants to open the season.

Okay now onto the fun part of these columns, my picks against the spread. Last season I had my ups and downs, finishing the regular season picking about 55 percent winners against the spread. I caught fire in the playoffs going 9-1 money line before nailing my Super Bowl pick thanks to the incredible comeback by the Pats.

A new year brings a clean slate and a higher bar to reach. Starting 0-1 certainly wasn’t the perfect way to start the season but Sunday brings 13 more chances to right the ship. As always I’ll save the Monday night games for the Sunday recap column on Monday. So here we go, my first set of picks for the 2017 season (Winners in Bold).

This Week: 0-1        2017 season: 0-1

1:00 p.m. kickoff 

Philadelphia (-1) vs. Washington

NY Jets (+8) vs. Buffalo

Atlanta (-6.5) vs. Chicago

Baltimore (+3) vs. Cincinnati

Pittsburgh (-9.5) vs. Cleveland

Arizona (-2.5) vs. Detroit

Jacksonville vs. Houston (-4.5)

Oakland vs. Tennessee (-2.5)

 

4:05/4:25 p.m. kickoff 

Indianapolis vs. LA Rams (-4.5)

Seattle (+3) vs. Green Bay

Carolina (-5) vs. San Francisco

 

Sunday Night Football

NY Giants (+4) vs. Dallas

 

That’s it for me today. Enjoy all of the NFL action! I’ll be back tomorrow with a recap of the Week 1 games. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Okay folks, now its time for the fun part. All of the previews are written, the preseason is over, and the regular season finally here. This edition of “No Huddle,” will be an attempt to tell you how the season will play out before it even happens. While I missed out on getting ahead of the Dallas resurgence, Atlanta’s big run and whiffed on my Arizona Cardinals pick for the Super Bowl. That’s the fun of football though. Just when you think you have a read on things, the regular season turns what you know on its head. I still got three of the final four teams correct and seven of the twelve playoff teams, so it could have been a lot worse.

We’ll go through my picks for each division winner and the wild cards, who I think reaches the conference title game, and finally who I believe will win the Super Bowl. This year I’ll give a thought or two on why I’m making the pick but this will be quicker hitting than the division previews. So here we go, my predictions for the 2017 season.

AFC East – New England Patriots (14-2)

Possibly the easiest pick I will make this season. The Patriots own this division and this might be the best roster since 2007. They will easily secure home-field advantage en route to their 15^th division title under Bill Belichick.

AFC North – Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)

While the AFC North is always tough to win, the Steelers are head and shoulders above the rest of this division. Big Ben has all of his weapons healthy and ready to go. This defense will surprise some people too.

AFC South – Tennessee Titans (10-6)

The Titans finally get over the hump this season and will power through the Texans to a division title. Marcus Mariota will take the leap to superstardom with an improved offense around him. Red-zone dominance and just enough production on defense will get the Titans to the division crown.

AFC West – Oakland Raiders (11-5)

The defense scares the living bejesus out of me. Thankfully the Raiders have one of the best offenses and a quarterback who will be in the thick of the MVP race. Beast Mode will add another dimension to this offense and the Raiders will keep finding a way to win tight ball games.

AFC Wild Cards – Kansas City (10-6), Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)

Kansas City will narrowly lose the race for the AFC West crown but will still find themselves in the postseason. Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt will be vital to their success. The Chiefs defense won’t be as good but will still be a formidable unit. Meanwhile the Chargers will finally stay relatively healthy, but struggle to beat the Raiders and Chiefs. Luckily, they will get a big season out of its defense and allows this offense to thrive playing from ahead.

NFC East – New York Giants (11-5)

With all of the off-field issues in Dallas, the Giants will use a stout defense and a more consistent offense to take the NFC East. While this offensive line will still be an issue at times, the Giants will have enough to win this division in the final weeks of the season.

NFC North – Green Bay Packers (12-4)

Aaron Rodgers will be the difference for the Packers taking the NFC North. This offense will be potent all season long, and will use an attacking style on defense to get more possessions for Rodgers. They won’t win the division as comfortably as they would hope but still get the job done.

