I’ve often talked about fantasy football being like a stock market. Which player or team are you investing in over the course of the regular season? That question doesn’t have a simple answer given the nature of the NFL. All we can do is use the information we have and the history we have seen in order to make educated guesses to make our investment.

The key is to understanding what you are investing in and the risks that come with it. Sure, you can snag a target monster in a bad offense, but he’s likely the only guy there, which means he can be shut down on a given week. The same goes for grabbing a key player in a prolific offense. You know there will be consistency, but will he really hit his potential ceiling, or remain close to the high floor his offense provides?

Last season, people bought heavily into the Green Bay offense and they flopped from a fantasy perspective (I was one of those poor souls). Jacksonville didn’t win many games but they were a stellar fantasy offense. Minnesota was a playoff team, but outside of Adrian Peterson, there wasn’t anyone that could be a great fantasy player for you. I could do this all day, but you essentially get the point. A great fantasy offense doesn’t always translate to actual success in the NFL. Don’t be so quick to dismiss the prospect of taking a guy from a bad team, more times than not you may have found yourself something.

Before I get too far off track, today I will be taking a look at the top five offenses that you should be buying stock in this season.

(1) Green Bay Packers

 

Okay so remember when I said Green Bay flopped in fantasy last year? Well they did. However that is in the past, it’s a new year and this offense will be bolstered by the return of the key player in the offense, Jordy Nelson. In 2014 when this offense was healthy you could make the argument that this was the #1 fantasy offense, and it wasn’t even close. Aaron Rodgers was a top-3 quarterback, Nelson was a top-3 receiver, Randall Cobb was a top-15 receiver, and Eddie Lacy was a top-10 running back.

This year, Nelson is healthy again, which slides Cobb back to his natural spot as the slot receiver. It also lightens the box for a slimmer Lacy, who is also in a contract year. Oh, and Rodgers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the game. It’ll cost you high value picks, but the rate of return should be very worthwhile for you. Invest with confidence in the Packers offense.

(2) Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Pittsburgh has it all on offense, even without Martavis Bryant as he serves a one-year suspension. Antonio Brown is flat-out the best receiver in football, and given the way the rules are in the secondary is almost impossible to cover. He’s the number one overall player regardless of the format you play. Ben Roethlisberger can put up some serious numbers in the passing game, he’ll feed Brown with consistency and will find the other receivers for big plays. Sammie Coates is being tabbed as a breakout player this year, and he should slide right into the Bryant role opposite Brown on offense.

The running backs are fantastic here as well. Le’Veon Bell is serving a three-game suspension but once he returns will be a top-5 running back if healthy. DeAngelo Williams is the backup and has found the fountain of youth in Pittsburgh. Williams will fill in nicely for Bell during the suspension and in the case of an injury. Unless Big Ben goes down, this offense will be humming all year long.

(3) Carolina Panthers

The reigning MVP Cam Newton put up insane numbers last season, and from the looks of it finally had things click in the passing game. Newton’s running ability makes this rushing attack lethal and aids whoever is in the backfield with him. Jonathan Stewart is currently the starter and had a nice season prior to his late season injury. Cameron Artis-Payne is the guy to target late in a draft, or in free agency later this year if you want in on this running game.

The passing attack is where the big improvement was last year. Carolina gets its top receiver Kelvin Benjamin back from an injury, and adds another dimension to this offense. Tight end Greg Olsen was Mr. Reliable for the Panthers and will be a top-5 option at his position. Devin Funchess is having an amazing training camp and is a guy to target in the middle-to-late stages of the draft.

(4) Arizona Cardinals

This is the most aggressive offense in football, as head coach Bruce Arians is always looking to push the ball down the field. That is good news for us in fantasy. Quarterback Carson Palmer is getting up there in age and has some injury concerns, but when he is healthy will put up gaudy passing numbers. John Brown, Michael Floyd, and Larry Fitzgerald all had solid fantasy seasons last year and are primed to replicate those performances.

The x-factor for this offense and the guy that has dominated the preseason talk about the Cardinals is second-year running back David Johnson. This guy is a home run hitter and can score any time he touches the ball. Johnson is electric in the passing game, which will give him a high scoring floor in compliment with his rushing ability. Again, this all hinges on the health of Palmer, but you can’t deny the production when this offense is running on all cylinders.

(5) Seattle Seahawks

 

This one comes with a bit of a clarification. The numbers this offense put up last season were ridiculous in terms of volume, but even more so in terms of efficiency. The touchdown-to-attempts ratio was incredibly low compared to the rest of the league, so lets temper expectations a bit. That being said, Russell Wilson is the engine that makes this offense go. He is a magician in the pocket and is able to make impossible plays happen on the run. This is where that touchdown-to-attempts ratio comes into play. Wilson makes something out of nothing regularly and when he throws off of scrambling he will make defenses pay dearly for not keeping discipline. That means potentially big plays for Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockette (another breakout candidate for this season).

The running game will be an interesting area to watch. Thomas Rawls looked like “Beast Mode-lite” until he went down with a season-ending ankle injury. He has yet to do anything this preseason, but in his absence, Christine Michael has looked more than capable of filling the void should Rawls stumble out of the gates.

If there is one guy to avoid here, its tight end Jimmy Graham, who is returning from a patellar tear. This is one of the most difficult injuries to come back from, and even if he does, Graham didn’t look like a good fit in this offense.

 

 

Tomorrow I’ll be looking at the limited player offenses, and some more breakout players to target. Join in the conversation in the comments section or on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.