The Jets and Bills are in the spotlight for Thursday Night Football to kick of Week 2 of the NFL. Both teams are coming off of losses, and each need a victory in the worst of ways. Buffalo needs a win to keep coach Rex Ryan off the hot seat after an embarrassing loss to Baltimore last week. As badly as the Bills need a win, the Jets are already in must-win territory. After tonight, the Jets play Kansas City, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Arizona.

As I’ve written about all week, I do not like what I saw out of the Bills on offense. The Jets are a completely different animal than the Ravens defensively, and get Sheldon Richardson back from a one-game suspension. All signs point to another dismal night offensively from Buffalo. Lesean McCoy will struggle to find room to run against this ferocious front-seven. Tyrod Taylor needs to pull all the tricks out of his bag and look like Houdini in the pocket, as he will face all kinds of pressure from the aggressive blitzes that Jets coach Todd Bowles likes to use. Sammy Watkins has a one-way ticket to Revis Island to add to his injury troubles.

For the Jets to win tonight, Brandon Marshall will have to step his game up. Marshall disappointed last week, and not for lack of involvement as he was targeted often in the passing game. New York getting the Fitzpatrick-Marshall combination going will open things up for Eric Decker and Matt Forte. Buffalo is banged up defensively but looked decent against a one-trick pony in Baltimore.

I’m shocked that the line for this game currently favors Buffalo by a point. I get this is a division game, but the Jets are the better team. Take the Jets in this game no matter if this is a -1, +1, or even line. As far as the game goes, this could be a sloppy game as most Thursday night games tend to be. The desperation of the Jets should like a spark beneath this team to get a win before the nightmare stretch begins.

Check back to Shooting the Moon as I preview Week 2 of the NFL, give my picks, and look at the top college games for “No Huddle.” Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Just in time for Week 2 its today’s edition of “Reality of Fantasy.” I’m looking at the best and worst matchups in fantasy for this week. There is one game I’m circling as the go-to game to exploit for fantasy while there a few that you should stay far away from (that includes tonight).

Matchups to Exploit

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints

Last season this game was fantasy gold for both teams, producing one of the highest scoring games of 2015. I don’t expect this to reach that same level but this is still the juiciest matchup of Week 2. Drew Brees, Eli Manning and their array of receivers are in line to have monster days on Sunday. The Saints defensive woes are well documented, while the Giants are still trying to get things together on this new-look defense. Yes, New York only gave up 20 points to Dallas last week, but I look at a poor gameplan from the Cowboys as the prime reason for that. New Orleans is a different animal entirely. Load up on this game and enjoy as your fantasy score shoots through the roof.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers

Another great fantasy matchup here, as both teams like to throw the ball a ton. San Diego looked great against a tough Kansas City defense until Keenan Allen tore his ACL and the air was sucked out of the entire team. The Chargers are better equipped to withstand Allen’s absence. Expect Travis Benjamin and Danny Woodhead to carry the load in the passing game. Both will be on track to have good fantasy games this week, especially in PPR. Jacksonville has a very potent offense and I believe they will have ample opportunity to attack downfield against San Diego’s defense. That is great news for Blake Bortles and company, who are poised to have big numbers this week. Play your studs here, no reason to jump ship with this matchup.

 

Oakland Raiders vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Raiders are looking great against Atlanta this week in their home opener. Riding the momentum from a huge comeback against New Orleans, I expect this offense to feast on a weak Falcons defense. Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree are all in line for a great week. On the flip side, Atlanta has a chance to continue some of the success in the passing game that they saw last week. I love Mohamed Sanu in this game as an under-the-radar flex play with WR2 upside. Last week, Oakland looked incapable of covering the second and third receivers against New Orleans (Willie Snead went for over 170 yards last week). I would stay away from Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, as there is clearly a committee forming in the Atlanta backfield, plus a tough matchup in the running game.

 

Worst Matchups

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

If you own any Bills in this game, send them to the bench now. Buffalo looked lost on offense last week against Baltimore. Week 2 brings an even tougher matchup with the Jets defense. Sammy Watkins is banged up and will find himself on Revis Island tonight (don’t expect Watkins to have the same success AJ Green had against Revis). Lesean McCoy faces one of the best run defenses in the NFL and will likely post similar numbers compared to last week.

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

Andrew Luck may have been the top fantasy quarterback last week, but don’t expect nearly the same production against the Denver defense. The Broncos are the best all-around defense in the NFL and will make things extremely difficult for the Colts. If you have other options, certainly send your Colts to the bench this week there will be better days ahead from them.

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

Russell Wilson plans on playing hurt, which already dampens my expectations for them, but last weeks performance doesn’t inspire much confidence either. Seattle looked totally out of sync last week. On the flip side, so did Los Angeles. However, when it comes to division rivalries you throw records and stats out the window. These teams play tight, ugly games against each other and I expect that recent history to hold true. I already don’t like the Rams from a fantasy perspective, but this week they’re taking the Seahawks with them. Avoid this game if you can.

 

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for today’s edition of No Huddle. I’ll do a quick preview of tonight’s game between the Bills and Jets as well as give my gambling pick for the game. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

The first week of fantasy is officially behind us, hopefully most of you started out with a nice victory to kick-start the season. If you didn’t, it’s not the end of the world. It’s a long season and the real work starts now as the all-important waiver wire comes into play. Like I’ve said in earlier posts, the draft is only the first part of the fantasy puzzle. In my experience, as long as you hover around .500 you will have a chance to get into the playoffs. No need to panic just yet fantasy owners, it was only one week. Now that we are officially underway with the season Shooting the Moon will have plenty of fantasy coverage under the “Reality of Fantasy” banner (it’ll make these posts easier to find as you’re scrolling through the site).