NFC South – Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

There won’t be a Super Bowl hangover in Atlanta this season. The offense won’t be as good, but will still be one of the NFL’s best. Dan Quinn’s defense will be what prevents the Falcons from falling out of the playoffs.

NFC West – Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Seattle won’t have much of a problem winning this division. However, the Legion of Boom will carry an offense that will be hot and cold. Russell Wilson will have a tremendous season overall despite another down year for this offensive line.

NFC Wild Cards – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6), Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

Tampa Bay fulfills their potential using a top-ten offense to catapult them into the postseason. Tampa’s defense will be a huge difference maker as the season progresses. Minnesota will get back to playing incredible defense, while this offense will be much improved from a year ago. Both will make incredibly dangerous wild card teams.

AFC Championship – New England over Pittsburgh

Not the sexiest pick ever, but you have to call it the way you see it. Yes, Julian Edelman’s injury is a blow for New England but they have plenty of talent to overcome that loss. Pittsburgh could be the most talented team in the league but are one injury away from being in a spot. The Patriots have the Steelers number and that trend will continue in January.

NFC Championship – Green Bay over Minnesota

Green Bay narrowly goes over Minnesota in the NFC title game in January. Minnesota clears the way for the Packers by upsetting Seattle and New York along the way. The Vikings defense will get them there, but Sam Bradford won’t be able to beat Aaron Rodgers at the end. Minnesota will come up just short of becoming the first team to play a Super Bowl at home.

Super Bowl LII – New England over Green Bay

A clash of the top-two quarterbacks in the NFL will be the perfect cap on what will be one of the wildest seasons in recent memory. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers in a game for the ages. Unfortunately for Rodgers, his defense won’t be able to stop Brady in this game where the Patriots will slowly pull away in the fourth quarter.

Okay so let’s quickly go over tonight’s regular season opener in Foxborough between the defending champion Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs. While the Chiefs have had some success against the Pats, this will be an uphill climb in front of what will be a raucous crowd tonight.

The key for Kansas City will be the pass rush against Tom Brady. They don’t have to rack up a ton of sacks, but they will have to be disruptive. Rob Gronkowski will be a major concern for the Chiefs as they could be vulnerable over the middle tonight. Keep an eye on how New England looks to attack the middle, as they could be setting the Chiefs up to go deep to Brandin Cooks or Chris Hogan.

Kansas City will have their hands full with the New England offense, which means they will have to be methodical on offense. We all know that New England plays a bend but don’t break style, which has worked wonders against the Chiefs in the past. We’ll get our first look at Kareem Hunt tonight, and see if he is worth the insane amount of hype he has gotten since the NFL Draft. If you recall, the Falcons were able to run the ball well against New England in the Super Bowl and this is where this defense is vulnerable again this season.

If the Chiefs want to have any chance though, they will have to excel in the red-zone. The biggest weakness of the KC offense is in this area and it is the strength of Bill Belichick defenses. Andy Reid has had all offseason to figure out a plan to beat the Patriots, but it remains to be seen how they will breakthrough here.

The Patriots will start the year off on the right foot in a game that might be closer than most experts expect. I’ll start off the year taking the Patriots (-8) tonight.

That’s it for me today. Enjoy the game tonight. I’ll be back tomorrow to recap the game and get you ready for the rest of Week 1, including my ATS picks. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

It feels like Christmas. The long seven-month layoff ends and the NFL officially returns tonight. New England will be raising the banner for its fifth championship as part of the opening night festivities. Helping the defending champs open up the season are the Kansas City Chiefs. We’ll get to my thoughts on the game in my predictions column a little later today. First, we have one more division to preview before the season kicks off.

The AFC West was without a doubt the best division in the NFL last season (sorry NFC East fans). Thanks to the surprising leap made by the Oakland Raiders, this division came down to the wire but turned due to a Derek Carr injury. Kansas City was able to take advantage, winning the regular season finale to take the division crown at the 11^th hour.

