It’s all about primetime this week in the NFL. Playoff implications are all over the place in Week 14 and it all gets started tonight. Oakland-Kansas City is potentially the best Thursday night game we’ll get all season. Tonight is quite a way to kick off the final push towards the postseason. This AFC West matchup is going to be the tone setter for the rest of what could potentially be one of the best weeks of the season.

Since this is the matchup column for “No Huddle” I figure there is no better place to start. First place in the AFC West is on the line tonight between these division rivals, and that is just the price of admission. Oakland puts its undefeated road record up against Kansas City, which is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

Both teams have found increasingly different and difficult ways to win all year which should make this one that much more compelling. Kansas City dominated the last matchup between these two teams, but don’t expect to see the same outcome here tonight.

MVP candidate Derek Carr has willed the Raiders to multiple wins this season behind one of the best offensive lines in football. The battle in the trenches is the key to this game. Oakland has been stout up front all year, but this Kansas City defensive line is potentially its kryptonite. Tamba Hali, Dee Ford, Dontari Poe, and Justin Houston present quite a problem for Oakland.

To counter the ferocious Kansas City front-seven, I would expect Oakland to pull from its gameplan from the Denver game. The Raiders brought in a sixth lineman to aid in protection. It gave Carr more time to throw, and really paid dividends in the running game.

The Chiefs defense isn’t impenetrable, ranking 28^th in yards allowed, but they are opportunistic. Kansas City bends but usually doesn’t break. This is a team that relies on winning the turnover battle and playing with the lead. Eric Berry and Marcus Peters will have their hands full trying to stop Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. The matchup of the Oakland offense and Kansas City defense is chock-full of intrigue for this game.

Khalil Mack will lead the way for the Oakland defense in trying to stop what coach Jack Del Rio called a “gimmicky offense.” The Chiefs aren’t too flashy on offense but they do have some explosive weapons at their disposal. I don’t see a great way for the Raiders to keep tight end Travis Kelce in check. He will be the bread and butter in the passing game tonight.

Tyreek Hill is another name to watch on this KC offense. Hill is turning into the Swiss Army knife for the Chiefs and is being compared to a rich man’s Percy Harvin. He is seemingly one play away from breaking off a big run, catch, or return for a touchdown.

On the injury front, Jeremy Maclin will be back in the lineup tonight. He has had a rough year dealing with injuries, and I expect that coach Andy Reid would ease him into action tonight.

As far as my pick for the game goes, I think this is a coin-flip game that could come down to the final possession. The extra half-point the Chiefs are favored by almost forces my hand in this one. I’ll take Oakland (+3.5) tonight, in what should be a fantastic game.

We now turn our attention to Sunday night, where the NFC East title will be in play as the Cowboys face the Giants. These NFC East rivals played a sloppy game that saw New York edge Dallas 21-20 in Week 1. The Cowboys have reeled off eleven straight wins since and find themselves on the precipice of clinching the NFC East after securing a playoff bid last week.

It’s all about stopping the Dallas offense for the Giants in this game. Minnesota showed off a gameplan that can work which relies on dominating up front and getting pressure on Dak Prescott. New York spent a lot of money in the offseason bolstering this defensive front and they will have the spotlight on them in this game.

Dallas succeeds in controlling the time of possession battle using its offense to protect a beatable defense. The Giants might not be able to flip the script with the running game, but clearly they want to use a West Coast-passing attack to control the clock.

Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant will rightly garner their share of the headlines in this one. Whichever defense can limit the effect of the opposing star will have a leg up in this game. Both players can change the game in one play, so we’ll see how these defenses plan to stop them.

Five paragraphs in and I’m just getting to Ezekiel Elliott, but that’s not because I don’t think he’s important. Elliott is the constant for Dallas’s offense since his 56-yard performance against New York in Week 1; he has eclipsed 80 yards in every game and has been a lot more effective. That first game was the outlier for Elliott’s season, and the way he is running now will be tough to stop, let alone slow down.

All signs point to Dallas having the edge here, but as we have learned in the NFC East over the years, it is an “any given Sunday” division.

