At long last it’s the final installment of my 2016 NFL preview. I saved the best for last as the NFC West takes center stage. This division features two of the best teams in football (Arizona and Seattle) and will make for the best divisional race in 2016. The Rams made a big trade to nab the number one pick in the draft, starred in this season of Hard Knocks, and moved back to Los Angeles, what that means on the field remains to be seen. The Chip Kelly NFL experiment now resides in San Francisco and faces numerous challenges in his first season. Those are just the quick hits from this division; let’s take a deeper look at the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals had a statement season in 2015, going 13-3 en route to winning the NFC West. This team featured one of the best offenses in the league and a dangerous defense. Both sides of the ball look virtually the same from last year, which is a bad thing for the rest of the league. Offensively this team was juggernaut, attacking defenses aggressively downfield. All of the key players are back and ready to go this season, including Carson Palmer to run the show. The x-factor for the Cards will be running back David Johnson, who burst onto the scene late last season and is drawing comparisons to Hall of Famer, Marshall Faulk. This offense looks like it will pick up right where it left off in 2015, and potentially even more dangerous. Health is the only thing that could hold this offense back as quarterback Carson Palmer is prone to getting banged up over the course of the season.

Playing in complement to this lethal offense is an equally dangerous defense. This unit ranked in the top-ten statistically last season and has the makings of getting even better. Arizona traded for linebacker Chandler Jones in the offseason and drafted defensive end Robert Nkemdiche to bolster an already formidable front-seven. The healthy return of Tyrann Mathieu to the secondary only adds to the firepower of this unit. I expect big things out of Arizona on defense, even more than this vaunted offense.

Barring injury, Arizona is a lock for the playoffs. Whether they win the division and push for home field, or have to gut out a Wild Card run will come down to the pivotal games with Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks

Last season saw the rest of the NFC catch up to Pete Carroll’s Seahawks. They went from being a play away from repeating as champions in 2014 to getting stunned by Carolina in the Divisional round in the playoffs. A season-ending injury to Marshawn Lynch prepared Seattle for his retirement in the offseason. With all the bad news out of the way, these are still the Seahawks and Russell Wilson is still at the helm. Wilson was magnificent last season and continued to show improvement as he climbs up the rankings of the league’s best signal callers. He has three dynamic receivers to get the ball to in Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockette, and Jermaine Kearse. Filling in for “Beast Mode” at running back will be a combination of Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael. Rawls looked great last season prior to an injury, while Michael finally looks like he’s living up to his potential. Now if only Pete Carroll and his staff can figure out the chemistry issues with Jimmy Graham they would really have a potentially unstoppable offense on their hands.

If you’ve watched the NFL the last three season then you already know what the story is with Seattle on defense. The Legion of Boom is back once again to terrorize opposing offenses. The combination of Richard Sherman, Cam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas make this the best secondary in the game. Linebacker Bobby Wagner mans the middle of the defense while Michael Bennett wreaks havoc on the defensive line. This will be the strength of Seattle once again this season.

Like I mentioned with Arizona, Seattle should be a lock for the playoffs. Right now I’m giving a slight edge to Arizona for the division crown, but it will all come down to the two head-to-head matchups between these two teams.

Los Angeles Rams

I’m still getting used to writing Los Angeles, but the Rams big move this offseason brought them to the bright lights of Hollywood (well not exactly Hollywood, but you get the point). The Rams then traded up to select California quarterback Jared Goff with the top pick in the draft (although he won’t be ready to play just yet). Aside from that nothing has really changed. Offensively, LA will be looking to pound the ball with Todd Gurley, then use speedster Tavon Austin in gimmick plays to surprise the defense. Case Keenum will be at the helm until coach Jeff Fisher decides to make the move to Goff. If that happens, this season will have already been lost for the Rams.

Defensively, you can’t deny what the Rams have put together. This is one of the best defensive lines in football led by All-Pro Aaron Donald in the middle. It’s a unit on par with some of the best defenses in the league talent-wise. They make it tough to score points and force turnovers. Sounds like a recipe for success right? Well yes and no. The front-seven are tough to beat, but losses in the secondary in free agency leave the back-end vulnerable. Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod left for greener pastures and will be extremely difficult to replace.

