Well wasn’t that exciting. Super Bowl LI is in the books and the Patriots pulled off, arguably, the most incredible comeback in NFL history. This isn’t revisionist history. Considering the circumstances, what Tom Brady, James White and company was able to pull off in NRG Stadium on Sunday night was nothing short of a miracle. Down 25 with eight minutes left in the third quarter, you had to think that this was a done deal for the Falcons.

I had my doubts, but there was still this feeling that despite a four-possession deficit that this game could be far from over. Most of that was due to the calm demeanor of one of my friends, who is a huge Pats fan and never once lost faith. You just had to think that Brady would find a way to make this a game.

Even when Stephen Gostowski shanked the PAT after the first New England touchdown (easily my best call of all the prop bets), there was a slight shift in the momentum that you could see on the field. As the Patriots mounted their comeback, I finally realized what the feeling was that kept me from believing the game was over. It was a feeling of inevitability.

Brady had to win this game, and this couldn’t just be any win either. In order to close the book on Deflategate and finally end the greatest QB of all time debate, he had to win in the most ridiculous of ways. How does he exercise the demons of a scandal hovering over his best Super Bowl performance ever (Super Bowl XLIX)? He just engineers the biggest comeback and wins the first overtime game in the Super Bowl. You know, no big deal or anything.

Now over the past two days, everyone has been trying to figure out how this happened and trying to put what the Falcons did into perspective. Some have called this the biggest choke of all-time, while others stopped just short of their more ardent peers. I’m more in the latter group. This was an epic collapse but there wasn’t some unforgivable gaffe that led to the Pats comeback. That would’ve been a choke. Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan got completely out-coached in the second half and overtime by Bill Belichick and his staff.

Last week when I wrote about the matchups to watch, I made it a point to list the coaching matchup in the strength-on-strength collision of Atlanta’s offense and New England’s defense first. Shanahan’s gameplan in the first half was executed to near perfection. The adjustments at halftime are what flipped the momentum to New England’s defense. Trey Flowers and the New England defensive line clamped down on Atlanta’s offensive line.

Simply put, by taking away the cutback lane on Atlanta’s running plays, it took away the most dangerous aspect of the Falcons offense, its unpredictability. Shanahan put the ball in Matt Ryan’s hands, and New England was ready for it, aside from a few ridiculous catches by Julio Jones. It made third downs longer, and there was no secret to what the play call would be either. Every one on the field, in the stadium, and at home knew that Atlanta was throwing the ball. It still astounds me how the Falcons went for the throat late in the game in field goal range. You have one of the most consistent kickers in Matt Bryant. Just run the ball a couple times, take the three points and bring the Lombardi trophy home with you. The pressure mounted and the Atlanta offensive line folded. A holding penalty and a sack would ultimately seal the fate of the Falcons, since that would be the last legitimate chance they would have to win the game.

On the other side of the ball, Quinn’s defense played almost exclusively robber-man coverage (man-to-man defense with a rover watching Brady’s eyes) the entire game. While it did lead to the Robert Alford pick-six, the strain of playing that type of defense against New England’s offense showed over the course of 93 plays (99 snaps including penalties). The Patriots semi-conservative rope-a-dope eventually wore out Atlanta to the point where the pass rush wasn’t in Brady’s face and he could find the open receiver. Once New England tied the game, then won the coin-toss for overtime, you knew Brady and Belichick had it in the bag.

Kudos to New England for giving fans everywhere an epic game and snatching its fifth Super Bowl win in the most insane way possible. Now we have to attempt to put this game into perspective among the collective pantheon of sporting lore.

This got me thinking about something though. We have arguably the greatest Super Bowl ever to cap off what may have been the greatest calendar year for championships. Think about it. Post-Super Bowl 50, we saw some of the most iconic championship games ever across sports world.

Villanova wins the national title in men’s basketball with a buzzer beater, right after North Carolina tied up the game with one of the most ridiculous shots I’ve ever seen. The NBA Finals featured Cleveland erasing a 3-1 series lead against a team coming off the greatest regular season run in league history and stealing a Game 7 on the road. That also includes Lebron James going superhuman in Games 5-7 and giving us his signature moment in the deciding game with “The Block” to secure his third NBA championship. To add to that summer we also had the Olympics, which saw the crowning achievements of Michael Phelps and Usain Bolt. Spring and summer, check.