Before we can look forward to Week 2, let’s look back at the fantasy studs and duds of Week 1. A lot of big names disappointed in Week 1, but that is to be expected, it happens every season. It will help us shape our view of who to target and avoid as the season moves forward.

Studs: Drew Brees, Willie Snead, and Brandin Cooks

 

I have to put these three together because the production was off the charts this week and a very welcome sign of things to come from this trio. Brees (423 yards, 4 TDs) was able to pick apart the Oakland defense finding Snead and Cooks often for huge plays down the field. Cooks flashed that big play potential on a 98-yard touchdown in the third quarter that buoyed his fantasy output for the day (6 catches/9 targets, 143 yards, 2 TDs). Snead was the real surprise for me, showing he was more than just a one-hit wonder in 2015. It seemed like he was open all day long and the stats were flat-out incredible (9 catches/9 targets, 172 yards, and 1 TD). Snead is looking like an absolute steal if you got him in the middle of your draft.

Duds: Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins, and Lesean McCoy

 

Just an ugly day for the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, there’s really no way around that. Granted, Baltimore looked great on defense. This doesn’t change the lack of any offensive output for this trio and the Bills offense as a whole. Taylor was a sleeper pick at quarterback by most fantasy experts and struggled all game long to a porous stat line by the Bills quarterback (111 yards passing, 11 yards rushing, 0 TDs). This offensive line didn’t help matters either. McCoy (16 attempts for 58 yards, 0 TDs; 4 catches/4 targets, 12 yards, 0 TDs) couldn’t find any room to run. The real concern here is Watkins (4 catches/6 targets, 43 yards, 0 TDs), who had a quiet day on Sunday. Yesterday’s news is the cause of the concern. The New York Daily News reported that the Bills may shut down Watkins for “several weeks” due to the lingering pain from his offseason foot surgery. Although the Bills denied the report, saying it’s a pain management situation for Watkins, this is not what you want to hear from a guy who has WR1 talent.

Stud: Andrew Luck

He’s back, folks. 2014’s #1 fantasy QB, Andrew Luck looked like the guy that garnered “all-time great” hype prior to entering the league four years ago. Luck shredded the Lions secondary on his way to the top quarterback performance in fantasy this week (385 passing yards, 21 rushing yards, 4 TDs). With the way his defense played, Luck will be throwing the ball a lot this season. Expect this to be just the beginning of a huge comeback season for Luck.

Duds: Ezekiel Elliot and Dez Bryant

 

All that preseason hype looked to be a little premature for Elliot (20 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD; 1 catch/2 targets, 1 yard, 0 TDs.). The Dallas offense as a whole was ineffective and looked a little gun-shy in Dak Prescott’s first career start. I still think that Elliot will be a great fantasy player, but this is far from what you expect from a potential top-five running back. Dez Bryant may have been the biggest victim of the conservative gameplan that Dallas deployed. Bryant was virtually non-existent on Sunday and the stat line is haunting for his owners (1 catch/5 targets, 8 yards, 0 TDs). I’m more concerned about Bryant than Elliot due to the usage of Jason Witten and Cole Beasley, who dominated the targets in the Dallas passing game.

Stud: Spencer Ware

 

I really hope some of you listened to my advice and scooped him up if he was available. Ware ran wild and played a massive role in Kansas City’s comeback win over San Diego. He was a stud for PPR leagues last week (11 attempts, 70 yards, 1 TD; 7 catches/8 targets, 129 yards, 0 TD). He’s clearly the main running back in the offense in the short-term until Jamaal Charles returns in a few weeks.

Duds: Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson

Ugly games from the top two running backs in fantasy last season. Neither could get anything going in the running game. The Titans sold out to stop Peterson holding him to just 31 yards rushing on 19 carries. Long-term Peterson will be fine once Sam Bradford takes over at quarterback and loosens up the box. Freeman was lost in the mix in the Atlanta offense. His stat line was pretty pedestrian (11 carries, 20 yards, 0 TDs; 4 catches/4 targets, 20 yards, 0 TDs). The real concern for Freeman owners is the resurgence of Tevin Coleman in the offense. The carries and targets were split between the two backs, but Coleman was definitely more effective.

 

Turning our attention to Week 2, and some waiver wire targets you should have on your radar when making roster moves tonight. Truthfully this is a weaker group and I would be hesitant to use a lower waiver priority (bottom-half of your league) because we’ll have a much better idea of the breakout players in the coming weeks. Here are the top-3 guys you should be looking at this week.

(1) Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans

In deeper leagues he likely went in your draft, but for smaller leagues he may still be available (according to ESPN he is only owned in about 60% of leagues). Fuller shined in his rookie debut on Sunday and looks like a legitimate contributor in the new-look Houston offense. His stat line is very promising, especially for PPR (7 catches/11 targets, 107 yards, 1 TD), and will be one of the names to keep an eye on when we talk about breakout players.