This is a Jeff Fisher led team, and they’ll likely be flirting with the .500 mark all season long. Sorry coach, I know you don’t want to go 7-9 again, but there isn’t much here to put you over the top.

San Francisco 49ers

Now I could take the easy way out and just post a picture of a dumpster on fire here. But where is the fun in that? This is going to be a bad team this year, there really isn’t any way around that. Chip Kelly takes over a team that looks light years different from the team that made the Super Bowl a few years ago. Truthfully, having watched Chip Kelly in Philadelphia for almost three seasons didn’t inspire much confidence in his ability to coach in the NFL. Every defensive coach in the league looks well-read on his tendencies and schemes after bringing his lightning-fast offense into the league. This leaves little-to-no chance for success for the defense either. There isn’t much to love about this offense, which is almost devoid of talent. The same goes with the defense, outside of NaVarro Bowman (man do I feel bad for him, he’s one of the best LBs in the game and being wasted in his prime years). To sum all of this up, San Francisco will be the worst team in football in 2016.

 

Check back tomorrow as I make my playoff predictions for 2016, my betting picks for Week 1, fantasy advice for Sunday, and another edition of the Weekend Viewer Guide. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Part Seven of the NFL preview is here, and I’m just going to jump right in with a look at the AFC South. Houston made the big moves in free agency trying to take the next step forward while Indianapolis regrouped after a lost season. Jacksonville and Tennessee continue to build around a young core of players. This is a division where everyone has something to prove which should make for an interesting race for the AFC South title this season.

Houston Texans

The Texans narrowly edged out a battered Colts team to win this division last season only to lose in the Wild Card round to Kansas City. Houston already sports one of the top defenses in the league, but needed to revamp a stagnant offense. Oh did they revamp by the way. Free agency was wild in Houston as the Texans brought in running back Lamar Miller to replace Arian Foster, and quarterback Brock Osweiler to replace Brian Hoyer. Miller was comically underused in Miami and immediately will become the workhorse for this offense. Osweiler spent his entire career to this point behind Peyton Manning (a pretty good guy to learn from if I must say), and showed plenty promise when he got his opportunity to play last season. That isn’t to say the “Brock Lobster” is going to be the next big thing, as he did struggle to the point where Denver had to throw whatever was left of Manning back into the fray last season. Osweiler has a bevy of weapons at his disposal though. Receiver DeAndre Hopkins broke out in a big way last season establishing himself as one of the top players at his position. Houston also added speedster Will Fuller and potentially dynamic slot threat Braxton Miller in the draft to round out the receiving core. All told, this offense has the potential to be prolific if head coach Bill O’Brian can get the best out of his newly acquired quarterback.

Houston will once again have one of the best defenses in the league led by three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt. Amazingly, Watt looks to be ready for Week 1 after undergoing back surgery in the offseason. A healthy Watt in place means big things for this defense, as he is its driving force. It’s going to be a make-or-break season for former number-one pick Jadeveon Clowney. He looks to be healthy for the first time in his young career, and if he can reach the potential he showed at South Carolina this defense could push Denver and Carolina for the top defense in the league.

The improvements on offense and a healthy defense give Houston the best chance to take this division. It remains to be seen what this means for a long playoff run, but there is a lot of potential for the Texans to be a dark horse in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck’s health is the key for the Colts in 2016. The offensive line was incapable of protecting its franchise quarterback last year and led to an injury-shortened season for Luck. Prior to his injury troubles, Luck did struggle at times last season. I believe that to be a product of the offensive line issues and not Luck’s ability, because he has looked like an all-time great when playing his best. Frank Gore is back to lead the running game, which is the changeup for this team’s offensive attack. The fastball? Well that is Luck and his weapons on the outside. T.Y. Hilton is the home run threat here, but I think the go-to guy will be Donte Moncrief, who looks ready for a huge breakout season. The Colts spent top draft picks trying to sure up this offensive line, which gave up 37 sacks a year ago. Ryan Kelly could be the key to improved offensive line play this season. However if this line struggles again, it could be another disappointing season in Indy.

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this defense coming out of training camp. Vontae Davis is a lockdown corner but it’s the other ten players on defense that I have questions about. It’s an older defense at key positions and the depth chart looks razor thin. The Colts need this offense to return to form in order to mask the issues this defense will potentially have as the year progresses.

