It’s finally here. In less than 24 hours, the NFL postseason will have officially started. Wild Card weekend normally packs a few surprises so we’ll have to see if this year brings us a shocker. Today’s “No Huddle” will look at every game and I will give my picks for each game and against the spread. Let’s take a look at how every game stacks up.
AFC Wild Card: Oakland vs. Houston (Sat. 4:35 PM, ESPN)
This isn’t exactly the best game to kick off the playoffs but its still playoff football nonetheless so beggars can’t be choosers. Oakland limps into this one having lost its star quarterback Derek Carr two weeks ago and Houston edged out Tennessee in the weak AFC South. In my opinion this game will ride on the arms of the quarterbacks here. Oakland has the firepower and offensive line to deal with Houston’s defense while the Texans offense can theoretically handle the Raiders defense.
Your starting quarterbacks will be third string rookie Connor Cook for Oakland and Brock Osweiler for Houston. Now we’ve all seen the disaster that Osweiler has been for the Texans this season. He was benched a few weeks ago in favor of Tom Savage, but as fate would have it, was injured in the regular season finale. Osweiler is forced back into the starting role, and I can still feel the collective shudder all the way from Houston while typing this sentence.
We don’t exactly know much about Cook as an NFL quarterback since he was the practice squad QB in Oakland until last week. I will say this about him though; Cook was a capable starter on some really good Michigan State teams in college. The question here is can he pull out a win in his first NFL start? It is the first time a rookie QB made is first start in the postseason.
In games like this where the quarterback play might be mediocre at best, you tend to look at the kicking game to see who has the edge. I’ll take the hefty-lefty Sebastian Janikowski over Nick Novak just about every time.
Game Pick: Oakland ATS Pick: Oakland (+4)
NFC Wild Card: Detroit vs. Seattle (Sat. 8:15 PM, NBC)
The nightcap on Saturday night features a matchup of strengths between the Seattle defense and the Detroit offense. Much has been made all week about whether or not the Lions actually deserve to be a playoff team. Eight fourth-quarter comebacks and a couple of late-season collapses by Tampa Bay and Washington helped punch a playoff ticket for Detroit. Its reward is a trip to Seattle to deal with the Legion of Boom the infamous 12th Man.
Seattle is near impossible to beat at home, but this Seahawks team is not nearly as strong as it has been in the past. The Legion of Boom is already without safety Earl Thomas, which opens up the deep part of the field, and safety Kam Chancellor has been banged up all season. Then on the other side of the ball, Seattle’s offensive line has been an issue all season and will make or break this team in any given game.
That being said, Detroit isn’t devoid of talent and has been able to hang around in games all season so you can’t exactly count them out of this game. Matthew Stafford has been great all year and can move the ball in the passing game. I would have felt a lot better about Detroit’s chances to pull off an upset had running back Theo Riddick not been placed on IR earlier this week. That leaves Zach Zenner to assume the majority of the carries in the backfield. Regardless, this is still a playoff game in Seattle and home-field advantage should be enough to get the Seahawks through this game.
Game Pick: Seattle ATS Pick: Seattle (-8)
AFC Wild Card: Miami vs. Pittsburgh (Sun. 1:05 PM, CBS)
We now move onto the action on Sunday and the second of three regular season rematches. Miami trounced Pittsburgh in the first game between these two. Don’t expect to see a similar outcome in this one though. The Steelers are in peak form right now while the Dolphins are shorthanded.
With Ryan Tannehill officially out of this game, there is no way the Pittsburgh will allow Jay Ajayi to run wild on them once again. If you recall, Ajayi ripped off a 200-yard performance in this first matchup. The Steelers defense is going to key on Ajayi and force backup quarterback Matt Moore to beat them.
The question will be whether or not Miami can score with this high-powered Pittsburgh offense. Pittsburgh’s Killer B’s are lethal especially when Le’Veon Bell gets going in the running game. Bell can control the flow of this game out of the backfield because he is as effective running between the tackles as he is in the passing game. That will allow Antonio Brown to work in single-coverage, which is like taking candy from a baby. Big Ben should be able to shred this average Miami secondary, especially in the friendly confines of Heinz Field.
Game Pick: Pittsburgh ATS Pick: Pittsburgh (-10.5)
NFC Wild Card: New York vs. Green Bay (Sun. 4:40 PM, FOX)
Okay folks, this is the game I think we are all waiting for this weekend. The two teams that most experts think can steal the NFC away from Dallas square off in the best matchup of the Wild Card round. It’s also the final regular season rematch of the round. We also get the added bonus of the playoff history between these teams. The Giants have won the last two postseason meetings before these teams, both of which were at Lambeau Field. Those wins also helped propel New York to a pair of Super Bowl wins. That definitely adds some fuel to an already fantastic matchup.
This game is all about the red-hot Green Bay offense against the incredibly stout New York defense. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire since making his “run the table” guarantee six weeks ago. He’ll face a defense that allows the second-least amount of points in the league.
Personally, I absolutely love this matchup between the New York secondary and the Green Bay receivers. With the way that Rodgers extends plays when under pressure, that will only put a bigger spotlight on this battle all day long. Jordy Nelson might not as fast as he was a couple of years ago, but the wily vet knows how to get himself open on these scramble plays.
A big x-factor in this strength-on-strength matchup will be the dual-threat ability of Ty Montgomery. He’s listed as a receiver, but Green Bay has used him almost exclusively as a running back during the second-half of the season. Montgomery adds a dimension to this offense that most teams just don’t have at its disposal. Granted this only started as a small package of plays until Eddie Lacy and James Starks got hurt (Starks had since returned, but Montgomery had won this job by then). Keep an eye on #88 in this game.
I really do have concerns about this New York offense coming into the playoffs. 26th in the NFL in points scored and 25th in yards gained. That is pretty bad for an offense that sports some serious talent at wide receiver. There are two issues that I’ve seen this year with the Giants offense.
The first is the running game. It is almost non-existent at this point, ranking near the bottom of the NFL in all of the key statistics. Rashad Jennings is really only in there for pass protection purposes, which diminishes the true value of rookie Paul Perkins. The Giants really only run the ball to keep defenses honest at this point.
My second issue with the Giants offense is more important than the lack of a running game. Eli Manning’s numbers might be in line with some of his better seasons but just watching this offense there is something seriously wrong with his game right now. He needs to be on his “A” game because there is a good matchup to take advantage here.
Green Bay’s pass defense has been okay at best this season, but still ranks near the bottom of the NFL in passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns, and net yards gained per attempt. The offensive line for New York will have to keep Manning upright because this front-seven has been much better since Clay Matthews has come back into the lineup.
I’m expecting on hell of a football game, and should set the bar for the level of play for the rest of the postseason. It’s a true toss up game here so sit back and enjoy this one.
Game Pick: Green Bay ATS Pick: New York (+5)
That’s it for me this week. Have a great weekend everyone and enjoy all of the playoff action. I’ll be back on Monday to recap the NFL action and anything big that breaks during the weekend. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.