Here we go folks, the Divisional round of the playoffs is here. Last week was a pretty big dud, but these matchups should produce some magic on the field. The Divisional round has produced some of the most iconic moments in NFL history (The Immaculate Reception, Rodgers’ Game-Tying Hail Mary, etc.). So hopefully the play on the field this week can reach the bar that has been set as recently as last season (Packers-Cardinals in the Divisional round was easily the best game of last season).

Before I get into my matchup breakdowns and game picks, lets look back at how I did last week. I went 3-1 with the game picks, but went 2-2 against the spread. I completely whiffed on the Oakland-Houston game (thanks Connor Cook), and Green Bay blowing out New York came as a bit of a surprise. I think I made up for it on Monday, nailing the Clemson win over Alabama, but it’s a new week so let’s shoot for a 4-0 week across the board. Let’s jump right into the games this week.

Seattle vs. Atlanta (Sat. 4:35 PM, FOX)

The Divisional round hits the ground running with Seattle traveling to face Atlanta. Everyone is keying on the matchup between the high-flying Falcons offense against Seattle’s Legion of Boom, and rightly so. The Earl Thomas injury has been a huge point of emphasis on this battle, and there are definitely some concerns for Seattle without its eraser in the backend of the defense.

Seattle topped Atlanta all the way back in Week 6 but these teams are completely different since that first game. Seattle is banged up on defense, but the offense has gotten Thomas Rawls back to spark the running game. Atlanta has been running roughshod over opposing defenses and even got a new weapon in the form of receiver Taylor Gabriel.

In order for the Seahawks to have a good shot to pull off a road win, they will need to play a bit of “keep away” with the football. Atlanta averages over 30 points per game this season, which doesn’t bode well for Seattle historically. The Seahawks are 3-4-1 on the road this season, which already is a knock against them. Here’s a big stat to keep an eye on in this game. Over the past five seasons, Seattle is 0-11 when giving up more than 25 points on the road.

Game Pick: Atlanta              ATS Pick: Atlanta (-4.5)

 Houston vs. New England (Sat. 8:15 PM, CBS)

Okay, now this isn’t exactly the best matchup of the weekend. New England throttled Houston in Week 3 with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Houston’s defense has improved since then, much of it due to the long-awaited emergence of Jadeveon Clowney. Will that help Houston? A little bit. Will it change the outcome of this game? Not one bit. There is good reason for the Patriots being the heaviest playoff favorite since 1999.

New England is one of the toughest places to play in the postseason, and with the way Tom Brady has played this season, I just don’t see how Houston wins this game. You put any kind of talent around Brady and he’ll make them look like superstars. Obviously Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett are the top guys in this offense, but don’t sleep on Malcolm Mitchell and Dion Lewis. Mitchell has emerged as a viable redzone threat following the injury to Rob Gronkowski. Lewis is a Swiss Army knife for this offense. He can run between the tackles but is most dangerous when he catches the ball out of the backfield. Combined with Legarrette Blount, Lewis makes this backfield the most lethal skill position for this offense.

Game Pick: New England               ATS Pick: New England (-15.5)

Green Bay vs. Dallas (Sun. 4:40 PM, FOX)

Talk about how much things have changed over the course of a season. Dallas made a huge statement earlier this season by going into Green Bay and knocking off the Packers. That loss began a rough stretch for Green Bay in the middle of the season, losing five out of six games. However, that was before Aaron Rodgers made his “run the table” guarantee. Rodgers is the hottest player, on the hottest team in the NFL right now. Green Bay has reeled off seven wins in a row since that guarantee by its star quarterback.

I do worry about the absence of Jordy Nelson in this game for Green Bay; if you watched any Packers games in 2015 you will understand why. This offense is completely different without its top receiver in the mix. Randall Cobb was awesome last week, but is much better in the slot than playing at the “X” or “Z” receiver. That would mean Davante Adams is going to have to step up in the #1 receiver role in order for Green Bay to keep Cobb in his ideal spot in the offense.

Now we all know what Dallas does well, and it has allowed them to be efficient, effective, and dangerous on offense all season long. I do have some trust issues with a rookie quarterback in Dak Prescott having to beat the hottest quarterback in the game. This game is going to be a shootout given the way that both offenses can move the ball and score points. Ezekiel Elliott has been near impossible to stop in the running game, so the Green Bay defense will have its hands full trying to slow down the NFL’s top running back.

No matter where I look though, this game keeps circling back to the quarterbacks for me. It’s the known commodity versus the unknown in a crucial postseason matchup. This is one of the two games this weekend that are a coin toss in my opinion.

Game Pick: Green Bay        ATS Pick: Green Bay (+5)

Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City (Sun. 8:20 PM, NBC)

Let’s get the big news from today out of the way right now. This game was moved from 1:00 PM to 8:20 PM due to an ice storm in the forecast in Kansas City on Sunday. That could mean field conditions will be a question mark heading into this game. Luckily both teams are equipped to handle rough conditions, and could mean the running games for each side will be leaned on heavily.

Heading into this game, there were two things to keep in mind. You have a matchup of the hot team against a team that has a bit of history on its side. Pittsburgh has quietly won eight games in a row (Green Bay’s winning streak has gotten all of the press), while Kansas City is coming off of a bye week. Why is that important to know for the Chiefs? Andy Reid is 18-3 in his career the week after a bye.

That adds some more intrigue to this game, which I think could be the best of the weekend. Big Ben might be a little dinged up heading into this one, but as history has shown, he is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league and a bum ankle won’t hold him back. More importantly is the health of the rest of the Pittsburgh offense.

Le’Veon Bell has been the missing piece of some of the past playoff teams in Pittsburgh, and he showed exactly why last week. Bell broke Pittsburgh’s single-game playoff rushing record in his first career postseason game. He is Pittsburgh’s x-factor in this game due to his ability to open up the Steeler offense once he gets going on the ground. Bell forces defenses to respect the running game, and keep bodies off of Antonio Brown. Miami found that out the hard way last week.

Kansas City has been a team built to play in one-possession games or with a lead during the Andy Reid era. However, the emergence of rookie Tyreek Hill has added a game-breaking element to this team that has been lacking in recent years. Hill’s ability to score whenever he touches the ball is definitely the x-factor for Kansas City in this game. The Chiefs have found creative ways to get him the ball in space on offense, but Hill’s talent in the return game has easily been his best attribute.

This game is definitely a toss up between the game-breaking players on both sides and the solid defenses each team has put together. I would give the edge to Kansas City’s defense but Pittsburgh can definitely hold its own.

Game Pick: Pittsburgh       ATS Pick: Pittsburgh (+1)

That’s it for me this week, enjoy the weekend everyone. I’ll be back on Monday to recap the postseason games. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.