The two-month wait is over. Golf’s second major begins this weekend as the 117th U.S. Open tees off tomorrow at Erin Hills. Over the course of the next four days, 156 of the world’s best professional and amateur golfers will attempt to win one of the most storied tournaments in the world. Similar to two years ago at Chambers Bay, the field will be playing a course hosting the U.S. Open for the first time. How will it all shake out, and who will take home the championship?
The Course

This “Scottish-American hybrid” course stretches over 7700 yards, which includes four par-fives. Photo Credit: Erin Hills
Erin Hills will act as the setting, but also the main antagonist to the drama that will take place just 35 miles northwest of Milwaukee. In true U.S. Open fashion, this course has some interesting challenges for this type of tournament. The course will play as the longest in the history of the U.S. Open but that doesn’t necessarily mean hitting it long is the surest path to success.
That was until Tuesday when the USGA shortened the knee-high fescue roughs. The USGA claims that this was not due to complaints from certain players. Some players voiced concerns that potential rainstorms could create areas in the rough that would be unplayable during the course of the weekend. It was a bit of a controversial move, considering that this essentially makes things a bit easier for the field.
This course has some of the widest fairways that you will ever see for a course hosting the U.S. Open. Tee shots shouldn’t be the issue this week if you find the fairway, which should play into the favor of the more powerful and accurate players. However, the players that will rise to the top of the leaderboards will be the guys who are solid with their irons.
Approach and short games will really be tested this week as Paul Azinger, on the Clubhouse podcast, described the areas around the greens to be more Augusta National than a traditional U.S. Open course. This means there will be up-and-down opportunities available, but you have to be extremely precise with your approach. Winds will be a key factor to keep an eye on this weekend, because if gusts are weak, the greens will become even more accessible with a lack of physical protection from the surrounding course.
As for the actual greens themselves, they are supposedly in perfect condition at the moment. However, the guys from Shackhouse did point out that if the course gets firm these greens would become a nightmare for the players. It will be interesting to see how all of these factors come together this week.
The Field

Dustin Johnson is back to defend his U.S. Open championship from last season, but between the course and field, that is easier said than done. Photo Credit: Associated Press
156 players (if Phil Mickelson can play) start the tournament tomorrow trying to take home the U.S. Open Championship trophy. By Sunday, there will be one man hoisting the trophy as the ultimate Father’s Day celebration. There is a very intriguing mix of talent in this year’s field:
- U.S. golfers in the Field: 87
- Former Champions in the Field: 11
- First time qualifiers in the field: 50
- Number of Countries Represented: 23
Those are some of the more interesting statistics, but the one that caught my eye are the number of players who have actually played at Erin Hills for a tournament of this magnitude. The biggest tournament that this course has hosted in its ten-year history was the U.S. Amateur in 2011. In this field there are 18 golfers who played in that tournament, including Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas. Experience may not be a huge factor this week, but this is certainly an interesting bit of information to keep in your back pocket.
Let’s move on to some of the best pairings for the opening rounds. Often times, the best part of Thursday and Friday are watching star-studded groups playing with and against each other, jockeying for position on the leaderboard. Here are some of the best groups for the first two rounds. Keep in mind that tee times for Thursday are the opposite on Friday (ex. Morning groups on Thursday play in the afternoon on Friday).
Thursday
7:51 A.M. (10th tee) – Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm
8:24 A.M. (10th tee) – Matt Kuchar, Francesco Molinari, Patrick Reed
8:35 A.M. (10th tee) – Martin Kaymer, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson
1:36 P.M. (1st tee) – Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott
1:47 P.M. (1st tee) – Henrik Stenson, Charl Schwartzel, Louis Oosthuizen
1:58 P.M. (1st tee) – Jimmy Walker, Justin Thomas, Paul Casey
2:09 P.M. (1st tee) – Jason Day, Rory McIlory, Justin Rose
There are some incredible groupings here and feature some of the best golfers and potential storylines that could dominate the tournament. Spieth and DJ could see a lot of each other this weekend considering they are two of the favorites to win the tournament, it could be possible to see them play against each other for three or potentially even four days in a row.
For my money, the group I am most interested in is the Matsuyama/Fowler/Rahm group. Each one of these men have the ability to win this tournament, but we can more realistically think of this as the “Wild Card group.” This is a group that can have all three near the top of the leaderboard or at least two players miss the weekend.
The Weather

Courtesy: National Weather Service
As of right now, the weather report looks okay for the weekend. Rain is in the forecast, but Saturday is the most likely day for that to be a factor. Winds will be light to moderate for most of the weekend, until the final round on Sunday where winds could reach upwards of 17mph during the day.
*A quick side note for the weather. If there is any kind of rain delay on Thursday morning, Phil Mickelson will be able to make it to Erin Hills in time for the 2:20 PM tee time. He previously said he would miss the tournament to attend his daughter’s graduation, but the USGA has given him a way to do both (with some help).
The Winner

Who will rise up to join the ranks of U.S. Open champions? Photo Credit: USGA
With so many factors to consider, this is a difficult tournament to predict. Weather could play a huge factor in augmenting the features of this course. Mother Nature has the ability to turn this long but forgiving course into a hellish nightmare that has no end. That being said, it looks as though the weather should cooperate for much of the week.
While many experts believe that the long-ball players will own this course, something tells me it won’t be the major key for the winner. Irons and putters will be doubly important with the way the greens are expected to play. Dustin Johnson is the popular pick to win this tournament, but he has yet to regain his early season dominance following his unfortunate accident that caused him to miss The Masters.
Finesse will outweigh power when it counts this weekend. The conditions of the course would lead you to believe that this is shaping up to be similar to when Rory McIlory shredded the field at Congressional in 2011. Unfortunately, Rory still hasn’t looked like Rory this season.
Could this be the week we finally get to see Jordan Spieth get back on track? Of the favorites, Spieth has the best chance of winning this week. While he’s isn’t one of the longer players off the tee, his short game has always been one of his best assets. While he’ll be in contention this week, this major championship won’t belong to him by the end.
I’m going out on a limb here, but I think that this is the week that Rickie Fowler finally wins his first major championship. He’s coming off of a T2 finish at The Memorial two weeks ago, so there is some positive momentum heading into this week. Yes, Fowler has not played well in previous U.S. Open tournaments, but this course seems like the one that he can find success on.
Fowler is in the top-five on the PGA Tour in fairways hit this year. Despite the USGA knocking down the fescue roughs, missing the fairway will most likely lead to big numbers. Accuracy off the tee is going to be more important that whacking the ball 350 yards off the tee.
The putter is going to be big this week for Fowler as well. If he is in a groove like he was at The Memorial, then he will be tough to beat. In fact, Fowler is seventh on Tour this season in strokes gained from putting. At some point it has to come together for him, and this looks like the course that can provide him with his first major championship.
That’s it for me today. I’ll be back on Friday with a new episode of the Shooting the Moon Podcast where I’ll be talking U.S. Open and MLB. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.