The final full week of August means it is draft week for many of you out there playing fantasy football (me too!). In my experience, a title isn’t won with your first three picks, but with the subsequent picks that follow. It’s all about finding a diamond in the rough in the middle-to-late stages of the draft and avoiding fool’s gold.

A perfect example of this came last year in a very competitive keeper league that I’m in with a bunch of my friends. It was the ninth round and I was looking for a running back to be a flex option or a backup to Eddie Lacy and Justin Forsett (boy did that go so wrong for me last year). I had the choice between two teammates who were both suffering from a minor injury and there had yet to be a clear decision about the starter. Luckily, I saw a tweet from the fantasy guru himself, John Hansen, who had talked to one of the veterans on the team and gave him the inside scoop at the position. With confidence I put my pick in, but little did I know at the time I just selected a top-three running back. That was Devonta Freeman from the Falcons, and the guy after me took Tevin Coleman, Freeman’s backup.

It’s those little things in fantasy that can steer you towards a potential steal in the draft. Admittedly, I got extremely lucky with the way that Freeman panned out for me last year. That being said I still picked the right guy regardless.

So now that I’ve tooted my own horn a little bit I’m going to give you three guys to keep an eye on in your draft, and three guys to stay far away from.

Target: Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants (Average Draft Position – 83)

I’m really going out on a limb on this one. Normally I’m not a big fan of drafting rookies, but it’s not often you see a guy in this situation. A second round pick out of Oklahoma currently looks like he’ll be the #2 receiver in New York opposite Odell Beckham Jr. He has reportedly been turning heading in training camp. Eli Manning has thrown for over 4000 yards in each of the last two seasons, so there is a lot of potential here for Shepard, especially in PPR.

Avoid: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (ADP – 54)

It pains me to write this after a solid season last year, but be weary of Larry Fitzgerald. He is currently dealing with an MCL sprain, which could hamper his production. Add to the mix the injury history of his quarterback, Carson Palmer, and you begin to see a few red flags this high in the draft. Arizona’s offense was prolific at times last season. This year, either grab John Brown or Michael Floyd if you’re interested in a receiving option in Arizona.

Target: Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns (ADP – 94)

Gary Barnidge literally came out of nowhere last season and turned into one of the most productive fantasy options at tight end. Now I know that it doesn’t sound like a sexy option but this guy can play. Even better? It didn’t matter who was at quarterback last season (which is good since RGIII likely won’t play every game given his history).

Avoid: Baltimore RBs (Forsett, Allen, West, Dixon) (ADP below 97)

There is zero clarity as to who will be starting, and what the carries split will ultimately look like. This has the makings of a nightmarish running back by committee at the moment. I’m avoiding this situation entirely in the draft and early portions of the season. We need more information, and the risk of picking the wrong guy is way too high. Let someone else in your league step on this potential landmine.

Target: Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders (ADP – 80)

Amari Cooper may have led the Raiders in receiving yard last season, but it was Crabtree who led them in targets, catches, and receiving TDs. He may be mediocre in the eyes of Richard Sherman, but I’ll gladly take him for my fantasy team as a WR3/Flex with upside as a potential WR2 if he replicates last season’s numbers (85 catches/922 yards/9 TDs).

Avoid: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills (ADP – 30)

Remember earlier when I said you don’t win a championship with your first three picks? Well you certainly can prevent yourself from winning one by missing with one of those top three picks. Sammy Watkins is recovering from a Jones fracture in his foot, but his ADP remains way too high to take a risk he remains healthy. He isn’t damaged goods, but he is one of a few injury risks that are a part of this offense. Even if healthy, he’s one bad play away from E.J. Manuel stepping in at quarterback.

I’ll be doing some more fantasy football prep on Thursday. Tomorrow I’ll be previewing the AFC East in part four of my 2016 NFL preview. Keep the conversation going in the comments section or send me your thoughts on social media. Follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney and go like the Shooting the Moon page on Facebook.