Brace yourselves, the NFL postseason is finally here. 17 weeks of attrition has left us with 12 teams vying for the coveted Lombardi trophy on that first Sunday in February. I’ll have my postseason predictions as part of my matchup/pickem column, so today’s “No Huddle” will feature my power rankings of the playoff teams. Before I reveal my rankings, let’s set the table a little bit.

The round-trip road to Super Bowl LI begins on Saturday in Houston and it should be a bit of a bumpy ride. While all signs would point to a Dallas-New England showdown in the Super Bowl, I wouldn’t lock that one in just yet. The AFC is shaping up to be a three-team race while the NFC seems like it might be up for grabs (Dallas is still the favorite though).

Injuries certainly hampered much of the intrigue in the AFC with Derek Carr out indefinitely and Ryan Tannehill’s status for this week up in the air. The top three seeds get a clear advantage with guys named Brady, Roethlisberger, and Smith at quarterback. All while the bottom three seeds are stuck playing Connor Cook (Oakland), Matt Moore (Miami), and Brock Osweiler (Houston). It definitely saps some of the juice out of wild card weekend with one almost meaningless game (Oakland @ Houston) and another game that could be lopsided (Pittsburgh @ Miami).

It could all come down to which team earns the right to play New England for the AFC Championship. Pittsburgh (assuming they beat Miami) and Kansas City are polar opposites of each other, which should make for a fun game if they do play each other in the Divisional round. Pittsburgh touts a gun-slinging QB with a coach who plays the role of the gambler while Kansas City plays things conservative and close to the vest.

Things are definitely a little more compelling over in the NFC with everyone jockeying to take down the upstart Cowboys. Luckily for Dallas, the two teams with the best chances of defeating them play each other this weekend (New York @ Green Bay). Unlucky for Dallas, a Detroit upset of Seattle is the only thing keeping both teams away from them in the Divisional round.

Then on the other side of the NFC bracket things really go up in the air because we still have questions about the legitimacy of Atlanta, the consistency of Seattle, and the serendipity of Detroit.

Atlanta has the top-scoring offense in the NFL, but a sub-par defense. The Falcons can score with Dallas or Green Bay but can they stop anyone in the clutch? Playoff games rarely resemble a day at the OK Corral, so the jury is still out on whether or not Atlanta can get into a defensive battle.

Injuries to the defense and a poor offensive line have been the impetus a rollercoaster season for Seattle. Without the 12^th man behind them, can Seattle make a deep run? Inconsistency cost Seattle a first round bye, which means the road to Houston would likely mean stops in Atlanta and Dallas for a team that is 3-4-1 away from home.

Then we have Detroit, who has played with fire all season. Short of Matthew Stafford setting the NFL record for game winning, fourth quarter touchdowns, this team wouldn’t have come close to the postseason. The Lions may have gotten a dose of karma receiving a trip to Seattle in the Wild Card round after failing to hold off the Packers for the NFC North title.

Like I said, the road to Houston could get a little bumpy since there are a few teams that could legitimately make the long run into February and a bunch of teams that are true wild cards. Without further ado though, here are my playoff power rankings. I would like to point out these rankings used Super Bowl potential as one of my prime considerations.

(1) New England Patriots (14-2) – #1 Seed in the AFC

What more can be said about Tom Brady and this Patriots team? New England rightfully earned the top spot in my power rankings with an impressive end to the season despite the loss of Rob Gronkowski and the surprising performance of a star-less defensive unit. Earning the top seed is a nice feather in the cap, but has also been a key component of the playoff success during the Belichick-Brady era. Five out of the six Super Bowl appearances for New England have come when the Patriots were the AFC’s top seeded team.

(2) Dallas Cowboys (13-3) – #1 Seed in the NFC

If it weren’t for the Cowboys taking the season finale off against Philadelphia, I may have considered them for the top spot. That being said though, this is going to be a difficult team to beat. Dak Prescott has done a good job protecting the football, which has allowed Ezekiel Elliott and this offensive line to dominate games. Plus, this defense has been impressive all year with linebacker Sean Lee and company holding its own. Am I worried about that self-imposed bye week? A little bit, because the last thing you want to do is take Prescott out of his rhythm. Now he’ll have been out essentially two weeks before facing either the Giants or Packers.

(3) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – #3 Seed in the AFC

With the Killer B’s in tact heading into the playoffs, I think that the Steelers are in position to be the most dangerous team for New England in the AFC. Le’Veon Bell is the x-factor for the Steelers because he seems almost incapable of accounting for less than 120 all-purpose yards per game. That production is what unlocks the full potential of this offense, because that means teams can’t sit back and try to stop Antonio Brown. Versatility is an important thing to have this time of year and Pittsburgh’s offense has that in spades.