Overall, the Colts have firepower on offense but this defense could be a major letdown. I don’t think that Indy has enough to stop Houston from taking this division once again.

Jacksonville Jaguars

For the first time in over a decade, there is promise in Jacksonville. This roster is oozing with young talent on both sides of the ball and has this team ready to climb out of the basement of the NFL. Receiver Allen Robinson was a beast last season for quarterback Blake Bortles. This offense had some serious production last season, albeit in “garbage time” (a whooping 83% of their touchdowns were scored down 10+ points). Free agent acquisition Chris Ivory signals a more balanced attack this season for the Jags. Ivory will be in a committee with second-year running back T.J. Yeldon to start the season. A commitment to the running game could mean some big opportunities in the play-action passing game and more efficiency in the redzone. Tight end Julius Thomas is healthy to begin his second year in Jacksonville and will be another potential weapon at Bortles’s disposal.

While this offense is pretty exciting, I’m looking at the young defense that Jacksonville has put together in the past two drafts. Defensive back Jalen Ramsey is being touted as the second-coming of Charles Woodson, linebacker Myles Jack saw his draft stock plummet due to injury concerns (but when healthy is a flat-out stud), and last year’s first round pick, defensive end Dante Fowler Jr., is back from injury. These three young players are the core in which this defense is built around, and I think this will lead to a much improved unit in 2016.

Some analysts are jumping to say that Jacksonville sneaks into the playoffs, but I’m a little more reserved in my outlook for the Jags. This will be a much more balanced offense and an improved defense, but 2016 will only be a building block for a team that is a year away from the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans

Year two for Marcus Mariota will look a little brighter than 2015. The reason for that will be the much-improved group at running back. The Titans traded for former rushing champion DeMarco Murray then snagged Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry in draft. That will take a lot of pressure off Mariota to beat teams in the passing attack. It will also allow Tennessee to utilize Mariota’s most dangerous attribute, his legs. Reports out of camp point to the Titans using some more designed QB runs to keep defenses on their toes. There isn’t much to love at receiver, although Tajae Sharpe will be a name to keep an eye on. Ultimately, this will be a run-heavy offense that will look to control time of possession and protect the ball (the Titans ranked 31^st in turnovers in 2015).

Defensively, the Titans will likely struggle again, with no major acquisitions in free agency to bolster an influx of youth from the draft. Tennessee used two of its three second round picks on defensive end Kevin Dodd and defensive tackle Austin Johnson. I just don’t see anything about this defense that should strike fear into the opposition.

Overall this will be another long season for Tennessee as they continue to build this team from the ground up. Another top-10 draft pick looks likely for the Titans.

 

Shooting the Moon is working some serious overtime today, one more division left to go in the 2016 NFL Preview before the season kicks off tonight. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.

Opening night of the NFL season is finally here! It only seems like a little while ago that we were all settled in for Super Bowl 50. Flash-forward a few months and we are starting right where the NFL left us in February. Denver and Carolina open the regular season in the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 1970.

I’ve got a few more divisional previews to get through before the season kicks off so I won’t spend too much time talking about tonight’s game. I like Carolina tonight, just think they come in with a chip on their shoulder and the defense feasts on Trevor Siemian in his first NFL start. Take Carolina -3 and the under (41.5 points), and let’s start this season with a win.

Speaking of Carolina, I’m starting today’s round of previews by looking at the NFC South.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were the unstoppable force of the NFL last season behind MVP Cam Newton and a stellar defense. Unfortunately they ran into the immovable object that was the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. Carolina comes into this season looking for redemption following the loss to the Broncos, but history is not on their side as the Super Bowl loser rarely does well the next season. However, this team is set up to buck that trend. The offense will be improved from last season with the return of Kelvin Benjamin at receiver. Benjamin won’t be the only weapon at Newton’s disposal. Receiver Devin Funchess reportedly had an amazing camp and looks primed for a breakout sophomore season. Tight end Greg Olsen is Mr. Reliable in this offense and should continue to be the safety valve for his quarterback.

Defensively the Panthers did suffer losses in the offseason. Carolina cut first-team All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman in the offseason after a contract dispute, and lost Charles Tillman to retirement. These losses can be absorbed with the ferocious front-seven this defense sports. Led by first-team All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly and linebacker Thomas Davis, yards and points are tough to come by against Carolina.

