Week 1 is upon us. In two days the NFL regular season kicks off with a Super Bowl rematch between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos. It could not have come any sooner, as many fan bases are anxiously waiting for the season to get started. Quite a bit has happened since I started writing these divisional previews, and I’ll cover those events later this week when I make my final predictions for the season.

In the meantime, there are still four divisions to get to before Thursday night, so lets not waste anytime. Today I’ll be looking at the AFC North, which saw an interesting offseason for the two teams at the top of the division, a complete overhaul by Cleveland, and a ho-hum offseason from Baltimore. So let’s dive right in with those two teams fighting at the top of the division.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Things are looking pretty good in the Steel City this season. That is despite the one-year suspension to receiver Martavis Bryant and a three-game suspension to running back LeVeon Bell. Ben Roethlisberger leads the way once again, and while there are pundits that have doubts about him this season, I am not in that boat. Big Ben still has the best receiver in the league at his disposal in Antonio Brown (sorry Falcons and Giants fans). Brown is squarely in his prime and is virtually impossible to cover defensively. Pittsburgh gets former All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey back from injury to anchor the offensive line. Despite the suspension to Bell, the Steelers will be just fine at running back with DeAngelo Williams, who looked rejuvenated last season in Bell’s absence. I expect this offense to be one of the best in the league, especially once the Killers B’s (Big Ben, Brown, and Bell) are all on the field at the same time in Week 4.

Defensively the Steelers are building around a young core of linebackers who have showed incredible promise. Ryan Shazier looks like an absolute stud and could be the star of this defense. Unfortunately, rookie standout Bud Dupree was recently placed on the injured reserve list and will undergo surgery to repair a torn abdominal muscle. Dupree will be out until at least midseason, eligible to return after Week 8. That is a major blow to this defense, which badly needs to a presence in the pass rush. While this is far from the fabled Steel Curtain defense, or even the Troy Polamalu-led defenses from a few years ago, this unit is far from an issue.

I like Pittsburgh to win this division and depending on the health of the key players, could make a deep run in the playoffs. This offense is lethal when running on all cylinders and can mask some of the issues they could have on defense.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are a bit of an enigma coming into this season. After an ugly exit in the playoffs last season, Cincinnati underwent a potentially costly offseason. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson left to be the head coach in Cleveland. Receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu left in free agency, while their breakout star Tyler Eifert suffered an injury in the Pro Bowl and may not be ready until Week 4. They still have an elite receiver in AJ Green, and Andy Dalton is coming off of a career season (albeit an injury shortened one). Jeremy Hill will have to step up in the running game after a disappointing season in 2015, although he showed flashes of his potential in 2014. Cincinnati is hoping that rookie Tyler Boyd can be the answer to the losses of Jones and Sanu. Ultimately, this means there are a lot of question marks at the start of the season and we’ll have a much better idea about this offense come midseason. One note to make here, is that this offense is one more injury away from going into a complete tailspin as AJ Green is already a little banged up but capable of playing.

Cincinnati features a tough unit on defense, although it’s a unit that is capable of hurting itself with penalties and questionable play (see last season’s playoff game). That being said this was a unit that ranked second in points allowed and eleventh in yards allowed, and return most of the defense intact.

This is a playoff caliber team when healthy, but like I mentioned with the offense, its hinging on getting healthy and staying that way. Once they get to the playoffs though, we know the story all too well as they have been a perennial one-and-done under coach Marvin Lewis. At best this is a wild card team, at worst…well lets just say it won’t be pretty.

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore comes into this season with almost no love from the national pundits. Last season was a disaster as a litany of injuries derailed the season before Halloween. Quarterback Joe Flacco suffered an ACL tear, running back Justin Forsett broke his forearm, receiver Steve Smith tore his Achilles tendon, and that’s just the big names that went down. 2016 returns all three of the big names on this offense, despite Baltimore cutting and then resigning Forsett (which was just strange, in my opinion). Smith reneged on his retirement promise to give it one more go this year. To be perfectly honest though, there is not a ton to get excited about here. The running back situation could be a mess, as well as the receiving core.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens made a splash in free agency by bringing in safety Eric Weddle to fortify the back end of the defense. Weddle has a nose for the football and always gets himself in the right spot to force a turnover. He is a much needed addition to a defense that ranked 30^th in takeaways last season. This defense actually ranked eighth in yards allowed, but 24^th in points allowed. In addition to increasing turnover numbers, the Ravens will have to be better on third down as this defense allowed an average of nine plays per drive.

Something about this team just screams 8-8 at best. They play division rivals incredibly tough, but I just don’t think there is enough here to warrant a playoff run in Baltimore this season.