(2) Tajae Sharpe, WR, Tennessee Titans

In a run-heavy offense, Sharpe had modest production in his rookie debut. His value is more suited for PPR (7 catches/11 targets, 76 yards, 0 TDs) but clearly he is the top target at receiver for the Titans. I like him as a flex-play once the bye weeks hit and Sharpe will be a great asset to bolster your bench for now.

(3) Eli Rogers, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

While his touchdown came on a freak play, Rogers saw plenty of looks from Ben Roethlisberger last night. Much like Sharpe, his value is in PPR leagues but this offense loves to throw and he had 6 catches on 7 targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. He is another asset to grab for depth purposes for later in the season.

 

Check back tomorrow as I look at some of the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 2. Join the conversation in the comments section or social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Week 1 of the NFL is in the books, and I almost wish we could have left it off on a better note than the 49ers shutting out the Rams (wow did I whiff on that game by the way). While the nightcap of the Monday Night Football double-header was the worst game of the week, we were still treated to one hell of a slate of games. Today’s edition of “No Huddle” I’m going to recap the best and worst of the opening week in the NFL.

Before I get to the best and worst things I saw on the field this weekend, lets take a look at my top five teams after Week 1.

(1) New England Patriots (1-0)

This should come as no surprise after the upset win for New England in Arizona on Sunday night. Completely short-handed, the Patriots were able to grind out a win against one of the top teams in the NFL. Credit Bill Belichick and his staff for having his team ready to go despite the losses they sustained outside of already not having Tom Brady. The Patriots now get three straight home games and have a legitimate shot at going 4-0 to start the year. That’s when the fun really starts in New England. Already kicking myself for not picking the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

(2) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

 

Big Ben and company dominated the allegedly “upstart” Redskins last night. Pittsburgh looked as good as advertised on offense, and really makes me wonder how good this offense will be when Le’Veon Bell returns from his suspension in Week 4. The defense played well and made big plays when necessary against Washington. Linebacker Ryan Shazier was all over the field for the Steelers and I think his health will dictate how good this defense can be as the season progresses.

(3) Green Bay Packers (1-0)

Okay don’t let the four-point victory over Jacksonville fool you. This Packers team is legit, and that game told me more about the Jaguars improvements than Green Bay not being an elite team in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is still the best QB in the game and his weapons all made contributions on Sunday. The scary thought is what this offense will look like once everything is in rhythm.

(4) Denver Broncos (1-0)

The defending champs proved that this defense is capable of carrying workload once again this season. Once the Broncos get a lead they morph into a scary football team. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware pin their ears back and unleash havoc on opposing quarterbacks. This offense is going to look pretty conservative with Trevor Siemian at the helm, but if running back CJ Anderson can continue to produce like he did in the opener they will be just fine. It may not be long before Denver jumps up in these standings.

 (5) Carolina Panthers (0-1)

 

Despite the loss in the opener, this is still a formidable team. Cam Newton will have to do a better job protecting himself though. Thursday night was concerning if I’m a Panthers fan considering the amount of shots he took. Kelvin Benjamin looked great and Greg Olsen continued to be the most reliable target in clutch situations. Defensively this is still the second-best unit in the league behind Denver. Carolina will be just fine in the NFC.

Teams to Watch: Houston, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Kansas City, Seattle

Now let’s take a look at the best and worst performances from Week 1.

Best: Oakland’s Comeback and Jack Del Rio’s Ballsy Call

What a game we saw in New Orleans between the Saints and Raiders. I loved the poise showed by Oakland during this comeback victory on the road. Derek Carr showed no signs of regressing after a Pro Bowl season last year. More importantly, I loved the faith that head coach Jack Del Rio showed in his offense. He didn’t even hesitate making the call to go for the win in the final moments of the fourth quarter. That is a tone-setting win for the Raiders as they look to make the next step and make a run at the playoffs.

Worst: Seattle’s Lackluster Offensive Performance

I’m still scratching my head trying to figure out what happened with the Seahawks against Miami on Sunday. In what should have been a comfortable win at home against the Dolphins, the Seahawks mucked it up and barely escaped with the victory. Offensively, Seattle struggled all day long. While this could be just a product of Russell Wilson suffering an ankle injury mid-game, the lack of explosiveness was concerning.

Best: Kansas City’s Comeback Win

The Chiefs were drawing dead against San Diego at home. Then Keenan Allen goes down for the Chargers and the momentum of this game completely changed. Alex Smith and Spencer Ware engineered an amazing comeback to force overtime. Once they got to the overtime period, the outcome was all but academic. San Diego could not stop Kansas City in the second half and it was only a matter of time before the Chiefs clinched the comeback victory.

Worst: The Rams

What the hell happened last night? Seriously, this was an implosion if I ever saw one. San Francisco looked like it was holding the Rams’ play sheet the entire night. That wasn’t even the worst part of LA’s game last night. All-Pro Aaron Donald getting ejected punctuated a completely undisciplined performance by the Rams, which had over 100 yards worth of penalties (almost more yards than the offense mustered up). Quite possibly the worst way things could have started for the Rams in their second stint in Los Angeles.

Best: Kevin Harlan and the Streaker

Words can’t accurately describe this so just watch and enjoy.

 

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for my fantasy studs and duds for Week 1 and a list of waiver wire targets for Week 2. Join the conversation in the comments section or on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Happy Monday everyone! Good to see everyone survived the near heart attack that was the first NFL Sunday of the season. Three games decided by a single point, and only one game decided by double digits (Carson Wentz taking care of business). Week 1 delivered in a big way. I’ll go into detail about each game tomorrow since there are still two games left to play tonight. That being said, I will give my big takeaways from the weekend, and finish up with a preview of the Monday Night Football doubleheader tonight.