I don’t see Carolina going 15-1 again this year but this is still an elite team in the NFL. The Panthers should win this division outright and will push for home-field advantage once again.

Atlanta Falcons

Last season was the tale of two halves for Atlanta. After a scorching hot start at the beginning of the year, the Falcons crashed back to Earth in the second half of the season. Atlanta made some key additions to this offense in the offseason in an attempt to prevent another second-half collapse. The most important was the addition of former All-Pro center Alex Mack in free agency, which will anchor this offensive line and provide some much needed consistency. That will give running back Devonta Freeman more room to run. Freeman was the surprise breakout star of last season, reeling off monster games for Atlanta prior to the team-wide struggles in the second half. All-Pro receiver Julio Jones is getting some much-needed support on the outside with the addition of Mohamed Sanu. The former Bengal flashed promise in his time in Cincinnati and should be a nice fit in the Atlanta offense. Atlanta’s offensive success rests on the shoulder of quarterback Matt Ryan. He’ll need to cut down on his interceptions, especially in the redzone, to keep this offense moving in the right direction.

Head coach Dan Quinn continues to rebuild this defense in his second season at the helm. Things looked better for Atlanta defensively during its hot start last season, but just like the offense, things sputtered in the second half. There were no splashy free agent moves on this side of the ball, but they did draft safety Keanu Neal to man the back-end of the secondary. He underwent a knee surgery early in camp, but should return early this season. Neal, when healthy, is a fantastic player in the run game and could be just the dynamic force to help turn this defense around. If you remember, Dan Quinn came from Seattle and is working off of the Legion of Boom blueprint as he builds this defense. Neal could be one of the cornerstones of that blueprint.

Atlanta should be a competitive team, but I’m not in love with their playoff chances since the Wild Card teams will likely need to have ten or eleven wins. They’ll be in the playoff hunt though.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The story for the Bucs this season is all about the offense. Tampa Bay fired coach Lovie Smith in the offseason and promoted offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach. This means that Tampa is pushing all of its chips behind this offense and quarterback Jameis Winston, which looks like a smart move. Winston threw for over 4,000 yards last season (becoming the youngest QB to ever do so), and showed some serious potential. Receiver Mike Evans had an up-and-down season in 2015, but still managed to break 1,200 yards receiving despite only scoring three touchdowns. The Winston-Evans connection is primed to be one of the best in the league and will open this entire offense up for guys like Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins to make big contributions.

The Bucs drafted heavily on the defensive side of the ball in May, and will need those rookies to hit the ground running in 2016. This defense ranked tenth in yards allowed, but 26^th in points allowed. Tampa Bay desperately needs this defense to get off the field more often and force more turnovers in the process. Improved play on this side of the ball will be a welcome sight for a team that is looking to make serious strides on offense.

Tampa Bay plays a fourth place schedule in the NFC and is one of the big reasons why I like them to push for a playoff spot. That means having to win twice against Atlanta and New Orleans, which is not a tall order. The Bucs could be the surprise of the conference in 2016.

New Orleans Saints

New year, same story for New Orleans. The ink has barely even dried on Drew Brees’s huge contract extension just before the season kicks off. Brees is still one of the premier quarterbacks in this league in an offense that produces annually. Receiver Brandin Cooks will be the top target in this offense, and the budding star could top 100 catches this season. Willie Snead was a surprise contributor last season and he has carved out a nice role in this passing attack. Running back Mark Ingram was on pace to break 1,000 yards rushing before a shoulder injury cut his season shot. Ingram is fully healthy and will be the bell-cow once again this season, giving this high-powered offense a tough-running option to go to in the redzone.

The Saints will have to put up plenty of points on offense because this defense is awful. New Orleans ranked near the bottom of the league in all key statistics and prevented this team from making a playoff push. They tried to add some young depth to this unit in the draft, but this unit is far from being formidable. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will have his hands full in turning this porous unit around in 2016.

I really don’t like the playoff hopes for New Orleans this season. They have the offense to beat 90% of the teams in this league, but this defense can’t protect a lead or even get the ball back to its offense. 8-8 would be a stretch for the Saints this season.

 

Stay tuned to Shooting the Moon for parts seven and eight of my NFL preview later today. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.