Boy does a month go by fast. It seems like just yesterday we were all arguing over the selection committee’s choices for the third edition of the College Football Playoff, but now we are here. Less than 24 hours from now, the semi-finals will be upon us. Four teams vying the opportunity at winning a national championship, and each has the chance at writing a unique story.

For Alabama it’s a chance at a fifth national championship in eight years, continuing a string of dominance that we haven’t seen in the modern era of college football. It would also tie Nick Saban with Paul “Bear” Bryant for the most national titles of all time. Ohio State is looking for its second national championship in three years and the establishment of its own dynasty-in-the-making under coach Urban Meyer. Clemson has the chance to avenge last season’s heartbreaking loss in the national championship game and bring home a title of its own. Finally, Washington gets the chance to prove all of the doubters wrong and coach Chris Petersen finally gets his shot against the best coaches in the nation a decade after his Boise State team shocked the world in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

While most of the week has been spent bashing the CFP for diminishing bowl season, I think the storylines we have in front of us are too rich to ignore. So let’s dive in and take a look at both of tomorrow’s games. I’ll also give you my game picks and my picks against the spread.

Peach Bowl (#1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington), 3:00 PM, ESPN

The first national semi-final has the potential to steal the entire weekend if things go the right way. Let’s get the obvious out of the way though. Alabama is the consensus pick in this game by the experts, Vegas likes the Tide by two touchdowns, and this game is happening in Bama’s backyard (Atlanta, GA, site of the SEC Championship game). You also have the added factor of Alabama’s tendency to blow out its opponent on the big stage.

So rather than wax poetic about why the Tide should win this game, let me lay out the way that Washington could pull off one of biggest upsets since that ’07 Fiesta Bowl. Here are the three keys for a Washington upset tomorrow afternoon.

First, it’s all about winning the turnover battle for Washington. The Huskies have one of the most underrated defenses in the country and could force freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts into mistakes. This defense is tough and opportunistic. Washington’s defense averages 2.5 takeaways per game and is +21 in turnover differential. While Alabama’s freshman quarterback has been pretty solid all year, he is not immune to turning the ball over.

So far this season Hurts has thrown nine interceptions, and fumbled the ball ten times (five lost fumbles though). The Tide have gotten a few fortunate bounces, but those haven’t really mattered considering its defense is the best in the country, which leaves them some room for error with the young quarterback. A strong pass rush will help in forcing Hurts into some questionable decisions with the football. Washington averages three sacks per game, but will need to turn up the heat and get somewhere near five or six sacks in this game.

The second key to the game is sophomore quarterback Jake Browning. While he has put up great numbers all year, his worst games have come against the best defenses that the Pac-12 has had to offer (USC, Utah, Colorado). Browning has struggled throwing the deep ball against more talented defenses in the latter half of the season, but there is no doubt this kid can play. With a month of prep, Browning had plenty of time to get coached up.

Alabama loves to blitz, so this offensive line will have to give Browning time to throw, but more importantly he will need to make the Tide pay down the field. Chunk plays in the passing game are vitally important. Another way to help out Browning against this Alabama defense is getting Washington’s stellar running back duo going early. Myles Gaskin (1,339 yards, 5.9 yards per rush, 10 TDs) and Lavon Coleman (836 yards, 7.8 yards per rush, 7 TDs) have been the workhorses of this offense all season.

I think the most intriguing key to this game is coach Chris Petersen. While hardcore college football fans know him from his days at Boise State, he isn’t exactly a household name. He is the master of the trick play, and you’ll never know when he’ll dial up a little trickeration. Urban Meyer is one of the few coaches that can go toe-to-toe with Nick Saban, but Petersen is severely underrated and finally gets his chance to prove he belongs in the upper echelon of college coaches.

Now like I said there is good reason for Alabama being such a heavy favorite, but don’t count the Huskies out. They have the tools to slay the beast from the Southeastern Conference. I think this game has the chance to be a hell of a lot closer than the experts believe it will be. Don’t sleep on this one folks.

