Day: November 16, 2016

Reality of Fantasy: Considerations For the Stretch Run and the Best/Worst Matchups of Week 11

Posted on by jmooney609

Here we go fantasy fans. The stretch run of the regular season begins this week. There are three or four games left to get into the playoffs so lets make these games count. How we navigate these next few weeks is going to be crucial.

Do you play matchups or trust your studs? Do you make a last minute trade to help put you over the top? Are you banking on this week’s waiver pickup turns into this year’s Tim Hightower? Is it time to unleash that stashed player that you’ve sat on all season? These are all questions that you need to be asking yourself if you are fighting for a playoff spot.

This doesn’t mean you don’t have any work to do if you are sitting pretty atop your league’s standings. In fantasy football, your work is never done. There is always a little move here or there that can be made to improve your chances of bringing home that coveted championship.

I mentioned at the beginning of the season to keep the playoff weeks in mind when putting your team together. Teams like Tampa Bay and San Diego needed to stay on your radar because of great playoff schedules (don’t think you are simply going to get Melvin Gordon or Mike Evans at this point though). Below are two charts from ESPN Fantasy from last Friday covering strength of schedule broken down by position. Use this to guide you through the rest of the year, also keep in mind that this will likely be updated in the coming weeks.

 

 

Let’s shift our focus to the goal at hand, and that is winning Week 11. This week we have Atlanta, Denver, San Diego, and NY Jets all on a bye so plan your replacements accordingly. Don’t be like me in my big money PPR league and be forced to replace Devonta Freeman with Paul Perkins or Kenneth Dixon (would’ve been without CJ Anderson too before his injury… poor planning on my part).

There are some very intriguing games from a fantasy perspective that we should look to attempt to exploit. Obviously we can’t account for team’s to lay an egg in a plus matchup (Randall Cobb and Mike Evans owners are still trying to figure out what went wrong last week… oh hey that’s me again… fantasy football right?).

Let’s not the fear of striking out keep us from playing the game though. Here are the best and worst matchups for a crucial Week 11.

(Obvious) Best Matchup: New England (vs. San Francisco)

 The Patriots are coming off of a loss AND playing a 1-8 team? Say no more. This sounds a lot like the Brady return game against Cleveland and that is music to our ears in fantasy. Reports from New England indicate that Gronk did not puncture his long as some had speculated so there is a bullet dodged there. The Pats are a fantasy puzzle so don’t go too crazy with this matchup (cough, Chris Hogan, cough). James White and Dion Lewis owners need to be cautious of the one-yard touchdown machine named Legarrette Blount. Matchups don’t get much better than this though so definitely don’t shy away.

Best Fantasy Game: Tennessee @ Indianapolis

Never did I think that I would be typing that heading in a fantasy column in 2016. The Titans offense has been incredible these past few weeks and has become much more than a one-trick pony with DeMarco Murray. Marcus Mariota is in the middle of a breakout campaign so ride the hot hand if you were fortunate enough to get him on your roster. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in a franchise record six consecutive games. The Colts defense doesn’t offer much of a reason to think that won’t be extended to seven games.

While the Titans can play a little defense, that won’t be enough to stop this high-powered Colts offense. Andrew Luck and company should be able to put up points in bunches especially at home. Considering the last game was a 34-26 win by the Colts, we should feel good about the fantasy prospects of this game inside the dome at Lucas Oil Stadium.

**Close Second: New Orleans @ Carolina (Thurs.) – Shootout Alert!

 Toughest Matchup: Miami (vs. Los Angeles)

Miami has looked good the past few weeks with improved offensive line play and Jay Ajayi taking absolute control of the backfield. It’s just my gut feeling here, but I do not like this matchup at all for the Dolphins. The Rams defensive line can get after it and cause all kinds of problems in the running game. Since coming off of their bye, the Rams have allowed only 19 points in two games. They shut down the Panthers running game holding them to 59 rushing yards two weeks ago. Miami’s defense also could be an issue for the offensive production if they can get a defensive touchdown off of this porous Rams offense with #1 pick Jared Goff taking over at QB. This is more of a caution than a call to abandon ship. Be conservative with how you play this matchup.

Other Good Matchup: Pittsburgh (vs. Cleveland)

The Steelers came this close to knocking off the Cowboys last week, but to no avail. Luckily they will be able to get that bad taste out of their mouth by knocking around the lowly Browns. Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell are all in line for monster days against Cleveland. No fancy stats here, just a great offense playing against a terrible football team.

Other Tough Matchup: Seattle (vs. Philadelphia)

Seattle is at home in this game which should be a bit of an equalizer in this game. That being said, the Eagles strength lines up directly with Seattle’s weakness. Philadelphia’s defensive line is a problem for a Seattle offensive line that has been inconsistent at best this year. Now the solution there is Russell Wilson’s mobility, which was their saving grace two years ago when these teams last played each other. I don’t love having to rely on Wilson doing his best Houdini impression but in a game like this you might have to. Once again be cautious here, no need to totally abandon the matchup as Seattle’s offense has played well the last two weeks.

Other Good Matchups: Detroit (vs. Jacksonville), Oakland (vs. Houston), Washington (vs. Green Bay), Green Bay (vs. Washington), NY Giants (vs. Chicago)

 Other Tough Matchups: Tampa Bay (vs. Kansas City), Philadelphia (vs. Seattle), Los Angeles (vs. Miami), Arizona (vs. Minnesota)

 That’s it for me today, I’ll be back tomorrow with “No Huddle” and “Heat Check.” Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.