 

NCAA: Bad day for the Big 12

On what could be considered an “off” weekend for college football, two perennial contenders in the Big 12 took heartbreaking losses. TCU lost in double overtime to a tough Arkansas team and Oklahoma State got robbed of a victory by the refs (who were rightly suspended by the conference afterwards). I do have to credit Central Michigan for seizing the opportunity gifted to them against Oklahoma State, giving us the play of the weekend in college football. To explain why the refs bungled the end of this game, Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph tried to just throw a ball up and out of bounds to bleed out the clock on fourth down. Rudolph succeeded but was rightly called for intentional grounding. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, the officials wrongly awarded Central Michigan the ball for an untimed down. But as they say, that’s the way the cookie crumbles. With these losses piling up, Texas may be the Big 12’s only hope for a representative in the College Football Playoff.

 

NFL: Short-handed Patriots upset Cardinals on the road.

You read that one right. The Pats won against one of the favorites to win the NFC without Brady, Gronk, and left tackle Nate Solder (among others). Every team in the league should be sick about that result because there is now a very real possibility that Tom Brady comes back to an undefeated Patriots team in Week 5. The Jets, Bills, and Dolphins can also kiss their chances of winning the division goodbye too. The rest of the AFC should shudder in fear because the road to Super Bowl is going through New England. Book this right now, the Patriots will have home-field advantage in the playoffs.

 

Monday Night Preview

Steelers at Washington

The Monday Night Football opener emanates from the nation’s capital as the Redskins host the Steelers. I’m a huge believer in Pittsburgh this year and think they have the potential to be the second-best team in the AFC. It’s going to be a huge test for Washington’s prized free agent Josh Norman going against the best receiver in the NFL, Antonio Brown. It should be a good game, but I like the Steelers to control the game securing a nice road win in the opener.

 

Rams at 49ers

The nightcap features an NFC West showdown between Los Angeles and San Francisco. I don’t really expect many fireworks in this game, because these are two mediocre offenses. LA is going to grind down a 49ers defense that will be on the field for most of this game (just a reality of a Chip Kelly team). Todd Gurley may start slow early but take over as the game progresses, especially in the second half. It won’t look pretty, might even be a snoozer, but the Rams get the win tonight in San Francisco.

 

I’ll be back tomorrow with a full recap of Week 1 in the NFL, my fantasy studs/duds from the opening week, followed up with a waiver-wire target list for Week 2. Join the conversation in the comments section or social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

The weekend is here folks, time for another edition of the viewer guide! After an amazing opening weekend of college football, the collegiate game takes a step back for the NFL to take control of our airwaves. Friday and Saturday are a little light compared to the all-day football bonanza on Sunday. Now I should explain that for my NFL selections for the viewer guide I’m not taking regional coverage into account. I’m giving you the best games to watch here, unfortunately some regions get stuck with bad games, and that is way above my pay grade. Sunday NFL Ticket now has a streaming package outside of DirecTV, so I’m going to cater to that crowd for the NFL.

Friday Night (9/9)

#13 Louisville vs. Syracuse (8:00 PM, ESPN2)

Louisville heads to the Carrier Dome to face the Orange. I expect the Cardinals to win this game big behind its quarterback Lamar Jackson. He’s worth watching this game until it gets out of hand. Jackson accounted for eight touchdowns last week against Charlotte, and while Syracuse is a better team Jackson should put up big numbers once again.

Saturday (9/10)

Virginia Tech vs. #17 Tennessee (8:00 PM, ABC)

It’s a pretty lackluster day for college football with no top-25 matchups on the slate. This should be a pretty good game in primetime though. This is technically a neutral site game as this contest will take place at Bristol Motor Speedway, but this is a virtual home game for the Volunteers. Frank Beamer is no longer on the sidelines for the Hokies, but Virginia Tech always is a tough out. Tennessee almost lost to Appalachian State last week, which is not a good sign for a team with national title hopes. I’m putting the Volunteers on upset alert Saturday night.

Sunday (9/11)

Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 PM, FOX)

Green Bay is rightly the favorite in this game and should jump out to a big lead against Jacksonville on the road. Don’t change the channel though, Jacksonville was the best team in the league last season when down double-digits and I expect them to keep this game interesting until the final whistle.

Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints (1:00 PM, FOX)

The Saints always play well at home no matter who the opponent happens to be. I’m expecting this game to be a shootout with the Raiders coming out on top. A 35-31 game is not out of the question here and will have a ton of fantasy football implications.

Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts (4:25 PM, FOX)

Speaking of shootouts, this is another game where points could be scored in bunches. Both teams like to air it out on offense which is good for the fans, so it’ll be a fun game to watch. Also there will be plenty of mentions for Detroit offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter (for my money, the best name in the league) as his offensive scheme turned Detroit around last season. It will also be the first look at a healthy Andrew Luck in 2016 as he looks to rebound from a rough 2015.

New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals (8:30 PM, NBC)

On paper, Arizona should win this game handily with Tom Brady sitting out the first game of his suspension. Don’t count out the Patriots though. Bill Belichick won eleven games with Matt Cassel at quarterback a few years ago and I expect him to have Jimmy Garrapolo ready with a good gameplan Sunday night. This is totally a coincidence but somehow NBC always ends up with the most entertaining games no matter the matchup (flex-schedule not withstanding).

