Welcome to Super Bowl week folks! I’m doing a full week of “No Huddle” to get you ready for the big game on Sunday. Shooting the Moon will have you covered from every angle with matchups, x-factors, and even prop bets. As always there is a ton of glitz and glamour in the lead-up to the game, but here I’ll be focusing on the actual game itself.

We’ll start today by ranking the players who will be offensive x-factors in Super Bowl LI. Obviously we all think that Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Julio Jones, and Julian Edelman will factor greatly into the outcome on Super Sunday so this will be a list of guys you should keep an eye on because they will likely be the unsung heroes of the big game.

(1) Dion Lewis, RB, New England

Of all the running backs for the Patriots, I believe that Dion Lewis could have the greatest impact on Sunday. Atlanta’s defense is young and flies around the field. The Falcons have linebackers that can cover the field sideline-to-sideline, but I don’t think there is anyone that can cover Lewis in open space. He is a dynamic threat in this offense, and in the return game, which puts him at the top of the list of potential x-factors. Lewis’ three-touchdown performance against Houston is evidence of the just what he can do when he maximizes his impact on the game.

(2) Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta

Many people who play fantasy football know his name, but after Sunday, everyone should recognize the name Devonta Freeman. He has quickly become one of the top dual-threat backs in the NFL in two seasons as the starter in Atlanta. Freeman is the only player in the last two seasons to gain 1,500+ yards from scrimmage and score 10+ touchdowns. His ability to make defenders miss is only bested by Dion Lewis, but Freeman is no slouch in the open field. Even when his rushing numbers are down, Matt Ryan can still get him going in the passing game (54 catches for 462 yards and two touchdowns during the regular season; eight catches for 122 yards and one touchdown this postseason). If New England decides to take Julio Jones away defensively, look for a heavy dose of Freeman and the next guy on this list.

(3) Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta

With Freeman, Tevin Coleman is part of arguably the best duo of running backs in the NFL. Freeman is the thunder to Coleman’s lightning. While Coleman doesn’t get a ton of opportunities in this offense, mostly due to the effectiveness of Freeman, he is a threat to score any time he touches the football. Ideally, he should do his best work catching the ball out of the backfield or lined up at wide receiver. Coleman could potentially be a matchup nightmare for New England since there isn’t a linebacker on that roster who can match his speed, and putting a defensive back on him could open up one of the three receivers downfield. Keep an eye on where Coleman lines up and how New England defends him, that alone could have a profound impact on this game.

(4) Chris Hogan, WR, New England

This isn’t an overreaction to his big game in the AFC Championship game. Chris Hogan is the definition of an x-factor for this New England offense. Hogan is the third option in this passing game at best, but he always seems to find a way to get open deep down the field. I doubt he will put up the type of numbers he had in that game against Pittsburgh, mostly due to the fact that Atlanta will actually try to cover him (seriously, Hogan didn’t have a defender within five yards of him against Pittsburgh). Tom Brady is always looking for that soft spot in a defense, and when defenses treat Hogan like the forgotten man, TB12 makes you pay.

(5) Mohamed Sanu, WR, Atlanta

Before everyone starts calling me a homer for putting a Rutgers guy on this list, let me explain why he should be here. Sanu is going to have a big role to play in this game since New England does a great job at taking away an offense’s best weapons. That mean Julio Jones will see a lot of defenders, and there will be a plan to slow down Atlanta’s running back duo. That means Sanu will be tasked with making some big plays for the Falcons on Sunday. He has scored touchdowns in both playoff games, and his ability to play physical in the redzone will be a huge advantage for him. I also love the matchup against fellow Scarlet Knight, Logan Ryan.

 

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with another installment of the “No Huddle” Super Bowl preview, where I’ll look at the top individual matchups to watch. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Well it’s certainly been an interesting week between the NBA and college basketball. The week of the underdog is causing issues for some of the NBA elite, while totally shifting the balance of power in the NCAA. In this week’s edition of “Heat Check” I’ll attempt to figure out what is going on with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Chicago Bulls. I also have a few thoughts on the wild week in the NCAA.

Before I jump into the play on the court, let me quickly give my two cents on the final NBA All-Star rosters. Just like any year there are going to be debatable selections to both teams. Portland point guard Damien Lillard was definitely a snub but with the depth at guard in the Western Conference, you need to be on the top of your game to earn coveted spot in the All-Star game.

Which brings me to the biggest snub from yesterday’s announcement of the final rosters. Paul Millsap making the team over Joel Embiid was a pretty terrible choice. Embiid is in the midst of a Rookie of the Year season, and is singlehandedly changing the fortune of the 76ers. A minutes restriction and rest management should not have cost him a spot to be an All-Star. There might not be a better big man playing right now than the young star from Philadelphia. Okay, before I delve into a full on rant, lets get into the heart of the action from this week.

What’s Wrong With Cleveland?

When I gave my midseason power rankings, I was careful to place the Spurs ahead of the Cavaliers. My main reasoning for that is that this is usually the time of the year where a LeBron-led Cavs squad goes cold for a little while. That was before San Antonio beat Cleveland in overtime, and before things in “The Land” started to get a little crazy.

After the loss to the Spurs, Cleveland was 5-5 since the start of 2017, but that isn’t a bad loss by any stretch of the imagination. Dropping a game on Monday against New Orleans, without Anthony Davis, is a pretty bad loss. Then a frustrated LeBron compounds it by telling the media that “we need another f***ing playmaker.”

Wednesday rolls around and reports surface that the Knicks offered Carmelo Anthony for Kevin Love, and that Cleveland rejected the offer. That night, Sacramento comes into Cleveland and upsets the defending champs in overtime. Yikes. In a postgame interview, LeBron commented on the rejected Carmelo trade saying that “we can’t play fantasy basketball.”

LeBron is right and wrong with his comments. Outside of the big three, there are nothing but specialists on this Cleveland roster, especially with the streaky J.R. Smith out injured. So yeah, the Cavs need to figure out a way to get a playmaker on this roster. However, losing Kevin Love wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, especially if it can gain Cleveland a playmaker and some more resources.

Obviously, LeBron knows that they can make the Finals with the current roster. This is about making the road there easier on him. James currently is averaging 37.6 on the season, but over 40 minutes during this stretch. Then you have the prospects of playing Golden State in the Finals which right now, I’m not sure how Cleveland matches up.

This is a rough patch for Cleveland but it could be indicative of a larger problem that this roster might not be capable of winning back-to-back NBA championships. Now you add to this mix the issue between LeBron and Cavs owner Dan Gilbert over the cost of the total roster salary, and you can see why there are certainly some serious problems right now for the defending champs.

Dysfunction in Chicago

When the Bulls handed the reigns of the team over to Jimmy Butler, we all could agree that was the logical move towards the future. Then they signed future Hall of Famer Dwayne Wade and the beleaguered Rajon Rondo during free agency. Some thought that this was an intriguing mix of talented players who could run an aggressive, slashing offense led by Butler. Others saw possibly the worst shooting backcourt in the league, and a combination that is destined to fail in a big way before the end of the season.

Well any of you in the latter portion of that crowd got to pat yourself on the back this week when the tension in the Chicago locker room made its way into the media. Butler and Wade both publically called out the younger teammates on the roster, blaming their lack of effort every night as a reason for the downward spiral. Then Rondo fired back by dropping a hell of a post on Instagram, calling out Butler and Wade for airing the team’s dirty laundry and not handling this like professionals.

None of this is going to fix the issue that this roster just doesn’t work as constructed. They can make nice in the locker room but there just isn’t enough on-court chemistry to make this work. Don’t be surprised if both Rondo and Wade are traded by the end of February.

