Fantasy football is a funny game. Even when you have the best roster or matchups, a stroke of luck is all it takes to flip the odds against you. I’m in a pretty competitive PPR keeper league with a group of my friends from my hometown and two years in a row I’ve come a stones throw away from a championship. Semi-final week is a sore subject for me in this league, and is most of the reason I was “Mr. Third Place” until this season.

Two years ago I entered Monday night losing by 38 points thanks to Jordan Matthews putting up a goose egg in the Sunday night game (he torched Dallas in the first game, don’t you just love fantasy football). I had Matt Forte and Drew Brees left while my opponent still had Mark Ingram to go. New Orleans led 24-8 late in the fourth quarter and I had taken a slim lead in the game. The Saints had the ball and just needed to run out the clock with a two-touchdown lead. Unfortunately for me, the Saints kept the pedal down and marched down the field on Chicago entering the redzone with under two minutes left.

Then, much to my chagrin, Mark Ingram scores on a 15-yard run, making my chance at a comeback victory all but impossible unless Forte returned the favor with a touchdown of his own. It wasn’t meant to be. The Bears picked apart the prevent defense with Alshon Jeffrey, sealing my fate for an eight-point loss and sending me to the third place game.

A pretty gut-wrenching way to lose, or so I thought. Then last season happened.

I was locked into a barnburner with the commissioner of this league. We entered Monday night in a virtual tie, and wouldn’t you know I was counting on New Orleans yet again. The commish had Matthew Stafford and Tim Hightower while I needed a big night out of Brandin Cooks.

The first half couldn’t have gone any worse for me. Stafford threw for three touchdowns, Hightower had been somewhat productive, and Brandin Cooks was virtually invisible with two catches for 33 yards. Cooks had a touchdown called back after a review, putting him down by contact at the one-yard line.

I couldn’t even watch it anymore. Eddie Lacy burned me yet again the day before, and my ace in the hole was nowhere to be found. The commish and I exchanged a few texts throughout the night and at this point in the night we both thought this game was done. I was with a couple of friends at my house and we had thrown a hockey game on TV and fired up the Xbox since the Monday night game was a blowout at the time.

A few games of NHL 16 later and my phone started getting flooded with updates from the game. Cooks came alive in the second half and had scored a touchdown to put me back in the game. Naturally I stopped what I was doing and threw the game back on.

I don’t think I will ever forget this fourth quarter. Cooks was unstoppable in the second half, hitting big play after big play. I had taken a slim lead and New Orleans was driving for another touchdown. Stafford had thrown for his fourth touchdown on the previous possession, which narrowed the gap to less than a point. The Saints were on the one-yard line at the two-minute warning.

Brees looks left and fired toward Cooks. The championship game was right in my sights… incomplete pass. Darius Slay made a diving play on the ball, knocking it just out of the grasp of Cooks. Benjamin Watson scored on the next play, and my lead remained at under a point with 1:55 left in the ball game, and Detroit just needs to run out the clock.

The Lions recover the onside kick just outside of field goal range. It’s going to happen, I was going to steal this game and head for the championship. Joique Bell breaks off a 36-yard run, and Stafford leads the victory formation to ice the game with a field goal since they decided not to run out the clock. Then things got crazy.

Matt Prater shanks a 38-yard field goal, the Saints are still in it, down eight with nine seconds left. My phone is getting flooded with texts from the other guys in the league congratulating me on a win by half of a point. I knew better, I kept telling everyone that this game wasn’t over and to save the congrats for a couple of minutes.

Brees throws incomplete to Watson on first down. One play separates me from the title game. A shiver runs down my spine when I see the personnel on the field. CJ Spiller, the “receiving” back, is on the sideline and Hightower is flanking Brees’s left side.

At this point I’m anxiously standing about a foot away from the TV. I couldn’t move, not now. Max Unger snaps the ball and the left side of the line bails out. No, it couldn’t be. THE SAINTS ARE TRYING TO TIE THE GAME WITH A 72-YARD SLIP SCREEN?! TO HIGHTOWER?!

This is really happening. Hightower’s catch puts the commish up by a half-point. Then he turns up field trying to score. 21 yards later, he just goes down. No attempt at a lateral, he just gives himself up. Game over.

Are you bleeping kidding me?!

I was despondent. Disbelief is a grand understatement to describe my feelings at the moment. My friends that had been texting me congratulatory message not two minute before were now sending me their sympathies. Then the commish chimes in with his two cents.

“Wow,” he messages to me. I still have the text somewhere in my phone.

That was it, I went from winning by half a point, to losing by two points in the final five seconds. Back to the third place game I went. Our championship party was like an Irish wake for me. For the record, I was the highest scoring playoff team during championship in both years.

I pass along my stories of horror as a reminder to you all that literally anything can happen when you are this deep in a quest for a championship. Fantasy football is a fickle game folks.

Now let’s get down to business. There are a few games that I like this week. On paper, New Orleans-Arizona is an inviting matchup but I’m done sticking my neck out for them this season. Target that game if you want at your own risk. Here are the matchups I like for Week 15, let’s get you to a title game!

Top Matchup: Atlanta (vs. San Francisco)

There is a lot to like here. Atlanta is one of the most explosive offenses in the league, even without Julio Jones apparently. Taylor Gabriel is a sneaky play that could vault you to the championship round, he has been a big play waiting to happen every time he has touched the ball in the last month.

Now let’s breakdown some numbers. San Francisco is 14^th against the pass, and last in the league against the running game. The 49ers also allow the most points in the league. Inviting? San Francisco’s defense opens the door, sits you down, and serves up fantasy points on a silver platter. The potential for the Falcons in fantasy this week is a potential gold rush.

2^nd Best Matchup: Oakland vs. San Diego

You have to love a matchup of high-powered offenses this late in the season. Oakland has ten days to prepare for this game after getting handled again by Kansas City. They have a lot to play for in this game, and returning to the West Coast could be just what the doctor ordered. Derek Carr likely burned many of you last week, but keep the faith with him and this offense. A bounce-back performance is in the cards here.

San Diego may have lost Melvin Gordon last week, which leaves the run game lacking, but Philip Rivers can still move the ball. Dontrelle Inman, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Gates, and Hunter Henry still give Rivers plenty of options in the passing game. The Chargers did struggle last week on the road against Carolina, but some home cooking could get them back in the groove, especially against a flimsy Oakland defense.

I do like Oakland more than San Diego for fantasy purposes, but there are some fine options on both teams in this game.

3^rd Best Matchup: Green Bay (vs. Chicago)

 Momentum for the Packers couldn’t be any better right now. This offense is rolling on all cylinders, which is fan-freaking-tastic for fantasy owners. Chicago may be a tougher defense than we give them credit for, but with the way Aaron Rodgers has the offense going, you can’t bet against him. Don’t get scared off by a tough divisional rival here. The Pack is back. Jordy Nelson is a must-start, and Davante Adams has emerged has a reliable target for this offense. Randall Cobb is a wild card. He looks like he has taken a back seat to Adams, but Cobb was great in the first game against the Bears (11 catches, 96 yards, and one touchdown). Fire up your Green Bay Packers on Sunday.

*A sneaky matchup is Washington on Monday night. Just a feeling, but in a must-win game in primetime, Kirk Cousins could come out dealing in this one.

Good luck to all of you this week. I wish you all success in your semi-final matchups. I’m working on “No Huddle” right now, and will be up a little later on today. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.