With the turn of January to February, it can only mean we are that much closer to Super Bowl LI. I kicked off Shooting the Moon’s coverage of the big game yesterday with a list of the top offensive x-factors. Today, I’m looking at the most important matchups for Sunday. I think this game is rife with intriguing matchups, and all of them will factor into the outcome of this game.

Right off the top, we get the rare matchup between the number one scoring offense (Atlanta) against the number one scoring defense (New England). Historically, the Super Bowl champion tends to be the team with the top scoring defense, 6-1 overall. The most recent occurrence of this saw the Seahawks throttle the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII. While it does lend credence to the phrase “defense wins championships” that doesn’t necessarily mean that this is a done deal for the Patriots. There are a lot of factors at play in this game, and not one in particular will turn the game in a team’s favor. So let’s jump into this game and look at the most important matchups of Super Bowl LI.

Kyle Shanahan vs. Bill Belichick/Matt Patricia

We start this matchup breakdown looking at the coaching matchup that will likely dictate this game. The battle of x’s and o’s between Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and the New England brain trust of head coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will be a real treat to watch. The first few drives will give us an idea of how each side will attack the other, but it’s the adjustments that are going to decide this game. In the immortal words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

For starters, we all know that Belichick and Patricia will likely look to limit the potential impact of Julio Jones. Shanahan shouldn’t be worried since the Falcons average 41.5 points per game and were 2-0 without Jones this season. That could mean that Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are become the focal point when the Falcons’ get into the redzone, which is the area where they are most effective. It is going to be a fantastic game to watch between these coaches, and should be a master class of in-game coaching moves.

Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman vs. New England’s Linebackers/Safeties

This is the single most important aspect of the Atlanta offense vs. New England defense matchup. How does New England plan to stop both of these running backs while limiting Julio Jones? It is a pick-your-poison scenario that I am not sure Belichick has the antidote.

Freeman and Coleman might very well be the best tandem of running backs in the NFL. They are not your typical thunder and lighting combination because they both interchangeable in this scheme. Freeman is normally the bell-cow while Coleman is usually the change-of-pace receiving back. They each can do the other’s job, which is what makes them so dangerous.

It is a complicated problem to solve because in order to properly cover one of them, the Patriots would likely have to call upon a safety like Duron Harmon to do the job. That could be playing right into the hands of the Falcons though. Not only could that open up Jones, but also that could get speedster Taylor Gabriel open deep down the field. So ideally, the Patriots might need to hope the linebackers can get the job done.

New England will be in a quandary for most of this game. They can stop the running game or the passing game, but they will be hard pressed to stop both. I tend to think they will look to stop the latter considering how dangerous that aspect of the Atlanta offense has been all season.

Tom Brady vs. Deon Jones/Atlanta’s Pass Rush

Okay so this is a bit of a cop out, but for the sake of time I had to combine the two Atlanta defensive aspects into one matchup. Now that I think of it though, it still works because in order to beat Tom Brady, the Falcons will need a total team effort to get the job done. This is Brady’s seventh Super Bowl appearance, and the only player on this defense with any experience in the big game is defensive end Dwight Freeney. Atlanta starts seven rookies or second-year players on this defense (eight, if they are in nickel or dime formation). That means all eleven players need to be on the same page because as we all know, Brady is calculated and methodical when running this offense.

If Atlanta has any chance of slowing down Brady, the first job is getting lined up correctly and not tipping its hand. Deon Jones will have the toughest job on this defense because he will be in charge of defensive play calling as the middle linebacker. That means he will have to keep his defense in check and be ready to adjust on the fly. Brady is no stranger to calling an audible (if you hear “Jordan” watch out).

Beating Tom Brady starts at the line of scrimmage before the play, but once the ball is snapped players have to make plays. This is why the Atlanta pass rush has the most important job once the ball is snapped. The common thread in most of Brady’s playoff and Super Bowl losses was the ability of the opposing defensive line to create a pass rush with minimal blitzing.

Over the span of his career, Brady has been a blitz-killer because he can get the ball out fast enough to negate the effect of the blitz. It is also one or two less bodies that are in coverage, so you begin to see the picture here. Freeney will have a role in this game, but the other defensive end Vic Beasley will have the most pressure on him to create havoc. Beasley led the NFL in sacks in just his second season in the league, and he will have the biggest job of all, trying to beat the New England tackles.

Beasley doesn’t even need to get a sack every time, the pressure is what is most important. Brady can be rattled if he takes a few early hits. If the edge rush can do its job, it could allow the defensive tackles to expose the weakness of Patriots offensive line, left guard Joe Thuney (52^nd rated guard by Pro Football Focus) and center David Andrews (25^th rated center, PFF). Wouldn’t you know it, Atlanta’s defensive captian Jonathan Babineaux is right in line to take advantage of that plus matchup.

This is all the most ideal scenario though, because if Atlanta can’t pull all of this off, Brady could shred them.

That’s it for me today. Tomorrow I’ll be back with Part 3 of the “No Huddle” Super Bowl LI Preview where I’ll go position by position to see who has the edge heading into the final Sunday of the season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.