The 2016-17 NBA season is finally here. After a wild playoffs and even crazier free agency period which saw Kevin Durant jump to Golden State, the stage is set for another great year of basketball. So with that I present to you the first edition of “Heat Check” which will serve as the place for NBA talk on Shooting the Moon.

We are about a week into the season but if you follow the NBA you know that the season doesn’t really start until after the All-Star Break. Until then everyone will just be jockeying for position and trying to stay in the playoff hunt until the stretch run…unless of course they are tanking (god bless you if your team is doing that).

Since there isn’t a ton to talk about just yet about what is actually happening in the league, I’ll get into a few bold predictions for this season. Almost universally, the community of national NBA analysts is predicting a rubber match between Golden State and Cleveland in the NBA Finals and Russell Westbrook being the favorite for the MVP. That’s a little boring to me, which is why I think some of these bold predictions will be fun to at least talk about as the season goes on.

Golden State-Cleveland III won’t happen this season

I’m wasting no time with this one here. I think Golden State is an amazing team on paper, but part of me believes they don’t make it out of the Western Conference for a third consecutive year. The Warriors had to sacrifice all of its depth in order to sign Kevin Durant, and come playoff time that is going to show.

Think about this, a #1 seeded Warriors could have to face Oklahoma City, Portland, and San Antonio in its playoff run. That is a potentially brutal road to the NBA Finals. Golden State may have four of the top 20 players in the league, but that alone won’t be able to get them through a stretch like that.

Golden State has also played the most games out of any team in the last two seasons and three of its core players also played in the Olympics this summer as well. By the time May and June come around, the Warriors might run out of gas.

Kawhi Leonard wins the MVP

 Russell Westbrook is going to put up video game numbers this season, but the Thunder might barely make the playoffs as a seven or eight seed. Westbrook would have to average a triple-double in that situation to win the MVP. There is a good chance OKC misses the playoffs though. The last time the Thunder didn’t have Durant, Westbrook put up insane stats put they missed the playoffs.

Kawhi Leonard, to me, looks poised to have the best season of his career with an offensive game that looks drastically improved from a year ago. He is drawing comparisons to Kobe Bryant from players like Demarcus Cousins. Leonard is already one of the best defenders in the NBA, and if he continues to dominate on the offensive end I just don’t see any way you don’t give him the MVP at the end of the year.

In addition to what Leonard could potentially do individually, he could easily be on the team with the NBA’s best record. People forget that Golden State had to go for the wins record last season partly because San Antonio wouldn’t go away, winning 67 games.

The two-time defending Defensive Player of the Year will be adding his first MVP at the end of the year.

The Scoring Title Will Be Won By a Player on a Non-Playoff Team

Historically, the player that wins the scoring title comes from a playoff team. This season presents a situation where the scoring title will come from a player from a non-playoff team.

The odds-on favorite to win the scoring title is Russell Westbrook, and I mentioned before that I’m not very high on OKC this season. I just don’t like the make-up of this team, despite the fact that Westbrook could average 30+ PPG in his sleep. The Thunder is an injury away from being in big trouble this season.

Another potential contender for the scoring title is Westbrook’s former teammate James Harden. Last season Harden was narrowly edged out for the scoring title by Steph Curry, but this season there is a big change in Houston that will literally put the ball in his court.

Houston brought in Mike D’Antoni to run the Rockets this season, and in addition to implementing his fast-paced system, he moved Harden to point guard. That will put the give Harden complete control of this offense, not that he already didn’t get the ball enough though.

The Rockets might score 115 points per game, but they will be giving up about that number as well. Mike D’Antoni teams have never been known to play any kind of defense, and this roster does not have anyone that you would consider a “stopper” either. Houston easily misses the playoffs in my opinion, even with Harden putting up career numbers.

This may be an overreaction, but if healthy, I think Anthony Davis makes a strong push for the scoring title on a bad New Orleans team as well.

“Heat Check” will be back next week, I’ll try to keep things fun until the season heats up but there will be the first power rankings for sure in the next edition. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.