Not to be outdone in the fall, the MLB saw the Cubs comeback from a 3-1 series deficit to force Game 7. Then in that Game 7, they blow the lead in the eighth inning, but find a way to win the game in extra innings to end a 108-year title drought. You also had USA win the Ryder Cup on the back of one of the greatest performances in the tournament’s history by Patrick Reed, which included his epic duel with Rory McIlroy.

Then we move onto the winter where football shows us once again why it’s the money sport in the United States. Obviously, Sunday’s Super Bowl is potentially the best of all of these games. We also got the epic national championship rematch between Clemson and Alabama that literally came down to the final second for the Tigers to topple the Tide. Hell, I’ll even throw in Team USA’s gold-medal victory over Team Canada in the IIHF World Junior Championship to give hockey some love. Team USA came back from a two-goal deficit twice to force OT before winning in a shootout.

Seriously, if you can name a better stretch of title games, be my guest. However, we will look back fondly at Feb. 2016-Feb. 2017 as possibly the greatest year in sports, capped off by arguably the greatest championship game of all time, cementing the legacies of Brady and Belichick as the best quarterback and coach ever.

That’s it for me today, I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” looking at the top NBA trade rumors and what it could mean for the league going forward. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

We are a little more than 48 hours away from kickoff of Super Bowl LI. Today, I present to you the final installment of the “No Huddle Super Bowl LI Preview.” I’ll be doing my final matchup breakdown of the season and a gambling extravaganza. This is going to be a full roster breakdown to see who has the edge on Sunday, plus I look at the best prop bets and give you my picks for the big game. There is a lot to get to so let’s just jump right in and start with the breakdown for the game.

This is a very interesting matchup in this game, not just because of the strength-on-strength matchup between the Atlanta offense and New England. You have Tom Brady with a chance to surpass Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw for the most Super Bowl wins by a quarterback. Atlanta has gets another shot to win its first Super Bowl in franchise history. We could also have the added subplot of Brady or Matt Ryan becoming the first NFL MVP to win the Super Bowl since 2000 (assuming one of them walk away with the award on Saturday night). That is just the tip of the iceberg too. Super Bowl LI is rich with subtext aside from the world championship that is on the line.

So the question remains, who has the edge in this game? Las Vegas sportsbooks currently have New England as the three-point favorite. However, there doesn’t seem to be a clear consensus among the experts and sports writers in this game. In truth, I have gone back and forth all week trying to figure this game out. I’ve been on New England since they beat Arizona in Week 1 without Brady but you can’t deny that Atlanta has more than a puncher’s chance to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy. Before I get to my final picks of the season, let’s go position by position and see where each team has the advantage.

Quarterback – New England

While Matt Ryan has been enjoying a career-best season, there is no way I’m going against Tom Brady. Brady’s Super Bowl experience gives him a leg up on his counterpart from Atlanta. In his previous six appearances in the big game, Brady is 4-2, with 1,605 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, four interceptions, a completion percentage of 66.4, and a quarterback rating of 95.3. To put it simply, Brady brings his best performances on the biggest stage of them all. If you had to ask me to name one quarterback to go win one game, my answer would almost always be Brady.

Running Back – Atlanta

Believe it or not, this was more difficult to pick than the quarterback matchup. New England’s trio of Legarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, and James White give them versatility in the ways they can attack you. However, the Atlanta duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman has been lethal all season. Freeman and Coleman are a matchup nightmare for defenses because they force your defense to respect them out of the backfield. The same can be said for New England’s trio, but there is a bit of predictability depending on whom they have on the field (Blount is the power back, Lewis and White are scat backs). Atlanta, on the other hand, can have either guy on the field and still have every part of its offense available to them, which gives them the advantage in the backfield.

