The Fourth Line: Pittsburgh vs. Nashville. Who Will Win the Stanley Cup?

It has all led to this. Almost two months of attrition leaves us with two teams left fighting for the greatest trophy in all of sports, the Stanley Cup. On one side you have the defending champions looking to complete the first successful title defense in 19 years. The other side is the 19-year old expansion franchise looking win its first championship after coming into the postseason with the fewest points of the playoff teams. One series will determine who gets to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup.

As of now Pittsburgh leads 1-0 over Nashville, but we can all agree that game certainly provided some intrigue. The Penguins scored in a flurry, and had the hockey gods on their side Monday night. Nashville once again showed the incredible tenacity that got them to this point in its three-goal comeback to tie the game. However, it was the Penguins night in the opening stanza of what looks to be a long Stanley Cup Final.

The question remains, how will the rest of this series play out?

 

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Photo Credit: NHL

A search for that answer can lead you down a few different paths. This intriguing clash of styles leaves us with a potentially compelling championship round. It’s offensive star power versus defensive opportunism.

Pittsburgh brings a lot of offense to the party, and we all know the key participants. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel each have their spot on the marquee for good reason. Crosby and Malkin are already heading to the Hall of Fame, while Kessel could potentially lock up a spot for himself by the end of this run with Pittsburgh.

However, it’s a rookie left winger that currently leads the champions in goals scored in this postseason. Jake Guentzel has turned in a star-making performance over these past two months scoring 10 goals in these playoffs, 4 of those being game-winners. He got to play hero once again on Monday night, netting the go-ahead goal for Pittsburgh.

Speaking of nets, the Penguins have had to undergo a change in goal in order to reach this point. Marc-Andre Fluery initially needed to hold things down for Pittsburgh while the star of last year’s playoffs, Matt Murray, recovered from an injury. Fluery played well in the first two rounds, but a bit of desperation forced Murray to finally return between the pipes in the Eastern Conference Finals against Ottawa.

Before we get into the matchup, let’s talk a bit about the Nashville Predators, who have come out of nowhere to reach the Stanley Cup Final. Its been a wild run for a team that many people didn’t give much of a chance in the first round against the mighty Chicago Blackhawks.

It’s truly a team effort for the Predators, who have had 17 different players score goals for them this postseason. This isn’t a team that necessarily prides itself on its offense, but really takes advantage of their chances when they are there. Not to mention that Nashville is without its leading scorer in the postseason and top-line center Ryan Johansen due to a thigh injury. Every game has a different feel, and you never know who is going to play the hero on the offensive end.

The team’s MVP this postseason has easily been goalie Pekka Rinne, and that’s not even a debate. Rinne has been nothing short of spectacular during the playoffs, allowing less than two goals per game with a save percentage of nearly 93 percent. Whenever you size up the teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, you have to account for which team gets the red-hot goaltender, and Rinne has been just that. If the Predators should finish the job and win the Stanley Cup, Rinne will rightfully win the Conn Smythe.

As you know, good goaltending usually needs a solid defense in front of it. Nashville’s defense might be the most lethal part of this team. Led by P.K. Subban, all six of the defenders for the Predators can be effective at both ends of the ice. This unit has been incredibly underrated this postseason and you have to keep an eye on this group to make a big play in the finals.

In terms of the actual matchup, this really boils down to which style wins out. Nashville thrives in defensive oriented, low-scoring games. It allows Pekka Rinne to be at his best and be the source of momentum for the Predators. Pittsburgh likes to pick up the pace and score in bunches. This certainly plays to their strength with three of the best offensive players in the NHL.

A stat that will undoubtedly come up a ton in this series is the Penguins success in relation to their scoring output. Including Game 1, 11 of Pittsburgh’s 13 wins this postseason have come when they score 3+ goals. You will have a pretty good idea how this series will play out if you keep an eye on the scoring pace of each game.

Styles make fights, and this is a fight that could go the distance. Each goalie is good enough to steal a game here or there, but a big factor is who defends home ice better. Pittsburgh is 8-3 at home this postseason while Nashville is an impressive 7-1, with the only loss coming in overtime. This series turns on a dime if either team is able to score a road win.

Pittsburgh dodged a major bullet in Game 1, as they were outplayed everywhere but the scoreboard. Nashville was able to completely shut down Pittsburgh for almost two periods, holding them without a shot for 37 minutes. While that is going to be near impossible to replicate, it certainly shows that Nashville can impose their will on the Penguins.

Things are going to be tight for a while, but I think we are in for the long haul. As far as the outcome goes, I think the Predators win this series in seven games. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” with my NBA Finals preview. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.