Playoffs?! Yes, it is that time of the year once again. This week marks the beginning of the playoffs in the NBA and NHL. Today, “The Fourth Line” will be looking at the first round matchups in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Intense doesn’t even begin to describe this six-week war of attrition. It’s all about being the team to hoist the greatest trophy in all of sports, Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Before I get into the eight first round matchups, lets set the stage for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. 2016 marked the first time in 46 years where none of the Canadian teams made it to the postseason. In a strange reversal of fortune, five Canadian teams will have a shot at the cup this season. It really speaks to the static nature of the NHL from year-to-year.

One thing that hasn’t changed is the winner of the President’s Trophy in the NHL this season. For the second year in a row, the Washington Capitals ended the season with the most points in the league. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean much of anything in the playoffs.

Since the lockout in 2004-05, the winner of the President’s Trophy has only made the Stanley Cup three times. Of those three teams, two have won it all (Detroit in 2007-08 and Chicago in 2012-13). In the case of the Capitals, the Alexander Ovechkin-era has not been that successful either. Washington has failed to reach the Eastern Conference Finals during over the course of Ovechkin’s career, including two previous seasons where they won the President’s Trophy.

Historically, the chances of a repeat for the Pittsburgh Penguins are not that great either. Despite the fact that these Penguins are one of the best teams in the league, there has not been a repeat champion in the NHL since 1998. That being said, don’t be shocked if the Penguins make it out of the Eastern Conference.

A return to the Stanley Cup Finals will likely ride on the performance of goaltender Matt Murray. Last season Murray was thrust into the net following an injury to Marc-Andre Fleury, and he shined on the big stage. The Achilles Heel of the Penguins during the Sidney Crosby-era has been poor goaltending (see Flyers-Penguins in 2012).

Over in the Western Conference, whichever team survives will be extremely battle-tested in the Stanley Cup Finals. The top of the bracket is loaded with some of the toughest teams in the league, while the bottom of the bracket features some of the fastest teams in the game.

Unsurprisingly, Chicago is the top seed in the West once again, but the road to the Stanley Cup Finals is littered with stiff competition. Chicago was able to steal away home-ice advantage from Minnesota despite losing four straight to end the season. If the Blackhawks are going to win its fourth Stanley Cup in eight years, this could be the most difficult path they have ever had to go through.

The long journey for the Stanley Cup starts tomorrow night and with that in mind, it is time to dive into the first round matchups.

Eastern Confernce

New York Rangers vs. Montreal Canadiens (Game 1, April 12^th)

 

If you like low scoring, defensive games then this is the series for you. Henrik Lundqvist and Carey Price is an Olympic-level goaltending matchup, which means scoring will be at a premium over the course of this series. Both teams have cut their teeth over the years being the better defensive team on the ice.

The Rangers haven’t been as sharp on the defensive end of the ice this season and Lundqvist may be in the midst of a down year. If you are looking for the story that will determine the outcome of this series, it will be the play of Lundqvist. King Henrik has seen his goals against average rise to 2.74, well above his career average of 2.32. If the Rangers have any hope of advancing in this series, they will need their goaltender to get back to being a superstar in between the pipes.

Luckily for New York, Montreal is among the lowest scoring teams in the playoffs. The Habs only average 2.71 goals per game, and rely on grinding out games rather than having its offense take over. Montreal is a team that is built around the blue-liners, which will make it difficult to get solid scoring chances on Price.

Experts around the league are torn on this series, and are split almost down the middle with their picks. This is a series that will likely go the distance.

Winner: New York in 7

 

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (Game 1, April 12^th)

Familiarity breeds contempt in the postseason (something we’ll see a lot of in the West). The Penguins and Blue Jackets have seen a lot of each other in the regular season and previous playoff series. Consistency is a big factor this time of year, and that will bode well for the Penguins.

Columbus turned a lot of heads at the beginning of the season by winning 15 consecutive games. That almost assured their spot in the postseason, but this has not been the same team since that streak ended. A second half swoon among the teams in the Metropolitan Division kept the struggling Blue Jackets in the postseason despite ending the year 1-5-1.

The Penguins may be without top defenseman Kris Letang, but that shouldn’t be an issue this round. This series will go as long as Pittsburgh allows it. Columbus’s only chance is to (cleanly) goon it up and force the Penguins to worry more about fighting than scoring.

Winner: Pittsburgh in 5

Ottawa Senators vs. Boston Bruins (Game 1, April 12^th)

Fortunately for both of these teams, the NHL has an unorthodox method for playoff seeding. Ottawa and Boston, at 98 and 95 points respectively, have to be glad they avoid playing a Metropolitan team in the first round. This series will be a clash of styles though.

Ottawa is the lowest scoring team in the postseason, while the Bruins have been scoring in bunches as of late. It’s tough for me to picture a scenario where the Senators will be able to outscore the Bruins in four games. The numbers just aren’t there but Ottawa will have home-ice advantage, which could aid their hopes.

Almost every stat gives the advantage to Boston, especially on special teams. Boston ranks as seventh on the power play (21.7 percent) and first on the penalty kill (85.7 percent). Ottawa on the other hand, ranks 22^nd on the power play (17 percent) and penalty kill (79.7 percent).

I’m expecting this to be a relatively short and one-sided series if Boston can win one of the first two games in Ottawa.