A Taste of March Madness in Late January

It has been a bad week to be a top ranked team in the country in college basketball. We haven’t even reached Saturday yet and five of the top ten teams in the country already took a loss this week. That includes three of the top four (Villanova, Kansas, and Kentucky). That means tomorrow’s Kansas-Kentucky showdown will likely mean who sticks around in the top five, with a bad loss knocking the loser out of the top ten completely.

All of this turmoil in the top ten means that Gonzaga will likely take over as the top team in the country following this wild week. This week is also setting the tone for the rest of the season. There isn’t a dominant team this season and anyone can lose on a given night. Settle in folks, the rest of the regular season is going to be great but I think we are in for one of the craziest NCAA tournaments in recent memory.

That’s it for me this week. I’ll be back on Monday to recap the weekend. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

With the Pro Bowl taking center stage this week, this gives us a little time to look back on the year that was in the NFL. Today’s “No Huddle” will look at my preseason predictions prior to Week 1, and I’ll be handing out my picks for the NFL awards. It was another exciting year of football, and I still can’t believe that Super Bowl LI is only eleven days away.

Reviewing my predictions wasn’t easy, especially knowing all year that I totally blew it with my Super Bowl pick (Thanks a lot Cardinals). Arizona, Carolina, and Denver, three of the powers from a season ago, totally fell apart in 2016 and failed to capitalize on the momentum they built from a season ago. I may have gotten seven out of the twelve playoff teams correct, but the NFC was a total crapshoot. I nailed most of the AFC, getting all four division winners right but missed both wild card teams.

Dallas, Oakland, and Miami came out of nowhere this season to make a playoff run. Derek Carr’s MVP-level season carried Oakland to the precipice of the AFC West title and a first round bye before breaking his leg on Christmas Eve. Miami rode a big winning streak in the middle of the season and snuck into the playoffs as the #6 seed in the AFC. Then there was Dallas. I thought the Tony Romo injury would’ve killed the Cowboys this season. Little did I, or anyone else, know that Dak Prescott would have the best rookie year ever for a quarterback and lead Dallas to the top seed in the NFC.

Unfortunately, that is the way that things go in the NFL. Injuries and questionable offseason moves can crush a great team while the unexpected heroes can elevate a middling team into the playoffs. Here is a quick look at my preseason playoff picks and the way things actually went (my picks in Italics):

NFC East – Dallas, 13-3 (NY Giants, 10-6)

NFC North – Green Bay, 10-6 (Green Bay, 13-3)

NFC South – Atlanta, 11-5 (Carolina, 12-4)

NFC West – Seattle, 10-5-1 (Arizona, 12-4)

Wild Cards – NY Giants, 11-5, Detroit, 9-7 (Seattle, 11-5, Tampa Bay, 10-6)

 

AFC East – New England, 14-2 (New England, 11-5)

AFC North – Pittsburgh, 11-5 (Pittsburgh, 12-4)

AFC South – Houston, 9-7 (Houston, 10-6)

AFC West – Kansas City, 12-4 (Kansas City, 11-5)

Wild Cards – Oakland, 12-4, Miami 10-6 (Denver, 10-6, Cincinnati, 10-6)

NFC Championship – Atlanta over Green Bay (Arizona over Green Bay)

AFC Championship – New England over Pittsburgh (NE over Pittsburgh)

Super Bowl LI – Atlanta vs. New England (Arizona over NE)

I would say my biggest oversight this year was not trusting the Atlanta Falcons. The signs were there for this offense to be prolific. They signed an All-Pro center to anchor the offensive line in Alex Mack, as well as signing Mohamed Sanu to upgrade the receiving corps. Taylor Gabriel was a real surprise in this offense and added another guy who can score from anywhere on the field. However, I did not see this defense holding up its end of the bargain considering Atlanta would be using primarily rookies and second-year players (seven out of the eleven starters in fact).

One of my main concerns heading into this season was the play of Matt Ryan. Last season he was atrocious in the redzone, throwing almost as many interceptions as touchdowns. I noted in the preseason that he would need to improve exponentially in that area for this team to succeed and prevent another second-half collapse like in 2015. Not only did Ryan clean things up in the redzone, but also he improved his numbers across the board in 2016. It is not hard to figure out why the Falcons will be playing in the Super Bowl in a week and a half. This brings me to my picks for the NFL Awards.

Most Valuable Player – Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

The minute Derek Carr went down with a broken leg, this pick became a no-brainer for me. You could make a case for Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, but this was Matt Ryan’s year. His numbers were gaudy in 2016 and that might be an understatement.

Ryan completed 69.9 percent of his passes while throwing for 4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Year two in the Kyle Shanahan offense certainly suited Ryan well as he set new career highs in all of the major passing statistics and a career low in interceptions. A deeper look at Ryan’s stats really shows how impressive his season was in 2016.

“Matty Ice” averaged 309.0 passing yards per game with a passer rating of 117.1, both are new career bests for the former Boston College star. The numbers that really jumped out at me were his 7.1 TD percentage on passing attempts, and the 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt (the adjustment accounts for deep passes and INTs).

Offensive Player of the Year – David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

There is a strong chance that this award goes to Ezekiel Elliott when the AP hands out these awards, but for my money David Johnson should win this award. His 2016 season encapsulates why this award exists. Surpassing 2,000 all-purpose yards is an impressive feat and Johnson should be rewarded for that effort. Just look at this stat line and then try to explain to me how anyone else was the offensive player of the year in 2016.

1,239 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry, 16 rushing touchdowns, 80 catches, 879 receiving yards, 11.0 yards per reception, and four receiving touchdowns.

No alternative facts here, that is sheer production. The preseason comparisons to Marshall Faulk from Arizona’s general manager definitely weren’t off the mark.

Defensive Player of the Year – Von Miller, LB/DE, Denver Broncos

This was a very difficult award to pick for 2016. There was really no one that stood out during the final month of the regular season. That isn’t to say that there weren’t a bunch of guys deserving of this award. Khalil Mack, Landon Collins, and Vic Beasley will all garner well-deserved praise but I’m going to go with Von Miller here. 13.5 sacks and 24 quarterback knockdowns were enough to make Miller one of the most effective and disruptive pass rushers in the NFL in 2016. A sack-less December might cost him this award amongst the sportswriters, but in a year where no one really took this race by storm, Miller should finally get his first DPOY award.

Comeback Player of the Year – Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers

Tearing an ACL at the age of 30 should have been the end of Jordy Nelson as an elite wide receiver in the NFL. However, Nelson had other ideas and picked up his career right where he left off following a terrific 2014. It took some time to get back in the flow of the offense but once he did, the Rodgers-Nelson connection was back to being unstoppable once again. Nelson led the league in receiving touchdowns with 14 and caught 97 passes for 1,257 yards. Not too shabby for a 31-year old receiver coming off of reconstructive knee surgery.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

This is really a two-horse race between both of the Dallas rookies. While this rookie class was incredibly productive across the board, Elliott and Dak Prescott are head and shoulders above the rest. That being said, I’m going with the guy that ran like a thoroughbred all season long. Elliott was the NFL’s leading rusher in 2016, and is looking like a once-in-a-generation talent. There is no question that Prescott deserves this award, but the production from Elliott was too good to ignore.

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Joey Bosa, DE, San Diego Chargers

It is a strange trend that both defensive awards are tough to pick due to the lack of standout and consistent defensive performances. However, Joey Bosa seems like the most deserving candidate for this award. A contract dispute forced him to miss most of training camp, and an injury forced him to miss an early portion of the season. But once Bosa got into the lineup in October, he immediately began to make an impact for the Chargers defense. Four sacks in his first three games was one hell of a way to make a debut. Bosa did have a quiet stretch in the middle of the season, but he closed the season with an impressive stretch. He finished the season with at least one sack in his final five games to finish the year with 10.5 sacks (five short of league leader Vic Beasley).

