Whew. I hope you have all recovered from last weekend, because there is no time for rest coming down the home stretch. Christmas weekend is quickly approaching with a literal cornucopia of games on the schedule. We have the regular Thursday game, a full slate of games on Saturday, two playoff caliber games on Sunday, and the final Monday night game of the year.

It’s the final portion of the home stretch and the playoff picture is slowly coming into form. Seven teams in each conference have a shot in the wild card, which still leaves room for some crazy scenarios to play out. For example, Carolina is holding onto the slimmest of hopes right now following last night’s win over Washington. The Panthers have a one-in-250,000 chance of sneaking into the playoffs, needing Green Bay and Tampa Bay to lose out with Washington tying another game, among a number of specific things that have to take place over these next two weeks.

That is the craziest scenario that could play out right now, but let’s get real here for a minute. The NFC playoff picture caught my attention this morning because we have two instances where a tie isn’t really a tie and will shape the playoffs just as much as these next two games. Seattle and Washington both have a tie on record, but those ties are having the opposite effect on their respective playoff chances.

Seattle is currently holding a half-game lead over Atlanta and Detroit for the #2 seed in the NFC. Not only does that mean a home playoff game for the Seahawks, but that also gives them the all-important first-round bye at the moment. If you recall from last week, I mentioned that 18 of the last 26 Super Bowl champions had a first-round bye. That half-game means quite a bit right now for Seattle.

On the other hand you have Washington, where that tie is severely hurting its playoff chances in the wild card. The Giants have a stranglehold on the #5 seed leaving only the final playoff spot in play for the time being. Green Bay is on fire right now with two winnable games, and Tampa Bay also has two games it could reasonably win. The half-game deficit for Washington has it on the outside looking in right now and potentially is what leaves them out of the playoffs in two weeks.

Those are the two largest instances of those early season games coming back to help or haunt potential playoff teams. You’ll hear a lot about the tie-breaking procedures that the NFL has in place and trust me its pretty extensive. That game a team stole or blew in Week 2 could be more significant that a win in Week 17. It’s a compelling situation we have on our hands right now and should be a lot of fun to watch play out.

I’ll get into the most important games later this week but for now let’s set the table with my latest set of power rankings and the watch list heading into Week 16. Kansas City was the only team in my top-five to lose this week so there is no earth-shattering movement this week.

(1) New England Patriots (12-2) – Last Week: 1

It wasn’t pretty but the Patriots got the job done against the Broncos in Denver last week. Mile High was one of the few places that New England has had issues in recent years so getting the road win definitely lifted a weight off of this team. New England also clinched an NFL-record eighth straight AFC East title. It’s the 13^th division title during the 15-year Brady-Belichick era. That is unparalleled dominance in a league driven by parity. Now the Patriots look to secure home-field advantage in the postseason. They will have to take care of business against the Jets on Saturday to move one game closer to the AFC going through Foxborough.

(2) Dallas Cowboys (12-2) – Last Week: 2

Dallas fans can move off of the ledge now, the Cowboys are just fine. Dak Prescott played his best game of the season on Sunday night essentially silencing any doubts voiced leading up to the game. Prescott was masterful completing 32-of-36 passes, which gave him the second-highest in-game completion percentage ever. Not too shabby if you ask me. Then you have the performance of Ezekiel Elliot and the Dallas rushing attack. Elliot’s 159-yard night running the ball is one of his best of the season but reaffirmed to the rest of the league that when this offense is on its “A” game, they are going to be incredibly difficult to beat in the playoffs. I hope you all aren’t getting sick of Dallas in primetime because for the third week in a row we get Dallas in one of the prime slots. The Cowboys host Detroit on Monday night with an opportunity to finally clinch the NFC East.

(3) Oakland Raiders (11-3) – Last Week: 4

Another gutsy road win for Oakland secured its first playoff berth in 13 years, and vaults them to the third spot in my rankings this week. I do have some issues about the Raiders though. Obviously this defense can make plays, but is vulnerable against a good offense. A potential divisional round matchup against Pittsburgh is a nightmare scenario for the silver and black. As much as I love this offense, the sudden uptick in running plays out of the shotgun and pistol formations is a cause for concern. It makes this offense a little more predictable, and limits the personnel they can have on the field. When Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree aren’t on the field at the same time, you have a pretty good idea of what the play might be. Hopefully this is just Oakland testing something out before the playoffs, and not a trend. This week brings a potential playoff preview between Oakland and Indianapolis.

(4) New York Giants (10-4) – Last Week: 5

A huge win for the Giants moves them up to the fourth spot in this week’s power rankings. Once again, this defense stepped up in a big way against Detroit. Yesterday on The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Cowherd called New York this year’s version of Denver. Behind the strength of this defense, the Giants are definitely the team you don’t want to play in the NFC right now. They are not only keeping the Giants in games, but winning them a fair share of these one-possession games. I still think this offense is severely underperforming for all of the talent they have at the skill positions. No running game, a weak offensive line, and Eli Manning having one of his worst seasons are all things that have me concerned about the Giants in the playoffs. It’s a short week for the G-men with a Thursday matchup against division rival Philadelphia in the city of brotherly love.

(5) Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) – Last Week: 3

Tennessee’s comeback win in Kansas City drops the Chiefs down to #5 in my rankings this week. Now, it didn’t drop them out because I think the Titans are an underrated team that can win the AFC South. This is still a bad loss for the Chiefs though. Blowing a ten-point lead in the second-half with the talent on this defense is a bad sign. Clock management doomed Kansas City on Sunday. That is a costly loss for the Chiefs, dropping them from the AFC West-leading #2 seed, all the way down to the #5 seed. No time for licking wounds though, this week brings a critical Sunday night matchup with Denver, and we all remember how the first game turned out. It will be a playoff atmosphere at Arrowhead on Christmas.

Watch List: Seattle (9-4-1), Pittsburgh (9-5), Green Bay (8-6), Detroit (9-5), Atlanta (9-5), Baltimore (8-6), Tennessee (8-6), Miami (9-5), Tampa Bay (8-6), Houston (8-6)

That’s it for me today. I’ll be back tomorrow with “Heat Check” with a preview of the Christmas quintuple-header in the NBA. Be on the lookout for a championship edition “Reality of Fantasy” on Thursday. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.