Wide Receiver – Atlanta

On straight talent, the Falcons have the clear edge here because of first team All-Pro Julio Jones. It’s no secret that Jones is arguably the best receiver in the NFL, his 73-yard touchdown in the NFC championship game is evidence of why. To complement the game-breaking ability of Jones, Atlanta has a grinding possession receiver in Mohamed Sanu, and a speedster in Taylor Gabriel. This forms a trio that can easily play off one another that allows the Falcons to be very creative in its passing attack. Matt Ryan has so many options to move the ball down field.

I don’t want to sell New England’s receivers short, because they all fill their roles very well. Julian Edelman is quite possibly the best possession receiver in the NFL, Chris Hogan has been a pleasant surprise as a deep threat, and Danny Amendola is a nice third receiver. Malcolm Mitchell has an interesting role in the redzone, but has been a limited participant in practice all week. It also remains a mystery if Michael Floyd will play in the Super Bowl but could be a difference maker if New England gets him in the lineup.

Tight End – New England

 

Quite simply, this one goes to the Patriots because of Martellus Bennett. I didn’t put him in the x-factor portion of my preview due to the fact that I think he’s is a very important part of New England’s gameplan this week. Bennett is going to be a problem for Atlanta if he can stay healthy in this game. Atlanta’s tight ends are tertiary options at best in this offense so this was a no-brainer giving the edge to New England here.

Offensive Line – Atlanta

Much of the success for the Falcons this season can be traced back to the free agent signing of second team All-Pro center Alex Mack. He stabilized this offensive line and has made much of the explosion of this offense possible. Atlanta’s offensive line ranks as the sixth-best in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. By comparison, New England’s offensive line is ranked tenth on the strength of its tackles Nate Solder and second team All-Pro Marcus Cannon. Now this isn’t a landslide pick by any stretch of the imagination, but the problem area of the New England offense is the left guard-center combination of Joe Thuney and David Andrews, who could be the key to Atlanta’s pass rush getting to Brady. For that reason, I have to give the edge to Atlanta.

Defensive Line – New England

Another tough pick here but the ability of the Patriots to rely on its defensive line gives them an edge here. Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown create all kinds of problems in the running game, which will be a valuable asset in this game. There is also the potential that defensive end Chris Long can bring to this game with his pass rushing ability (easily a defensive x-factor to watch in this game). Atlanta may have the NFL sack leader in Vic Beasley, but a lot of the recent success of the Falcons defense in this run to the Super Bowl has been due to the increase in blitzes during the playoffs. In a game of this magnitude, give me the defensive line that can go out there and get the job done.

Linebackers – New England

Atlanta’s Deion Jones might be the best linebacker in this game, but I like what New England’s group can do overall. Dont’a Hightower is solid in the middle of this defense, and despite having a down year don’t sleep on Rob Ninkovich who always seems to make a big play in these type of games. Kyle Van Noy and Shea McClellan have carved out roles for themselves in this defense and both should have your attention on Sunday. I think that the outcome of this game could very well ride on this group’s performance as they have the unenviable task of stopping Atlanta’s running backs.

Secondary – New England

It’s a clean sweep on defense, and this position group clearly has the edge in this game. Malcolm Butler, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Logan Ryan, Eric Rowe, and Duron Harmon have formed a solid secondary over the course of this season. Butler was the hero in New England’s last Super Bowl win, famously intercepting Russell Wilson on the goal line to seal the game. The Rutgers trio of McCourty, Ryan, and Harmon has been incredible this postseason, highlighted in the Houston game where they each had an interception. Rowe might have been the steal of the season for New England, who came over in a preseason trade with Philadelphia and has turned into a great asset to this secondary. Pro Football Focus ranked the New England secondary as the third-best in the NFL, while Atlanta’s secondary ranked sixth.

Special Teams – New England

The calling card of every Bill Belichick team is an elite special teams unit. New England has both of the All-Pro special team players in Matthew Slater (first team selection for the fourth time in his career) and Nate Ebner (second team). Both will be crucial in kick and punt coverage, so keep an eye on either guy making a big play in this area. Stephen Gostowski may be having an off year but he is still one of the best kickers in the NFL.