 

Have a great weekend everyone! I’ll be back on Monday to recap the weekend, dissect the first Sunday in the NFL and Fantasy Football, and preview the Monday Night Football doubleheader. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Wow it’s Friday already and the first NFL Sunday is right around the corner. This will be the first edition of the “No Huddle” blog. I’ll recap anything big that happened in the Thursday night game, make my picks against the spread, and dish out some fantasy advice.

So how about that game last night? Really didn’t think Denver had a chance to take down Carolina but I guess that’s why they play the game. Not the best start for my picks against the spread, but I can take some solace in at least having the under pick correct. Carolina looks just fine on defense without Josh Norman, although they are going to have to decide whether this is a power running team or a team that wants throw more on offense. Kelvin Benjamin didn’t miss a beat in his first action in over a year. Denver is still winning ugly games with its defense. Trevor Siemian didn’t blow me away but he played pretty well for what Gary Kubiak asked of him last night. These are still two of the upper echelon teams in the NFL, but I don’t think we’re getting another rematch anytime soon.

Last night was a good showing for both teams, but doesn’t really affect my playoff predictions. Without further ado, here are my playoff picks for 2016.

NFC East – New York Giants (10-6)

NFC North – Green Bay Packers (13-3)

NFC South – Carolina Panthers (12-4)

NFC West – Arizona Cardinals (12-4)

NFC Wild Cards – Seattle Seahawks (11-5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)

AFC East – New England Patriots (11-5)

AFC North – Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

AFC South – Houston Texans (10-6)

AFC West – Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)

AFC Wild Cards – Denver Broncos (10-6), Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

 

NFC Title Game – Arizona @ Green Bay

AFC Title Game – New England @ Pittsburgh

Super Bowl LI – Arizona vs New England

Super Bowl Champion – Arizona

I’m going all in on Arizona this season. I think that when healthy this is the best team in the NFL on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady is going to tear up the NFL and look unstoppable in the process, until he faces this Cardinal defense in the Super Bowl.

We’ll see how close I get with these picks later this year, now lets move on to my picks against the spread for Week 1. (Winners in Bold)

1:00 PM Games

Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Atlanta

Minnesota (-2.5) at Tennessee

Cleveland at Philadelphia (-3.5)

Chicago at Houston (-6)

Buffalo (+3) at Baltimore

Green Bay (-5.5) at Jacksonville

Cincinnati at New York Jets (+2.5)

Oakland (+1.5) at New Orleans

San Diego at Kansas City (-6.5)

 

4:05/4:25 PM Games

Miami at Seattle (-10.5)

Detroit at Indianapolis (-3)

New York Giants (EVEN) at Dallas

 

Sunday Night Football

New England at Arizona (-6)

 

Monday Night Football

Pittsburgh (-3) at Washington

Los Angeles (-2.5) at San Francisco

 

Quickly I’m going to give a few start/sit picks for this week in fantasy football. You’ll notice I try to stay away from the obvious picks because you should always start your studs.

Start: Michael Crabtree vs. New Orleans Saints

This game will be a shootout between two of the best passing offenses in the NFL. Crabtree quietly led the Raiders in targets last season. Expect a great game from Crabtree.

Sit: DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry vs. Minnesota Vikings

I like this two-pronged attack Tennessee has at running back long-term, but not this week against Minnesota. The Vikings have one of the best front-sevens in the NFL, and there won’t be much room to run on Sunday.

Start: Spencer Ware vs. San Diego Chargers

First, if he’s still available in your league’s free agency, go pick him up now. He’s primed for a big day against San Diego with Jamaal Charles likely out on Sunday. Ware will be tabbed for early down work and more importantly, redzone touches.

Sit: Jeremy Hill vs. New York Jets

Hill was incredibly inconsistent last season, and it doesn’t help that he starts 2016 against the Jets. New York was one of the best run defenses in the NFL last season. It will be tough sledding on Sunday for Hill.

Start: Jameis Winston vs. Atlanta Falcons

A big year for “Famous” Jameis starts Sunday with a great matchup against Atlanta. While this defense is improving from being known as the Atlanta Sieves, it is still vulnerable against this vertical passing attack.

Sit: Phillip Rivers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs were one of the best defenses in the NFL last season and will feast on this offensive line, which is bad news for Rivers. Kansas City will force at least a pair of turnovers and rack up sacks on Sunday.

 

Enjoy the games this Sunday everyone! Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for the Weekend Viewer Guide. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

At long last it’s the final installment of my 2016 NFL preview. I saved the best for last as the NFC West takes center stage. This division features two of the best teams in football (Arizona and Seattle) and will make for the best divisional race in 2016. The Rams made a big trade to nab the number one pick in the draft, starred in this season of Hard Knocks, and moved back to Los Angeles, what that means on the field remains to be seen. The Chip Kelly NFL experiment now resides in San Francisco and faces numerous challenges in his first season. Those are just the quick hits from this division; let’s take a deeper look at the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals had a statement season in 2015, going 13-3 en route to winning the NFC West. This team featured one of the best offenses in the league and a dangerous defense. Both sides of the ball look virtually the same from last year, which is a bad thing for the rest of the league. Offensively this team was juggernaut, attacking defenses aggressively downfield. All of the key players are back and ready to go this season, including Carson Palmer to run the show. The x-factor for the Cards will be running back David Johnson, who burst onto the scene late last season and is drawing comparisons to Hall of Famer, Marshall Faulk. This offense looks like it will pick up right where it left off in 2015, and potentially even more dangerous. Health is the only thing that could hold this offense back as quarterback Carson Palmer is prone to getting banged up over the course of the season.

