Reality of Fantasy: Week 1 Studs/Duds, Week 2 Waiver Wire Targets

The first week of fantasy is officially behind us, hopefully most of you started out with a nice victory to kick-start the season. If you didn’t, it’s not the end of the world. It’s a long season and the real work starts now as the all-important waiver wire comes into play. Like I’ve said in earlier posts, the draft is only the first part of the fantasy puzzle. In my experience, as long as you hover around .500 you will have a chance to get into the playoffs. No need to panic just yet fantasy owners, it was only one week. Now that we are officially underway with the season Shooting the Moon will have plenty of fantasy coverage under the “Reality of Fantasy” banner (it’ll make these posts easier to find as you’re scrolling through the site).

Before we can look forward to Week 2, let’s look back at the fantasy studs and duds of Week 1. A lot of big names disappointed in Week 1, but that is to be expected, it happens every season. It will help us shape our view of who to target and avoid as the season moves forward.

Studs: Drew Brees, Willie Snead, and Brandin Cooks

 

brandin-cooks-drew-brees-nfl-new-york-giants-new-orleans-saints.jpg

Photo credit: USA Today Sports

I have to put these three together because the production was off the charts this week and a very welcome sign of things to come from this trio. Brees (423 yards, 4 TDs) was able to pick apart the Oakland defense finding Snead and Cooks often for huge plays down the field. Cooks flashed that big play potential on a 98-yard touchdown in the third quarter that buoyed his fantasy output for the day (6 catches/9 targets, 143 yards, 2 TDs). Snead was the real surprise for me, showing he was more than just a one-hit wonder in 2015. It seemed like he was open all day long and the stats were flat-out incredible (9 catches/9 targets, 172 yards, and 1 TD). Snead is looking like an absolute steal if you got him in the middle of your draft.

Duds: Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins, and Lesean McCoy

usatsi_8086927.jpg

Photo credit: USA Today Sports

 

Just an ugly day for the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, there’s really no way around that. Granted, Baltimore looked great on defense. This doesn’t change the lack of any offensive output for this trio and the Bills offense as a whole. Taylor was a sleeper pick at quarterback by most fantasy experts and struggled all game long to a porous stat line by the Bills quarterback (111 yards passing, 11 yards rushing, 0 TDs). This offensive line didn’t help matters either. McCoy (16 attempts for 58 yards, 0 TDs; 4 catches/4 targets, 12 yards, 0 TDs) couldn’t find any room to run. The real concern here is Watkins (4 catches/6 targets, 43 yards, 0 TDs), who had a quiet day on Sunday. Yesterday’s news is the cause of the concern. The New York Daily News reported that the Bills may shut down Watkins for “several weeks” due to the lingering pain from his offseason foot surgery. Although the Bills denied the report, saying it’s a pain management situation for Watkins, this is not what you want to hear from a guy who has WR1 talent.

Stud: Andrew Luck

hi-res-92e3cbf38135652efcb23d166ac75a01_crop_north.jpg

Photo credit: Bleacher Report

He’s back, folks. 2014’s #1 fantasy QB, Andrew Luck looked like the guy that garnered “all-time great” hype prior to entering the league four years ago. Luck shredded the Lions secondary on his way to the top quarterback performance in fantasy this week (385 passing yards, 21 rushing yards, 4 TDs). With the way his defense played, Luck will be throwing the ball a lot this season. Expect this to be just the beginning of a huge comeback season for Luck.

Duds: Ezekiel Elliot and Dez Bryant

 

usatsi_9312150.jpg

Photo credit: USA Today Sports

All that preseason hype looked to be a little premature for Elliot (20 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD; 1 catch/2 targets, 1 yard, 0 TDs.). The Dallas offense as a whole was ineffective and looked a little gun-shy in Dak Prescott’s first career start. I still think that Elliot will be a great fantasy player, but this is far from what you expect from a potential top-five running back. Dez Bryant may have been the biggest victim of the conservative gameplan that Dallas deployed. Bryant was virtually non-existent on Sunday and the stat line is haunting for his owners (1 catch/5 targets, 8 yards, 0 TDs). I’m more concerned about Bryant than Elliot due to the usage of Jason Witten and Cole Beasley, who dominated the targets in the Dallas passing game.