Coach of the Year – Jack Del Rio, Oakland Raiders

Okay, now this award is likely going to Jason Garrett for obvious reasons (nurturing a fifth round pick as the starting quarterback, going 13-3 with him, etc.). Plus, Bill Belichick has already reached the level where he could win this award every year and no one would bat an eye but where would the fun be in that.

I’m going to give some credit where credit is due though. Jack Del Rio helped turn a 7-9 team in 2015 into a 12-4 team that had a legitimate shot to make a deep run in the playoffs before losing its MVP candidate at quarterback.

I don’t there was a coach in the league who routinely would risk it all more than Del Rio in 2016. He did it though to instill a belief in his young team that they could compete with the rest of the NFL. Week 1 on the road in New Orleans, he knew that when they scored, they were going for the win. That comeback victory sparked something in this Raiders team, and it wouldn’t be the last time that Del Rio would make a ballsy call that paid off either. He has Oakland ready to be a perennial contender from 2017 and beyond.

That’s it for me today, I’ll have a new edition of “Heat Check” up Friday. I’ll be out covering St. Augustine vs. Millville tomorrow, which you can watch on SNJToday.com. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Happy Monday! This weekend was kind of a bummer for football, unless you are a fan of New England or Atlanta. Today’s “Weekend Recap” will look at the conference championships while looking ahead towards Super Bowl LI in two weeks. I’ll also be talking about the Cavaliers-Spurs thriller from Saturday night and give you the college basketball team to watch as we head into the final stretch of the regular season. There is a decent amount to get to so let’s jump right into the recap.

Two Games, Two Blowouts, and Super Bowl LI is Set

Yikes, didn’t see those games going that way. For the first time in 40 years, 19+ points decided both conference championship games. In the AFC Championship game, New England dominated Pittsburgh, and once Le’Veon Bell left the game in the first quarter with a groin injury you could sense that was it for the Steelers. Chris Hogan was literally wide open all game long, and Tom Brady made Pittsburgh pay for those defensive lapses to the tune of nine catches, 180 yards, and two touchdowns for the former Monmouth football player and Penn State lacrosse walk-on. Without Bell, the Patriots were able to double-team Antonio Brown all night long and force the younger receivers to try to beat them… they didn’t.

It’s the record ninth Super Bowl appearance for New England, and the seventh of the Brady-Belichick era. Belichick also surpassed the legendary Don Shula for the most Super Bowl appearances for a coach in NFL history. The Deflategate Revenge Tour will ride into Houston, and the storyline of Roger Goodell handing Brady the Lombardi Trophy should certainly be talked about at length over the next two weeks.

Over on the NFC side of things, there were no excuses for what Atlanta did to Green Bay. It was simply the better team putting the pedal down and never letting up. The Falcons scored early and often en route to its first NFC Championship since 1998. Presumptive MVP Matt Ryan added another incredible performance to his resume for the season, throwing for 392 yards, four touchdowns, and added one rushing touchdown for good measure.

An early missed field goal by Mason Crosby and a redzone fumble by Aaron Ripkowski sealed Green Bay’s fate by the start of the second quarter. Atlanta had all of the momentum and there was no stopping that offense after that. The Falcons were up 24-0 by halftime and Green Bay would only get as close as 22 points in the second half.

What is set up now is one hell of a matchup for Super Bowl Sunday in two weeks. Atlanta boasts the top scoring offense in the NFL while New England has the top scoring defense in the league. The previous five meetings between the top offense and top defense in the Super Bowl have trended towards the defense (4-1 in such meetings). The early line from Vegas has New England favored by three, and it’s the highest over/under in Super Bowl history (58 points). There will be plenty more to dive into over the next two weeks, but this could potentially be a great Super Bowl.

San Antonio Outlasts Cleveland in OT

 

ESPN got the game of the weekend to kick off its Saturday night primetime slate of NBA games. San Antonio (#2 in my NBA rankings) pulled off an overtime victory on the road in “The Land” over the defending champion Cavaliers (#3 in my NBA rankings) 118-115. The star of the game was Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard, who dropped a career-high 41 points in the victory, which included the game-sealing steal and dunk in the closing seconds of overtime.

It was a nice win for San Antonio but we all know that both of these teams have bigger things on their minds than winning a regular season game. Each team is trying to upend Golden State in a couple of months in the playoffs. That being said though, it was an incredible basketball game and has me excited for what’s to come after the All-Star break in the Association.

Keep Calm and Bear Down

The top story in college basketball over the weekend was the return of sophomore guard Allonzó Trier to the Arizona lineup for its showdown with UCLA. The Wildcats were a solid lineup before, but with Trier back in the fold this team has the look of one that could be cutting down the nets in March. Arizona stifled a great offensive team in UCLA due in large part to their length on the defensive end of the floor.

Trier’s road back to the basketball court has been marked with a ton of uncertainty following a car accident in the offseason and a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs in the preseason. While many thought the Wildcats would not see Trier suit up this season, there had been growing rumors that he would win his appeal with the NCAA and be back in time for the Los Angeles road trip.

In today’s reveal of the latest top-25 rankings, Arizona moved from #13 to #7. This is a team that has top-five potential, a favorite to win the Pac-12, and could be in line for a coveted number-one seed come Selection Sunday. Keep an eye on Arizona because they are making a strong run to the top of the NCAA. “Bear Down” indeed.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “No Huddle” to recap my predictions from August and hand out my picks for the NFL awards. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Here we go folks. Quite possibly the best weekend of the football season is here, conference championship Sunday is just around the corner. Today’s “No Huddle” will be breaking down both games and I’ll be giving you my picks. So let’s set the stage before we dive into these games.

There is a ton of numbers being thrown around in the media in the lead up to Sunday. The one set of numbers jumped out to me are the records of the favorites from the past two seasons. In the past two seasons, the betting favorites in the conference championship games are 4-0 straight up, and 3-1 against the spread. I know it’s a small sample size but it’s a trend worth being cognizant of as we head into the weekend. Another number worth knowing is the record of betting favorites this postseason. So far in the playoffs, the betting favorites are 6-2 straight up and against the spread (Dallas and Kansas City broke the undefeated run of the favorites.

Now, you are probably wondering why I’m using these numbers before we get into the breakdowns. Well at this stage of the season, recognizing these trends are worth knowing, especially if you are planning to throw a little money down on these games. I’m not saying that these will dictate how these games will pan out but there is always value in knowledge.

In terms of the actual matchups, I’m very excited for both of these games. This is potentially one of the best groups of quarterbacks to square off in the conference title games. The combined quarterback rating of Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, and Roethlisberger currently sits at 107.0, which is easily one of the best aggregate ratings in postseason history.

We also have two different types of trends working against each other heading into this weekend. I’ve noted a few times during the latter half of the season that teams with a first round bye have won the Super Bowl 18 out of 26 times since the NFL went to the current playoff format. That certainly bodes well for the chances of New England and Atlanta based on the historical numbers.

The second trend is the winning streaks of the underdogs. Much is made in any postseason about the threat of a team getting hot at the right time. Pittsburgh is currently riding a nine-game winning streak, while Green Bay is on an eight-game streak of its own. Both teams have been playing playoff-type games for almost two months and have found a formula to keep reeling off wins.