The final primetime game is an interesting matchup between Baltimore and New England on Monday night. This is another game where all signs point to one team having the advantage, but this is a tricky matchup for the favorite in New England.

Baltimore is a tough defense to beat and without Rob Gronkowski predicting what this offense will do is a little easier. The Patriots running game has been great all year, but will face the top rushing defense in the NFL on Monday night. Usually it’s the Patriots that take away the fastball, but this Ravens defense is equipped to make life difficult for Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots offense.

The outcome of this game will rest on the shoulders of Joe Flacco. This Ravens offense has been up and down all season, and most of the “down” performances have been on the road. That being said, Baltimore is one of the few teams in the NFL that have had success in Foxborough (they’ve won twice in the playoffs at Gillette Stadium). Despite the 2-3 record for Baltimore, all of the games between these two in New England have been one possession games since 2010. If the Ravens want to keep the slim lead they have over Pittsburgh, Monday night is a must win game.

This is a playoff-caliber matchup, and hopefully will live up to the billing since we’ve been treated to a ton of bad games on Monday nights.

Playoff implications aren’t exclusive to the primetime games this week either. Seattle-Green Bay, Houston-Indianapolis, Denver-Tennessee, New Orleans-Tampa Bay, Washington-Philadelphia, Arizona-Miami, and Pittsburgh-Buffalo all will help shape the playoff picture.

Now let’s move on to my picks against the spread for this week. To put it bluntly, I am on fire right now following a 10-5 Week 13. I’ve been well above .500 since Week 10 and momentum is on my side. Here are my picks for this week (Winners in Bold).

Last Week: 10-5                   2016 Season: 105-86-1

1:00 PM

Washington (-2) vs. Philadelphia

Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Buffalo

Denver (+1) vs. Tennessee

Arizona vs. Miami (+1.5)

San Diego (+1.5) vs. Carolina

Cincinnati (-5.5) vs. Cleveland

Chicago vs. Detroit (-7.5)

Houston (+6.5) vs. Indianapolis

Minnesota (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville

 

4:05/4:25 PM

NY Jets (+2.5) vs. San Francisco

New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay (-2.5)

Atlanta (-6) vs. Los Angeles

Seattle (-3) vs. Green Bay

 

Sunday Night Football

Dallas vs. NY Giants (+3.5)

 

That’s it for me, enjoy all of the action tonight. I’ll be back tomorrow with the return of “Heat Check” to size up the NBA through the quarter-pole of the regular season. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

The fantasy playoffs are finally here folks. We’ve been plotting and planning since August for this time of the year, and now its finally time to bring our best for a chance at glory. Hopefully most of you have made it this far, if not there is still pride to play for, or in some leagues, not to finish in last and whatever unfortunate punishment comes along with that.

This week’s “Reality of Fantasy” is going to follow the mold of last week’s where we’ll look at the best games to target for the week. There are a few great games for fantasy football this week so I hope you have all planned accordingly. No more bye weeks, (hopefully) no more streaming, just your best lineup against your opponent’s. Let the best team advance to the semi-finals.

Before I get to the games, there is a bit of information that I need to pass along. Prior to the year when I wrote up “Fantasy 101” my first rule was not to completely trust rankings and projections. Just like most years, that turned out to be a good rule of thumb to abide by.

The reason I bring this up is because ESPN’s fantasy sports team released its list of the most common players on teams that made the playoffs. They’ll release a similar list once the fantasy championships are over but this is an interesting list to see just how right or wrong that we were four months ago.

2016 was supposed to be the receiver revolution in fantasy football. Looking at the PPR flex rankings (RB/WR/TE) heading into this week, six of the top ten players in fantasy are currently running backs. Funny how these things work out, of the 21 most common players on playoff rosters, ten of those players are also running backs.

So that receiver revolution was a bit of a reach for this season, clearly the running backs are still the vital position among non-QBs. That doesn’t mean receivers are replaceable by any means, but we’ve seen more running backs getting 20+ touches per game than expected (top-end receivers only see about 10-15 targets by comparison).