Game Pick:Washington      ATS Pick: Washington (+14)

 

Fiesta Bowl (#2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State), 7:00 PM, ESPN

It’s going to be a battle in the desert for the nightcap tomorrow as Clemson and Ohio State square off in the second national semi-final. For this game it really boils down to the coaching matchup and the quarterback matchup. Dabo Swinney and Urban Meyer are the two of the best coaches not named “Nick Saban.” These two should make for one hell of a chess match in what should be an intense, high scoring affair. Both coaches are known for their offensive minds, which definitely add to the hype going into this game.

In addition to the coaching matchup, this is one of the best quarterback matchups we’ve seen since Winston/Mariota two years ago. J.T. Barrett was in the midst of a Heisman campaign two years ago before an injury ended his season (and we all know how that season ended). Now, Barrett has the Buckeyes back in the playoff and it is his turn to finish what he started two years ago. Argue all you want about whether OSU should have been in the playoffs in the first place, but let me tell you right away that this team is no fluke. With Barrett at the helm this is a multi-dimensional offense that can attack you in several different ways. This offense can score against even the best defenses in the country (30 points scored in each game against Wisconsin and Michigan).

On the other side of this matchup is Deshaun Watson. This year’s runner-up for the Heisman trophy has been spectacular all season, bailing his team out of tough spots left and right. Fox Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt called Watson the best “big game” quarterback in college on today’s The Herd with Colin Cowherd. Hard to argue against that when you look at what Watson has done on the biggest stages.

He led Clemson to victories over Louisville, (at) Florida State, and Virginia Tech this season. The Tigers scored 42, 37, and 42 points respectively in those games. Last season, Watson put up 45, 37, and 45 points between the ACC title victory over North Carolina, the national semi-final win against Oklahoma, and the national title loss to Alabama. There is no question that Watson can put up a ton of points when he is on his game.

My only concern with him this season is that he has gotten a little too loose thowing the football this season. Watson has already eclipsed his interception numbers from last season (13 INTs in 15 games in 2015, 15 INTs so far in 13 games this season). That being said he still completes 67 percent of his passes, which is pretty impressive.

Clemson has played with fire all season, failing to put lesser teams away while battling with its more talented opponents. Ohio State is a gritty football team that knows how to fight. This should be a fantastic football game all the way until the bitter end. Hell with these two teams, maybe we can get a little overtime.

Game Pick: Clemson           ATS Pick: Clemson (+2.5)

Enjoy the games tomorrow and have a happy new year everyone! It’s back to business as usual next week with a full slate of content to kick off 2017. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Well folks the final week of the regular season is finally here. The end of four grueling months of football has led to one last chance to clinch a playoff berth. All six spots in the AFC have been decided, now things just depend on seeding. Over in the NFC, we only know a few pieces of that puzzle. The only things that are for sure is that Dallas is locked in as the #1 seed, and Seattle/New York/Atlanta are in. Seeding, the NFC North, and the final wild card spot will all be decided on Sunday. Green Bay, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Washington all have their playoff lives on the line in Week 17.

While most of the intrigue is squarely on the NFC, don’t sleep on the AFC this week, especially with three backup quarterbacks leading playoff teams. With MVP candidate Derek Carr out of the mix in Oakland, the outlook of the AFC is in flux. This should be a very fun week for sure.

Now I’m skipping this week’s power rankings due to all of the upheaval in the status quo with injuries and such. Next week I’ll be doing a full rundown of the 12-playoff teams. Sit back and enjoy the ride though. With all sixteen games going down on Sunday, everything from playoff teams to draft picks will be decided by the end of the Packers-Lions game in primetime.

For today’s “No Huddle” I’ll be looking at the most important games on the schedule and making my picks against the spread. Are you excited? I hope so, because the last week of the season gets a little crazy with the high stakes combined with teams looking ahead to the playoffs. As of right now, Dallas is likely treating this week as a preseason game (with a possible Tony Romo sighting), and Pittsburgh is resting all its key guys.