I’ve been on a bit of a run with my picks since the beginning of the postseason. I’m 7-1 with my game picks and 6-2 against the spread, aided by my 4-0 week across the board last week. It should be one hell of a day on Sunday for these games, so lets jump into the breakdowns.

NFC Championship: Green Bay vs. Atlanta (Sun. 3:05 PM, FOX)

We’re getting started with a bang on Sunday with two of the best offenses in football squaring off. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are likely going to be the top-two in MVP voting, which should make for quite a quarterback duel. Both men have pretty juicy matchups to exploit with the opposing defenses as well.

Ryan and the Atlanta offense is the number one rated offense in the NFL, putting up over 30 points per game this season. The Falcons are coming off a game in which they shredded the vaunted, but shorthanded Legion of Boom from Seattle. Confidence is at an all time high in Atlanta with the way this offense can operate. Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel present all sorts of challenges in the secondary for opposing defenses. Add into the mix the receiving abilities of running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman and it’s very easy to see why this offense has been so lethal all year long.

Green Bay will have its hands full trying to slow down this prolific offense. The Packers have the 31^st ranked pass defense in the NFL, so it’s not too hard to see where Atlanta will look to attack. They will have to get after Matt Ryan and keep him from getting the ball out to his weapons on the outside. Green Bay is capable of doing that with Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, and Julius Peppers. It will be interesting to see what Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers will cook up for the Falcons offense.

Obviously the Packers aren’t slouches on the offensive end either. Rodgers currently leading the fourth ranked offense in the NFL, and in recent weeks you could make the argument that this is the second-best offense compared to Atlanta. The run that Rodgers is on right now is incredible, and dare I say, historic. He has only thrown one interception in his last ten games (both last week), and has racked up 24 touchdowns during this stretch.

The issue for the Packers right now on offense is health, especially at wide receiver. Jordy Nelson is dealing with broken ribs, and could miss his second straight game. Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison are also banged up but are more likely to play that Nelson as of now. Missing Nelson certainly takes away some of the punch of this offense but with the way Rodgers is playing, as long as he has Randall Cobb, Adams, and Allison he should be okay. The tight ends will definitely be an integral part of the offense again, Richard Rodgers and Jared Cook saw an uptick in their production last week due in part to the Nelson injury.

If Atlanta has any chance of slowing down the red-hot Rodgers, a big key will be the play of Vic Beasley. He has the talent to be a Von Miller-type playmaker on defense, but this is the game where he will need to prove it. As we have seen over and over again with Green Bay, if Rodgers has time to throw, he will make defenses pay dearly. Without their shutdown corner Desmond Trufant, who was placed on injured reserve in late November, the pressure will be on the pass rushers to make a big difference in this game.

Vegas odds makers seem to think this will be a high scoring affair, as do I. The over/under is sitting at 61 points, which is the highest number for a playoff game in at least five years. Definitely be ready for a shootout between these two teams similar to the 33-32 thriller back in October. In my opinion I think this game is a toss up. As good as the Falcons have been all season, I’m finding it pretty hard to count out Rodgers. Sit back and enjoy the ride for this one.

Game Pick: Atlanta              ATS Pick: Green Bay (+5.5)

 AFC Championship: Pittsburgh vs. New England (Sun. 6:40 PM, CBS)

Over on the AFC side, we have a battle of the old guard between New England and Pittsburgh. If there is one prediction I was spot on about back in August, it was that these two teams would be meeting in the AFC Championship game (probably the only one).

Now there is a key matchup here to keep an eye on because this will likely dictate how this game will play out. Pittsburgh has a vaunted offense in terms of the talent with the Killer B’s (Big Ben, Brown, and Bell), but last week was a bit forgettable. Pittsburgh absolutely has to convert redzone opportunities into touchdowns this week. Chris Boswell kicking more than three field goals will likely mean the Steelers will be sent home packing.

Scoring in the redzone against New England will be no easy task either. The Patriots bend but usually don’t break down by the goal line. New England has the top-ranked scoring defense in the NFL, allowing only 15.6 points per game. Even more impressive is the percentage of opposing drives that end in an offensive score. New England only allows points on 26.7 percent of opponent possessions, which averages out to 1.37 points per drive.

Look for Pittsburgh to lean on Le’Veon Bell to fix the redzone issue. He has amassed a gaudy 332 yards rushing in two playoff games, both of which he has set a franchise record for single-game rushing in a postseason game. Pittsburgh will have to get creative with how they get Bell the ball in clutch situations, but as I’ve said all season, he is the key to this offense.

Big Ben will also need to protect the football much better than he did last week, and in his career against New England. Roethlisberger has throw six interceptions in eight games against the Patriots (3-5 in his career against New England). In his four conference championship games, Roethlisberger is 3-1, but has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions.

For New England, Tom Brady will look to continue the incredible success he has had against the Steelers. In nine games against Pittsburgh, Brady is 7-2 in his career, throwing for 24 touchdowns and three interceptions. You don’t have to look too far to figure out what Pittsburgh’s defense will need to do to beat New England. Obviously they will need to flip that script to have a shot to win this game, which is easier said than done.

Bud Dupree is the guy I’m looking at for Pittsburgh on defense. He will need to wreak havoc on the Pats offensive line and get pressure on Brady. Pittsburgh will need to draw up a few exotic blitzes in order to free up Dupree on the edge. The one common denominator in New England’s playoff losses is the amount of pressure Brady faces. The Giants and more recently, the Broncos have shown that there is a blueprint to keep Brady off-balance in the pocket.

I think points could be at a premium in this game with two very familiar opponents facing off in a game of this magnitude. Right now I would have to give a slight edge to New England since this game is in Foxborough.

Game Pick: New England               ATS Pick: Pittsburgh (+6)

That’s it for me today, I’ll be back on Monday to recap the weekend in the sports world. Enjoy the games this weekend, it should be a lot of fun to watch. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

“Heat Check” is finally back! This time for good, as this will be a weekly column talking about the best in the NBA, and the occasional college basketball post. I’ll keep regular power rankings of the top teams in the Association, but I do want to have a keen eye on some of the more interesting developments during the year.

Which brings me to a grassroots movement from the City of Brotherly Love. Yes, the Philadelphia 76ers are finally becoming relevant after three long years of doing everything possible to put together the worst possible roster. A more simple term for this is “tanking,” but no matter what you call it, the Sixers became the laughingstock of the league for trying to lose in the short term to win in the long term.

Last night’s 94-89 victory over the Toronto Raptors was the first fruit in a three year stretch marked by attrition and cautiously optimistic patience. It was the first signature win for those that have learned to “Trust the Process.” That mantra is the only thing that Sixers fans have had to bring them solace following three years of tanking. Hearing that mantra chanted over and over as Joel Embiid securing a win for Philly over Toronto, you could feel that things are starting to change for the Sixers. If you were in the building, you couldn’t help but get wrapped up in the growing confidence of this young team that is evolving right before your eyes.

When former general manager Sam Hinkie started what would now become known as “The Process,” no one really knew what to expect. A draft night trade three and a half years ago kickstarted the rebuild, and sent a clear message to the fans. No more mediocrity. Hinkie realized that in the NBA, toiling away in the middle of the pack is never going to bring you a championship. You needed to put together a core of All-Star caliber players and free agency isn’t a surefire way of getting it done (Knicks fans can certainly agree there). Analytically, he surmised that the best way to get those elite-level talents was to tear down the roster and build through the draft. Hinkie decided to play the odds and use the Draft Lottery to acquire those top talents.

That meant a great deal of patience would be required from the ownership group. It also meant Philadelphia fans couldn’t call for the jobs of the men in charge for once in the storied history of the sporting city. Hinkie and his hand picked coach Brett Brown were going to need time to, literally, build a winner.