Stud: Spencer Ware

 

hi-res-e47594c3cd7a4ad107cd71206436dd0d_crop_north.jpg

Photo credit: Bleacher Report

I really hope some of you listened to my advice and scooped him up if he was available. Ware ran wild and played a massive role in Kansas City’s comeback win over San Diego. He was a stud for PPR leagues last week (11 attempts, 70 yards, 1 TD; 7 catches/8 targets, 129 yards, 0 TD). He’s clearly the main running back in the offense in the short-term until Jamaal Charles returns in a few weeks.

Duds: Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson

devonta-freeman-spiking-ball.jpg

Photo credit: Sports Illustrated

Ugly games from the top two running backs in fantasy last season. Neither could get anything going in the running game. The Titans sold out to stop Peterson holding him to just 31 yards rushing on 19 carries. Long-term Peterson will be fine once Sam Bradford takes over at quarterback and loosens up the box. Freeman was lost in the mix in the Atlanta offense. His stat line was pretty pedestrian (11 carries, 20 yards, 0 TDs; 4 catches/4 targets, 20 yards, 0 TDs). The real concern for Freeman owners is the resurgence of Tevin Coleman in the offense. The carries and targets were split between the two backs, but Coleman was definitely more effective.

 

Turning our attention to Week 2, and some waiver wire targets you should have on your radar when making roster moves tonight. Truthfully this is a weaker group and I would be hesitant to use a lower waiver priority (bottom-half of your league) because we’ll have a much better idea of the breakout players in the coming weeks. Here are the top-3 guys you should be looking at this week.

(1) Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans

temp_3MP9553--nfl_mezz_1280_1024.jpeg

Photo credit: Houston Texans

In deeper leagues he likely went in your draft, but for smaller leagues he may still be available (according to ESPN he is only owned in about 60% of leagues). Fuller shined in his rookie debut on Sunday and looks like a legitimate contributor in the new-look Houston offense. His stat line is very promising, especially for PPR (7 catches/11 targets, 107 yards, 1 TD), and will be one of the names to keep an eye on when we talk about breakout players.

(2) Tajae Sharpe, WR, Tennessee Titans

tajae-sharpe.jpg

Photo credit: Getty Images

In a run-heavy offense, Sharpe had modest production in his rookie debut. His value is more suited for PPR (7 catches/11 targets, 76 yards, 0 TDs) but clearly he is the top target at receiver for the Titans. I like him as a flex-play once the bye weeks hit and Sharpe will be a great asset to bolster your bench for now.

(3) Eli Rogers, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

usatsi_9482825.jpg

Photo credit: USA Today Sports

While his touchdown came on a freak play, Rogers saw plenty of looks from Ben Roethlisberger last night. Much like Sharpe, his value is in PPR leagues but this offense loves to throw and he had 6 catches on 7 targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. He is another asset to grab for depth purposes for later in the season.

 

Check back tomorrow as I look at some of the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 2. Join the conversation in the comments section or social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

No Huddle: Power Rankings and the Best/Worst of Week 1

Week 1 of the NFL is in the books, and I almost wish we could have left it off on a better note than the 49ers shutting out the Rams (wow did I whiff on that game by the way). While the nightcap of the Monday Night Football double-header was the worst game of the week, we were still treated to one hell of a slate of games. Today’s edition of “No Huddle” I’m going to recap the best and worst of the opening week in the NFL.

Before I get to the best and worst things I saw on the field this weekend, lets take a look at my top five teams after Week 1.

(1) New England Patriots (1-0)

bill-belichick.vresize.1200.675.high.74.jpg

Photo credit: FoxSports.com

This should come as no surprise after the upset win for New England in Arizona on Sunday night. Completely short-handed, the Patriots were able to grind out a win against one of the top teams in the NFL. Credit Bill Belichick and his staff for having his team ready to go despite the losses they sustained outside of already not having Tom Brady. The Patriots now get three straight home games and have a legitimate shot at going 4-0 to start the year. That’s when the fun really starts in New England. Already kicking myself for not picking the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

(2) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

 

antonio-brown-twerk.png

Photo credit: si.com

Big Ben and company dominated the allegedly “upstart” Redskins last night. Pittsburgh looked as good as advertised on offense, and really makes me wonder how good this offense will be when Le’Veon Bell returns from his suspension in Week 4. The defense played well and made big plays when necessary against Washington. Linebacker Ryan Shazier was all over the field for the Steelers and I think his health will dictate how good this defense can be as the season progresses.