Playing in complement to this lethal offense is an equally dangerous defense. This unit ranked in the top-ten statistically last season and has the makings of getting even better. Arizona traded for linebacker Chandler Jones in the offseason and drafted defensive end Robert Nkemdiche to bolster an already formidable front-seven. The healthy return of Tyrann Mathieu to the secondary only adds to the firepower of this unit. I expect big things out of Arizona on defense, even more than this vaunted offense.

Barring injury, Arizona is a lock for the playoffs. Whether they win the division and push for home field, or have to gut out a Wild Card run will come down to the pivotal games with Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks

Last season saw the rest of the NFC catch up to Pete Carroll’s Seahawks. They went from being a play away from repeating as champions in 2014 to getting stunned by Carolina in the Divisional round in the playoffs. A season-ending injury to Marshawn Lynch prepared Seattle for his retirement in the offseason. With all the bad news out of the way, these are still the Seahawks and Russell Wilson is still at the helm. Wilson was magnificent last season and continued to show improvement as he climbs up the rankings of the league’s best signal callers. He has three dynamic receivers to get the ball to in Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockette, and Jermaine Kearse. Filling in for “Beast Mode” at running back will be a combination of Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael. Rawls looked great last season prior to an injury, while Michael finally looks like he’s living up to his potential. Now if only Pete Carroll and his staff can figure out the chemistry issues with Jimmy Graham they would really have a potentially unstoppable offense on their hands.

If you’ve watched the NFL the last three season then you already know what the story is with Seattle on defense. The Legion of Boom is back once again to terrorize opposing offenses. The combination of Richard Sherman, Cam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas make this the best secondary in the game. Linebacker Bobby Wagner mans the middle of the defense while Michael Bennett wreaks havoc on the defensive line. This will be the strength of Seattle once again this season.

Like I mentioned with Arizona, Seattle should be a lock for the playoffs. Right now I’m giving a slight edge to Arizona for the division crown, but it will all come down to the two head-to-head matchups between these two teams.

Los Angeles Rams

I’m still getting used to writing Los Angeles, but the Rams big move this offseason brought them to the bright lights of Hollywood (well not exactly Hollywood, but you get the point). The Rams then traded up to select California quarterback Jared Goff with the top pick in the draft (although he won’t be ready to play just yet). Aside from that nothing has really changed. Offensively, LA will be looking to pound the ball with Todd Gurley, then use speedster Tavon Austin in gimmick plays to surprise the defense. Case Keenum will be at the helm until coach Jeff Fisher decides to make the move to Goff. If that happens, this season will have already been lost for the Rams.

Defensively, you can’t deny what the Rams have put together. This is one of the best defensive lines in football led by All-Pro Aaron Donald in the middle. It’s a unit on par with some of the best defenses in the league talent-wise. They make it tough to score points and force turnovers. Sounds like a recipe for success right? Well yes and no. The front-seven are tough to beat, but losses in the secondary in free agency leave the back-end vulnerable. Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod left for greener pastures and will be extremely difficult to replace.

This is a Jeff Fisher led team, and they’ll likely be flirting with the .500 mark all season long. Sorry coach, I know you don’t want to go 7-9 again, but there isn’t much here to put you over the top.

San Francisco 49ers

Now I could take the easy way out and just post a picture of a dumpster on fire here. But where is the fun in that? This is going to be a bad team this year, there really isn’t any way around that. Chip Kelly takes over a team that looks light years different from the team that made the Super Bowl a few years ago. Truthfully, having watched Chip Kelly in Philadelphia for almost three seasons didn’t inspire much confidence in his ability to coach in the NFL. Every defensive coach in the league looks well-read on his tendencies and schemes after bringing his lightning-fast offense into the league. This leaves little-to-no chance for success for the defense either. There isn’t much to love about this offense, which is almost devoid of talent. The same goes with the defense, outside of NaVarro Bowman (man do I feel bad for him, he’s one of the best LBs in the game and being wasted in his prime years). To sum all of this up, San Francisco will be the worst team in football in 2016.

 

Check back tomorrow as I make my playoff predictions for 2016, my betting picks for Week 1, fantasy advice for Sunday, and another edition of the Weekend Viewer Guide. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Part Seven of the NFL preview is here, and I’m just going to jump right in with a look at the AFC South. Houston made the big moves in free agency trying to take the next step forward while Indianapolis regrouped after a lost season. Jacksonville and Tennessee continue to build around a young core of players. This is a division where everyone has something to prove which should make for an interesting race for the AFC South title this season.