So trading away 23-year old point guard Jrue Holiday, who was coming off of his first All-Star season, for a 19-year old center recovering from a torn ACL signaled that this was a long-term rebuild. Nerlens Noel was that first piece of “The Process,” but also set a precedent for the type of player that the Sixers were willing to go after, especially when they didn’t have the top pick in the draft. Philadelphia was willing to wait for an elite level talent to get healthy, or finally get to the league.

That precedent would net the Sixers two franchise cornerstones following a 19-63 season in 2013-14. Philadelphia used the third pick to select center Joel Embiid out of Kansas, who was recovering from a stress fracture in his back. Then the Sixers would make a trade with Orlando to acquire the rights to a Croatian forward playing in Turkey, named Dario Saric. Two years, a multitude of roster moves, a 13-page resignation letter, and a regime change went by before Philadelphia would see either of these two suit up.

Boy, was it worth the wait. Embiid is going to be the, possibly unanimous, Rookie of the Year, and quickly becoming a superstar before everyone’s eyes (more on him a little later). Saric came to the US with a Euroleague Rookie of the Year and MVP already in his trophy case, but was still an unknown similar to his draft mate Embiid. He is flashing a toughness and skill that will make him a valuable piece to the championship team that Bryan Colangelo is now tasked to put together from the Hinkie puzzle pieces.

The rock that Colangelo will build that team on though is Embiid. He is a human highlight reel on both ends of the floor. He is an elite talent on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor with ridiculous athleticism for someone of his size. The 7’2” center is capable of handling the ball like a guard and has the shooting range of a small forward. Oh, he can still bang in the blocks like a traditional big man too.

Sixers’ defensive rating w/ Embiid = No. 1 in NBA.
Sixers’ defensive rating w/o Embiid = No. 25 in NBA. pic.twitter.com/v6p8HHr5ss

— Ben Golliver (@BenGolliver) January 19, 2017

Embiid is the physical embodiment of “The Process,” which has now become his nickname. Philly is still bringing him along by methodically limiting his minutes. The back issue from college healed, but a fracture in his foot is the real concern. The Sixers want “JoJo” to be the next Hakeem Olajuwan, and not the next Sam Bowie or Greg Oden.

So far so good for Embiid in his long awaited rookie season. Embiid’s 19.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, and 2.4 BPG are comparable to the rookie numbers of the Hall of Famer Olajuwan. “The Dream” has even taken notice of the tour-de-force that Embiid is becoming in the league. The craziest thing about these numbers for the rookie sensation is that he is only averaging 25 minutes per game and doesn’t play in both games during back-to-backs.

The run that Embiid has put together during his last ten games is historic. He is the first player in NBA history to have ten consecutive games of 20+ points while playing less than 30 minutes per game. Embiid is also the first Sixers rookie to have 20+ points in ten consecutive games since Allen Iverson (which was an eleven game streak). “The Process” is even working on a streak of ten games with 20+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 1+ blocks as a rookie. The only players who have longer streaks during their rookie campaigns were Patrick Ewing and Tim Duncan, who both notched twelve games in a row with those numbers.

That is some serious company that Embiid has found himself in during the best stretch of games for Philadelphia since well before “Trust the Process” became a thing. There is hope in Philadelphia for the first time in a long while, and the long-term outlook is even more plentiful. Ben Simmons, the top pick in last year’s draft, hasn’t even suited up yet due to a foot fracture he suffered during the final practice of training camp. Simmons has drawn comparisons to a young Lebron James and was the coveted talent that the Sixers have fawned for over the past three years. That was before they knew what they had in Embiid. So now that empty cupboard of three years ago is looking packed to the gills with talent. It doesn’t stop there either.

Philadelphia has a top-three protected pick from the Lakers that could finally be coming its way this season. In addition, should Embiid lead the Sixers into the playoffs like he believes he can, the team has the right to swap first round picks with Sacramento in the draft (the final move of the Hinkie era). The 2017 draft is being talked about as one of the best in over a decade, and Philadelphia has the opportunity to have two lottery picks.

Trusting the process has certainly paid dividends after years of toiling away in the bottom of the NBA by design. After last night, the trust Sixers fans have put in this franchise during this rebuild turned into a belief that this team is building towards a championship down the road. It is a dream that is starting to take shape into a reality.

Power Rankings for 1/19/17

 (1) Golden State Warriors (36-6)

No surprises here, Golden State continues its regular season dominance of the NBA even with its upgraded roster. Kevin Durant dropped 40 points in last night’s drubbing of Oklahoma City, which was arguably his best game as a Warrior. After blowing out Cleveland on Monday night, the Warriors now can focus on securing the top seed in the West after the All-Star break. They currently hold a three and a half game cushion on San Antonio. Golden State won’t be breaking its wins record this season but things are starting to gel for the offensive juggernaut from the bay area.

(2) San Antonio Spurs (32-9)

The biggest threat to Golden State isn’t the Cleveland Cavaliers; it’s the team that could prevent them from meeting the Cavs for a NBA Finals rubber match. Quiet as usual, the Spurs have the second-best record in the NBA in the first year of the post-Duncan era. Kawhi Leonard is now the leader of this ball club and his improvement in his offensive game has been a pleasant surprise. Everyone already knows about the defensive prowess of “The Claw,” but now with his offensive skill set catching up he could develop into one of the best “closers” in the NBA.

(3) Cleveland Cavaliers (29-11)

Coming in at the third spot in my midseason rankings are the defending NBA champions. They are going through its usual midseason swoon right now (6-4 in the last ten games), but that is to be expected at this point with the Cavs. It takes Cleveland time to find its postseason form, and the recent acquisition of sharpshooter Kyle Korver is another variable to work into the makeup of this team. They are still the best team in the East and find themselves in a good position to defend the NBA championship in June.

(4) Houston Rockets (33-12)

Easily the surprise of the season has been the vast improvement of the Rockets under coach Mike D’Antoni. James Harden is making a strong case to win his first MVP award, which has been due to his improvement as a point guard on both ends. Defensively, he will have some issues here and there, but he is far from the liability he had been in recent years. Outside of Russell Westbrook, there may be no one playing better on the offensive end than Harden. “The Beard” has accounted (scored or assisted) for 50% of Houston’s points this season, which would be an NBA record should that number hold by season’s end.

(5) Toronto Raptors (28-14)

 The combination of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are one of the best backcourt duos in the league. They have Toronto sitting as the second-best team in the East and two games behind Cleveland. Lowry and DeRozan are a large part of how the Raptors are currently the top scoring team in the East, and third in the league (111.0 PPG). Last night’s loss to Philadelphia will hurt its national credibility but it was only the first loss to an Atlantic Division opponent all season. However, there is still a sizable gap between them and Cleveland once playoff time rolls around.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “No Huddle” to break down the conference championship games and give my picks for the weekend. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Wow! What a weekend in the NFL. Between my other responsibilities over at SNJ Today it took me a little bit to catch up on all of the action from the weekend. Luckily I had the extra day to get myself up to date, just in time to write today’s “Weekend Recap.”

Obviously this is going to be a more NFL-centric recap since, well, you know, the playoffs. I will give my thoughts on last night’s clash between Cleveland and Golden State in the NBA. For now though I’ll go game by game and give my two cents on the weekend in the NFL. I’m feeling pretty good after going 4-0 with my game picks and my picks against the spread so I’ll be a little more jovial while writing these.

Atlanta Throttles the Legion of Boom

The Divisional round of the playoffs started with a literal bang. Atlanta silenced some serious doubters on Saturday by bringing Seattle’s rollercoaster season to a screeching halt, 36-20. Matt Ryan threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in another MVP-type performance.