Coaching – New England

 

Do I really need to explain this one? Bill Belichick is the best coach in the NFL right now and arguably the best of all-time. Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia are two of the best coordinators in the league. Atlanta’s coaching staff has done a hell of a job this season but there was no chance I was picking against Belichick.

Game Pick: New England   ATS Pick: New England (-3)  Over/Under: Under (59)

So as you can see, I think that New England has the edge in this game. Atlanta’s offense is prolific but New England has the formula to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy when the dust settles. I am expecting this to be a tight game until the very end, just like every Super Bowl in the Belichick-Brady era (no game has been decided by more than four points). Brady should have his way with Atlanta’s defense because they will have to blitz him to have any shot at getting pressure, and of course he is the best quarterback of all-time against the blitz. The Falcons will have some success on offense but I don’t think it will be enough to beat Brady. New England has been on a mission all season and have had the look of a champion since Brady came back from his suspension in Week 5.

Before I get into my prop bet picks, I just want to thank you all for reading “No Huddle” all season. It has been a blast writing these columns every week and I hope you have enjoyed them. Enjoy the game on Sunday, and for the final time this football season here are my gambling picks for Super Bowl LI, an all-prop bet edition (here is the full list from USA Today, CBS Sports, and NY Daily News).

2016 Regular Season ATS: 139-116-1

Playoffs (Straight): 9-1

Playoffs (ATS): 6-4

 

Super Bowl LI Prop Bets from Westgate Las Vegas/Bovada.lv

Pregame/Halftime/Novelty Prop Bets

Coin Toss – Tails (-102)

Length of National Anthem – Under 2:09 (-120)

What will Luke Bryan Wear During National Anthem – Blue Jeans (1/2)

Lady Gaga Hair Color at Start of the Halftime Show – Blonde (1/4)

First Lady Gaga Song at Halftime – “Edge of Glory” (6/1)

Deflate/Deflategate Mentions – Over 1.5 (EVEN)

Color of the Gatorade Bath? – Blue (15/2)

 

In-Game Prop Bets

Missed Extra Point? – Yes (+330)

Total QB Sacks – Over 4.0 (EVEN)

First Coaches Challenge – New England (-110)

First Gostowski Kickoff Result in a Touchback? – No (+190)

Team to Score First – Atlanta (+110)

First Touchdown Will Be Scored By? – Mohamed Sanu (+1400)

Longest Field Goal Made – Over 45.5 (-110)

First Score of the Game Will Be? – Touchdown (-190)

Longest TD of the Game – Over 49.5 (-110)

Lead Change in the 4^th Quarter? – Yes (+330)

First Turnover of the Game – Fumble (+140)

Last Score of the Game – Any Other (+160)

Tom Brady Passing Yards – Over 300.5 (-110)

Matt Ryan Passing Yards – Under 320.5 (-110)

Malcom Butler Interception? – Yes (+250)

Mohamed Sanu Receptions – Over 4.0 (EVEN)

Super Bowl MVP – Tom Brady (7/5)

That’s it for me folks. I’ll be back on Monday to recap the Super Bowl and the rest of the action in sports this weekend. Follow me on Facebook @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

With the turn of January to February, it can only mean we are that much closer to Super Bowl LI. I kicked off Shooting the Moon’s coverage of the big game yesterday with a list of the top offensive x-factors. Today, I’m looking at the most important matchups for Sunday. I think this game is rife with intriguing matchups, and all of them will factor into the outcome of this game.

Right off the top, we get the rare matchup between the number one scoring offense (Atlanta) against the number one scoring defense (New England). Historically, the Super Bowl champion tends to be the team with the top scoring defense, 6-1 overall. The most recent occurrence of this saw the Seahawks throttle the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII. While it does lend credence to the phrase “defense wins championships” that doesn’t necessarily mean that this is a done deal for the Patriots. There are a lot of factors at play in this game, and not one in particular will turn the game in a team’s favor. So let’s jump into this game and look at the most important matchups of Super Bowl LI.