2017 figures to feature a similar story arc, but just a little more complicated. The Raiders solidified their offense and, on paper, should be the favorites in the division. Kansas City is right there, this year needing its youth to match the level of the vets to get back to the postseason. Denver’s defense is still fearsome. The real enigma of this division is the Los Angeles Chargers, where bad luck as made a home for the last few seasons, but could be in line for a turn in their fortunes.

Let’s take a look at this division in today’s first installment of “No Huddle.”

Kansas City Chiefs (last season: 12-4)

We get our first look official look at the Chiefs tonight, but for the most part we all pretty much know the story with KC. This is an Andy Reid-coached team. They’ll be conservative and opportunistic on offense and rely on their strong defense. There is a small twist heading into this season though.

Kansas City’s offense isn’t exactly what you would call exciting. Last season that changed with the arrival of Tyreek Hill, who literally burst on the season for the Chiefs. Hill showed the ability to score touchdowns whenever he touched the football. Now the Chiefs will look for Hill to be a focal point of this offense moving forward. Jeremy Maclin is out, and Hill will be the guy to fill the top receiver role.

The Chiefs struck gold with Hill last season, drafting him in the fifth round in 2016 out of West Alabama and getting an All-Pro season out of him. This season Kansas City is hoping they have struck gold for a second year in a row. Even before the Spencer Ware injury we had been hearing rumblings that Kansas City was in love with rookie running back Kareem Hunt.

As the offseason moved into the summer, the volume of those rumblings got turned up to 11. Hunt is now the lead back and will have a primary role in this offense this season. The third round pick out of Toledo could be one of the keys to the Chiefs offense finding another gear.

It’s a new year, but the same story with the Chiefs defense. They lost Dontari Poe in free agency, and aside from that nothing has really changed. An injury to Justin Houston really hampered this pass rush last season. This year, Houston is healthy and ready to get this defense back up the sack rankings, an area that must improve this season. His partner in-pressure, Tamba Hali, is a little banged up but once these two are on the field we might see the best this defense has to offer.

Part of the reason KC lost Poe in free agency was due to the negotiations with safety Eric Berry. The Chiefs wisely chose to resign Berry, keeping their best defensive playmaker in the organization. An improved pass rush will make things that much easier for Berry to disrupt and cause turnovers.

The window is closing on this current Chiefs team, but there is no reason why this team shouldn’t be in contention for a playoff spot. The head-to-head matchups with Oakland will ultimately determine which team has to go through the Wild Card and which team has home-field advantage in the Divisional Round.

Oakland Raiders (last season: 12-4)

Quick question. Who was the most fun team to watch on the Red Zone Channel last year? Most people would probably say the Oakland Raiders. This was a team that thrived on living on the edge last season, going 8-1 in games decided by seven points or less. That’s a trend that doesn’t usually carry over year-to-year, but that doesn’t mean this team is set up to fail. In fact, Oakland looks locked into a playoff spot barring another injury to Derek Carr.

If it weren’t for an injury on Christmas Eve, Carr should have been the league’s MVP last season. He virtually carried this team to a 12-3 record before his injury. That’s even more impressive when you look at their offensive and defensive split from 2016. Oakland had a top-ten offense and a bottom-ten defense. Carr throwing to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree has been a thing of beauty the last two seasons. The three C’s will clearly be the focal point of this offense this year.

In order to win in the postseason, you need to have a changeup. Oakland’s running game was good but not great last season. Their offensive line ranks among the best in the league, but Oakland has been going through running backs with varying degrees of success. With Latavius Murray now residing in Minnesota, Oakland convinced Marshawn Lynch to come out of retirement to play for his hometown team.

Beast Mode has looked good so far this preseason, and looks fresh after his year-long sabbatical. If Lynch stays healthy, I don’t know how opposing defenses will be able to stop this offense. The run/pass combination will present a “pick your poison” dilemma.