It’s just been that kind of year. Just when we think we have our thumb on the pulse of how things will play out, we get a swift, humbling reminder that anything is possible. Let that serve as something to always have in the back of our minds as we head into Week 14.

Which brings us back to the opening week of the fantasy playoffs, which is why we’re all hear. Personally I think that this is going to be a much better week for the NFL than in fantasy. There are still some great matchups out there for us to exploit though.

We’ll start with an NFC South matchup between New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Last week I, like many fantasy experts, thought the Saints were a sure-fire option against Detroit. Well, we got burned by that one, with the Lions playing ball-control offense all game. Personally, with the way Drew Brees spreads the ball around it’s tough to predict which Saint will be “the guy” on a given week. Brandin Cooks getting zero targets two weeks ago is solid proof of that case.

Now, you are probably asking why I’m leading with this game since I’m being so negative about the Saints. It’s because of the Buccaneers in divisional games this season. Ignoring the sloppy 17-10 Monday night game against the Panthers, Tampa Bay tends to get into shootouts against division opponents.

I think that the Jameis Winston-Mike Evans connection is potentially a championship winning combination. I’ve been saying it all season, but unfortunately for me, I narrowly missed the playoff in the one league I have them both on my roster…awesome. Regardless of my personal woes the Saints are a bottom-third defense, which is great news for Tampa Bay’s fantasy prospects.

Despite the lackluster performance last week, I expect that New Orleans will have a bounce back week against a divisional foe, especially with its playoff life on the line. Drew Brees went 60+ games throwing for a touchdown pass before last week, and he should get another such streak started against Tampa Bay. I may like this game more for the Buccaneers, but I think this should be a high-scoring game between these two NFC South rivals.

Another NFC South team ends up on the wrong end of this column, as the Panthers welcome the San Diego Chargers to town. The Chargers get a shot at this banged-up Carolina defense, and this one could get ugly. There are all sorts of issues on and off the field for the defending NFC champs which will leave them ripe for the picking once again this week.

The hot and cold Seattle offense just annihilated this defense, and San Diego should have similar success in this game. The Chargers rely heavily on the passing attack, and they face a defense that ranks 29^th in fantasy for points allowed to opposing wide receivers.

That is great news for Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman, who have both been on fire in recent weeks. Even Travis Benjamin is back from his MCL sprain and could be a factor in this one. If I had to rank the Charger receivers, I would put Williams squarely ahead of Inman and Benjamin.

For Carolina, I’m not too hot on their fantasy prospects against a quietly tough San Diego defense. However, I do think that Greg Olsen is a solid play this week with the Chargers ranking 19^th in fantasy against tight ends. There isn’t much trust with the Panthers but considering they were just embarrassed on national TV there is a chance they come back in this one with something to prove.

Those are the two best matchups, but there are a couple others worth considering. Detroit against Chicago is potentially a sneaky play this week, as the Lions have been effective on offense all season. Plus, the game is in Detroit so there won’t be any weather to worry about in this matchup. I would be cautious though, since the Bears are not the easiest matchup out there. Home field advantage is the why I like this game for the Lions.

Pittsburgh is catching fire at the right time as they head into Buffalo to face the Bills. The Killer B’s (Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell) should always have a place in your lineup, but the emergence of tight end Ladarius Green could be a difference maker for this offense. Green is the most athletic tight end that this offense has ever had and now that he is healthy, he has a fantastic ceiling (23 points last week in PPR). Green is a late season addition that could catapult you into the next round.

Seattle and Green Bay may not have made the “best of” portion of this column, but I think there are potential fireworks between these two teams. I’m hesitant to put much stock into this game due to weather concerns in Green Bay. Last week there was a snowstorm and what do you know, there is more snow in the forecast. A clear weather forecast is what we’ll need to see to be confident about this one.

Keep an eye on Washington going against Philadelphia this week. The Eagles look like they are falling apart defensively and a matchup against a pretty good Redskins offense is the last thing they could want to see. NFC East matchups are a crapshoot, so definitely be careful here. The matchup is pretty good though so definitely keep this one on your radar.

Good luck to you all this week in the fantasy playoffs. I’m working on “No Huddle” for later today so stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for more NFL coverage. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.