Seattle had the right start, jumping out to a 7-0 lead in a low scoring first quarter. However, everything changed with Seattle up 10-7 in the second quarter. Backed up near its own endzone, Seattle needed to produce a drive. Atlanta’s defense had other ideas, stopping Thomas Rawls for a three-yard loss on first down. On the next play, Russell Wilson tripped over his center’s foot, falling into the endzone, and Ben Garland pounced right on top of him to secure the safety. Atlanta may have still been down one, but you could feel the momentum shift to them.

Later in the half it was Atlanta’s turn to produce a drive backed up on its own goal line. Ryan went to work, orchestrating a nine-play, 99-yard touchdown drive to give the Falcons a nine-point lead heading into halftime. The Falcons showed no fear of the Legion of Boom, throwing the ball on every play of that drive, capped off by a 14-yard catch and run by Tevin Coleman for the touchdown.

The rest of the game became academic after Atlanta’s offense exerted its will on the Seattle defense on the opening drive of the second half ending with a Devonta Freeman rushing touchdown. The Falcons rode the wave of that perfectly executed 14-point swing to victory. It was game-set-match.

Atlanta and its prolific offense advance to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2012. The only question that remained was whether they would be traveling to Dallas, or hosting Green Bay.

New England Survives A Sloppy First Half, But Eventually Rolls Houston

 

Give credit to Houston for making this one mildly entertaining for at least one half. New England uncharacteristically turned the ball over twice in the second quarter deep in its own territory. A Dion Lewis fumble on a kickoff and a Tom Brady interception (gasp!) put Houston in field goal range with two opportunities to take control of the game. The Patriots defense stood tall and limited Houston to only ten points in that quick stretch, keeping them ahead 14-13 with 10 minutes to go in the second quarter.

The Texans would never get closer though as New England added a field goal to end the half before dominating in the second half. The Patriots would intercept Brock Osweiler three times in the second half (all by former Rutgers players… Go Knights) which stifled any comeback attempt by Houston.

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense settled in with its defense playing some outstanding football on the other side. It wasn’t flashy, but New England was able to control the rest of the game and slowly add to its lead making it insurmountable by the beginning of the fourth quarter.

New England advanced to its sixth consecutive AFC Championship game and would await the winner of the Pittsburgh-Kansas City game. Its also the eleventh time New England has made the AFC Championship game in the Brady-Belichick era.

Green Bay Staves Off a Late Dallas Rally for its Eighth Straight Win

 

We now turn our attention to the best game of the weekend, which featured an epic clash between Green Bay and Dallas. The Cowboys came out with its usual mix of Ezekiel Elliot on the ground and intermediate passing, but a sack forced Dallas to settle for a field goal. Green Bay responded with 21 unanswered points in an incredible run by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense where they looked unstoppable.

Dak Prescott would finally get the Dallas offense going again after hooking up with Dez Bryant for a 40-yard touchdown to cut the deficit to eleven. Dallas would add another field goal to make it a one-possession game heading into halftime. The Cowboys withstood the early storm and weren’t going to let Green Bay pull off the road upset that easily.

Unfortunately, the Dallas defense just couldn’t keep Rodgers down for long. Green Bay would open up the second half with another impressive scoring drive ending with Rodgers finding Jared Cook for a three-yard touchdown to make it 28-13.

That score would hold until the fourth quarter when Dallas threw everything it could muster up in a valiant comeback attempt. Following an interception of Rodgers (he actually does make mistakes), Prescott would get the Dallas offense rolling. Ten plays later, he would find old reliable, Jason Witten for a touchdown to make it 28-20 with 11:39 to play.

Momentum was swinging and the Dallas defense fed off the energy of the crowd, picking up a crucial stop on the next possession. Prescott would then lead another long touchdown drive, finding Bryant again for a seven-yard touchdown to make it 28-26. Jason Garrett would roll the dice and keep his offense on the field to attempt the two-point conversion. Dallas came out in the shotgun, spreading out the Green Bay defense. The QB draw was the perfect play call as Prescott waltzed into the endzone to pick up the two-point conversion to tie the game with just over four minutes left in the game.

It was a brand new ball game now. Dallas had clawed its way back into the game after falling into the early 18-point hole. Now they just needed to stop Rodgers again. That was easier said than done though. Green Bay went a bit conservative with some of its play calls, trying to bleed as much of the clock as they could. The Cowboys defense forced the Packers to settle for a 56-yard field goal from the trusty leg of Mason Crosby. Green Bay led 31-28 with just under two minutes remaining.

Dallas got the ball back with a timeout and 1:33 left on the clock, plenty of time for Prescott to engineer a game winning drive. Prescott came out dealing, hitting Terrance Williams for 24-yards then found Jason Witten for eleven yards on the next play. The Cowboys were on the move, but then Garrett had his quarterback spike it with 1:07 on the clock.

Green Bay’s defense collected themselves and readied for battle once again. Cole Beasley caught a short pass and got knocked out of bounds after a seven-yard gain. Once again though the clock was stopped. The Packers got the all-important stop on third down when Nick Perry knocked down a Prescott pass at the line of scrimmage. Dallas was forced to settle for a 51-yard field goal from Dan Bailey and we were tied at 31 with 35 seconds left in the game.

Rodgers made the most of the little time left on the clock and created some magic on the final drive of regulation. He found Ty Montgomery for 17 yards, but then Dallas was able to sack him for a ten-yard loss on the next play. Rodgers tried to go deep on the next play but had to throw it away.

3^rd-and-20 with 18 seconds left in the game and overtime was in sight for the Cowboys. They only rushed three men on the play, which gave Rodgers enough time to turn the scramble drill into what would become the play of the game. He would find Cook once again on the sideline for an incredible 32-yard pass. The review would confirm that Cook just barely kept his toes in-bounds.

Crosby would trot out onto the field for a chance to hit a game-winning 51-yard field goal. The kick was good but Dallas used its final timeout to attempt to ice Crosby. He wouldn’t waste his second attempt, and curled the kick just inside the left upright to give the Packers a thrilling 34-31 victory, punching their ticket to Atlanta to face the Falcons in the NFC Championship game.

Pittsburgh’s Kicking Game Bests Kansas City

 

When your kicker does all of your scoring and the opposing team scores two touchdowns, usually that doesn’t lead to a victory, especially in the playoffs. The Steelers bucked that thinking, as Chris Boswell hit a postseason-record six field goals en route to an 18-16 upset of Kansas City.

Pittsburgh relied heavily on the kicking game for points but it was Le’Veon Bell who literally carried the Steelers all night long. He set a new single-game franchise record for rushing yards with a 170-yard performance on the ground. He was the bright spot in a tough night for the Pittsburgh offense.

The real story in a game like this is two-fold. On one side of the equation you have the play of the Pittsburgh defense, which held Kansas City to 225 total yards and forced two turnovers. The other part of this story is another instance of Andy Reid’s clock management. He inexplicably burned a timeout early in the second half to talk over a play, and then came out in the same formation following the timeout. It led to a 20-yard pass to Jeremy Maclin, but the cost was not having a timeout late in the game.

Once again the Chiefs fall short in the Divisional round, and Pittsburgh moves on to the AFC Championship game to face New England. I think we are all winners in that exchange.

Golden State Crushes Cleveland in Final Regular Season Clash of NBA Titans

Seven months ago, Cleveland robbed Golden State the NBA championship and the moniker of “greatest team of all time.” Then last month the Cavaliers stole a victory away from the Warriors on Christmas Day. Last night, Golden State nabbed a small measure of revenge against their rival from the East in dominating fashion. Golden State’s 126-91 win over Cleveland was a shot across the bow in the season-long standoff between the two top teams in the NBA.

