The all-important final regular season week of fantasy football just got a lot more interesting. Of course I pushed back “Reality of Fantasy” to today because I wanted to track a few injures and as soon as I sit down to write a few big injuries hit the news wire. One name was already on my radar while another came as a bit of a surprise.
Two of the top tight ends in fantasy football will be on the shelf this week and beyond. Rob Gronkowski, who injured his back on Sunday, will undergo surgery on Friday to repair a herniated disk and will be out indefinitely. The Patriots wasted no time placing him on the injured reserve/designated to return list.
This move essentially ends Gronk’s fantasy season and leaves his playoff status in jeopardy. Typically this is an eight-week recovery but a back injury is nothing to mess around with so expect New England to be cautious with Gronk while he rehabs. Martellus Bennett obviously will vault up the tight end rankings with this news. Also keep an eye on receiver Malcolm Mitchell, who could have sneaky value in the as a red zone target going forward.
The surprise news of the day came out of Washington regarding Jordan Reed. If you recall, he briefly left the game on Thanksgiving with a shoulder injury but returned and scored a touchdown late in the contest. Well, it turns out the injury is worse than expected. Adam Schefter tweeted out that Reed is “unlikely to play” on Sunday against Arizona. This is a huge loss for Washington, but this means that Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon will see an increase in workload in Reed’s absence.
Now that we got the bad news out of the way, let’s go over a couple of positive injury updates from around the league. Colts QB Andrew Luck looks to be on track to play on Sunday after being a full participant in practice on Wednesday. He still needs to clear the concussion protocol but clearly a good sign to see him going with no restrictions in practice.
Bills receiver Sammy Watkins returned to practice today after sitting out Wednesday’s practice due to foot soreness. His surgically repaired foot has been nagging him all year, but seeing him getting back after what looks like a rest day is a positive sign ahead of a great matchup against the Oakland secondary.
We’ll have much more information as week get closer to Sunday for other injuries like Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker, Texans running back Lamar Miller, and Raiders receiver Michael Crabtree. Make sure to stay current with updates from the teams.
Let’s get down to business now that we’ve covered the big injuries of the week. Week 13 is finally here folks. Final playoffs spots are on the line and you don’t want to be left on the outside looking in. Instead of doing my usual best and worst matchups of the week, I’m going to identify the three best games to target that could vault you into the playoffs. Between this edition of “Reality of Fantasy” and today’s “No Huddle” that will be up later, I will have you covered for all of Week 13 so don’t think I’m going light this week.
We’ll start with what could be the highest scoring game in the early block of games. Detroit travels to New Orleans and based on what we’ve seen all year this could be one hell of a shootout. This New Orleans defense could be just what the doctor ordered for a struggling Lions offense. The Saints allowed the lowly Rams offense to put up 28 points last week, and the Lions have a lot more firepower than Los Angeles. Pro Football Focus ranks both Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees in the top-five at quarterback this week which should bode well for everyone involved.
I love the potential for the Saints here this week at home. They are fantasy darlings in the Superdome, especially against a defense that doesn’t scare me in this matchup. Michael Thomas has been the breakout talent of this offense this season racking up seven touchdowns this season. Thomas currently ranks as the 12th best receiver in PPR heading into this week.
My one concern in this game is Saints receiver Brandin Cooks. He ranked as the 11th best receiver in PPR going into last week before putting up the dreaded goose egg against the Rams in a game where the Saints scored 49 points. Cooks didn’t even have a target in that game and burned all of his fantasy owners in the process. Now reports are coming out that Cooks is growing frustrated with his role in the offense. He is a top-flight fantasy receiver and this is about the worst news you can hear at this time of the year, aside from an injury of course.
Aside from my concerns about Cooks, this game looks like fantasy gold in a must-win week. Not to be outdone, there are two great games in the late afternoon block of games that need your attention.
The first is a matchup of two great offenses in San Diego between the Chargers and Buccaneers. I flat out love both of these offenses in fantasy, and believe these are two teams that could win you a championship this season. Tampa Bay is heating up heading into the fantasy playoffs while San Diego has been a solid fantasy offense all season. These two teams squaring off this week is like an early Christmas present just in time to clinch a playoff berth.
I don’t think there is a hotter connection in football than the one between Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. Winston has put up 20+ points in four out of his last six games and could be in line for another such performance. Evans is unquestionably a fantasy stud, he’s on pace to lead the NFL in targets while sitting in the top-three in receptions (73), yards (1,020), and touchdowns (10).
It’s no secret that the Chargers strength is its offense, ranking fourth in the NFL in touchdowns per game. Philip Rivers is having another great season leading this offense. The only issue is figuring out which receiver is going to be the lead guy week-to-week. Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman both have put up great games in recent weeks but last week is the first time where they both eclipsed the 20-point mark. This was probably due to the fact that tight end Antonio Gates didn’t have a catch against the Texans.
I wouldn’t be worried about the Buccaneers performance on defense last week against Seattle. Tampa Bay has been a bottom-third defense most of the season so last week was the exception, not the rule. They are allowing a healthy 24 points per game on the season. I say healthy because allowing five points in a game will certainly drop any average by a large margin.
San Diego’s defense has struggled most of the season, and with the way Tampa Bay is playing I expect that trend to continue. In the last three games, the Chargers have allowed an average of 26 points per game and 360 yards per game. Obviously there is a lot to love about this game overall.
The sneaky-good fantasy game this week is a matchup between the Bills and Raiders. Now you might say that Buffalo has a good defense and an okay offense, why is this a sneakily good fantasy game? Well, it’s the Oakland effect. The Raiders have a knack for turning games into shootouts. Only twice this season has an opposing team failed to score 20-plus points against Oakland.
So while we can all agree that the Raiders are a great offense for fantasy, this is one of those games where their defense will elevate the opponents. Remember, the Bills had a good amount of success against the Seahawks a few weeks ago and that was without Sammy Watkins, who returned last week. The Raiders can give up points in bunches which is a great sign for the Bills.
Don’t get too cute with this game though, starting someone like Marquise Goodwin or Seth Roberts would be insane. I’m merely presenting a case for big games from big names in this game. The highly sought after 30-point fantasy game could be found from guys like Amari Cooper, LeSean McCoy, Derek Carr, and even Tyrod Taylor (mostly with his rushing ability).
Good luck to you all this week, I wish you all fantasy success and hopefully a berth in your league’s playoffs. Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon later today for “No Huddle” where I’ll be looking at the best games of Week 13 and making my picks for the week. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.