Houston Texans

The Texans narrowly edged out a battered Colts team to win this division last season only to lose in the Wild Card round to Kansas City. Houston already sports one of the top defenses in the league, but needed to revamp a stagnant offense. Oh did they revamp by the way. Free agency was wild in Houston as the Texans brought in running back Lamar Miller to replace Arian Foster, and quarterback Brock Osweiler to replace Brian Hoyer. Miller was comically underused in Miami and immediately will become the workhorse for this offense. Osweiler spent his entire career to this point behind Peyton Manning (a pretty good guy to learn from if I must say), and showed plenty promise when he got his opportunity to play last season. That isn’t to say the “Brock Lobster” is going to be the next big thing, as he did struggle to the point where Denver had to throw whatever was left of Manning back into the fray last season. Osweiler has a bevy of weapons at his disposal though. Receiver DeAndre Hopkins broke out in a big way last season establishing himself as one of the top players at his position. Houston also added speedster Will Fuller and potentially dynamic slot threat Braxton Miller in the draft to round out the receiving core. All told, this offense has the potential to be prolific if head coach Bill O’Brian can get the best out of his newly acquired quarterback.

Houston will once again have one of the best defenses in the league led by three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt. Amazingly, Watt looks to be ready for Week 1 after undergoing back surgery in the offseason. A healthy Watt in place means big things for this defense, as he is its driving force. It’s going to be a make-or-break season for former number-one pick Jadeveon Clowney. He looks to be healthy for the first time in his young career, and if he can reach the potential he showed at South Carolina this defense could push Denver and Carolina for the top defense in the league.

The improvements on offense and a healthy defense give Houston the best chance to take this division. It remains to be seen what this means for a long playoff run, but there is a lot of potential for the Texans to be a dark horse in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck’s health is the key for the Colts in 2016. The offensive line was incapable of protecting its franchise quarterback last year and led to an injury-shortened season for Luck. Prior to his injury troubles, Luck did struggle at times last season. I believe that to be a product of the offensive line issues and not Luck’s ability, because he has looked like an all-time great when playing his best. Frank Gore is back to lead the running game, which is the changeup for this team’s offensive attack. The fastball? Well that is Luck and his weapons on the outside. T.Y. Hilton is the home run threat here, but I think the go-to guy will be Donte Moncrief, who looks ready for a huge breakout season. The Colts spent top draft picks trying to sure up this offensive line, which gave up 37 sacks a year ago. Ryan Kelly could be the key to improved offensive line play this season. However if this line struggles again, it could be another disappointing season in Indy.

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this defense coming out of training camp. Vontae Davis is a lockdown corner but it’s the other ten players on defense that I have questions about. It’s an older defense at key positions and the depth chart looks razor thin. The Colts need this offense to return to form in order to mask the issues this defense will potentially have as the year progresses.

Overall, the Colts have firepower on offense but this defense could be a major letdown. I don’t think that Indy has enough to stop Houston from taking this division once again.

Jacksonville Jaguars

For the first time in over a decade, there is promise in Jacksonville. This roster is oozing with young talent on both sides of the ball and has this team ready to climb out of the basement of the NFL. Receiver Allen Robinson was a beast last season for quarterback Blake Bortles. This offense had some serious production last season, albeit in “garbage time” (a whooping 83% of their touchdowns were scored down 10+ points). Free agent acquisition Chris Ivory signals a more balanced attack this season for the Jags. Ivory will be in a committee with second-year running back T.J. Yeldon to start the season. A commitment to the running game could mean some big opportunities in the play-action passing game and more efficiency in the redzone. Tight end Julius Thomas is healthy to begin his second year in Jacksonville and will be another potential weapon at Bortles’s disposal.

While this offense is pretty exciting, I’m looking at the young defense that Jacksonville has put together in the past two drafts. Defensive back Jalen Ramsey is being touted as the second-coming of Charles Woodson, linebacker Myles Jack saw his draft stock plummet due to injury concerns (but when healthy is a flat-out stud), and last year’s first round pick, defensive end Dante Fowler Jr., is back from injury. These three young players are the core in which this defense is built around, and I think this will lead to a much improved unit in 2016.

Some analysts are jumping to say that Jacksonville sneaks into the playoffs, but I’m a little more reserved in my outlook for the Jags. This will be a much more balanced offense and an improved defense, but 2016 will only be a building block for a team that is a year away from the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans

Year two for Marcus Mariota will look a little brighter than 2015. The reason for that will be the much-improved group at running back. The Titans traded for former rushing champion DeMarco Murray then snagged Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry in draft. That will take a lot of pressure off Mariota to beat teams in the passing attack. It will also allow Tennessee to utilize Mariota’s most dangerous attribute, his legs. Reports out of camp point to the Titans using some more designed QB runs to keep defenses on their toes. There isn’t much to love at receiver, although Tajae Sharpe will be a name to keep an eye on. Ultimately, this will be a run-heavy offense that will look to control time of possession and protect the ball (the Titans ranked 31^st in turnovers in 2015).

Defensively, the Titans will likely struggle again, with no major acquisitions in free agency to bolster an influx of youth from the draft. Tennessee used two of its three second round picks on defensive end Kevin Dodd and defensive tackle Austin Johnson. I just don’t see anything about this defense that should strike fear into the opposition.

Overall this will be another long season for Tennessee as they continue to build this team from the ground up. Another top-10 draft pick looks likely for the Titans.

 

Shooting the Moon is working some serious overtime today, one more division left to go in the 2016 NFL Preview before the season kicks off tonight. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Opening night of the NFL season is finally here! It only seems like a little while ago that we were all settled in for Super Bowl 50. Flash-forward a few months and we are starting right where the NFL left us in February. Denver and Carolina open the regular season in the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 1970.

