Heat Check: Breaking Down Thursday Night’s Action in the Sweet 16

Here we go. The Sweet 16 begins tonight, and this is where the intensity gets ratcheted up a few notches. No novelties here. The first weekend of the NCAA tournament is great because of the sheer amount of basketball over the span of four days. However, what makes the rest of the tournament great is that we trade in quantity for quality. Only the best or hottest teams have made it and will be battling for the opportunity to play in the Final Four. We won’t know which four teams will get that chance but as always the ride there is incredible. Today’s “Heat Check” is looking at tonight’s Sweet 16 games. Let’s get into the matchups.

Midwest Region: Michigan vs. Oregon (7:09 PM, CBS)

We are getting started with a doozy tonight. Michigan and Oregon kick off the action in Kansas City, and this should be a good one. Both teams are very proficient on offense, which will provide us with some sparks.

The Wolverines are led by its three W’s of Moritz Wagner, D.J. Wilson, and Derrick Walton Jr. These three have been on fire of late, especially Wagner, who scored 26 points in Michigan’s second round victory over Louisville. In order for the Wolverines to keep this magical run alive, they will need to stay hot but more importantly keep Oregon from getting comfortable.

Oregon is a tough team to stop defensively because it has multiple places to go with the basketball, and more importantly can catch fire from beyond the arc. In a tight game, Dillon Brooks is a cold-blooded killer with the basketball. He’s also very good at drawing fouls early in the game, so Michigan will have to play disciplined defense.

As we all learned over the weekend though, Oregon will go as far as Tyler Dorsey can take them. Dorsey was near perfect from the floor against Rhode Island, scoring 27 points and basically saving the Ducks last Sunday. Of the hot shooters for the Ducks, Dorsey is easily the one Michigan cannot allow to get locked in.

This game will come down to the battle on the glass. Oregon has the edge in rebounding on paper, and if they are able to win that battle in the game that would swing this game squarely in Oregon’s favor. The Ducks are 21-1 this season when outrebounding its opponents.

West Region: West Virginia vs. Gonzaga (7:39 PM, TBS)

One of my favorite adages in sports is that styles make fights. Of all the games in this round, this one easily fits the bill. West Virginia is all about turning defense into offense through the full-court press while Gonzaga is a terrific half-court offense that relies on efficiency. Games like this turn into a live game of chicken, and the winner will be decides by which side blinks first.

With Nigel Williams-Goss at the helm of the Zags, I like their chances of being able to withstand the press during stretches of the ball game. The Mountaineers are a solid defensive team, but are much better in the press than in half-court defense. Look for Jevon Carter and Nathan Adrian to be at the front-end of the press. Their success rate defensively will make a huge difference in this game, because if Przemek Karnowski gets going for Gonzaga, that will be bad news for West Virginia.

Another x-factor in this game will be three-point shooting. The Mountaineers aren’t known for its prowess from beyond the arc, but made it rain in the second round. On the season, WVU is 36.7 percent from downtown but shot a ridiculous 57 percent against Notre Dame. If the Mountaineers can shoot anywhere near there then they might just be able to upset Gonzaga.

Midwest Region: Purdue vs. Kansas (Approx. 9:39 PM, CBS)

Oh baby, this one has the potential to be so good. This one is not a clash of styles as much as it’s a clash of personnel. Kansas is a loaded team, but primarily relies on the backcourt. Frank Mason III and Josh Jackson will be the headliners of tonight’s game, but I’m not sure how Purdue will slow them down.

The Boilermakers are not without talent though, because they bring a massive force on the inside. Led by Big Ten Player of the Year Caleb Swanigan, the frontcourt of Purdue can match up with any team in the country. If you haven’t had a chance to see Swanigan in action, tonight should be a treat. He is a double-double machine, but most importantly he is a smart player. Kansas can’t simply rely on attacking him on defense and hope he picks up fouls.

Similar to the WVU-Gonzaga game, three-point shooting could be a spot where this game can break. Both teams shoot a nearly identical percentage from beyond the arc, around 40 percent, while Purdue defends the three slightly better at 32 percent compared to 35 percent for the Jayhawks. Interestingly enough, the Boilermakers have become a popular upset pick as this week has progressed.

West Region: Xavier vs. Arizona (Approx. 10:09 PM, TBS)

The final game of the night could be more story than substance. As you probably have heard by now, Arizona coach Sean Miller made his name has the head coach at Xavier. Essentially that is the storyline heading into the one because on paper, this game seems lopsided.

Xavier will need a Herculean performance from senior Trevon Bluiett, who has been the shining star for the Musketeers. The issue is the multitude of guards that Arizona can throw at him defensively, namely Alonzo Trier and Kadeem Allen. If Bluiett cannot replicate anything near his 29-point performance against Florida State, it could be a long night for Xavier.

In my opinion this game starts and ends with Lauri Markkanen. This superb freshman has led the Wildcats in scoring and rebounding all season. He will be a nightmare for the X-men to cover tonight as he can score from anywhere on the court. The Musketeers will have to get physical with him to have any sort of chance to stop him, but that puts them at risk of getting into foul trouble.

If they decide to double Markkanen that is where this offense could really go off for Arizona. Over the past month, the Wildcats have excelled in working the ball inside-out. With the way they can shoot from the perimeter, Arizona keeps opposing defenses on its heels when the ball goes inside. It should come as no surprise why this is the largest favorite in Vegas this round.

That’s it for me today and enjoy the games tonight. I’ll be back tomorrow with another Heat Check to break down Friday night’s tournament games. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook. Also check out episode two of the Shooting the Moon podcast on SoundCloud.