The talk today was whether it actually means anything considering it was only a regular season game. For Cleveland, it’s really not that big of a deal. They are still the overwhelming favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals and one loss in the regular season doesn’t change their long-term trajectory.

For Golden State, this was a big game for them. Beating Cleveland handily is going to be a huge confidence booster for the Warriors given how the last seven months have gone against the Cavaliers. A four-game losing streak against Cleveland is broken. Now the Warriors set its focus on securing the top-seed in the West and attempting to make the NBA Finals for the third consecutive season.

I think the biggest point to takeaway from last night’s game was the incident between Draymond Green and LeBron James. Green shoulder-checked James on a fast break, picking up a flagrant foul on the play. After the play, Green mocked James for “selling” the foul. Obviously Green needs to stay away from the flagrant fouls, his suspension in the NBA Finals last season probably cost Golden State a championship.

I really do question why the Warriors keep making the same mistake of mocking LeBron. If history has shown us anything, you don’t mess with LeBron like that. He doesn’t forget and you know he’ll bring his “apex predator” game when these two inevitably square off down the line. Hopefully, that next time will be in the NBA Finals.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” for my midseason NBA rankings. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Here we go folks, the Divisional round of the playoffs is here. Last week was a pretty big dud, but these matchups should produce some magic on the field. The Divisional round has produced some of the most iconic moments in NFL history (The Immaculate Reception, Rodgers’ Game-Tying Hail Mary, etc.). So hopefully the play on the field this week can reach the bar that has been set as recently as last season (Packers-Cardinals in the Divisional round was easily the best game of last season).

Before I get into my matchup breakdowns and game picks, lets look back at how I did last week. I went 3-1 with the game picks, but went 2-2 against the spread. I completely whiffed on the Oakland-Houston game (thanks Connor Cook), and Green Bay blowing out New York came as a bit of a surprise. I think I made up for it on Monday, nailing the Clemson win over Alabama, but it’s a new week so let’s shoot for a 4-0 week across the board. Let’s jump right into the games this week.

Seattle vs. Atlanta (Sat. 4:35 PM, FOX)

The Divisional round hits the ground running with Seattle traveling to face Atlanta. Everyone is keying on the matchup between the high-flying Falcons offense against Seattle’s Legion of Boom, and rightly so. The Earl Thomas injury has been a huge point of emphasis on this battle, and there are definitely some concerns for Seattle without its eraser in the backend of the defense.

Seattle topped Atlanta all the way back in Week 6 but these teams are completely different since that first game. Seattle is banged up on defense, but the offense has gotten Thomas Rawls back to spark the running game. Atlanta has been running roughshod over opposing defenses and even got a new weapon in the form of receiver Taylor Gabriel.

In order for the Seahawks to have a good shot to pull off a road win, they will need to play a bit of “keep away” with the football. Atlanta averages over 30 points per game this season, which doesn’t bode well for Seattle historically. The Seahawks are 3-4-1 on the road this season, which already is a knock against them. Here’s a big stat to keep an eye on in this game. Over the past five seasons, Seattle is 0-11 when giving up more than 25 points on the road.

Game Pick: Atlanta              ATS Pick: Atlanta (-4.5)

 Houston vs. New England (Sat. 8:15 PM, CBS)

Okay, now this isn’t exactly the best matchup of the weekend. New England throttled Houston in Week 3 with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Houston’s defense has improved since then, much of it due to the long-awaited emergence of Jadeveon Clowney. Will that help Houston? A little bit. Will it change the outcome of this game? Not one bit. There is good reason for the Patriots being the heaviest playoff favorite since 1999.

New England is one of the toughest places to play in the postseason, and with the way Tom Brady has played this season, I just don’t see how Houston wins this game. You put any kind of talent around Brady and he’ll make them look like superstars. Obviously Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett are the top guys in this offense, but don’t sleep on Malcolm Mitchell and Dion Lewis. Mitchell has emerged as a viable redzone threat following the injury to Rob Gronkowski. Lewis is a Swiss Army knife for this offense. He can run between the tackles but is most dangerous when he catches the ball out of the backfield. Combined with Legarrette Blount, Lewis makes this backfield the most lethal skill position for this offense.

Game Pick: New England               ATS Pick: New England (-15.5)

Green Bay vs. Dallas (Sun. 4:40 PM, FOX)

Talk about how much things have changed over the course of a season. Dallas made a huge statement earlier this season by going into Green Bay and knocking off the Packers. That loss began a rough stretch for Green Bay in the middle of the season, losing five out of six games. However, that was before Aaron Rodgers made his “run the table” guarantee. Rodgers is the hottest player, on the hottest team in the NFL right now. Green Bay has reeled off seven wins in a row since that guarantee by its star quarterback.

I do worry about the absence of Jordy Nelson in this game for Green Bay; if you watched any Packers games in 2015 you will understand why. This offense is completely different without its top receiver in the mix. Randall Cobb was awesome last week, but is much better in the slot than playing at the “X” or “Z” receiver. That would mean Davante Adams is going to have to step up in the #1 receiver role in order for Green Bay to keep Cobb in his ideal spot in the offense.

Now we all know what Dallas does well, and it has allowed them to be efficient, effective, and dangerous on offense all season long. I do have some trust issues with a rookie quarterback in Dak Prescott having to beat the hottest quarterback in the game. This game is going to be a shootout given the way that both offenses can move the ball and score points. Ezekiel Elliott has been near impossible to stop in the running game, so the Green Bay defense will have its hands full trying to slow down the NFL’s top running back.

No matter where I look though, this game keeps circling back to the quarterbacks for me. It’s the known commodity versus the unknown in a crucial postseason matchup. This is one of the two games this weekend that are a coin toss in my opinion.

Game Pick: Green Bay        ATS Pick: Green Bay (+5)

Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City (Sun. 8:20 PM, NBC)

Let’s get the big news from today out of the way right now. This game was moved from 1:00 PM to 8:20 PM due to an ice storm in the forecast in Kansas City on Sunday. That could mean field conditions will be a question mark heading into this game. Luckily both teams are equipped to handle rough conditions, and could mean the running games for each side will be leaned on heavily.

Heading into this game, there were two things to keep in mind. You have a matchup of the hot team against a team that has a bit of history on its side. Pittsburgh has quietly won eight games in a row (Green Bay’s winning streak has gotten all of the press), while Kansas City is coming off of a bye week. Why is that important to know for the Chiefs? Andy Reid is 18-3 in his career the week after a bye.

That adds some more intrigue to this game, which I think could be the best of the weekend. Big Ben might be a little dinged up heading into this one, but as history has shown, he is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league and a bum ankle won’t hold him back. More importantly is the health of the rest of the Pittsburgh offense.

Le’Veon Bell has been the missing piece of some of the past playoff teams in Pittsburgh, and he showed exactly why last week. Bell broke Pittsburgh’s single-game playoff rushing record in his first career postseason game. He is Pittsburgh’s x-factor in this game due to his ability to open up the Steeler offense once he gets going on the ground. Bell forces defenses to respect the running game, and keep bodies off of Antonio Brown. Miami found that out the hard way last week.

Kansas City has been a team built to play in one-possession games or with a lead during the Andy Reid era. However, the emergence of rookie Tyreek Hill has added a game-breaking element to this team that has been lacking in recent years. Hill’s ability to score whenever he touches the ball is definitely the x-factor for Kansas City in this game. The Chiefs have found creative ways to get him the ball in space on offense, but Hill’s talent in the return game has easily been his best attribute.