Kyle Shanahan vs. Bill Belichick/Matt Patricia

We start this matchup breakdown looking at the coaching matchup that will likely dictate this game. The battle of x’s and o’s between Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and the New England brain trust of head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will be a real treat to watch. The first few drives will give us an idea of how each side will attack the other, but it’s the adjustments that are going to decide this game. In the immortal words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

For starters, we all know that Belichick and Patricia will likely look to limit the potential impact of Julio Jones. Shanahan shouldn’t be worried since the Falcons average 41.5 points per game and were 2-0 without Jones this season. That could mean that Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are become the focal point when the Falcons’ get into the redzone, which is the area where they are most effective. It is going to be a fantastic game to watch between these coaches, and should be a master class of in-game coaching moves.

Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman vs. New England’s Linebackers/Safeties

This is the single most important aspect of the Atlanta offense vs. New England defense matchup. How does New England plan to stop both of these running backs while limiting Julio Jones? It is a pick-your-poison scenario that I am not sure Belichick has the antidote.

Freeman and Coleman might very well be the best tandem of running backs in the NFL. They are not your typical thunder and lighting combination because they both interchangeable in this scheme. Freeman is normally the bell-cow while Coleman is usually the change-of-pace receiving back. They each can do the other’s job, which is what makes them so dangerous.

It is a complicated problem to solve because in order to properly cover one of them, the Patriots would likely have to call upon a safety like Duron Harmon to do the job. That could be playing right into the hands of the Falcons though. Not only could that open up Jones, but also that could get speedster Taylor Gabriel open deep down the field. So ideally, the Patriots might need to hope the linebackers can get the job done.

New England will be in a quandary for most of this game. They can stop the running game or the passing game, but they will be hard pressed to stop both. I tend to think they will look to stop the latter considering how dangerous that aspect of the Atlanta offense has been all season.

Tom Brady vs. Deon Jones/Atlanta’s Pass Rush

Okay so this is a bit of a cop out, but for the sake of time I had to combine the two Atlanta defensive aspects into one matchup. Now that I think of it though, it still works because in order to beat Tom Brady, the Falcons will need a total team effort to get the job done. This is Brady’s seventh Super Bowl appearance, and the only player on this defense with any experience in the big game is defensive end Dwight Freeney. Atlanta starts seven rookies or second-year players on this defense (eight, if they are in nickel or dime formation). That means all eleven players need to be on the same page because as we all know, Brady is calculated and methodical when running this offense.

If Atlanta has any chance of slowing down Brady, the first job is getting lined up correctly and not tipping its hand. Deon Jones will have the toughest job on this defense because he will be in charge of defensive play calling as the middle linebacker. That means he will have to keep his defense in check and be ready to adjust on the fly. Brady is no stranger to calling an audible (if you hear “Jordan” watch out).

Beating Tom Brady starts at the line of scrimmage before the play, but once the ball is snapped players have to make plays. This is why the Atlanta pass rush has the most important job once the ball is snapped. The common thread in most of Brady’s playoff and Super Bowl losses was the ability of the opposing defensive line to create a pass rush with minimal blitzing.

Over the span of his career, Brady has been a blitz-killer because he can get the ball out fast enough to negate the effect of the blitz. It is also one or two less bodies that are in coverage, so you begin to see the picture here. Freeney will have a role in this game, but the other defensive end Vic Beasley will have the most pressure on him to create havoc. Beasley led the NFL in sacks in just his second season in the league, and he will have the biggest job of all, trying to beat the New England tackles.

Beasley doesn’t even need to get a sack every time, the pressure is what is most important. Brady can be rattled if he takes a few early hits. If the edge rush can do its job, it could allow the defensive tackles to expose the weakness of Patriots offensive line, left guard Joe Thuney (52^nd rated guard by Pro Football Focus) and center David Andrews (25^th rated center, PFF). Wouldn’t you know it, Atlanta’s defensive captian Jonathan Babineaux is right in line to take advantage of that plus matchup.

This is all the most ideal scenario though, because if Atlanta can’t pull all of this off, Brady could shred them.

That’s it for me today. Tomorrow I’ll be back with Part 3 of the “No Huddle” Super Bowl LI Preview where I’ll go position by position to see who has the edge heading into the final Sunday of the season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.