I’ve got a few more divisional previews to get through before the season kicks off so I won’t spend too much time talking about tonight’s game. I like Carolina tonight, just think they come in with a chip on their shoulder and the defense feasts on Trevor Siemian in his first NFL start. Take Carolina -3 and the under (41.5 points), and let’s start this season with a win.

Speaking of Carolina, I’m starting today’s round of previews by looking at the NFC South.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were the unstoppable force of the NFL last season behind MVP Cam Newton and a stellar defense. Unfortunately they ran into the immovable object that was the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. Carolina comes into this season looking for redemption following the loss to the Broncos, but history is not on their side as the Super Bowl loser rarely does well the next season. However, this team is set up to buck that trend. The offense will be improved from last season with the return of Kelvin Benjamin at receiver. Benjamin won’t be the only weapon at Newton’s disposal. Receiver Devin Funchess reportedly had an amazing camp and looks primed for a breakout sophomore season. Tight end Greg Olsen is Mr. Reliable in this offense and should continue to be the safety valve for his quarterback.

Defensively the Panthers did suffer losses in the offseason. Carolina cut first-team All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman in the offseason after a contract dispute, and lost Charles Tillman to retirement. These losses can be absorbed with the ferocious front-seven this defense sports. Led by first-team All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly and linebacker Thomas Davis, yards and points are tough to come by against Carolina.

I don’t see Carolina going 15-1 again this year but this is still an elite team in the NFL. The Panthers should win this division outright and will push for home-field advantage once again.

Atlanta Falcons

Last season was the tale of two halves for Atlanta. After a scorching hot start at the beginning of the year, the Falcons crashed back to Earth in the second half of the season. Atlanta made some key additions to this offense in the offseason in an attempt to prevent another second-half collapse. The most important was the addition of former All-Pro center Alex Mack in free agency, which will anchor this offensive line and provide some much needed consistency. That will give running back Devonta Freeman more room to run. Freeman was the surprise breakout star of last season, reeling off monster games for Atlanta prior to the team-wide struggles in the second half. All-Pro receiver Julio Jones is getting some much-needed support on the outside with the addition of Mohamed Sanu. The former Bengal flashed promise in his time in Cincinnati and should be a nice fit in the Atlanta offense. Atlanta’s offensive success rests on the shoulder of quarterback Matt Ryan. He’ll need to cut down on his interceptions, especially in the redzone, to keep this offense moving in the right direction.

Head coach Dan Quinn continues to rebuild this defense in his second season at the helm. Things looked better for Atlanta defensively during its hot start last season, but just like the offense, things sputtered in the second half. There were no splashy free agent moves on this side of the ball, but they did draft safety Keanu Neal to man the back-end of the secondary. He underwent a knee surgery early in camp, but should return early this season. Neal, when healthy, is a fantastic player in the run game and could be just the dynamic force to help turn this defense around. If you remember, Dan Quinn came from Seattle and is working off of the Legion of Boom blueprint as he builds this defense. Neal could be one of the cornerstones of that blueprint.

Atlanta should be a competitive team, but I’m not in love with their playoff chances since the Wild Card teams will likely need to have ten or eleven wins. They’ll be in the playoff hunt though.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The story for the Bucs this season is all about the offense. Tampa Bay fired coach Lovie Smith in the offseason and promoted offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach. This means that Tampa is pushing all of its chips behind this offense and quarterback Jameis Winston, which looks like a smart move. Winston threw for over 4,000 yards last season (becoming the youngest QB to ever do so), and showed some serious potential. Receiver Mike Evans had an up-and-down season in 2015, but still managed to break 1,200 yards receiving despite only scoring three touchdowns. The Winston-Evans connection is primed to be one of the best in the league and will open this entire offense up for guys like Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins to make big contributions.

The Bucs drafted heavily on the defensive side of the ball in May, and will need those rookies to hit the ground running in 2016. This defense ranked tenth in yards allowed, but 26^th in points allowed. Tampa Bay desperately needs this defense to get off the field more often and force more turnovers in the process. Improved play on this side of the ball will be a welcome sight for a team that is looking to make serious strides on offense.

Tampa Bay plays a fourth place schedule in the NFC and is one of the big reasons why I like them to push for a playoff spot. That means having to win twice against Atlanta and New Orleans, which is not a tall order. The Bucs could be the surprise of the conference in 2016.

New Orleans Saints

New year, same story for New Orleans. The ink has barely even dried on Drew Brees’s huge contract extension just before the season kicks off. Brees is still one of the premier quarterbacks in this league in an offense that produces annually. Receiver Brandin Cooks will be the top target in this offense, and the budding star could top 100 catches this season. Willie Snead was a surprise contributor last season and he has carved out a nice role in this passing attack. Running back Mark Ingram was on pace to break 1,000 yards rushing before a shoulder injury cut his season shot. Ingram is fully healthy and will be the bell-cow once again this season, giving this high-powered offense a tough-running option to go to in the redzone.

The Saints will have to put up plenty of points on offense because this defense is awful. New Orleans ranked near the bottom of the league in all key statistics and prevented this team from making a playoff push. They tried to add some young depth to this unit in the draft, but this unit is far from being formidable. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will have his hands full in turning this porous unit around in 2016.

I really don’t like the playoff hopes for New Orleans this season. They have the offense to beat 90% of the teams in this league, but this defense can’t protect a lead or even get the ball back to its offense. 8-8 would be a stretch for the Saints this season.

 

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for parts seven and eight of my NFL preview later today. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.