We’ll start off with the Sunday night game between Green Bay and Detroit. This game has the most to say about the NFC playoff seeding. The winner is the champion of the NFC North, which is currently good for the #4 seed in the NFC. That would mean a date with the Giants in the Wild Card round. Both teams are rooting for the Giants earlier in the day because a win by New York over Washington secures playoff berths for both teams before the game even starts. The other scenario that gets both teams into the playoffs is the game ending in a tie.

As far as the matchup goes, it’s tough to pick against either team right now. Detroit has been feisty all season but is coming off an embarrassing loss last week (reverse momentum theory pops up once again). Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFL right now and is one win away from fulfilling Aaron Rodgers’s guarantee that this team could run the table at 4-6.

The big injury to keep an eye on is the status of Lions cornerback Darius Slay. He was injured in that Monday night game and once he went out with a hamstring injury, Detroit’s defense fell apart. His presence is the key for Detroit to have any chance in this game.

Even with Slay playing at less than 100 percent, that is a huge advantage for the Packers. The Rodgers-Jordy Nelson connection is unstoppable right now, as evidenced by last week’s performance against Minnesota. Defensively for Green Bay, Clay Matthews is playing his best football of the season and that gives the front-seven an added edge to stopping the wily Matthew Stafford.

At best, this game becomes a shootout between two up-tempo offenses. However, I have a feeling Detroit could be in for a long night with the NFC North title and a potential playoff spot on the line. Regardless of the outcome, we’ll know exactly how high the stakes in this game will be before kickoff.

Which brings us to the second-most important game of the week, which is an NFC East battle between the Giants and the Redskins. There is no word on whether or not New York will be full go for this game, but all signs point to the Giants not resting starters on Sunday. A chance to knock out a division rival as a playoff warm-up is too juicy to pass up.

I think that the Giants, with the way this defense has played down the stretch, could be the most dangerous team in the NFC. We’ll have a classic “unstoppable force” meets “immovable object” situation on Sunday. Washington, when healthy, is a tough offense to stop. Even on a bad night, Kirk Cousins can still put up over 300 yards passing. That is a scary thought because that means you are either A) scoring a ton yourself (something the Giants don’t do), or B) bending but not breaking by getting red zone stops (something the Giants can do).

Despite how well this defense plays for the Giants, I do think that Eli Manning needs to have a statement game before we can start getting serious about a Super Bowl run for New York. Six interceptions in four games doesn’t exactly have a Lombardi Trophy ring to it. If New York wants to rely on this defense, Manning at least needs to protect the football.

Either way this should be a great game between two of the oldest rivals in the NFL. I do have my concerns that the Giants could pull the plug on this game if Washington pulls ahead by too much. Protecting the key players before a potential matchup with Green Bay might outweigh knocking out a divisional foe.

Let’s quickly get to my picks against the spread for the week. Christmas wasn’t as merry as I would have hoped for, going 9-7 overall. Hopefully we can end the regular season with a bang and ring in 2017 on a high note. Here are my picks for Week 17 (Winners in Bold).

Last Week: 9-7         2016 Season: 132-107-1

 1:00 PM

Dallas vs. Philadelphia (-5)

Baltimore (-1) vs. Cincinnati

Houston (+3.5) vs. Tennessee

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay (-4)

Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis (-4.5)

New England vs. Miami (+9.5)

Chicago (+6) vs. Minnesota

Buffalo (-3.5) vs. NY Jets

Cleveland (+6.5) vs. Pittsburgh

 

4:25 PM

New Orleans (+7) vs. Atlanta

NY Giants vs. Washington (-7.5)

Arizona (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles

Oakland vs. Denver (-1.5)

Kansas City (-5) vs. San Diego

Seattle (-9.5) vs. San Francisco

 

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay (-3.5) vs. Detroit

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon, I’ll have my preview of tomorrow’s CFP semi-final games up later tonight. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.