Cleveland Browns

Moneyball has made its way to the NFL. Cleveland has undergone a complete roster overhaul under the supervision of Paul DePodesta, who formerly worked under Billy Beane for the Oakland A’s and was the assistant GM for the New York Mets. With a new analytics driven player personnel department mindset, the winds of change returned to Cleveland. In addition to the “Moneyball” experiment, the Browns hired Hue Jackson as head coach after a very successful tenure as an assistant and offensive coordinator in Cincinnati. Jackson will be tasked at trying to mend the career of Robert Griffin III, who will be the starting quarterback this season after a disastrous end to his time in Washington. Griffin has a lot to prove, which is the overall theme for this offense. Beleaguered receiver Josh Gordon will return from his suspension in Week 5 in what looks to be his final shot in the NFL. Rookie Corey Coleman was the first receiver selected in the draft and Cleveland is pinning some serious hope on the young man out of Baylor University. The Browns will also need to hope that tight end Gary Barnidge was not a one-year wonder, after a breakout season in 2015.

The Browns have been clearing house in recent weeks on defense, getting rid of multiple players from one of the worst defenses in the league last season. This leaves this unit in a state of flux. Unfortunately this means the Browns will be putting a lot of stock in rookies and undrafted free agents to make up for the overhaul.

Ultimately, this is a team that is a few years out from being relevant in the league. The future looks better once they get to use the draft picks Cleveland is stockpiling put it’ll be a long season for the Browns.

 

I’ll be back Thursday with the final previews for the AFC South, NFC South, and NFC West. Send me your thoughts in the comments section or on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Welcome back everyone! I hope it was a great holiday weekend for all. I almost wish the weekend wouldn’t end, especially with the amazing games we witnessed with college football’s opening week. If you missed it, I feel sorry because this certainly lived up to the billing of the best opening weekend ever (you know aside from the Alabama game…which I totally misjudged). There was even a shocking deal in the NFL to add to all of the craziness, but more on that later.

Chaos in the top-25 reigned supreme as a record seven ranked teams lost on the season’s opening weekend. Of those seven, three were being considered serious contenders for the national title. Oklahoma’s title hopes ran into a buzzsaw as they lost to Houston in the Cougars backyard (but allegedly was a “neutral” site game). This only goes to show that you can never hop on the Sooners annual hype train, as it always goes off the rails and never reaches its destination. Houston put foot to behind, making its own statement to the college football world. The Cougars have a long road to go not being in a Power Five conference, but this is a potentially great win to have on the resume.

Speaking of statements, how about Texas on Sunday night? Notre Dame-Texas set the bar for “Game of the Year” pretty high with their double-overtime thriller. The Longhorns ran the ball at will against the Irish defense in crunch time and proved to be the difference maker Sunday night. Texas coach Charlie Strong can fan the flames of the proverbial hot seat for now, but that is a monumental win for his team as he continues to rebuild that Longhorn program (another win against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game might even remove him from the hot seat).

The Irish have only themselves to blame for that loss. Brian Kelly may regret his decision to play both of his quarterbacks during the game, as DeShone Kizer was clearly the man for the job. If Kizer had been in the entire time, that may have been a completely different game. Also the defense might want to run some extra tackling drills in practice until further notice. The game-winning play for Texas should have been stopped three yards in the backfield, among other miscues by the Irish defense.

The other top-10 team to go down last weekend was the LSU Tigers, who have a familiar problem; poor play at the quarterback position. For a team as talented as the Tigers, you would think it would have a quarterback that could at least manage the game. You can’t deny the effort of Wisconsin in that game (chalk that up as another missed call for me from last week’s viewer guide). Also, you’ve probably seen the video of the ending of this game, but LSU certainly should be embarrassed by the cheap shot thrown by Josh Boutte. It was a classless end to a tightly contested game.

LSU can at least thank Ole Miss for taking some of the heat off them. The Rebels absolutely crumbled last night against Florida State. Talk about the tale of two halves, it looked like the teams switched uniforms at halftime. Ole Miss was in total control of that game in the first half, moving the ball at will against the Seminoles. FSU coach Jimbo Fisher must have given one hell of a halftime speech because his team came out looking like a totally different team in the second half. The defense forced four turnovers led by defensive end DeMarcus Walker, who finished the game with 4.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Walker and the ‘Noles defense sparked the comeback which included a star-making debut for redshirt-freshman quarterback Deondre Francois. Francois finished the game with 419 yards passing and added another 59 yards on the ground.

Ole Miss and LSU highlighted a rough weekend for the vaunted SEC, which saw seven teams take a loss last weekend. But hey, at least it has Alabama to lead the pack.

