We have officially reached the quarter-pole of the NFL season, and I don’t think anyone could have seen the opening four weeks go this way. Carolina and Arizona are both 1-3 after dominating the NFC last season. The Sam Bradford trade helped produce two of three undefeated teams in the league. New England didn’t miss a beat without Brady, going 3-1 during his suspension. Strangely enough, the Rams are also 3-1.

I could go on and on with the things that no one saw coming but I’m not one for dwelling on those things. More importantly, this is what will shape what we know about these teams going forward. That’s the beauty of the NFL, you really can’t predict what is going to happen. You can read every scrap of information about each and every team prior to the season, but none of it matters until they step onto the field for meaningful games. Ultimately, none of us actually know what is going to happen, we just go off of the things that we see happen on the field.

While things have gotten off to an odd start this season, this hasn’t exactly been a season from bizzarro world. So where am I going with all of this? Well I’m trying to stress the importance of uncertainty in the NFL. Sometimes the sure thing loses, while the team with no chance wins. Just when you seem to have a grip on a handful of teams, you get thrown for a loop.

That is a big thing for us to remember going forward. With bye weeks now playing a factor, just try to remember that nothing is ever certain. Some teams will figure things out on a bye, while other teams will hit the reset button during the bye, and a few teams will get out of rhythm because of the bye, costing them the rest of the season. Kansas City used its bye week to regroup and reeled off eleven wins in a row before running into the Patriots in the playoffs last season. Miami fired Joe Philbin after the London game, and turned the reigns over to Dan Campbell last year. Atlanta looked great early and fell apart shortly after its bye week going 2-5 down the stretch.

Now before I get too far down the proverbial rabbit hole here, lets get to why we’re here today. Today’s “No Huddle” will be looking at my power rankings going into Week 5 and highlight a few teams that are dangerously close to a lost season.

This week’s power rankings didn’t see a ton of movement, but the watch list is getting crowded with teams on the cusp of the upper echelon. Here are my top five teams going into this week.

(1) Denver Broncos (4-0) – Last Week: 2

The Broncos are looking the part as the defending Super Bowl champions, plain and simple. When you have a defense with an elite pass rush and an opportunistic secondary, you are going to be in a lot of football games. Denver also may have something special in rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch, which isn’t an indictment of Trevor Siemian, who looked capable in his own right. After Siemian left the game with a shoulder injury, Lynch stepped right in and started slinging the ball all over the field. There’s no word on whether Lynch will be the starter going forward, but he looks like a guy that can get the passing game going and alleviate the pressure teams have put on the running game in the last few weeks. This week’s matchup will feature the #1 offense of Atlanta against Denver’s vaunted defense. Whoever is in at QB for Denver will have to produce to keep the Broncos unbeaten.

 

(2) Minnesota Vikings (4-0) – Last Week: 3

Minnesota followed up a statement win against Carolina in Week 3 with a comfortable win on Monday Night Football against the Giants. I absolutely love what I’ve seen from the Vikings, and with each passing week they give you something else to admire. Week in and week out this defense will be the calling card of the Vikings. However, this offense gets better with each game as Sam Bradford gets more comfortable in this scheme. Bradford is playing effectively right now, and Minnesota was even able to get its running game going. This week brings an interesting matchup against Houston, which has talent on both sides of the ball.

 

(3) New England Patriots (3-1) – Last Week: 1

Okay let’s get this one out of the way. New England getting shut out for the first time at home since 1993 was an aberration. Tom Brady returns from suspension this week and the last team I would want to be is Cleveland this week. New England is going to be just fine, and it won’t be long before they return to the top spot in these rankings. The loss drops them for now, but Brady will return everything to normal for the Patriots. I’m giddy with excitement to see the show that the Brady Bunch is going to put on starting this week.

 

(4) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) – Last Week: 4

Well it looks like the Steelers got the bad taste of the Philadelphia lost out of its mouth. Pittsburgh dominated on Sunday night and had the Chiefs beat by about halfway through the second quarter. Le’Veon Bell’s return to the lineup was a welcome sign for Pittsburgh and man, did he look great. Bell is one of the best backs in the NFL, we just sometimes forget that because he either is hurt or suspended this time of year. The Steelers get the struggling Jets this week, and that is another game that could get out of hand quickly with the way these teams are playing.

 

(5) Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) – Last Week: 5

It’s easy to stay in the power rankings for another week when you have a bye week. I do wonder if the bye week will take the Eagles early season mojo away though. This team was rolling on all cylinders the last time we saw them. We’ll certainly find out on Sunday when the Eagles travel to face Lions. I think this defense in Philadelphia is for real, but I’m still cautiously optimistic with Carson Wentz. We’ll see what the kid is really made of once he faces adversity.

Teams to Watch: Atlanta (3-1), Oakland (3-1), Green Bay (2-1), Baltimore (3-1), Seattle (3-1), Dallas (3-1), Los Angeles (3-1)

So now with the best in the league out of the way, there are a couple of teams that have caught my eye in a bad way. Last week I gave you four teams who you could immediately take out of playoff contention, and three of them won…go figure. There aren’t any more teams to add to that list just yet but there are a few hanging on by a thread.

Arizona (1-3) is the first team on that list right now and I just can’t seem to put my finger on what’s going wrong. Obviously Carson Palmer being hurt doesn’t help, but this offense just looks stagnant. A loss to San Francisco on Thursday night will be the final nail in the coffin for the Cardinals this season. This is the time for that defense to come alive and show why it was one of the best in the league last season. There are too many playmakers for this team to look this bad.

Carolina (1-3) makes the list this week, not because Cam Newton is hurt, but because this defense may have been exposed. Julio Jones going for 300 receiving yards will put a massive spotlight on the weakness of this defense. The loss of Josh Norman has proved to be more impactful than anyone thought. I think this team will be fine, but its gut check time for the Panthers this week against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football.

NY Jets (1-3) will likely lead the next group of “eliminated” teams next week if they are unable to pull off an upset against Pittsburgh. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown nine interceptions in the last two games, which will never lead to wins in this league. Fitz still has the support of the locker room, mostly because Geno Smith is Geno Smith. Brandon Marshall may get his wish too; this ship is going down with Fitzpatrick at the helm.

I fully expect to add more teams to the “eliminated” group next week, but for now those are some teams who are teetering on the edge of leading that group next week.

 

That’s it for me today, stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for more NFL coverage this week. Keep an eye out for a quick recap of the MLB postseason tomorrow in addition to more football talk.