Part Seven of the NFL preview is here, and I’m just going to jump right in with a look at the AFC South. Houston made the big moves in free agency trying to take the next step forward while Indianapolis regrouped after a lost season. Jacksonville and Tennessee continue to build around a young core of players. This is a division where everyone has something to prove which should make for an interesting race for the AFC South title this season.

Houston Texans

The Texans narrowly edged out a battered Colts team to win this division last season only to lose in the Wild Card round to Kansas City. Houston already sports one of the top defenses in the league, but needed to revamp a stagnant offense. Oh did they revamp by the way. Free agency was wild in Houston as the Texans brought in running back Lamar Miller to replace Arian Foster, and quarterback Brock Osweiler to replace Brian Hoyer. Miller was comically underused in Miami and immediately will become the workhorse for this offense. Osweiler spent his entire career to this point behind Peyton Manning (a pretty good guy to learn from if I must say), and showed plenty promise when he got his opportunity to play last season. That isn’t to say the “Brock Lobster” is going to be the next big thing, as he did struggle to the point where Denver had to throw whatever was left of Manning back into the fray last season. Osweiler has a bevy of weapons at his disposal though. Receiver DeAndre Hopkins broke out in a big way last season establishing himself as one of the top players at his position. Houston also added speedster Will Fuller and potentially dynamic slot threat Braxton Miller in the draft to round out the receiving core. All told, this offense has the potential to be prolific if head coach Bill O’Brian can get the best out of his newly acquired quarterback.

Houston will once again have one of the best defenses in the league led by three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt. Amazingly, Watt looks to be ready for Week 1 after undergoing back surgery in the offseason. A healthy Watt in place means big things for this defense, as he is its driving force. It’s going to be a make-or-break season for former number-one pick Jadeveon Clowney. He looks to be healthy for the first time in his young career, and if he can reach the potential he showed at South Carolina this defense could push Denver and Carolina for the top defense in the league.

The improvements on offense and a healthy defense give Houston the best chance to take this division. It remains to be seen what this means for a long playoff run, but there is a lot of potential for the Texans to be a dark horse in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck’s health is the key for the Colts in 2016. The offensive line was incapable of protecting its franchise quarterback last year and led to an injury-shortened season for Luck. Prior to his injury troubles, Luck did struggle at times last season. I believe that to be a product of the offensive line issues and not Luck’s ability, because he has looked like an all-time great when playing his best. Frank Gore is back to lead the running game, which is the changeup for this team’s offensive attack. The fastball? Well that is Luck and his weapons on the outside. T.Y. Hilton is the home run threat here, but I think the go-to guy will be Donte Moncrief, who looks ready for a huge breakout season. The Colts spent top draft picks trying to sure up this offensive line, which gave up 37 sacks a year ago. Ryan Kelly could be the key to improved offensive line play this season. However if this line struggles again, it could be another disappointing season in Indy.

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this defense coming out of training camp. Vontae Davis is a lockdown corner but it’s the other ten players on defense that I have questions about. It’s an older defense at key positions and the depth chart looks razor thin. The Colts need this offense to return to form in order to mask the issues this defense will potentially have as the year progresses.

Overall, the Colts have firepower on offense but this defense could be a major letdown. I don’t think that Indy has enough to stop Houston from taking this division once again.

Jacksonville Jaguars

For the first time in over a decade, there is promise in Jacksonville. This roster is oozing with young talent on both sides of the ball and has this team ready to climb out of the basement of the NFL. Receiver Allen Robinson was a beast last season for quarterback Blake Bortles. This offense had some serious production last season, albeit in “garbage time” (a whooping 83% of their touchdowns were scored down 10+ points). Free agent acquisition Chris Ivory signals a more balanced attack this season for the Jags. Ivory will be in a committee with second-year running back T.J. Yeldon to start the season. A commitment to the running game could mean some big opportunities in the play-action passing game and more efficiency in the redzone. Tight end Julius Thomas is healthy to begin his second year in Jacksonville and will be another potential weapon at Bortles’s disposal.

While this offense is pretty exciting, I’m looking at the young defense that Jacksonville has put together in the past two drafts. Defensive back Jalen Ramsey is being touted as the second-coming of Charles Woodson, linebacker Myles Jack saw his draft stock plummet due to injury concerns (but when healthy is a flat-out stud), and last year’s first round pick, defensive end Dante Fowler Jr., is back from injury. These three young players are the core in which this defense is built around, and I think this will lead to a much improved unit in 2016.

Some analysts are jumping to say that Jacksonville sneaks into the playoffs, but I’m a little more reserved in my outlook for the Jags. This will be a much more balanced offense and an improved defense, but 2016 will only be a building block for a team that is a year away from the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans

Year two for Marcus Mariota will look a little brighter than 2015. The reason for that will be the much-improved group at running back. The Titans traded for former rushing champion DeMarco Murray then snagged Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry in draft. That will take a lot of pressure off Mariota to beat teams in the passing attack. It will also allow Tennessee to utilize Mariota’s most dangerous attribute, his legs. Reports out of camp point to the Titans using some more designed QB runs to keep defenses on their toes. There isn’t much to love at receiver, although Tajae Sharpe will be a name to keep an eye on. Ultimately, this will be a run-heavy offense that will look to control time of possession and protect the ball (the Titans ranked 31^st in turnovers in 2015).

Defensively, the Titans will likely struggle again, with no major acquisitions in free agency to bolster an influx of youth from the draft. Tennessee used two of its three second round picks on defensive end Kevin Dodd and defensive tackle Austin Johnson. I just don’t see anything about this defense that should strike fear into the opposition.

Overall this will be another long season for Tennessee as they continue to build this team from the ground up. Another top-10 draft pick looks likely for the Titans.

 

Shooting the Moon is working some serious overtime today, one more division left to go in the 2016 NFL Preview before the season kicks off tonight. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.