On to the big news from the NFL this past weekend, which saw Sam Bradford traded from Philadelphia to Minnesota. The Eagles made out like bandits in this deal by getting a 2017 first round pick and a conditional fourth rounder in 2018 (which can become as high as a second rounder if the Vikings make a deep playoff run). Desperation for the Vikings gave Philadelphia quite a bit of leverage here, and Eagles GM Howie Roseman capitalized. It marks the beginning of the Carson Wentz era in Philadelphia, and a potentially season-saving move for the Vikings.

Before I wrap things up I want to send my congratulations to Green Bay quarterback Joe Callahan for making the 53-man roster. Callahan was one of the top performers from the preseason and certainly earned his place on that team. I want to wish him the best of luck as he begins what is hopefully a long career in the league, he deserves it. Everyone at home is rooting for you Joe.

 

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for part five of my NFL preview later today as I look at the AFC North. It’s going to be a busy week with the NFL season starting on Thursday. As always, follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Labor Day weekend is finally here! Unfortunately for some that means the end of summer. For sports fans, it means college football is upon us. The NFL takes a back seat for one week as the collegiate game gets its time in the spotlight. What a weekend it is going to be. Saturday may be one of the best slates of games for an opening weekend we have ever seen. Monumental matchups get this season started on the right foot, so lets jump right in and highlight what you need to be watching this weekend.

Friday (9/2)

Kansas State vs. #9 Stanford (9:00 PM, Fox Sports 1)

Christian McCaffery is worth the price of admission for this one folks. Last year’s Heisman runner-up dazzled last season en route to setting a new NCAA record for all-purpose yards. That record was previously held by Barry Sanders, just so you get an idea of how impressive that is. Last we saw McCaffery he sliced and diced his way through the Iowa defense, winning the Rose Bowl MVP. He tallied 279 all-purpose yards and a touchdown as the Cardinal trounced the Hawkeyes 45-16. Tonight’s game will be a nice preview of a potentially electric season by the Stanford star running back.

Saturday (9/3)

Wall-to-wall college football all day, everyone has their own teams and allegiances. Obviously I’m not going to tell you to not watch your team in favor of one of the games I think will steal the weekend. Here are some of the games to keep an eye on though.

#3 Oklahoma vs. #15 Houston (12:00 PM, ABC)

Wasting no time on Saturday, we get our first top-25 matchup of the season. The Sooners are the favorite in the Big 12 with national championship aspirations while the Cougars looked to shock the college football landscape. Oklahoma is a double-digit favorite but don’t rule anything out in a road game this early in the season.

#16 UCLA vs. Texas A&M (3:30 PM, CBS)

This matchup features a potential future #1 NFL draft pick in UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen. He leads the Bruins into extremely hostile territory against the Aggies. UCLA is a dark horse national title contender, and we’ll get a good first look at what this team is made of in Rosen’s sophomore year. This will be the best of the 3:30 PM games (yes, I know Leonard Fournette and LSU play Wisconsin, but that’ll be a blowout) so keep an eye on this scoreboard if you’re watching your hometown team.

#1 Alabama vs. #20 USC (8:00 PM, ABC)

The defending national champions open up the season in Arlington, Texas once again this season. Alabama faces a much better opponent this year in the Trojans. USC is one of the most talented teams in the country and could give the Crimson Tide a bit of a run. However, this is Alabama we are talking about. Nick Saban has said he will play both of his quarterbacks in this game, which is a risky strategy but Saban pulled it off last season against Wisconsin. I’m not going to ring the alarm for an upset alert here although I actually don’t think Alabama covers the 11.5 point spread (for you gamblers out there). Sunday (9/4)

#10 Notre Dame vs. Texas (7:30 PM, ABC)

This game has a little bit of everything. Notre Dame is a national title contender with two dark horse Heisman candidates at quarterback. Both are playing in this game in one of the toughest places to play in the country. On the other side is Texas, with head coach Charlie Strong squarely on the hot seat and in serious need of showing improvement. The Longhorns were one of the most inexperienced teams last season and return a ton of starters while the Fighting Irish are replacing key players on offense. While I wasn’t willing to put Alabama on upset alert, I will put Notre Dame on notice here. This is a potential upset waiting to happen.

Monday (9/5)

#11 Ole Miss vs. #4 Florida St. (8:00 PM, ABC)

A long weekend demands another day for the Weekend Viewer Guide. Luckily we are getting served up one hell of a Labor Day clash. Florida State is a favorite to win the national title, and Ole Miss is far from a cupcake. This virtual top-10 matchup (okay top-11 put who’s counting) will be the perfect way to end one of the best opening weekends in recent memory.

 

Everyone have a fun and safe holiday weekend! I’ll working on Monday to get ahead of the NFL season preview in an effort to finish before the season kicks off on Thursday. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon Page on Facebook.