Winner: Boston in 5

Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (Game 1, April 13^th)

No matter how long this series goes, it is going to be a fun one to watch. In a matchup against the present and future of the NHL the President’s Trophy winning Capitals face off with the upstart Maple Leafs. It is going to be a treat to see how the youth of Toronto will fare in its first playoff appearance since 2012-13.

The length of this series hinges on Washington goaltender Braden Holtby. He is easily the best goaltender in the league right now, but he also has one of the league’s best defenses in front of him. Washington allowed the fewest number of goals in the entire league, with a GAA of 2.16 on the season.

It will be very intriguing to see if Auston Matthews and William Nylander can have the same level of success on the score sheet against this defensive juggernaut. Matthews and Nylander immediately burst onto the scene as rookies this year, each showing an elite scoring touch with the puck. They will need to overcome the relentless pressure that Washington puts on the defensive end.

Unfortunately, this will likely serve as a learning experience for Toronto. Washington is just better in all phases of the game, but here’s to hoping that we get some great games while this one lasts.

Winner: Washington in 5

 

Western Conference

Edmonton Oilers vs. San Jose Sharks (Game 1, April 12^th)

We ended the Eastern Conference with a matchup of present versus future and we begin the Western Conference with a similar matchup. San Jose is the defending champions in the Western Conference while Edmonton has finally realized the potential of its young stars.

This will be a fast-paced series that could see a ton of scoring in each game. The player to watch is the Art Ross Trophy winner, Connor McDavid. He followed up a Calder Trophy winning season in 2015-16 by leading the NHL in scoring this season. McDavid may be the youngest captain in the league, but he has shown he is more than capable of leading this team.

In any postseason, you can’t overlook the power of a team getting hot at the right time. Edmonton enters this postseason as one of the league’s hottest teams, finishing the season 8-2 over its last ten games.

Health is a key factor in this series as well. Joe Thornton and Logan Couture are both injured right now, and their status for Game 1 is up in the air. They will likely return at some point in this series but at far less than 100%. Without them in the lineup, the Sharks limped into the postseason.

Winner: Edmonton in 6

Minnesota Wild vs. St. Louis Blues (Game 1, April 12^th)

Hey, remember when I said familiarity breeds contempt. Look no further than this series to be the prime example in the first round. Not only are these teams division rivals, but St. Louis is coached by Mike Yeo, who coached the Wild for six seasons. That will be a very interesting subplot to this series.

As far as the actual play on the ice, this will be an incredibly hard-hitting series. These teams do no like each other, so look for some bad blood to come to a boil as this series dips into the late stages.

In a series that will likely go the distance, you have to look at the goaltending matchup. That goes to the Wild here. Devan Dubnyk has been fantastic this season and is one of the reasons why the Wild set a franchise record for wins and points. Combine a good goaltender, the second-best offense in the league with home-ice advantage for Minnesota, and you have a recipe for a close series win.

Winner: Minnesota in 7

Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames (Game 1, April 13^th)

Here is a series that could get ugly in more ways than one. When these teams faced off in the postseason two years ago, it looked like a fight club formed on the ice at times. If there is a first round series that could match the infamous Philadelphia-Pittsburgh series in 2012, it is this one.

Anaheim clearly has the edge in this series with a better offense, defense, and goaltender than Calgary. However, a consistent theme with the Ducks this decade has been their inability to win when they should. Does that mean they are prime for an upset here? Unlikely, but its worth noting.

Jake Allen will have to be a stud in net for the Flames, who will have to find a way to steal at least two games in Anaheim to win this series. Calgary will also need a huge lift from New Jersey native Johnny Gaudreau.

Unfortunately, this is a series of teams that were going in different directions at the end of the regular season. Calgary went 4-6 in its last ten games while Anaheim went 11-0-3 to end the year.

Winner: Anaheim in 6

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Nashville Predators (Game 1, April 13^th)

We end the first round previews with what could potentially be the best of series of the round. Despite the fact that the experts almost unanimously are picking the Blackhawks to win this series, the Predators present quite a challenge.

Nashville has one of the league’s most talented defensive units, led by P.K. Subban. They will be the focus in this series for the Predators to have any chance to upset the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Subban and the rest of the blue-liners will have their work cut out for them trying to stop the lethal Chicago offense. Luckily, Nashville has Pekka Rinne in net and he can be one of the league’s best when he is on his “A” game.

While this is all well and good for Nashville, they are facing the best playoff team of the decade. Chicago has had its ups and downs this season, but there aren’t many concerns heading into the postseason though. This year’s Blackhawks have not been great at any one thing, but you can’t deny that this team can matchup favorably against any team in the league.

Chicago is easily one of the deepest teams in the league with Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Artemi Panarin, and Corey Crawford leading the way. My only concern is the penalty kill for the Blackhawks, which ranks 24^th in the NHL (77.7 percent).

Regardless of any stats, Chicago has the best home-ice advantage in the league. The United Center can quickly become a house of horrors for any visiting team when “Chelsea Dagger” by The Fratellis starts ringing through the Madhouse on Madison.

Winner: Chicago in 7

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Curtain Call” to unveil my first power rankings of the MLB season. Episode 5 of the Shooting the Moon Podcast will be up Thursday. Friday will be a new edition of “Heat Check” previewing the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

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