It is that time of year again football fans. Training camps are open and preseason games are just around the corner. Just as the players and teams are preparing for the long season ahead, so are the fantasy football players. We scour through rankings, predictions, and team reports on a daily basis in order for our own shot at glory.

Fantasy football at its core is a tediously simple game, but as the saying goes, knowledge is power. This is the first fantasy post of the season so I will go over some of the basics of putting together a contender for your own league. We all have to start somewhere, so here is a list of five tips you need to going into draft day.

 

1) Preseason Rankings Can Be Deceiving

Every season brings with it a cavalcade of fantasy experts and their well researched and prepared rankings. While these are a pretty decent indicator of where the players will ultimately end up, often times there are giant swings and misses that are bound to happen. Injuries are unpredictable and will be the main reason a top-20 player fails to make the grade. Add to that the prospects of one of those guys having a down year, and you can see there is clearly room for error by even the best fantasy analysts.

Look at the preseason rankings from last year (I’m using ESPN’s consensus top 300, for the record this is standard scoring and not PPR) and you will see a few names that will make you cringe. Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, and CJ Anderson burned many fantasy owners who invested high value picks on them with a combination of injuries and poor performances. Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, and Marshawn Lynch all saw their seasons cut short due to injuries. For the record, all six were ranked in the top ten last season.

Just because you snagged a top ranked player doesn’t always mean that is what you get. Buyers beware and always have a plan B. Often times; you are going to need it.

 

2) The Waiver Wire is Your Best Friend

Speaking of plan B, the waiver wire is likely where you will find the player to fit that bill. Success on Sundays will depend on your diligence on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The previous week’s breakout star can be a solid addition for the following week and beyond. Fantasy owners who picked up Devonta Freeman and David Johnson last season will be the first ones to attest to that. Hell, Tim Hightower likely won people fantasy championships after the Saints signed him off of his couch late last season (he was the 2nd best running back in the fantasy playoffs).

Now that is not to say that every week you should be picking up Joe Schmo and inserting him into your lineup. Most leagues incorporate rules for the waiver wire that designate which player gets the first crack at the waiver pool. However, you should always be mindful of who’s available, which is why most sites have a “Watch List” tool in order to keep track of these guys. Waiver priority is one of your most valuable assets during the season. Carefully utilizing that asset is the difference between snagging that midseason sleeper and having to resort to a “hit or miss” player.

 

3) Find Value Wherever You Can

Fantasy football is ultimately like playing the stock market. There is a quantitative aspect that the fantasy elite have turned to in recent years in order to more accurately predict the outcomes. So what does that mean for the fantasy novice? Simply put, you will need to do your homework.

Draft day is the first opportunity to strike gold. Understanding where value can be found is paramount to your success. You only have 16-20 picks in a draft so you have to maximize each one. Taking a late flier on someone you like is okay when the opportunity is there late but in order to do so you need a solid base to take those risks.

This brings me to the position that you will a couple of guys in your league reach on every year: quarterback. While it is nice to have Aaron Rodgers as your QB1, the price tag to get him can often be steep when you look at where you can grab other top ten quarterbacks in the draft. For example, last season in PPR leagues Alex Smith outscored Rob Gronkowski. Gronk was a 1^st or 2^nd round pick, whereas Smith went undrafted and is considered a backup in fantasy leagues. Blake Bortles and Derek Carr finished inside and just outside the top ten respectively. Both were either drafted in the waning rounds or went undrafted in most leagues.

 

4) The Receiving Revolution is Upon Us

PPR leagues likely have already noticed this shift, but this is the first season where the standard scoring leagues have caught up. Wide receivers are taking over as the dominant fantasy players. The NFL is a pass happy league especially considering the rule changes making it tougher for defenses to slow down these high-octane passing attacks.

While there are only a handful of elite level running backs, they take a ton of punishment on a week to week basis making them a bit riskier to rely on to be healthy. Since there are only a few of these elite level backs in the league, more teams have resorted to the dreaded “running back by committee” which the bane of a fantasy owners existence.

Receivers tend to be more reliable and safer bets to produce week in and week out. Standard scoring bites into their value a bit, but in PPR leagues guys like Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., and Julio Jones are the golden geese.

 

5) The Numbers Game

This bit of advice birthed from a strategy discussed by ESPN’s Matthew Berry in his annual Draft Day Manifesto. Ultimately, this is the best way to understand how to build a fantasy football team. I mentioned before that fantasy football is a bit like the stock market. It is slightly advanced method of prepping for the season and takes a good amount of legwork to perfect. If you put in the work, you can give yourself a great chance to succeed every week.

Every week brings a simple challenge; outscore your opponent (cue the “thanks captain obvious”). Whether it is a standard scoring or PPR variant league there is an optimal number you want your team to reach that can assure a chance of victory. In some leagues breaking 100 points is a nice feather in your cap but won’t always mean a win. The nice thing about being in the same league year to year is having the archived scores to help determine the optimal number to win (finding the average of winning scores is a good barometer).

For the sake of time let’s just assume you don’t have that information so here’s a rough estimate of what an optimal score would be in a few different leagues:

      10 Team Standard – 120 points                10 Team Full PPR – 150 points

      12 Team Standard – 100 points                 12 Team Full PPR – 130 points

So now that we have these numbers in mind, the next step is to know what you’re going to need to reach this number. Remember, this is just an ideal benchmark to be competitive. Sometimes you’ll need some luck to win if you miss the mark on a particular week or if you find yourself in a shootout.

Position-wise the mindset is to grab players that will consistently produce. Your top two players (RB1, WR1, or even a WR2) should always score at least 18+ points on a weekly basis. Quarterbacks need about 15+ points a week. After that your second and third tier players need to hit double digits in order to make this strategy work. Since these second and third tier players aren’t “studs” every week, this means playing the matchups and having a deep bench.

You also may have noticed by now I haven’t mentioned defenses or kickers once in this article. That is for good reason. These two positions are easily replaceable, and there are always a few matchups to exploit. Streaming these positions week to week ensures you keep your valuable bench spots reserved for receivers, running backs, and even a second tight end to keep our optimal score attainable.

Another point that can’t be overlooked is the schedule. Bye weeks can be a roadblock to reaching your scoring goal. Plan for bye weeks accordingly.

This strategy won’t guarantee success but it will keep your team competitive week in and week out. Fantasy football is often a war of attrition, you will lose games but understanding how much you need to score and how to do so will keep you in the playoff hunt.

        I got a little serious there for a while, but just remember this is supposed to be fun. Bragging rights are a great to have with a group of friends so the stakes are somewhat high. This should be a good start to your preparation for anyone new to the game.

        Keep the conversation going in the comments section and follow me on Twitter @thereal_jmooney. Send your questions to me and I will possibly feature it in my first fantasy football mailbag next week. Also be on the look out for the first episode of the Reality of Fantasy podcast later this month.