 

 

Well it’s been another busy week with the end of the summer and football fast approaching. I’m playing a little bit of catch up today so this will be the first of a couple posts today. The other day I looked at the best fantasy offenses. Today I will be looking at the “limited” offenses that you should avoid if you don’t get the main source of production. I’ll finish up with a couple more breakout players you should keep your eye on late in your draft.

When I talk about a “limited” fantasy offense, I’m talking about a one-dimensional offense, or an offense where there are only one or two go-to options. That doesn’t mean these are bad offenses but these are where headaches will come from for a fantasy owner for not having the right guys. So here is the top three offenses that will have limited options this season.

(1) Minnesota Vikings

This is an archaic scheme that is run in Minnesota and a throwback to the old-school style of offense in the NFL. The only player worth any investment for fantasy purposes is Adrian Peterson. That is a bit obvious considering every season Peterson has played more than one game, he has been a top-five option in fantasy. Now there was a glimmer of hope that Stefon Diggs and Laquon Treadwell would be relevant this season. That was right up until quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a horrific non-contact injury that left him with a torn ACL and a dislocated knee.

Truthfully, this makes me a little more wary of Peterson as a top selection in fantasy drafts this season. He should still be a first rounder, but I might be a more inclined to go with Todd Gurley, David Johnson, or even Ezekiel Elliot because I believe all three may have a higher season than Peterson with Bridgewater done for the season.

(2) New England Patriots

You can call me crazy, but unless I’m getting Rob Gronkowski or Tom Brady, I don’t want to get too invested in the Patriots. That’s especially true if you don’t play PPR. This offense is loaded to the teeth with weapons for Brady to throw to outside of Gronk. The issue is this is a gameplan-oriented offense that picks on the weakness of the opposing defenses. In the past that meant having to worry about which running back would get the majority of the work. Now, I believe that touchdowns will come at a premium outside of Gronk (even his numbers could see a small regression in terms of receptions and yards). Even PPR legend Julian Edelman won’t be the slam-dunk fantasy option that he has been in the past. If you want to deal with a weekly headache, this will be the offense that causes it. You may get lucky a few times, but more often than not Bill Belicheck will have different plans in mind than helping you get a win in your fantasy matchup.

(3) Denver Broncos

If you watched the Broncos or owned one of them in fantasy last season, then you already know. Long gone are the days where this offense was setting league records left and right. Peyton Manning is enjoying retirement, and in steps former seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian at quarterback. Unfortunately for Siemian, he could be one reason why this is a “limited” fantasy offense. He is completely unproven and is being thrown in to lead the defending Super Bowl champions. There are some weapons here, which leads me to believe that receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders might be the only players worth owning. And don’t even get me started with C.J. Anderson; his inconsistency spoke volumes about his fantasy value last season.

* Avoiding the secondary, or even tertiary, players in these offense will save you a lot of trouble this fantasy season. It also furthers the point I tried to make earlier this week that just because a team is successful doesn’t mean that makes it a great fantasy offense.

Okay, so let’s quickly jump into some late-round sleepers to target late in your fantasy drafts. I’m going to try to keep this short and sweet so bear with me if I don’t give you the full book on these guys.

 

Derrick Henry, RB Tennessee Titans

The former Heisman trophy winner has looked great in the preseason, and with that his ADP is rising (I had to get him in the 10^th round in my PPR keeper draft). He is clearly the backup right now behind former rushing champion DeMarco Murray, but you can’t deny what Henry has shown so far. The Titans improved the offensive line, and want to feature both of these running backs. Henry is the guy that will provide the best rate of return between both running backs.

Tyler Boyd, WR Cincinnati Bengals

AJ Green is still the top dog in this offense, but with the loss of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency, someone needs replace that production. Boyd looks poised to be that guy. The rookie from Pittsburgh should start in the slot and will see plenty of targets from Andy Dalton, especially with Tyler Eifert out at least the first month of the season. Unless you are in a cutthroat league, you may be able to rob Boyd late in your draft and laugh it up once he breaks out. This is a PPR stud in the making.

Jesse James, TE Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Ben’s long-time tight end Heath Miller retired in the offseason leaving a void at the position. Pittsburgh thought it had the solution when Ladarius Green signed a four-year deal in free agency. Now it looks like Green may never even see the field due to complications from concussions. Jesse James is plan-B at tight end, which may not be the worst thing in the world. James measures in at 6’7” and could be an amazing red zone target for the Steelers. Big Ben loved throwing to Miller in tough situations, and James could carve out a similar role with the opportunity the injuries to Green may afford him.

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for a late edition of the Weekend Viewer Guide. Send me your thoughts in the comments section or through social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook..