We are four days away from the College Football Playoff bracket being finalized and there is a few interesting scenarios that could play out between then. The CFP committee released its penultimate rankings last night ahead of the conference championship this weekend. While they rank the top-25 teams in the country, we really only need to focus on the top-ten to figure out what the final four will look like this Sunday. Here are the rankings as of last night:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. Penn State
8. Colorado
9. Oklahoma
10. Oklahoma State

Pretty intriguing with how some of these teams stack up against one another. There are a few key takeaways to keep in mind as we approach the conference title games this weekend. The first is the positioning of the Big 12 teams, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Sitting at #9 and #10 respectively, the committee is already telling us that the Big 12 champion won’t even be in the conversation on Sunday. Regardless of who wins between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, there is no chance that they jump all the way up into the top four.

No surprises there since we’ve known since mid-October that this conference didn’t have much of a chance to have a representative this year. The real surprise is the rankings of two teams from the Big Ten, #5 Michigan and #7 Penn State.

We’ll start with Michigan, since this is the ranking that probably turned quite a few heads last night. The Wolverines may not be out of the mix like most thought they would be after losing to rival Ohio State over the weekend. Despite losing two of its last three games, one of those being to an unranked team, Michigan would be the primary beneficiary of upsets in conference title games. Couple the ranking with the clarification from committee chair Kirby Hocutt that there is a “very slim” margin between Washington and Michigan and you can see that maybe a lack of a conference title might not mean all too much in the eyes of the committee.

That bodes well for #2 Ohio State, who will not be playing in the Big Ten championship game, for being a lock to secure one of the playoff spots. Usually where there is good news, there is bad news and these rankings can’t be a good sign for #6 Wisconsin and #7 Penn State. They will be playing for the Big Ten championship and unless there is a dominant performance by one of the teams in that game, it’s unlikely that either gets in.

I’m cautious to use the word impossible though because I believe that Penn State has the best chance to sneak into the playoff. The Nittany Lions are one of the hottest teams in the nation right now and they have the head-to-head victory over Ohio State to pad its resume. Penn State will need some help in the final weekend though.

Currently Ohio State is the only marquee win over a top-ten opponent on the resume for Penn State. A win over Wisconsin would give them two top-ten wins, but they would also need Temple to upset #19 Navy in the AAC title game and hope the Owls end up in the final rankings. That would be a third win over a top-25 opponent, which would be the same number of wins Ohio State has over the top-25 (although the Buckeyes have better wins, namely #5 Michigan). It’s not the most improbable scenario ever considering what we have already seen so far this year. Penn State would have to win convincingly to make any of this possible.

You could make the argument that Penn State or Wisconsin winning the conference championship might help Michigan more than the champion since the Wolverine beat both teams this season. Unfortunately, we don’t know how conference championships would factor into playoff considerations since Hocutt said, “there haven’t been any conference champions yet.”

#3 Clemson and #4 Washington are the teams that will control whether we get chalk or chaos on Sunday. Each will be in their respective conference title game, and will be facing a capable opponent. Clemson is currently a double-digit favorite to beat #23 Virginia Tech while Washington is a touchdown favorite over #8 Colorado. Any upset in either of those games will open the door for all of the scenarios I mentioned before and possibly one that we haven’t even considered yet.

Just about the only thing we know for sure is #1 Alabama is in no matter what happens against #15 Florida in the SEC title game. The Tide played the second-toughest schedule and is the top team in the Strength of Record and Game Control metrics that the committee uses to determine these rankings. Even using just the eye test, Alabama looks like the best team in the country.

The presumptive madness kicks off on Friday night with the Pac-12 championship game between Washington and Colorado. It should be an incredible weekend of football and speculation, as we get closer to noon on Sunday when the final CFP rankings are announced and the top-four is finalized.

That’s it for me today, there are some key injuries that I am tracking so I’ll be doing “Reality of Fantasy” tomorrow along with “No Huddle” covering Week 13 from all angles. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.