(4) Green Bay Packers (10-6) – #4 Seed in the NFC

Regardless of the sport, postseason success usually is all about getting hot at the right time. I present to you the hottest team in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers has this offense rolling right now despite injuries all over the unit. Jordy Nelson started slow, but might be one of the most dangerous pass catchers left in the playoffs. With the way this team has played over the final six weeks of the season, they can go play with anyone. Unfortunately, the Packers drew the toughest matchup of the Wild Card round so that sentiment will be put to the test right away.

(5) Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) – #2 Seed in the AFC

Just because the Chiefs barely make the top five, doesn’t mean I don’t respect their game. Toughness is a hallmark of past Super Bowl champions, and Kansas City is far from a cupcake. Stingy defense, ball-control on offense, and the x-factor of Tyreek Hill give the Chiefs a solid case to make a deep run in the postseason. Stealing the #2 seed from Oakland was a massive boost to Kansas City’s Super Bowl hopes ensuring that they get a home game at the vaunted Arrowhead Stadium. This offense will be under the spotlight, as past seasons’ failures have come from the inability for this offense to generate production against the NFL’s elite teams.

(6) New York Giants (11-5) – #5 Seed in the NFC

The Giants get the boost over its remaining NFC counterparts due to this defense. New York has put together a defensive unit that can carry a team to a Super Bowl. Now why aren’t they higher on this list you ask? It’s because I think this offense holds them back. At some point the Giants will have to be able to do more than throw the occasional slant to Odell Beckham Jr. hoping he breaks a big play for a touchdown. The downfall of this Giants team will be this offense if they can’t iron out the inconsistencies of this offense.

(7) Atlanta Falcons (11-5) – #2 Seed in the NFC

I already laid out my biggest questions about this Atlanta team, so I’ll get a little more positive here. Matt Ryan is having a career season, Julio Jones is healthy once again, and the Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman backfield combo is a game-changer. It’s not hard to see why this offense ranks so highly this year. Playing at home will be huge coupled with the prospects of avoiding Green Bay or New York in the Divisional round. Atlanta could easily make it to the NFC Championship game, I just question if they have what it takes to make the Super Bowl.

(8) Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) – #3 Seed in the NFC  

Losing out on a first round bye and the subsequent later round home games is a crushing blow to the already dim Super Bowl chances for the Seahawks. On any given week you just don’t know what team you are going to get. This offensive line has killed the potential for this offense all season, but we all know how things can be when things are going well. Defensively, the loss of All-Pro safety Earl Thomas might be even more of a negative factor than any inconsistent play. He was the “eraser” for this defense and opens the deep passing game up against a shorthanded Legion of Boom. Can they put it together for three games and make it to the Super Bowl? Sure, but based on what we’ve seen, it’s a slim chance that happens.

(9) Detroit Lions (10-6) – #6 Seed in the AFC

(10) Miami Dolphins (10-6) – #6 Seed in the NFC

Both teams are really similar in my eyes. Detroit pulled off a record amount of fourth-quarter comebacks while Miami reeled off a big winning streak during one of the easiest stretches of games in the league. Each team does a few things well, but the chances of them pulling off an upset in the first round are pretty slim. Matthew Stafford for the Lions, and the potential Miami has in its weapons gives both an edge over the bottom two teams.

(11) Houston Texans (9-7) – #4 Seed in the AFC

Houston’s defense has certainly held up this season without J.J. Watt, but that isn’t this team’s problem. Brock Osweiler is the issue here. He has been dismal all season, holding back this offense at every turn. Then just when Bill O’Brien makes the move to Tom Savage and this offense finally showed some signs of life, Savage gets hurt. So it looks like Osweiler gets the nod against Oakland. Houston could win that game, but they will have no shot against New England.

(12) Oakland Raiders (12-4) – #5 Seed in the AFC

The minute Derek Carr went down for the rest of the year that was it for the Raiders. A buddy of mine asked me to give him three reasons why Oakland was so good this year. I jokingly asked him if Carr could be all three reasons. In reality I could have said the offensive line, easy schedule, or the weapons on offense. The more I thought about it, the more I believed that this team needs Carr at quarterback to have a legitimate chance to make any kind of run in the playoffs. Even if they get past Houston, the Patriots will make short work of them without its star quarterback. Last week alone showed why Derek Carr would have been a serious contender for the MVP this season had he not gotten hurt. It was such a shame to see happen to a team with such promise this season.

 

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my year-end awards and fantasy playoff picks in the final “Reality of Fantasy” of the season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.