The Raiders will need the offense to be that good because this defense might be that bad. If it weren’t for the presence of reigning Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack, this defense would probably rank even worse. Mack has to be otherworldly in order for this team to have any chance to stay in the top-tier of the AFC. There isn’t much of any proven talent outside of him. I wish there was more to say but that’s pretty much the book on the Oakland defense.

It will be another year of games coming down to the wire for the Raiders. My biggest worry for this team is this defense but the offense has plenty of firepower to overcome that issue though. Thankfully they play in the AFC, which should mean a return trip to the postseason for the Raiders.

Denver Broncos (last season: 9-7)

Last season wasn’t quite the encore that the Broncos were hoping for following a Super Bowl 50 victory. Denver lost “The Sheriff” to retirement and in stepped Trevor Siemian to lead the offense. What followed was a series of ups and downs that led to the Broncos ultimately missing the postseason. 2017 is setting up for a similar story.

Siemian won the battle for the starting QB job in training camp and will get another crack at proving he is a viable NFL starter. If that’s the case, he will have to get the ball to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders with more consistency. These two are still one of the best receiver tandems in the league, which should help the young Siemian.

An improved rushing attack could also help out a young quarterback. C.J. Anderson’s injury sent this running game into a tailspin as Devantae Booker and Kapri Bibbs couldn’t get any consistent production. Most of the blame could fall on this offensive line, which was pretty subpar last season. Unfortunately, we won’t know for sure if this reconfigured line will be a big improvement on last season. If so, then Denver could have something with this offense.

Denver’s defense needs this offense to improve. While they were able to win one Super Bowl with this defense doing all of the work, that just isn’t a formula you can sustain year-to-year. This is still a top-three defense led by Von Miller and the best cornerback tandem in the league. This modern “Orange Crush” will have to do without defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who is now the DC for the Rams.

Any way you slice it, the path to the postseason for Denver is led by the defense. They are tough to score points on consistency while they harass your quarterback and take the football away. It’s all about pressure and being right up in your face all the time.

As far as playoff hopes go, you have to give the Broncos a puncher’s chance. This defense is too good and the offense just has to show signs of life to win some ball games. In a thin AFC wild card race, this is not the team you want to see sneak in as the sixth seed. The numbers game could be the problem, as only two Wild Card spots are available for this division.

Los Angeles Chargers (last season: 5-11)

2016 turned into another series of unfortunate events for the Chargers in what turned out to be their final season in San Diego. Now playing in Carson for the next two seasons, the Chargers are hoping a change of scenery will be the spark for a return to the postseason. If anyone on this team could just stay healthy, this would be a really interesting team. In fact, since all of the key veterans, the Chargers are actually a trendy pick to win this division.

Philip Rivers has been stuck in neutral for years, saddled with an offense that just can’t make it through the full season. Most of it has been bad luck and some freak injuries. Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen are both healthy once again and as long as that stays that way this offense will be in business. Add in Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Gates, and the eventual debut of the currently injured Mike Williams and this offense really has a chance to be special.

Gordon really broke out last season after a disappointing rookie campaign. He gives this offense the steady rushing attack that it needs for Rivers to air it out without issues. This can be a highly productive unit overall, but we kind of already knew that. So why is this team becoming a trendy pick in the division?

Well it’s the potential of this defense. Joey Bosa didn’t get to play the entire season, but once he got going he proved that he could become a dominant pass rusher. Paired with Melvin Ingram, Bosa could take an even bigger step forward this season. Ingram and Bosa could be a lethal combination in the pass rush, which will allow Jason Verette to finally realize his potential. Expect a lot of sacks from this defense, and that could mean more turnovers as well.

The Chargers might be a trendy pick in this division, however I’m pumping the brakes on that. Los Angeles has a lot working for them, but luck doesn’t seem to be on their side. However, if this team stays healthy they can make a strong push to be the third playoff team from this division.

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for my 2017 NFL Predictions column. I’ll also preview the opener between New England and Kansas City and make my first ATS pick of the season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.