(3) Green Bay Packers (1-0)

arod.0.gif

Video credit: SB Nation

Okay don’t let the four-point victory over Jacksonville fool you. This Packers team is legit, and that game told me more about the Jaguars improvements than Green Bay not being an elite team in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is still the best QB in the game and his weapons all made contributions on Sunday. The scary thought is what this offense will look like once everything is in rhythm.

(4) Denver Broncos (1-0)

635936530355371187-USP-NFL-New-England-Patriots-at-Denver-Broncos.jpg

Photo credit: USA Today

The defending champs proved that this defense is capable of carrying workload once again this season. Once the Broncos get a lead they morph into a scary football team. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware pin their ears back and unleash havoc on opposing quarterbacks. This offense is going to look pretty conservative with Trevor Siemian at the helm, but if running back CJ Anderson can continue to produce like he did in the opener they will be just fine. It may not be long before Denver jumps up in these standings.

 (5) Carolina Panthers (0-1)

i.jpeg

Photo credit: ESPN.com

 

Despite the loss in the opener, this is still a formidable team. Cam Newton will have to do a better job protecting himself though. Thursday night was concerning if I’m a Panthers fan considering the amount of shots he took. Kelvin Benjamin looked great and Greg Olsen continued to be the most reliable target in clutch situations. Defensively this is still the second-best unit in the league behind Denver. Carolina will be just fine in the NFC.

Teams to Watch: Houston, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Kansas City, Seattle

Now let’s take a look at the best and worst performances from Week 1.

Best: Oakland’s Comeback and Jack Del Rio’s Ballsy Call

mmqb-crabtree-grab.jpg

Photo credit: Getty Images

What a game we saw in New Orleans between the Saints and Raiders. I loved the poise showed by Oakland during this comeback victory on the road. Derek Carr showed no signs of regressing after a Pro Bowl season last year. More importantly, I loved the faith that head coach Jack Del Rio showed in his offense. He didn’t even hesitate making the call to go for the win in the final moments of the fourth quarter. That is a tone-setting win for the Raiders as they look to make the next step and make a run at the playoffs.

Worst: Seattle’s Lackluster Offensive Performance

FINS0917482 RUSSELL CTJ.jpeg

Photo credit: Miami Herald

I’m still scratching my head trying to figure out what happened with the Seahawks against Miami on Sunday. In what should have been a comfortable win at home against the Dolphins, the Seahawks mucked it up and barely escaped with the victory. Offensively, Seattle struggled all day long. While this could be just a product of Russell Wilson suffering an ankle injury mid-game, the lack of explosiveness was concerning.

Best: Kansas City’s Comeback Win

chiefs reax.jpeg

Photo credit: kansascity.com

The Chiefs were drawing dead against San Diego at home. Then Keenan Allen goes down for the Chargers and the momentum of this game completely changed. Alex Smith and Spencer Ware engineered an amazing comeback to force overtime. Once they got to the overtime period, the outcome was all but academic. San Diego could not stop Kansas City in the second half and it was only a matter of time before the Chiefs clinched the comeback victory.

Worst: The Rams

091316-NFL-Los-Angeles-Rams-Aaron-Donald.jpg

Photo credit: Fox Sports

What the hell happened last night? Seriously, this was an implosion if I ever saw one. San Francisco looked like it was holding the Rams’ play sheet the entire night. That wasn’t even the worst part of LA’s game last night. All-Pro Aaron Donald getting ejected punctuated a completely undisciplined performance by the Rams, which had over 100 yards worth of penalties (almost more yards than the offense mustered up). Quite possibly the worst way things could have started for the Rams in their second stint in Los Angeles.

Best: Kevin Harlan and the Streaker

Words can’t accurately describe this so just watch and enjoy.

 

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for my fantasy studs and duds for Week 1 and a list of waiver wire targets for Week 2. Join the conversation in the comments section or on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.