This game is definitely a toss up between the game-breaking players on both sides and the solid defenses each team has put together. I would give the edge to Kansas City’s defense but Pittsburgh can definitely hold its own.

Game Pick: Pittsburgh       ATS Pick: Pittsburgh (+1)

That’s it for me this week, enjoy the weekend everyone. I’ll be back on Monday to recap the postseason games. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Usually the sequel doesn’t live up to the original. That was not the case last night during an epic fourth quarter that decided that national championship between Alabama and Clemson. While it wasn’t as high scoring as the first matchup between these two teams, last night’s game packed all kinds of drama right until the final whistle.

Clemson’s 35-31 victory over Alabama will certainly go down in history as one of the best national title games of all time. That’s a not revisionist’s history, or an exaggeration. This game lived up to the insane hype and then some. The pace of the game definitely could have been faster, but those final few minutes were worth the almost three hour wait to get to the fourth quarter.

Alabama had not allowed more than 21 points all season, but Deshaun Watson and company were able to put up 21 in the final quarter to steal the championship away from the Tide. The Tigers survived a precarious 14-0 hole against the top-ranked team in the country and clawed back into the game by halftime. Alabama normally is able to sit on leads and squeeze the life out of its opponents but once Clemson got on the board in the second quarter, you could sense that the momentum slip away from the Tide.

Watson played potentially the game of his career, withstanding the constant onslaught from the vaunted Alabama defense. Just when you thought that the Tigers were dead, Watson would come up with a play to keep his team alive. Whether it was a pinpoint throw to Mike Williams, Hunter Renfrow, Jordan Leggett, or Deon Cain. It was an absolutely gutsy performance from Watson and the Tigers last night.

I do have to give credit to the Clemson defense, which had been gashed early in the game, and even gave up what could have been a backbreaking touchdown to O.J. Howard. They hunkered down and flipped the script on Alabama, which allowed the offense to wear down the Tide’s defense over the course of the second half.

Now I will admit that once running back Bo Scarbrough went out of the game, with what we found out in post-game was a broken leg, you could sense that Alabama was in serious trouble. Scarbrough could not be stopped by Clemson once he got near the redzone, but when it came time to protect the lead late in that game you could see his ability to slam the ball between the tackles was sorely missed. That being said, Alabama still lead by three with six seconds on the clock and the best defense in the country on the field to protect the lead.

In an ironic twist of fate, the game-winning touchdown was scored on the Tide’s five-star defense by former walk-on Hunter Renfrow. You seriously can’t make these things up. Was there offensive pass interference on the final play? That’s up to you. Personally that was a good no-call in that situation. The referee’s picked the right time to let the player’s decide the game. Plus, there wasn’t a blatant pick; two players got locked up which cut off the defender.

It’s only a matter of time until ESPN turns last night’s game into a “30 for 30.” That is how good last night’s game was in comparison to the first matchup. Congratulations to the Clemson Tigers, you gave us one hell of a game last night. Now let’s all hope we get the rubber match between these programs in 2018.

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” to give my midseason power rankings in the NBA. Be on the lookout for “No Huddle” later this week with my breakdown of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook

Happy Monday everyone! Hopefully you all had a fantastic weekend and most of you were able to dig yourself out of the weekend snowstorms across the East Coast. Unfortunately, the NFL didn’t exactly deliver much drama so today’s “Weekend Recap” will be a bit light. I will wrap up with a quick preview of tonight’s CFP National Championship between Alabama and Clemson.

A Mild, Wild Card Weekend in the NFL

We’ll start with the NFL, where the Wild Card round didn’t exactly scream “wild.” The home teams dominated all four games and just like that the wild card teams in both conferences are gone. Oakland couldn’t do anything on offense with Connor Cook at the helm while Brock Osweiler played mistake-free football and led Houston to a nice 27-14 playoff win. Seattle dropped Detroit in the least exciting game of the weekend, 26-6. Detroit has spent more time blaming the officials on Saturday night than taking accountability for getting outplayed by Seattle.

Sunday gave us the two hottest teams in football continuing their impressive runs. The opening game of the day saw Pittsburgh jump all over Miami early and keep the motor down the rest of the game. Antonio Brown scored two 50+-yard touchdowns to open the game and the Steelers never looked back. Le’Veon Bell got the rock the rest of the game and broke the franchise record for a single-game rushing performance with his 167-yard, two-touchdown day on the ground. Should Big Ben have been in a three-possession game late? Probably not, but that was what Mike Tomlin thought was the best decision. Roethlisberger is one of the toughest QBs in the league, and a mild ankle sprain won’t stop him from playing next week.

The Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers dominated the final game of the weekend, which everyone thought would be an early “game of the year” candidate, sinking the New York Giants. Rodgers threw for a whooping 362 yards and four touchdowns in what quickly became a rout of the G-men. It was a tight first half, but once Green Bay ended the first half with Rodgers connected with Randall Cobb for a touchdown on a 42-yard Hail Mary, it was all over.

New York couldn’t move the ball with any consistency due in large part to a terrible game from Odell Beckham Jr. and the rest of the wide receivers. A lot has been made about that Miami trip, but honestly they just no-showed this game, plain and simple. The one time where Eli Manning actually looked like the good Eli, his receivers weren’t up to the task. That was the Giants offense in a nutshell this year, no consistency or cohesion.

Regardless of all the blowouts this weekend, we are set up for a potentially epic Divisional round next weekend. Green Bay-Dallas, Seattle-Atlanta, and Pittsburgh-Kansas City all have the potential to be great football games. Houston-New England is part of the slate, and I just hope Brady puts on a show.

CFP National Championship Preview

Let’s get to tonight’s national championship game between Alabama and Clemson. The rematch from last season could provide an even better game than the 45-40 thriller we got a year ago. There is history on the line along with the national title tonight. Alabama could win its fifth title in eight years, which has never been done in the modern era. Nick Saban would also tie Paul “Bear” Bryant for the most national championships for a head coach. Clemson can win its first championship since 1981, and could be the first team since Florida State in 1999 to win a national title after losing in the championship game the year before.

The other “storyline” in this game was Steve Sarkisian taking over as offensive coordinator for the outgoing Lane Kiffin. Personally, I think it’s a non-factor in this game. Sarkisian has been around the program all year, and is good friends with Kiffin back from their days coaching under Pete Carroll at USC. He’ll have a good handle on this offense and the scheme they have used all season. Expect a much better gameplan than a week ago despite the coaching change.

In terms of the actual matchup, this one is juicy. Alabama’s top-ranked defense flexed its muscles against Washington, but if there is one thing that has troubled Nick Saban defenses during his tenure in Tuscaloosa it is a mobile quarterback. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson certainly fits that description, and last season he torched the Tide’s defense for almost 500 total yards and four passing touchdowns.

The Tigers didn’t have its best weapon last season in wide receiver Mike Williams, but he is back for the rematch. Williams will likely be one of the first receivers off the board in the NFL draft and he is a matchup nightmare for opposing defensive backs. He adds a threat that was definitely lacking in the first matchup.

I’m expecting to see another classic between these two teams. Alabama is reportedly more fired up tonight than any other game this season. That could be bad news for Clemson because if the Tide gets out to an early lead, it could roll. The Tigers need to take control of this game early if it wants any chance to win tonight. With a matchup this close, the team that takes care of the little things will come away with the national championship. I whiffed big time going against Alabama last week but I think the revenge factor gives Clemson the motivation to stand tall against the top-ranked Tide.

Game Pick: Clemson           ATS Pick: Clemson (+6)

Enjoy the game tonight! I’ll be back tomorrow with a recap of tonight’s game. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.