Welcome to Week 3 everyone. We’re going to learn a lot about who’s for real and who just got off to a hot start. Houston may have been revealed as a “hot start” team on Thursday against the Patriots. At a certain point, I just don’t know how anyone, myself included, can pick against New England. They had a great gameplan and executed with minimal error, whereas Houston had a similar plan but turned the ball over three times (two fumbles on kick returns) stifling any chance of taking momentum away. I do believe that Houston is a better team than what they showed against the Patriots, but clearly this is not an upper-echelon team in the AFC.

So now with the Thursday night game in the rearview, lets take a quick look at some of the things I’m looking at this week before getting to my game picks. I think one of the best ways I’ve heard Week 3 described came from Bill Simmons on the “B.S. Podcast.” He described this as the “rock, paper, scissors” week where we’ll find out what a team is really going to be this season. We know that Carolina, Denver, and Pittsburgh are solid teams along with New England, but what teams are in that next tier and trying to topple the top dogs.

Those fringe teams are the ones I’ll be keeping an eye on this week, and I don’t think any of those draw a tougher matchup than the Minnesota Vikings. I still think despite the loss of Adrian Peterson that Minnesota is the dark horse team to win the NFC over Carolina. Funny thing is that they will play the Panthers this week in Charlotte. This is the matchup of the week for me, and hopefully should produce on hell of a game between two of the best defenses in the NFL. Carolina should hold serve in this one but I am a huge fan of Vikings coach Mike Zimmer and believe he’ll have his team ready for a slugfest with the Panthers.

On the AFC side of things there a few games that caught my attention when looking at the slate of games. First, the Jets and Chiefs square off in a game that will likely have playoff implications down the line. A loss for either would give them two losses against AFC opponents (a key tiebreaker for a playoff spot). Each team needs to try and keep pace with its respective division leader as well. The Jets are looking like they will be without Brandon Marshall for this game, which is less than ideal playing against one of the best secondaries in the league. Kansas City is a tough place to win, give the Chiefs the advantage there.

The second game that caught my eye is the Denver-Cincinnati game. This will be a good test to see what this Denver offense is made of. They will be on the road against a playoff caliber team. The Bengals have a lot at stake here especially after losing to Pittsburgh last week. I expect a very physical battle between two hard-nosed defenses. Cincinnati will likely dare Trevor Siemian to beat them throwing the ball, and I want to see if he can (it’s the only question mark I’ve had all year with Denver).

My under-the-radar matchup this week is the Raiders-Titans. It’s a game that has me curious to see what I’ll find. Oakland had the great win in Week 1 but fell short in Week 2. Tennessee cost itself an upset win in Week 1 and stole a game right out from under Detroit in Week 2. This another one of those games where we’ll find out a lot about each team. I think that Oakland has the offense to get a playoff spot, but the defense has underwhelmed. On the other side Tennessee has played tough and stayed in games against Minnesota and Detroit. If they hadn’t allowed two defense touchdowns against the Vikings, the Titans actually could have been 2-0 coming into this game. It will certainly be a game to keep an eye on.

So now on to my picks for Week 3, and honestly I think I’m starting to pick up some steam after last week. It was a winning week for the Shooting the Moon picks. Rather than toot my own horn (if I do go on a run, there will plenty of horn tooting), let’s just get to the picks. (Winners in Bold)

This Week: 0-1   Last Week: 10-6   2016: 18-14

1:00 PM

Arizona (-3.5) @ Buffalo

Oakland (-1) @ Tennessee

Cleveland @ Miami (-9)

Baltimore (EVEN) @ Jacksonville

Denver (+3.5) @ Cincinnati

Detroit @ Green Bay (-7)

Minnesota (+6.5) @ Carolina

Washington @ NY Giants (-3)

 

4:05/4:25 PM

Los Angeles @ Tampa Bay (-4.5)

San Francisco (+10) @ Seattle

NY Jets @ Kansas City (-3)

San Diego @ Indianapolis (-1)

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Philadelphia

 

Sunday Night Football

Chicago @ Dallas (-6.5)

 

Enjoy all the games and the best of luck to your teams. I’ll be in Philadelphia tomorrow for Eagles-Steelers but I’ll be back on Monday to recap the weekend and preview Monday Night Football between New Orleans and Atlanta. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.