Well folks, I’m powering through this post today. Unfortunately it has been a busy week for me, so I can’t really get cute and wordy today. The all-important third week of the preseason starts tonight. It will be the final look at the starters in what is essentially considered the dress rehearsal for Week 1. What a perfect reason to continue my NFL season previews with a look at the AFC East (finally!). The main storyline is Tom Brady’s four game suspension, and what the rest of this division does with the opportunity to gain ahead of the Patriots. Do I think the suspension puts this division up for grabs? Not really, but it should make things a little more interesting so let’s dive right in a see what this division will look like.

 

New England Patriots

I’m not going to lie, I really don’t think it matters that Brady is suspended this year. I feel the same way this year that I did last year when he was originally suspended. The only way the Pats don’t win this division is if they go 0-4 and suffer a couple key injuries before Brady gets back. They upgraded the offense this offseason by trading for tight end Martellus Bennett, which signals a return to the two-tight end offense that dominated defenses a few years ago. When Brady gets back, watch out. He will be playing with that chip on his shoulder yet again this year. I guess we’ll have to call this season the “Gronk You Tour Part 2” which starts in Cleveland against the Browns.

Defensively for the Pats it is the same story as the last few seasons. They may struggle at times in the early part of the season, but as the year progresses they’ll become a tough unit to beat. It’s the Belicheck way. The guy is always a step ahead of opposing coaches. This defense will certainly miss linebacker Chandler Jones, but if there is any team that can get away with trading away a stud player, it’s the Patriots.

The key part of the schedule is the four games without Brady. They likely lose the opener against Arizona, but they follow that up by playing two of their division rivals (Dolphins and Bills) before Brady’s return in Week 5. Brady will come back and likely win this division handily.

New York Jets

The Jets look to build on last season’s surprise 10-6 record. They blew a playoff berth in the end but it’s a new year. It took a while but the Jets finally brought back quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, rather than take three steps back by starting Geno Smith. With Fitzpatrick back in the fold, this offense looks ready to roll. Chris Ivory may be gone, but the addition of Matt Forte at running back gives this offense another dimension.

New York should be solid once again on the defensive end despite the losses of cornerback Antonio Cromartie and some of their depth. However they sport one of the best defensive lines in football and still have Derrelle Revis, which should give head coach Todd Bowles plenty of firepower to work with in his 3-4 scheme.

I would feel a lot better about the Jets chances to win this division if they played the Patriots during the Brady suspension. Unfortunately, they play them twice in the second half of the season. Even worse, they play the Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Steelers in a brutal stretch of games early in the season. I like this roster, but the schedule could be what keeps this team out of the playoffs again.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills sport one of the most intriguing offenses this season. I say that because I am a big fan of quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He has the potential to be a special player now that he’s cemented himself as the quarterback of the future in Buffalo. Taylor and running back Lesean McCoy could be lethal if the Bills consider using the pistol offense that Greg Roman ran in San Francisco. The receiving core could be in trouble if Sammy Watkins has complications in his surgically repaired foot after suffering a Jones fracture. Between Taylor, McCoy, and Watkins this offense is an injury or two away from being in serious trouble.

Rex Ryan’s only real addition on the defensive side of the ball was bringing in his brother Rob to be the defensive coordinator. I say that because their first and second round picks, defensive end Shaq Lawson and linebacker Reggie Ragland, are both out for the season. This defense lost defensive end Mario Williams and cornerback Leodis McKelvin to free agency as well. The Ryan brothers will have to get extremely creative to mask some of their losses.

Much like the Jets, the Bills have an important but difficult stretch in the beginning of the season. Buffalo has two division games early in the season against the Jets and Patriots with a game against the Cardinals sandwiched in between. If the Bills stumble in this stretch, they could kiss the division goodbye.

Miami Dolphins

Miami enters this season with a new head coach after a season of turmoil last year following the midseason firing of Joe Philbin. Adam Gase is now at the helm and his hoping to turn this offense into a force in this division. They lost running back Lamar Miller in free agency, which they may live to regret after he was comically misused last season. This offense will have to rely on a quick passing game, meaning quarterback Ryan Tannehill is under the microscope. He’s been hyped as a breakout player in previous season, and if he can finally live up to the hype this offense has some serious potential. Receiver Jarvis Landry turned into Mr. Reliable for the Dolphins. Miami is also hoping that second-year receiver DeVante Parker becomes a dynamic weapon.

The Dolphins defense underwent a facelift this offseason. They key losses include defensive end Olivier Vernon and cornerback Brent Grimes. Miami traded for cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Kiko Alonso after both went through disappointing seasons in Philadelphia last year. It’s a risky bet they are taking on the pair of former Eagles. The Dolphins also brought in defensive end Mario Williams to fill the void left by the loss of Vernon. This unit is in a precarious position, and the uncertainty lurks in the acquisitions to fill some pretty hefty losses.

The schedule for Miami is interesting. Opening with Seattle is less than ideal, but there is not a stretch of games where the Dolphins play a bunch of elite teams. If they can stay under the radar and in the mix, playing all three division foes at the end of the season could be the deciding factor for this division. That being said, I’m not too confident that happens due to the potential issues on defense and a learning curve on offense.

 

Next week I’ll jump back into the NFL previews with a look at the NFC South. Tomorrow is Friday, which means another edition of the Weekend Viewer Guide. Keep the conversation going in the comments or send me your thoughts on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.